What order would you do the above actions if you wanted to run for President…? Chapter 9: Nominations, Elections and Campaigns

1. Form a campaign organization, 2. run in primaries and caucuses, 3. participate in televised debates, 4. announce candidacy, 5. conduct electoral vote, 6. attend national convention, 7. raise funds, 8. hold popular vote, 9. build a coalition of supporters, 10. develop a campaign strategy

Just write the #

Changes in the Presidential Nomination Process

0OBJECTIVE: You will get a description of an aspect of the presidential nomination process. If your description fits the process pre-1968, line up by the window. If your description fits the process post-1968, line up by the supply area.

THEN discuss your attributes (qualities).

LATER we will compare the processes and decide which process is more democratic.

Pre-1968 Post-1968

0Party Dominated0Few Primaries0Short Campaigns0Easy money0Limited Media

Coverage0Late Decisions0Open Conventions

0Candidate Dominated

0Many Primaries0Long Campaigns 0Difficult

Fundraising0Media Focused0Front-Loaded0Closed Conventions

American Voting Culture

0Americans vote for more candidates more often than anywhere else in the world.

British Voting Culture

0British elections are not held on a fixed calendar and are timed to political needs. Voters only choose among one small set of candidates running for a single seat in parliament

The Evolution of Campaigning

0An election campaign is an organized effort to persuade voters to choose one candidate over others competing for the same office

0Today, campaigns seldom rely much on political parties and rather focus on political consultants to devise sound bites, using the Internet to raise money and the media to deliver messages

Nominations

0Primary Elections are preliminary elections conducted within the party to select its candidates

0Primary voters tend to nominate candidates who are more ideologically extreme than the party as a whole would prefer

0 In the 2010 Midterm election, tea party leaders worked to nominate more conservative candidates over more moderate (and more electable) candidates http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2010/02/05/pm.2.tea.party.party.cnn

Types of Primaries

0Closed Primary: Voters must register their party affiliation to vote on potential candidates

0Open Primaries: Any voter, regardless of party registration or affiliation, can choose either party’s ballot

0Modified Closed Primaries: Individual state parties decide whether to allow those not registered with either party to vote with their party registrants

0Modified Open Primaries: all those note already registered with a party can choose any party ballot and vote with their party registrants

Nomination for President

0Each party formally chooses its presidential and vice-presidential candidates at a national convention held every four years in the summer prior to the November election

0What are the changes in the Presidential Nomination Process?

Presidential Primary

0A special primary held to select delegates to attend a party’s national nominating convention to elect the president

0Democrats are PROPORTIONAL (Above 15%)0Republicans are WINNER-TAKES-ALL0Most delegates selected in primaries are publically

committed to specific candidates and one can usually tell before a party’s summer nominating convention who is going to be the nominee

Front-Loaded Primaries

0The importance of Iowa (first caucus) and New Hampshire (first primary)

0MN has a caucus system. What is a caucus: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fobO82jbNRg

0The contests in Iowa and New Hampshire usually quickly shrink the field of candidates.

Super Tuesday

0The largest number of states selects the most delegates

0 In 2008, 24 states had primaries on the same day

Main Points

0 When no incumbent is in the White House, the presidential nominating process becomes contested in both parties

0 An incumbent president usually encounters little or no opposition for re-nomination within the party

0 The Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary do matter

0 Candidates eventually favored by most party identifiers usually win their party’s nomination

0 Candidates who win the nomination do so largely on their own and oew little or nothing to the national party organization, which usually does not promote a candidate

Elections

0By national law, all seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the seats in the Senate are filled in a general election held in early-November in even-numbered years. Mid-term elections happen between Presidential elections

0The Electoral College…

The Electoral College

0The Constitution specifies that a candidate needs 270 votes to win the election

0The popular vote from each state results in the awarding of ELECTORS

0The number of ELECTORS comes from the number of Senators and representatives in the House of Representatives from each state

0http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw

Abolish it?Arguments for the Electoral College

Arguments Against the Electoral College

0 Designed to insulate the office of the President from popular passions

0 Gives small states more weight in the vote

0 Presidential campaigns visit areas (though leave out some) rather than campaigning only on TV

0 Prevents nationwide recount

0Swing states get additional attention

0Popular vote winner might not win the election

0 http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2012/08/31/al-gore-electoral-college-current.current-tv

What the author meant by the Presidential Election being federal

rather than national…

Federal National

0Decided by electoral vote

0Election decided in specific swing/ battleground states

0Decided by popular vote

0Would be more majoritarian

Congressional Elections

0Straight ticket voting means a voter votes for candidates from the same party

0Split ticket voting means a voter votes for candidates from more than one political party

0 It’s normal for midterm elections to show losses for the President’s party. People are frustrated things aren’t done more quickly.

0 In 2010 the Democrats lost more than 60 seats in the House

Campaigns

0The political context0 Is the candidate an incumbent or a challenger? 0 Incumbents have a much higher chance of being elected0 Incumbents are re-elected in the House 95% of the time

0Financing 0 “There are four parts to any campaign. The candidate,

the issues of the candidate, the campaign organization and the money to run the campaign with. Without money, you can forget the other three.”

