What Program Areas And In Which State Regions Do We Need To Grow? Part I Commission on Higher...
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Transcript of What Program Areas And In Which State Regions Do We Need To Grow? Part I Commission on Higher...
What Program AreasAnd In Which State Regions
Do We Need To Grow?Part I
Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment
December 10, 2012
www.flbog.edu
Key Questions3
Shorter-term• What industries and occupations are projected to be in greatest demand in
Florida between now and 2020?• State-wide• By region
• Operationalizing an example of Gap Analysis: What is the gap between projected demand and potential supply for I.T.?• State-wide• For what regions
• If we accept BOG degree projections to 2020, what is the potential demand for graduates in top occupations?
Longer-term• Does the Commission envision a more ambitious future for Florida – with
demand for higher levels of education for future workers? If so, what is the benchmark (an overall growth factor)? The Big 4 states? High Performing States? Other?
www.flbog.edu
4 Definition of Terms
Demand: Degree-holders employers are projected to need
Supply: Degree-holders the higher education system can potentially generate
Total Employment: All non-agricultural jobs in Florida
Total Openings: The combined job openings from both growth and replacement
Annual Openings: The projected job openings each year
Growth Job: Additional jobs above and beyond the replacement jobs total
Replacement Job: Job vacancy created by retirees and leavers
Industry Sectors: Employer industry categories of FL DEO & U.S. Dept. of Labor
SOC Codes: Standard Occupational Classification codes (FL DEO & U.S. DOL)
IPEDS: Federal Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (U.S. Dept. of Education)
CIP Codes: Classification scheme for curricular disciplines and majors (IPEDS degree categories, U.S. DOE)
www.flbog.edu
Florida Employment6
Florida’s recession job loss was huge.
Projecting supply, demand and gaps is especially challenging in this economic climate.
• Employment levels dropped to what they were almost a decade ago. • Recovery is projected to be slower than past recoveries. • More unemployed Floridians with college degrees will be seeking jobs
alongside newly graduated degree-holders in the future. • Florida is projected to gain more than one million new jobs between 2012 and
2020 (1.6% annual growth). • The unemployment rate is forecast to decline to 6.5% by 2020, and projected
total employment will be just over 9 million jobs.
www.flbog.edu
Occupational Employment by Educational Requirement (Projected to
2020)
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program.Prepared: October 2012.
7
3,244,1002,255,400 2,540,800
1,691,400 3,524,2003,908,500
1,743,450 435,150495,500305,300 448,100518,9001,185,200 1,106,950
1,257,000288,500 317,900
372,300
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,00010,000,000
2004 2012 2020
Jobs
Florida Occupational Employment by Educational RequirementU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Education Codes
Master's and above
Bachelor's Degree
Associate's Degree
Postsecondary VocationalHigh School Diploma
Less than High School
Projected
Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics, Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Prepared Oct. 2012
www.flbog.edu
Florida Projected Job Growth and Replacement (Baccalaureate Level and
Higher)
393,498338,579
104,322
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Requiring a Bachelor's (RNs included)
Requiring a Bachelor’s (RNs excluded)
Requiring a Master's or Higher
2012 - 2020
Florida Projected Job Openings Requiring a Bachelor's Degree or Higher Cumulative Growth 2012 - 2020-
(BLS Education Codes)
Column A
Column B
2012 - 20202012 - 2020
Column CJo
b O
pen
ing
s (
Gro
wth
an
d R
epla
ce
men
t)
Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr. Employment Projections Program. Prepared Oct. 2012
8
www.flbog.edu
Current Jobs Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree
by Industry in Florida (2012)
9
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.
9
www.flbog.edu
Total Jobs: Workforce Demand within Industries
by Educational Level (if current trends continue)
10
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center, Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released September 2012.(*Projections rounded to the nearest 100.)
INDUSTRYTOTALJOBS
Projected for 2020
Associate Degree Bachelor's & Higher
# % # %
TOTAL, All Industries 9,092,891 518,913 6% 1,629,281 18%
Education and Health Services 1,928,405 284,055 15% 634,886 33%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,651,109 16,068 1% 100,373 6%
Professional and Business Services 1,287,322 92,888 7% 325,046 25%
Leisure and Hospitality 1,105,742 7,468 1% 27,776 3%
Self Employed 706,032 30,037 4% 138,987 20%
Government 569,907 27,767 5% 135,182 24%
Financial Activities 526,575 6,521 1% 97,883 19%
Construction 449,302 23,871 5% 23,988 5%
Other Services (Except Government) 345,770 15,334 4% 57,341 17%
Manufacturing 311,954 10,370 3% 46,095 15%
Information 130,016 4,137 3% 39,451 30%Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 77,513 307 0% 2,122 3%
Mining 3,244 90 3% 151 5%
www.flbog.edu
Annual Average Occupational DemandGrowth by Specific Occupation (Baccalaureate Level)
11
Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education
Financial Managers
Software Developers, Systems Software
Civil Engineers
Personal Financial Advisors
Sales Managers
Public Relations Specialists
Chief Executives
Securities and Financial Services Sales Agents
Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists
Middle School Teachers, Exc. Special & Voc. Education
Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Voc. Ed.
