WHAT SHOULD A POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND USE LOOK LIKE? Chris Pollock Aberystwyth...

WHAT SHOULD A POLICY WHAT SHOULD A POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLEFRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE

LAND USE LOOK LIKE?LAND USE LOOK LIKE?

Chris PollockChris PollockAberystwyth University and ACREAberystwyth University and ACRE

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?

• Increased pressure on land:Increased pressure on land:– PopulationPopulation– DietDiet– Climate ChangeClimate Change– Renewable energyRenewable energy

• Growing awareness of importance of Growing awareness of importance of ecosystem servicesecosystem services

• In the UK and some other countries, this is the In the UK and some other countries, this is the same land!same land!

Biod

iver

sity

Biod

iver

sity

10,000BC10,000BC 1900 AD1900 AD TodayToday

Natural and semi-natural populationsNatural and semi-natural populations

““Unplanned” populations (weeds etcUnplanned” populations (weeds etc)

““Planned” populations (crops etc)Planned” populations (crops etc)

CHANGES IN BIODIVERSITY ATTRIBUTABLE TOCHANGES IN BIODIVERSITY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURETHE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE

Redrawn from Edwards & Hilbeck, 2001

Small-scale Small-scale Mixed farmingMixed farming

Large-scaleLarge-scaleSpecialist farmingSpecialist farming

The big dilemma. Can we The big dilemma. Can we farm sustainably and feed farm sustainably and feed

everyone?everyone?

POTENTIAL RISKSPOTENTIAL RISKS

• Rising Prices (*)Rising Prices (*)• Increased price volatility (**)Increased price volatility (**)• Reduced security of supply (***)Reduced security of supply (***)• Possible safety implications (****)Possible safety implications (****)• Reduction in consumer choice (????)Reduction in consumer choice (????)• Increased “footprint” of agriculture (*****)Increased “footprint” of agriculture (*****)

GETTING THE BALANCE RIGHTGETTING THE BALANCE RIGHT

• Requires a systems approach to compare Requires a systems approach to compare (cost and value) the range of inputs and (cost and value) the range of inputs and outputs from different land usesoutputs from different land uses

• This is informed by an ecosystem approach This is informed by an ecosystem approach but recognises economic and social drivers but recognises economic and social drivers and the dependence upon land managersand the dependence upon land managers

• The techniques to do this do not yet exist The techniques to do this do not yet exist across the full range of inputs and outputsacross the full range of inputs and outputs

Do we have a policy framework Do we have a policy framework that will encourage systems-that will encourage systems-

based approaches to sustainable based approaches to sustainable land management?land management?

CURRENT EU POLICYCURRENT EU POLICY• Addresses problems piecemeal, little Addresses problems piecemeal, little

recognition of system approachrecognition of system approach• Tends to address negatives without Tends to address negatives without

valuing positivesvaluing positives• Not always evidence-basedNot always evidence-based• No scenario-based planningNo scenario-based planning

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FARM-THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE FARM-SCALE TRIALS OF HT CROPSSCALE TRIALS OF HT CROPS

• Evidence-based comparison of farming Evidence-based comparison of farming systemssystems

• Formal null hypothesisFormal null hypothesis• Multi-site, multi-crop comparisons of impact Multi-site, multi-crop comparisons of impact

of intensive crop production on key elements of intensive crop production on key elements of biodiversity that support the non-farmed of biodiversity that support the non-farmed food chain food chain

Farm Scale Evaluations of GMHT Crops

PCO axis 1

-0.5 0 0.5

PC

O A

xis

2

-0.25

0.0

0.25

58% variance a/c

27%

var

ianc

e a/

c

decreasing biodiversity

increasing biodiversity

wintercrops

springcrops

-0.5

PCO axis 1

-0.5 0 0.5

PC

O A

xis

2

-0.25

0.0

0.25

58% variance a/c

27%

var

ianc

e a/

c



wintercrops

springcrops

-0.5

PCO axis 1

-0.5 0 0.5

PC

O A

xis

2

-0.25

0.0

0.25

58% variance a/c

27%

var

ianc

e a/

c



wintercrops

springcrops

-0.5

SOSRWOSRMaizeBeet

Treatment Crop

Conventional

GMHT

SOSRWOSRMaizeBeet

Treatment Crop

Conventional

GMHTComparing cropsComparing crops

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

• ““Best” and “worst” crops were both Best” and “worst” crops were both conventionalconventional

• Difference between crops was bigger than Difference between crops was bigger than the difference between conventional and HT the difference between conventional and HT within cropswithin crops

• All the differences were based on differences All the differences were based on differences in “weed” populations (competition for in “weed” populations (competition for sunshine).sunshine).

