What we know or rather don't know about the population size in Poland after the latest census
23
BSPS Conference 2015 – the University of Leeds, 7-9 September 2015 Joanna Dybowska PIN – Instytut Śląski w Opolu
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Transcript of What we know or rather don't know about the population size in Poland after the latest census
BSPS Conference 2015 – the University of Leeds, 7-9 September 2015
Joanna Dybowska
PIN – Instytut Śląski w Opolu
• explaining the meaning of the category „de facto”
population and resident population used by Central
Statistical Office;
• the results of the latest census concerning the counted
population number compared to the previous censuses;
• setting the not registered migration.
Central Statistical Office GUS
Population de facto P de facto
Resident population R p
Population registered for permanent stay P ps
Temporarily present people T pp
Temporarily absent people T ap
this is population registered for permanent stay in a given area
(in an administrative unit)
- without people absent for at least 3 months
(temporarily registered in another administrative unit of the country)
+ people who arrived from another administrative unit (there registered for permanent stay) staying temporarily for at least 3 months
People staying abroad regardless of the length of stay are included
in the number of permanent population and population de facto, too.
P ps = Citizens ps + Foreigners ps
for a country or
an administrative unit
P ps = The sum of P de facto
for the whole country in all administrative units
P de facto = P ps – T ap (3 m) + T pp (3 m)
(citizens + foreigners)
The category of P de facto allows us to present the influence
of internal migrations on the population number, assuming
that these migrations are registered.
• Failures in correct registering internal migrations disturb the
information concerning the population number in individual
administrative units, but they don’t have any influence on the
total population number of the whole country.
• Failures in registering international migration disturb the
information concerning the population number in individual
administrative units as well as in the whole country.
25
19 22
47
35
30
19 17 20 21
32
17
21
31
51
73
88
69
55 55
66
786,09
1,000
1,450
1,950
2,270 2,210
2100
2000 2017.5
2130 2196
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Pe
rson
s tem
po
rary abse
nt d
ue
to d
ep
arture
abro
ad e
stimate
d b
y GU
S
thousand
Emig
rati
on
fo
r p
erm
ane
nt
resi
de
nce
; P
ers
on
s st
em
po
rary
ab
sen
t d
ue
to
d
ep
artu
re a
bro
ad r
egi
ste
red
thousand
Years
Emigration for permanent residence registered Persons temporary absent due to departure abroad registered Persons temporary absent due to departure abroad estimated by GUS
this is population registered for permanent stay
- without people absent for at least 12 months
regardless of the place of stay in the country or abroad,
+ people who arrived (from the country or from abroad)
staying for at least 12 months
R p = P ps – T ap (12 m) + T pp (12 m)
• In Poland for country and local needs is counted and
published the number of de facto population.
• Poland as a EU country is obliged to calculate the resident
population which is recommended in international
comparisons in order to avoid double counting in EU
members.
This year on the website of GUS was published
information concerning the number of resident population
on 31 December in the years 2009 - 2013,
the number for 2011 was
38,063,792 people
Population for permanent stay 38,511,825
Temporarily absent people due to international migration (3 m) 2,017,501
of which long term migrants (12 m) 1,564,580
Immigrants (3 m) 40,097
of which long term immigrants (12 m) 27,215
Resident population 36,974,460
Population for permanent stay 38,230,080
Temporarily absent people due to international migration (3 m) 786,085
of which long term migrants (12 m) 626,190
Immigrants (3 m) 34,072
of which long term immigrants (12 m) 22,710
Resident population 37,626,600
The officially published size of resident population was 37,620,085
According to the results of 2002 and 2011
censuses and elements of vital statistics one can
say that there are no grounds for the number
of resident population in Poland
above 38 million people
The number of resident population in Poland
in 2011, in my opinion, was rather about 37 million
people than above 38 million people
• In the years between the censuses all together natural change and
net international migration were generating population
decrease.
• The amount of Polish citizens temporarily staying abroad (at least
12 months) has increased from 626 thousand people to 1 million
565 thousand people.
• The number of long-term immigrants has increased from 23
thousand people to 27 thousand people only.
• The number of long term immigrants is too small to
compensate for the number of Polish citizens staying abroad!
Population number in Poland 2004-2013.
Annual averages of balancing de facto population and estimated population
according to Labour Market Survey
36,200
36,400
36,600
36,800
37,000
37,200
37,400
37,600
37,800
38,000
38,200
38,400
38,600
38,800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
tho
usan
d
Years P de facto P Ims
P de facto
P Ims
Emigration under the
pretext of a tourist trip
Not coming back and
staying abroad
Labour migration
(temporal migration)
Opening job markets in
EU countries for the new
members
since the second half of
1970s.
after announcing the martial
law on 13 December 1981.
after the political
transformation since 1989.
after acceding to the EU
since 1 May 2004.
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
1978 - 1988 1988 - 2002 2002 - 2011
-262.5
-218.7
-122.4 -56.9
-395.9
320.8
Ne
t m
igra
tio
n
Years
Registered Unregisteredthousand
-950
-800
-650
-500
-350
-200
-50
100
250
1978 - 1988 1988 - 2002 2002 - 2011
-319.4
-614.6
198
-910.9
-636
-459.7
Net
mig
rati
on
Years
P de facto R pthousand
Poland and Opole Silesia -
total population
Poland and Opole Silesia
- % total population
1.56 1.64
3.89
5.3
9.9
10.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1988 (SERP) 2002 (NSP) 2011 (NSP)
% t
ota
l p
op
ula
tio
n
Years Poland Opole Silesia
%
590.7 626.2
1500
53.9 105.2 107
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1988 (SERP) 2002 (NSP) 2011 (NSP)
Po
pu
lati
on
Years Poland Opole Silesia
thousand
35.0
35.2
35.4
35.6
35.8
36.0
36.2
36.4
36.6
36.8
37.0
37.2
37.4
37.6
37.8
38.0
38.2
38.4
38.6
38.8
39.0
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Po
pu
lati
on
in
Po
lan
d
Years official data own calculation
milion
Own calculation
Official data
Category of „de facto” population is not proper to illustrate
population size in Poland.
A significant amount of Polish citizens is temporarily
staying abroad.
Category of „de facto” population includes all of them.
The majority of them are residents of destination country.
„De facto” population size in Poland is overestimated to
veritable population size.
Resident population size published by GUS is questionable.