Management Analysts
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education
Accountants and Auditors
From Growth
From Replacement
510
530
540
580
580
600
600
660
760
780
1,240
1,450
1,870
2,890
3,240Average Annual Salary
$66,760$50,960
$74,160
$53,580
$51,430
$58,670
$88,070
$191,750
$59,430
$129,490
$82,420
$83,100
$90,720
$122,960
$50,440
Source: Dept. of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Ctr., Employment Projections Program, Forecast to 2020, released Sept.2012. NOTE: Data rounded by FL Board of Governors.
www.flbog.edu
Greatest Number of Annual Openingsby Workforce Region
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Occupational Titles (BLS Baccalaureate Level)Statewid
eJacksonvill
e Miami OrlandoAccountants and Auditors 3,300 230 420 540Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 3,060 220 370 470Secondary School Teachers, Exc. Special and Voc. Ed. 1,670 110 200 250Management Analysts 1,650 130 190 270Middle School Teachers, Exc. Special & Voc. Education 1,290 100 130 210
Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Mfg, Tech. & Sci. Products 1,250 90 190 130Public Relations Specialists 820 70 120 160Recreation Workers 770 . . .Graphic Designers 750 . 130 160Compliance Officers, Exc. Safety, Agri, Constr & Transp. 740 . 170 .Civil Engineers . 70 . .Securities and Financial Services Sales Agents . 110 130 .Chief Executives . . . 140Sales Managers . 70 . 130
Grand Total 15,300 1,180 2,050 2,470
SOURCE: Board of Governors staff analysis of Dept. of Economic Opportunity 2011-19 Occupational Projections.NOTE: DEO 2020 projections have been rounded to the nearest tens digit.
www.flbog.edu
CIP: Classification of Instructional Program
16
CIP codes provide more detailed information on degree production at the two-digit, four-digit, and six-digit levels, respectively.
CIP Code 11: Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services
11.02 Computer Programming11.0201 Computer Programming/Programmer General11.0203 Computer Programming, Vendor/Product
Certification11.08 Computer Software and Media Applications
11.0803 Computer Graphics11.0804 Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation
www.flbog.edu
Elements of a Demand-SupplyGap Analysis
Surveyed by FDEO to
determine projected hiring
using USDOL Standard
Occupational Classification
codes
SOC codes have been cross-
walked to related
educational CIP codes by the
National Crosswalk
Center
Classification of
Instructional Programs (CIP) codes assigned to educational programs using
a taxonomy established by
the U.S. Department of
Education
Colleges and universities offer
degrees identified by CIP codes which can
be reasonably aligned with SOC codes
Educational
Institutions
(SUS, FCS, ICUF, CIE)
US Dept. of
Education (NCES/IPE
DS)
USDOL & National
Crosswalk Center
Employers
In FloridaDEMAND SUPPLY
17
www.flbog.edu
SOCTitles & Codes
Computer and
Information Research Scientists(15-1111)
Computer Systems Analysts
(15-1121)
Computer Programmers
(15-1131)
Software Developers, Applications(15-1132)
Software Developers,
Systems Software(15-1133)
Database Administrator
s(15-1141)
Network and Computer Systems
Architects and
Administrators
(15-1142)
Computer Support
Specialists(15-1150)
Information Security Analysts and Web
Developers (15-1179,15-1122)
Computer Occupations, All Other(15-1199)
Associated Degree
CIP Codes
11.0101 11.0201 11.0102 11.0102 11.0101 11.0101 11.0103 11.0101 27.0301 14.3701
11.0103 11.0202 11.0103 11.0103 11.0802 11.1001 11.0701 11.0301 27.0304 52.1301
11.0501 11.0203 11.0104 11.0104 11.1003 11.1003 11.0901 11.0401 27.0501 11.0901 11.0299 11.0201 11.0201 11.1001 11.0701 27.0502
11.0701 11.0202 11.0202 11.1002 11.1005 27.0503
11.0803 11.0701 11.0401 11.1003 26.1103 27.0599
11.0804 11.0804 11.0701 11.1005 26.1104 52.1304
15.1204 14.0901 14.0901 43.0116 30.0801
51.0709 14.0903 14.0903 30.1601
52.1201 15.1204 15.1204 30.3001
26.1103 30.3101
51.2706 43.0116
51.2706
18 Step 1 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysisfor Computer Occupations, SOC 15-11 (as an example)
CIP codes in RED are associated with more than one SOC code.
