What will London’s economy and labour market look like in 2007-2014? (Paul Bivand, CESI)
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What will London’s economy and labour
market and look like in 2014-2020?
Paul BivandInclusion
Will positive trends continue?
Gaps have been closing
And for disadvantaged groups
May
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7
May
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8
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9
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0
May
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1
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20
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London employment rateLone parent BAMEDisabled
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0
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2-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
London employment rateLone parent BAMEDisabled
London’s gaps in JSA off-flows have closed
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
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130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
London UK
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
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Jul-0
8
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Jul-0
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Jan-
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2
Jan-
13-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
London Gap
Changing employmentChange in London's sectors over past couple of decades
0
50
100
150
200
250
Manufacturing,Constructionand Utilities
Wholesale,Retail,Transport andStorage
Public admin,education andhealth
Professional,real estate andbusinessservices
Accomodation,Entertainment,Recreation andOther services
Information,Communication, Financial andInsurance
… changing structure demands higher qualifications
8% have no qualifications
48% have degrees (32% in UK)
Jobs to 2020 People servicesCreative Digital Science & Technology
Greater London Inner London East London Newham
Increase Increase Increase IncreaseCode 2nd Tier Description Total % Total % Total % Total %
1.2 Nursing & medical Subjects/Vocations 23,786 13% 8,968 14% 3,952 14% 618 13%
13.1 Teaching and Lecturing 21,481 12% 8,524 13% 3,577 13% 504 12%15.4 Marketing and Sales 5,247 12% 2,704 13% 679 11% 76 8%
1.3 Health and Social Care 11,116 11% 4,741 12% 1,702 10% 219 9%
1.5 Child Development and Well Being 32,098 11% 13,612 12% 5,297 11% 760 10%
5.3 Urban, Rural and Regional Planning 14,959 11% 8,267 13% 1,877 9% 188 6%11.2 Sociology and Social Policy 4,308 10% 1,934 12% 640 10% 83 8%
9.3 Media and Communication 13,556 10% 7,897 12% 1,916 9% 188 7%1.1 Medicine and Dentistry 5,153 9% 2,452 11% 806 9% 98 7%2.1 Science 5,038 8% 2,518 10% 688 7% 96 6%1.4 Public Services 3,296 8% 1,278 8% 478 7% 47 4%4.1 Engineering 4,699 8% 2,650 11% 560 6% 64 4%
14.1 Foundations for Learning and Life 1,006 7% 427 8% 155 7% 20 5%15.5 Law and Legal Services 2,182 6% 1,593 9% 270 6% 17 3%8.1 Sport, Leisure and Recreation 2,566 6% 1,529 8% 351 5% 3 0%
14.2 Preparation for Work 3,691 6% 1,940 7% 493 5% 61 3%15.1 Accounting and Finance 9,127 5% 6,478 9% 956 4% 43 1%9.1 Performing Arts 2,679 5% 1,778 8% 394 5% 20 2%9.2 Crafts, Creative Arts, and Design 8,298 5% 5,454 8% 1,162 4% 101 3%6.1 ICT Practitioners 5,663 5% 3,218 7% 594 3% 108 4%
15.3 Business Management 25,161 4% 16,540 7% 2,682 3% 215 2%7.1 Retailing and Wholesaling 9,059 4% 5,649 7% 1,257 4% 202 3%
12.2 Other Languages, Literature and Culture 1,831 4% 1,141 6% 292 4% 38 3%
7.4 Hospitality and Catering 2,377 3% 1,305 4% 265 2% 21 1%
4.2 Manufacturing Technologies 11,173 3% 6,736 6% 834 2% 121 1%8.2 Travel and Tourism 1,914 3% 1,133 5% 257 3% 35 2%
4.3 Transportation Operations/Maintenance 1,589 3% 1,077 5% 77 1% 5 0%
6.2 ICT for Users 1,469 2% 1,266 4% 79 1% -16 -1%3.2 Horticulture and Forestry 79 1% 84 2% 15 1% 5 4%
15.2 Administration 136 0% 704 3% -59 -1% -23 -2%5.2 Building and Construction -6,469 -4% -1,750 -4% -1,319 -4% -218 -4%
The supply-side challenge ...
1. Female employment: childcare and part-time jobs
Employment rate of women with dependent children
Note: Head of family or spouse only, includes full-time students
Source: Labour Force Survey, Oct-Dec, 2007-2011
74.2 71.3
86.9
58.3
47.6
73.165.7
90.0
72.4
57.3
Not parents - Men Not parents -Women
Couple parents -Men
Couple parents -Women
Lone parents - All
London Rest of UK
2. Continue to improve schools
London is ahead on % attaining 5 A-C GCSEs but varies by income
3. Improve Further Education
Curriculum should focus on subject sector areas that offer quantity (the scale of jobs) and growth (net growth in jobs) opportunities:– Health and Social Care– Marketing and Sales– Building and Construction– Business Management– Accounting and Finance– Manufacturing Technologies; and– Child Development and Well Being
Employers, continue to cite various skills shortages – the most common being management and leadership skills; and ICT and communication skills.
Advice to a London FE College:
4. Mobility: one and many labour markets
Greater London 3.7 million jobs
Inner London 1.5 million jobs
East London 0.6 million jobs
Newham 91 thousand jobs
Greater London 72,000
vacancies
Inner London 31,000
vacancies
East London 14,000
vacancies
Newham 5,000 vacancies
5. Making Work Pay in London
impact of welfare reform
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Banking, finance & insurance
Transport & communication
Manufacturing
Public admin., education & health
Construction
Other services
Distribution, hotels & restaurants
London UK
Percent of those in work earning below the living wage by industry (2012)
6. Dynamic or insecure?
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
London UK
Movers between unemployment and low pay as a proportion of the workforce
7. Changing employment patterns of mothers
Couple Mother
Lone Mother
Couple Mother
Lone Mother
Couple Mother
Lone Mother
Couple Mother
Lone Mother
Couple Mother
Lone Mother
Level 4 + Level 4 + Level 3 Level 3 Level 2 Level 2 Level 1 Level 1 None None
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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80%
90%
Full Time Part Time Mini
Welfare ReformSituation of (claimants) on the whole shall not be made reallyor apparently so eligible as the situation of the independent labourer of the lowest classRoyal Commission on the Poor Laws, 1834
Or, in modern rephrasingMaking Work PayBut, not just money, also conditionality
Impacts of welfare reformMany reports – huge impactsParticularly disabled peopleBut employment rates rising for
disadvantagedHowever
– labour markets in Outer London more ‘normal for UK’
– higher part-time working– higher proportions of jobs taken by lower-
qualified
Tasks for 2014-20Mitigating impacts of welfare reformHelping people manage work with
personal circumstancesLabour mobilityLondon’s success built by migration –
in and out– Internal UK– EU– International non-EU