What is Robust Decision Support?
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Transcript of What is Robust Decision Support?
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Financially supported by
What is Robust Decision Support?
Greater Mekong Forum on Water, Food and Energy Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Oct 21-‐23, 2015
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ScenariosCoherent stories of the future told to inform current decision-‐making with qualita7ve descrip7on to capture: – Cultural influences, values, behaviors – Shocks, disconJnuiJes – Texture, richness, imaginaJon, insight
OMen supported by quan7ta7ve analysis, to provide: – Definiteness, explicitness, detail – Consistency – Technical rigor, scienJfic accuracy
Scenarios are not predicJons. They describe futures that could be, rather than futures that will be, because…
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The future can be surprising!
Forecast Reality
The home computer in 2004
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But not completely unexpected
Forecast Reality
The home computer in 2004
Extremely compact
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When to use scenarios Scenarios are useful when there are drivers that are highly uncertain and likely to have a large impact
Low Uncertainty
High Uncertainty
High Impact Trends CriJcal uncertainJes
Low Impact VariaJons
Scenarios
Trend analysis
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Climate: A High-‐impact Driver
By late in this century: global mean temperature is projected to rise by 0.3 to 4.8 °C and global mean sea level is projected to rise 0.26 to 0.82 m • Many studies suggest that we will almost certainly pass 2.0°C (the
accepted “dangerous” threshold) by mid-‐century • Without rapid and dramaJc changes in global energy policy, an increase
of 4°C is likely by the late 21st century IPCC. FiMh Report. 2013. Summary for Policy Makers. Available at: CMIP5 Ensemble. Source: IPCC – 2013. Annex 1 – Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Change ProjecJons. htpt://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-‐report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_AnnexI_FINAL.pdf
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But Impacts are Uncertain • By the Jme a child born today is 40 years old, storms that occurred once in 20 years could occur once in 10 years
• Or 5 years… • Or 18 years…
Return period in 1981-‐2000 = 20 years
Source: SREX
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But Impacts are Uncertain • By the Jme a child born today is 40 years old, storms that occurred once in 20 years could occur once in 10 years
• Or 5 years… • Or 18 years…
Return period in 1981-‐2000 = 20 years
Source: SREX
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But Impacts are Uncertain • By the Jme a child born today is 40 years old, storms that occurred once in 20 years could occur once in 10 years
• Or 5 years… • Or 18 years…
Return period in 1981-‐2000 = 20 years
Source: SREX
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Robust Decision Support1. Develop a set of scenarios 2. IdenJfy indicators for desired outcomes 3. Propose different policy packages 4. Ask: What happens to the indicators under
different combinaJons of scenarios and policy packages? – QualitaJve models – QuanJtaJve models
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QualitaJve or QuanJtaJve Modeling
Policy set 1 Policy set 2 Policy set 3Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
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QualitaJve or QuanJtaJve Modeling
Policy set 1 Policy set 2 Policy set 3Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4
Can we combine benefits?
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QuanJtaJve ModelingPS 1 PS 2 PS 3 PS 4 PS 5 PS 6
Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6Scenario 7Scenario 8Scenario 9Scenario 10Scenario 11
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QuanJtaJve ModelingPS 1 PS 2 PS 3 PS 4 PS 5 PS 6
Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Scenario 5Scenario 6Scenario 7Scenario 8Scenario 9Scenario 10Scenario 11
Can we combine benefits?
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Prac7cal steps for RDS with a quan7ta7ve model STEPS INPUT
1. Iden7fying key organiza7on: Actor Mapping
Series of stakeholder engagement meeJngs 2. Problem formula7on :
XLRM
Robust Strategy
4. Large ensemble of model runs 5. Scenario explora7on and visualiza7on
6. Trade-‐off Analysis
3. Model construc7on
QuesJonnaire, survey, interview, workshop, literature review
Data (climate and non-‐climate), computer, experts, meeJngs, experiences
Experts, scripJng, training
SoMware, data visualizaJon and workshops
SoMware, data visualizaJon and workshops
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Thank You!
eric.kemp-‐benedict@sei-‐internaJonal.org