1st step: Identify the 6-Digit SOC/CIP relationships for Computer Occupations
www.flbog.edu
Step 2 of Supply-Demand ‘Gap’ Analysisfor Computer Occupations (as an example)
6-DIGITSOC CODE 6-DIGIT SOC TITLE
PROJECTEDDEMAND
DUPLICATED SUPPLY*
15-1111 Computer and Information Research Scientists 18 1,160
15-1121 Computer Systems Analysts 865 1,157
15-1131 Computer Programmers 556 468
15-1132 Software Developers, Applications 651 1,112
15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software 537 1,118
15-1141 Database Administrators 222 652
15-1142Network and Computer Systems Architects and Administrators
629 652
15-1179Information Security Analysts and Web Developers (15-1122)
800 457
15-1799 Computer Occupations, All Other (15-1199) 150 660
3-DIGITSOC CODE
3-DIGIT SOC TITLE TOTAL DEMANDUNDUPLICATED
SUPPLY
15-11 COMPUTER OCCUPATIONS (SOC 15-1100) 4,428 2,330**Note: Due to individual CIP codes being associated with more than one SOC code, considerable duplication of degree graduate counts occur at the six-digit SOC/CIP level. Rolling the analysis up to the three-digit SOC level provides a more accurate Gap Analysis of Demand/Supply.
19
2nd Step: Total Projected Demand and Determine Unduplicated Supply
www.flbog.edu
Which Emerging Businesses Should Be a First Priority for a Gap Analysis?
20
•Aviation & Aerospace•Clean Technology
SolarBiofuelsStorageOceanSmart GridAdvanced Materials & ProductsGreen BuildingsWaterAir & Environment
•Financial/Professional Services•Homeland Security/Defense
•Information TechnologyModeling, Simulation, and TrainingPhotonics/OpticsDigital MediaSoftware & Computer System DesignComputer & MicroelectronicsTelecommunications
•Life SciencesBiotechMedical DevicesPharmaceuticalsHealth Care
www.flbog.edu
Re-cap: Florida’s National Rankings22
% of 18-24 yr. olds enrolled in college: 31st
High school to college continuation rate: 38th
% of 2010 population with a bachelor’s or higher: 37th
Bachelor’s degrees per 18-24yr population: 34th
Per capita gross domestic product: 40th
Per capita net earnings: 45th
Knowledge jobs in 2010 New Economy Index: 33rd
www.flbog.edu
Case Examples (Baccalaureate Level)
SOC Code SOC Title 2012 Base
Employment
Additional Demand Needed: Benchmarking Florida’s Workforce to Other Indicators
Top 5 Occupational
Density)
Top 10 Occupational
Density
National Average
Occupational Density
Big 4 Occupational
Density
High Performing
Occupational Density
113021Computer and
Information Systems
Managers8,200 2,600 1,950 1,300 1,100 2,200
132011 Accountants and Auditors 81,400 60 -300 -1,700 -700 -500
113021 Financial Managers 18,200 3,300 2,500 1,400 1,600 2,100
Source: Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center. Projected Demand for Labor by Occupation (2012-2010). Occupations Requiring Bachelor’s Degree, sorted by Annual Total Openings (Growth and Replacement) BLS Education Codes.
23
www.flbog.edu
SOURCE: Projections Central - State Occupational Projections
Workforce DemandIs Florida’s Projected Workforce Demand Competitive with Other States?
24
2008-2018 JOB PROJECTIONS BY STATE & BY EDUCATION LEVELProjected Total Job Openings (New & Replacement) as a Percentage of Total Jobs in 2008
Educational Levels United States
BIG10 California Florida Georgia Illinois Michigan New YorkNorth
CarolinaOhio Texas
Less than high school 38% 39% 40% 35% 45% 38% 35% 35% 39% 34% 46%
High school diploma or equivalent 29% 28% 28% 25% 33% 28% 26% 23% 28% 25% 35%
Some college, no degree 41% 38% 34% 34% 49% 38% 39% 30% 40% 36% 46%
Postsecondarynon-degree award 35% 34% 34% 32% 40% 33% 29% 30% 33% 32% 40%
Associate's degree 33% 32% 30% 29% 34% 34% 30% 27% 33% 31% 36%
Bachelor's degree 38% 35% 36% 32% 41% 35% 32% 28% 35% 32% 45%
Master's degree 40% 39% 39% 38% 48% 38% 35% 34% 36% 34% 51%
Doctoral or professional degree 38% 35% 37% 33% 38% 34% 32% 27% 41% 32% 42%
ALL LEVELS 34% 33% 34% 30% 38% 33% 30% 28% 33% 29% 40%
More than 105% of BIG 10 +/-5% of BIG 10 Less than 95% of BIG 10
www.flbog.edu
Questions and Next Steps
1. Is the gap analysis method appropriate?a. Focus first on under-supply relative to projected demand
b. Use six-digit SOCs and CIPs, but aggregate at the three-digit SOC levels
c. Use the 24 workforce regions to customize demand
2. Should we accept the status quo for baccalaureate degree production . . . . or consider a more ambitious, competitive future for Florida?
25