REGULATORY ISSUES RAISED BY ACREREGULATORY ISSUES RAISED BY ACREAFTER THE FSEAFTER THE FSE

• Need to be able to balance risk and benefitNeed to be able to balance risk and benefit• Need to be able to compare GM with Need to be able to compare GM with

conventional systems in order to select the conventional systems in order to select the best best

• Need to have a view on the appropriate Need to have a view on the appropriate balance between production and balance between production and environmental impact across ALL agricultural environmental impact across ALL agricultural systemssystems

EVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF CHANGEEVIDENCE IN SUPPORT OF CHANGE

• Canadians assess novelty rather than Canadians assess novelty rather than concentrating on technologyconcentrating on technology

• Norwegians include benefits of GMOsNorwegians include benefits of GMOs• Experts briefed ACRE on developing Experts briefed ACRE on developing

methodolgies that could be usedmethodolgies that could be used• UK and EU Sustainability targets emphasise UK and EU Sustainability targets emphasise

the need to consider balance of benefits and the need to consider balance of benefits and disbenefitsdisbenefits

PRINCIPLESPRINCIPLES

• Take account of benefits as well as risksTake account of benefits as well as risks• Be evidence-basedBe evidence-based• Recognise the need to assess impact on a limited scale Recognise the need to assess impact on a limited scale

before widespread usebefore widespread use• Be based on comparison with current crops and Be based on comparison with current crops and

practicespractices• Protect opportunities for innovation by taking into Protect opportunities for innovation by taking into

account the impacts of current practiceaccount the impacts of current practice• Be straightforward to applyBe straightforward to apply• Be sensitive to the competitiveness of UK agricultureBe sensitive to the competitiveness of UK agriculture

WORKED EXAMPLES TO ILLUSTRATE HOW WORKED EXAMPLES TO ILLUSTRATE HOW THIS APPROACH MIGHT BE USEDTHIS APPROACH MIGHT BE USED

1.1. Japanese knotweedJapanese knotweed

2.2. Winter wheatWinter wheat

3.3. Biocontrol of the European corn borer with Biocontrol of the European corn borer with TrichogrammaTrichogramma

4.4. The energy crop MiscanthusThe energy crop Miscanthus

5.5. Bt cottonBt cotton

6.6. Herbicide tolerant amenity grasses developed through GM or Herbicide tolerant amenity grasses developed through GM or conventional meansconventional means

7.7. American MinkAmerican Mink

CSA Bt cotton compared to non-GM cotton (page 1)

BenefitsBenefits Magnitude Magnitude of differenceof difference

Negative ImpactsNegative Impacts Magnitude Magnitude of of

differencedifference

Potential for Potential for MitigationMitigation

Management Management System and System and inputs requiredinputs required

Bt cotton is easier to manage for Bt cotton is easier to manage for farmers as few or no insecticide farmers as few or no insecticide sprays are required and farm sprays are required and farm workers are less likely to be workers are less likely to be exposed to toxic insecticides. Bt exposed to toxic insecticides. Bt cotton gives farmers the cotton gives farmers the opportunity to develop integrated opportunity to develop integrated pest management systems to pest management systems to keep other pests below keep other pests below economically damaging levels. economically damaging levels. Fewer insecticide applications Fewer insecticide applications required than in non-GM cotton.required than in non-GM cotton.

HighHigh Bt cotton provides a continuous high Bt cotton provides a continuous high level of plant resistance, which exerts a level of plant resistance, which exerts a higher selection pressure than sprayed higher selection pressure than sprayed insecticides (resistance management insecticides (resistance management regimes were therefore implemented in regimes were therefore implemented in several countries for Bt cotton at the several countries for Bt cotton at the time of commercialization, see below). time of commercialization, see below). Bt cotton seeds are more expensive. Bt cotton seeds are more expensive. Use of water and fertiliser the same in Use of water and fertiliser the same in both conventional and Bt cotton. Some both conventional and Bt cotton. Some insecticide applications to Bt cotton insecticide applications to Bt cotton can still be required in areas where can still be required in areas where pests other than bollworms cause pests other than bollworms cause economic damage.economic damage.

LowLow

Persistence/Persistence/invasivenessinvasiveness

Cotton does have the potential to Cotton does have the potential to hybridise with feral hybridise with feral Gossypium Gossypium hirsutum hirsutum populations and some wild populations and some wild Gossypium Gossypium relatives in limited relatives in limited geographic locations. Upland cotton is geographic locations. Upland cotton is a poor coloniser.a poor coloniser.

