What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on...

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What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change

Transcript of What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on...

Page 1: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts?

University of WashingtonProgram on Climate Change

Page 2: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Who we are…

Graduate Students, University of WashingtonProgram on Climate Change• Lia Slemons• Robert Hahn

Page 3: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

"I know of no safe repository "I know of no safe repository of the ultimate power of of the ultimate power of

society but thesociety but thepeople. And if we think them people. And if we think them not enlightened enough, the not enlightened enough, the

remedy is not toremedy is not totake power from them, but to take power from them, but to inform them by education."inform them by education."

- Thomas Jefferson 3rd President of U.S.

Author of the Declaration of Independence

Page 4: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Outline

• What are greenhouse gases?• How do they affect climate?• What will the future look like?

• air• water• storms and drought

• What can we do?

Page 5: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Greenhouse effect

Source: Murray ca. 2005

GHG

• GHGs reradiate some escaping energy back towards the surface, making the temperature warmer

GHG

• Sunlight heats the earth

• To maintain an equilibrium, Earth reradiates the energy to space• Greenhouse gases absorb this energy

GHG

Page 6: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Human sources of Greenhouse Gases

Source: Earth Trends 2008

• ~50% of CO2 emissions to atmosphere are currently from humans

• Fossil fuel burning represents 81% of human sources of GHGs

Page 7: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

U.S.

186.1

EuropeanUnion

127.8Russia

68.4Ukraine

21.7Poland

14.4

China

57.6Japan

31.2

Australia

7.6

India

15.5

Kazakhstan

10.1

South Africa

8.5

Canada

14.9

Mexico

7.8Trinidad and Tobago

United Arab Emirates

Kuwait

Total CO2 emissions

since 1950 in billions of tons

Time, 2001

Page 8: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Global Energy trends

• U.S. has ~4% of global population, and contributes ~25% of global CO2 emissions. • China now emits more CO2 than the U.S. (International Energy Agency, 2007)

• After 2010, China is predicted to surpass the U.S. to become the world’s largest consumer of energy.

Earth Trends 2008

Page 9: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

CO2 1958 to present

Year

CO

2 (p

pm)

• CO2 concentrations have increased since 1958

• Estimated increase of about 30% since 1850

(280 ppm to 370 ppm)

Page 10: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Instrumental Temperature Record

Source: NOAA

Δ T

empe

ratu

re (

C )

Δ T

empe

ratu

re (

F )

Page 11: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

More Evidence: Ice Cores

• Ice layers preserve information about each year Sources: NOAA, GISP2 websites

Page 12: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

050

,00

0

10

0,0

00

15

0,0

00

20

0,0

00

25

0,0

00

30

0,0

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0,0

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0,0

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Years BP

Te

mp

era

ture

diffe

ren

tial, ºC

180

220

260

300

340

380

CO

2 c

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

, pp

mv

Temperature differential

CO2 concentration

Ice Core EvidenceCO2 and temperature, 420,000 BP to present

Source: various, (1) Vostok assembled by Davies 2000, (2) GISP2

Today

2050 2100??

Page 13: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Using Computer Models to Understand Climate

Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence

All Climate Influences

Page 14: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Impacts of Climate Change

Regional focus on China

Page 15: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Typhoon Saomai (Aug. ‘06)

• Most powerful storm ever to strike mainland China. Landfall was in Zhejiang Province

• 458 deaths--most were caused by storm surge flooding in coastal fishing communities.

• $2.5 billion (2006 USD) in damage -- 4.9 billion yuan in Zhejiang alone.

• Six reservoirs in Jiangxi Province were destroyed.

Page 16: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Temperature & Precipitation Patterns

Source: IPCC ARW4, Session 1, Figure 10.9

“Will the wet will get wetter and the dry will get drier?”--Dr. Isaac Held

Source: GFDL Modeling Research Highlights

Page 17: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

What Causes the Precipitation Changes?

Poleward Expansion of the Hadley Cells associated with weakened equator-to-pole temperature gradients.

Source: Eastern Illinois University

Page 18: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Regional Impacts: China’s Water Resources•Anticipated decrease river runoff in northern China:

Would worsen existing water shortage and deplete groundwater.• Increased evaporation in each watershed (up to 15%):

Would increase the likelihood of drought.• Increased evaporation + changing precipitation patterns: Would reduce wetlands, lose biodiversity, and increase extinctions.• Decreased snowpack and glaciation: Would make western China more drought-susceptible.

Source: China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change

Page 19: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Regional Impacts: China’s Agriculture

• Warmer weather in the past several decades has changed agriculture:

- Wheat production has expanded north and west.-Climate change would result in reduced yield of rice, maize, and wheat (up to 37% by 2100).

Source: China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change

Page 20: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Air quality• Coal meets 2/3 of China’s energy needs.• The burning of coal produces sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides.

• Urban air pollution accounted for 3.4% of all deaths in 2001. (Disease Control Priorities Project 2006)

• Beijing raised the sulfur pollution tax and offset the cost of installing sulfur dioxide scrubbers for power plants in 2006. (Earth Trends 2008)

Coal miner from Linfen, ChinaState Environmental Protection Agency

Coal miner from Kansas,

U.S.Kansas

Historical Society

Page 21: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Our Future Depends on Our Choices

Policy:

International agreements

After Kyoto Protocol, new talks in Bali

National and regional laws

US Mayors Climate Protection Agreement

WA voters: by 2020, 15% state power from renewable energy

China’s goal: 2020, 16% renewable energy

Personal:

Reduce energy use:

• at home: heating, light

• drive less, drive efficiently

As a consumer

support businesses that are energy conscious

Get political

vote

Choices require value judgments and long-term planning

Page 22: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Summary

• Human-induced climate change is apparent and will increase into the future.• Temperature change is more certain than changes in precipitation.• Precipitation change can profoundly impact groundwater, agriculture, drought and flooding.• Human health effects of coal are both short-term because of air quality and long-term because of climate change.• Today’s choices will impact the future.

Page 23: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

The End.

Questions?

University of Washington

Program on Climate Change

Page 24: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

Our Future Depends on Our Choices

The technology needed to decrease emissions while still powering our world exists today

The problem becomes more tractable The problem becomes more tractable if we attack it inif we attack it in wedges.

Other wedges: Nuclear power, Reduced vehicle usage, More effiecient buildings, Biomass fuels, wind hydrogen cars, More efficient power plants, Reduced deforestation, Conservation tillage, More efficient power plants …

Possible wedges:

• Wind power •(50 times current capacity)

• Carbon capture and storage

•(3,500 Sleipners)

• Efficient Vehicles • (Change 2 billion cars from 60mpg to 30mpg)

Source: Pacala and Socalo 2004

Page 25: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.

2004 Emissions per capita

IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1900-1999

World Resources Institute

Page 27: What is the scientific consensus on climate change and impacts? University of Washington Program on Climate Change.