Regulating Campaign Finance

0Federal Election Commission (FEC) created in 1974. Bipartisan agency of 6 members that oversees the financing of national election campaigns0 Appointments are staggered so the same president does

not appoint 2 people

0 Set campaign finance laws for hard (direct contributions to candidates) and soft money (donations to party committees)

Current Regulations0BCRA limits

0 $2,400 to a specific candidate (two-year cycle)0 $10,000 to each party or political committee (per year)0 $30,400 per year to any national committee

Citizen’s United v. Federal Election Commission

0A bitterly divided 2010 Supreme Court case that banned spending limits placed on corporations citing the defense of freedom of speech while liberals viewed it as an opening to the corruption of corporate influences

Public Financing of Presidential Campaigns

0 In short, if candidates took the public financing, there would be a cap set at $42.05 million in primary campaigns

0 Obama turned down the funds in 2008 and ended up raising $183 million for the primary

0 The cap for presidential elections is $84 million0 Both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama refused public

funds to raise more money0 Other topics: Internet fundraising and bundlers– people

who college donations from individuals and bundle them to deliver them to the candidate

Obama & Romney

Is money power?0What impact will Citizen’s United have on future U.S.

elections?

TALK TO YOUR 8 O’CLOCK PARTNER!

Election Strategies & Tactics

0Party-centered strategy– relies heavily on voters’ partisan identification as well as on the party’s organization

0 Issue-oriented strategy– seeks support from groups that feel strongly about issues and policies

0Candidate-oriented strategy– depends on the candidate’s personal qualities

Making the News…

0Campaign managers cater to reporters’ deadlines

0News coverage revolves around sound bites and horse race journalism focusing bandwagons, losing ground, the front-runner and the likely loser

0Media events: Media events: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=40Nqzx4Z1FA

Advertising the Candidates

0First objective of paid advertising is name recognition0A decision must be made if the campaign is to “go

negative” or focus on “contrast ads”– criticize opponent and advocate their own policies0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1D1jI61ckY0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F4LtTlktm0

0 10 Best Campaign Commercials http://blogs.kqed.org/lowdown/2012/10/03/ten-of-the-best-presidential-campaign-commercials-of-all-time/

Using the Internet

0Candidates like the Internet because it is fast, easy to use and is cheap– saving money on mailing costs and phone calls

0More than 3 million Americans have donated money online for Obama’s campaign (grassroots organizing)

0Romney depends more on bundlers from the business world

Explaining Voter Choice

PARTY IDENTIFICATION0More than ½ of the electorate knows how they will

vote before the end of the party convention0Democrats do not turn out to vote as consistently as

Republicans ISSUES AND POLICIES 0 Incumbents have their record in office to get them

elected (or not)

CANDIDATES’ ATTRIBUTES0Candidates qualities are especially important to

voters who lack good information about candidates’ past performance and policy stands

0Some fall back on personal beliefs about religion, gender and race in making political decisions

Evaluating Voting Choice

0Many studies show that people focus less on issues than party identification or candidate attributes

Campaign Effects

0The Television Campaign– often promotes “sound bites” so candidates cannot rely on TV to show their message

0ADS, ADS, ADS0Obama aired a 30 minute ad during the 2008

campaign http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0JhEtzch4Y

0The Presidential Debates

Campaigns, Elections and Parties

0Highly personalized, candidate centered and conducted outside of the control of party organizations

0Majoritarian model & parties– parties increase responsiveness

0Pluralist model & parties– two giant interest groups

NOW… We will have our own Presidential Election!

OBJECTIVE: Students will take on the roles of presidential candidates, advisors and voters

0Cory Matthews– Shelby, Ben 0Terry Lankan– Melissa, Kristina 0Pat Donnellson– Huesee, Nanney 0Casey McMahon– Jame, Kathy 0Taylor Andrews– Vang, Hob 0JA Curley– J-Son, Rachel

0Voters: 0Toua, Jasmine, Sunny, Brittany, Dorian (R)

Chi Nou, Evin, Douachee, Kong, Sabrina (D)

HW: Complete the Handouts for Debate Prep

Debate

0Each candidate gets to give a 30 second intro0The national town hall meeting format will feature

audience questions. Each candidate must be asked 2 questions.

0Candidates will be limited to 1 minutes (speaking) 0Each candidate can give a 30 second closing0After the meeting, we will hold primary elections.

0What sets you apart from the other Democratic/ Republican candidates?

Primary Elections

0The candidate with the most votes will receive the party nomination (we are going to skip the national conventions to move right to campaigning and the presidential election)

Choosing a VP…

0Candidates who won your primaries, choose a VP.

0 (You might want to keep in mind who got the most votes other than you in your party…)

Debrief

0Audience: Was this a good way to learn about candidates?

0Candidates: How did it feel to be asked questions? What was exciting or challenging about the experience? What might you do differently if you had a chance to do it again?

0Everyone: Do you think this is the best forum to learn about candidates and their positions? Do you think the primary process is an effective way to choose the party’s nominee? How were the steps you took similar or different from a real election?

Interest Group Meet & Greet

0Goal: Interest groups will try to get influence by giving power tokens to candidates who promise to do something for the interest group.

0Only 1 candidate will win the election… You might want to support multiple candidates.

To Do:

0Give a quick speech about WHO you are and WHAT you stand for (Interest groups)

0Candidates and Interest Groups will meet (candidates and their campaign manager and vice president might want to split up to meet as many people as possible)

0 If candidates accept Power Tokens or endorsements from an interest group whose cause they could not realistically support, candidates will be penalized

Debrief

0Which candidate did the best? Why do you think interest groups were more likely to support that candidate?

0What is the relationship between candidates and interest groups?

0How might this relationship be beneficial for democracy? How might it be harmful?

Presidential Election

0Presidential candidates and VPs can select one more person to campaign with them (could be former candidates to try to get his/ her former supporters to side with you)

0Citizens: Get into your assigned state and decide Which issues should are most important to your state?

0Nominees: Decide which states you should focus on and why.

0Campaign session: you have 10 minutes to campaign. Candidates can go to as many states as they’d like. No state can stop a nominee as he or she is traveling.