LowLow None requiredNone required

Effects on Effects on environmental environmental goods and goods and servicesservices

– – BiodiversityBiodiversity

More non-target arthropods More non-target arthropods survive in Bt cotton. No chronic survive in Bt cotton. No chronic long-term effects of Bt cotton long-term effects of Bt cotton were observed.were observed.

HighHigh Bt cotton likely to reduce food supply Bt cotton likely to reduce food supply for some specialist natural enemies that for some specialist natural enemies that feed on the target pest more than feed on the target pest more than insecticides do. insecticides do.

LowLow Maintain below Maintain below economic economic

threshold levels threshold levels of pestsof pests

Effects on Effects on environmental environmental goods and goods and services services -Water-Water

The growing of Bt cotton results The growing of Bt cotton results in less synthetic insecticide in less synthetic insecticide entering water courses.entering water courses.

HighHigh NoneNone






Effects on Effects on environmental environmental goods and goods and services services -Soils-Soils

The growing of Bt cotton results The growing of Bt cotton results in less synthetic insecticide in less synthetic insecticide entering soils.entering soils.

HighHigh Bt toxin enters soil with decaying plant Bt toxin enters soil with decaying plant material but no negative effect on soil material but no negative effect on soil organisms known. See latency and organisms known. See latency and cumulative effectscumulative effects


Effects on Effects on environmental environmental goods and goods and services services -Energy Balance-Energy Balance

Latency/ Latency/ cumulative cumulative effectseffects

Incorporation of plant residues after Incorporation of plant residues after harvest introduces Bt toxins into soil. harvest introduces Bt toxins into soil. Cry toxins can adsorb and bind to Cry toxins can adsorb and bind to clays and humic substances in soil clays and humic substances in soil and have been detected in some soils and have been detected in some soils three years after incorporation of plant three years after incorporation of plant biomass. Evolution of C into CObiomass. Evolution of C into CO22

during decomposition has been during decomposition has been reported to be reduced during reported to be reduced during decomposition of Bt cotton compared decomposition of Bt cotton compared to non-Bt cotton. No significant effects to non-Bt cotton. No significant effects on soil organisms of Cry toxins on soil organisms of Cry toxins released into soil have been found. released into soil have been found.


Reversibility of Reversibility of effectseffects

Reversible as long as cropping not Reversible as long as cropping not permitted in regions where permitted in regions where introgression into populations of wild introgression into populations of wild species and feral populations is species and feral populations is possible. possible.

LowLow





Social FactorsSocial Factors Bt cotton is easier to manage for Bt cotton is easier to manage for farmers as few or no insecticide farmers as few or no insecticide sprays are required and farm sprays are required and farm workers are less likely to be workers are less likely to be exposed to toxic insecticides.exposed to toxic insecticides.

HighHigh NoneNone None None RequiredRequired

Economic FactorsEconomic Factors Yield gains and an increase in Yield gains and an increase in yield security have been reported yield security have been reported for Bt cotton, particularly from for Bt cotton, particularly from developing countries.developing countries.

HighHigh The performance of GM crops The performance of GM crops depends heavily on the suitability depends heavily on the suitability of the local varieties into which of the local varieties into which genes are inserted. GM Bt seeds genes are inserted. GM Bt seeds are more expensive for farmers are more expensive for farmers than conventional seeds. These than conventional seeds. These factors combined mean that the factors combined mean that the benefits of this crop may be benefits of this crop may be dependent on region. Yield and dependent on region. Yield and profit reductions relative to non-Bt profit reductions relative to non-Bt hybrids have been reported in hybrids have been reported in some areas.some areas.

LowLow NoneNone


OUTCOMEOUTCOME

Compared to cotton sprayed with insecticides, Bt cotton has Compared to cotton sprayed with insecticides, Bt cotton has major benefits in terms of the environment, yield security and major benefits in terms of the environment, yield security and human health. The environmental disbenefits appear marginal human health. The environmental disbenefits appear marginal in comparison. in comparison.

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

• Regulating land use has very significant social and Regulating land use has very significant social and economic implications and a complex set of drivers economic implications and a complex set of drivers that will change over timethat will change over time

• FSEs provided valuable data on impact of FSEs provided valuable data on impact of agriculture that have wider implications in terms of agriculture that have wider implications in terms of developing a policy and regulatory framework for developing a policy and regulatory framework for sustainable land usesustainable land use

• Developing such a framework is timely but the Developing such a framework is timely but the modalities and evidence-base are incomplete modalities and evidence-base are incomplete

• Current EU regulatory system is flawed but little Current EU regulatory system is flawed but little political will for changepolitical will for change

WHAT SHOULD A POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE LAND USE LOOK LIKE? Chris Pollock Aberystwyth...

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