What is public opinion?

The aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials.

• They are considered the most reliable indicator of what the public is thinking.

Is Public Opinion Stable?

Depending on the issue, public opinion is more or less stable.

• In the realm of foreign policy, public opinion is less stable, especially on issues like war.• On domestic issues, public opinion is more stable,

especially on social issues like abortion.

Why Is It Important to Poll the Public?

In a democracy, public opinion is part of the “input” side of the governmental process.

• Inputs are the way in which citizens in a democracy tell their elected officials what they want from government. They include:– Voting– Campaigning– Contacting Elected Officials– Protests

Does Public Opinion Matter?

Presidents are often the subject of public opinion polls.

• Presidents with higher degrees of public support as measured by public opinion polls are able to use that support to leverage Congress to act in support of their agendas.– Example: President George W. Bush

» Post 9-11 approval high = Passage of USA PATRIOT ACT» Post Katrina approval low = Defeat of Immigration Reform

Act

What is Most Commonly Measured with Public Opinion Polls?

Efficacy• The extent to which people believe their actions affect

the course of government

Political Trust• The extent to which people believe the government

acts in their best interests

– Note that polls have show that both have been declining over the past 50 years, but patriotism has not decline.

The Use of Polls Historically

Scientific public opinion polls are a modern invention.

The use of unscientific polls included:• Elite Polls

– Measuring the opinion of those members of society in elite classes only

• Straw Polls– Ballot polls by nineteenth-century newspapers to predict the

outcome of elections.

Scientific Polls

Method of polling that provides a fairly precise reading of public opinion by using random sampling.

• Random Sample Poll– Method of selection that gives everyone who might be

selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included.

– Most popular is the Gallup Poll

How Do Scientific Polls Work?

Scientific polls rely on a representative sample of the group being polled.

• Each person in the group has the same chance of being selected.– Most nation-wide scientific polls include a minimum of 1000

people

How Are Samples Collected?

There are a variety of methods, including:• In person interviews

– Weaknesses» Time-consuming» Expensive» Difficult to be truly random

• Random dial telephone calls– Weaknesses

» Some people don’t have phones» Hard to get a “read” on what people are thinking over the

phone» Cell phones

Samples Continued

• Call-in polls– Weaknesses

» Not random» Only those people who see the number can call» Those who feel strongly about the poll are most likely to

reply

• Internet polls– Weaknesses

» Not random» Only those people who visit the site will take the poll» Those who feel strongly about the poll are most likely to

reply

Samples Continued

• Letter polls– Weaknesses

» Low response rate» Those who feel strongly about the poll are most likely to

reply

Which Type of Sample is the Most Reliable?

Random-dial telephone calls• Truly random• Instant response• Best return rate

Presidential Election Polls

Tracking Polls• Polls that seek to gauge changes of opinion of the same

sample size over a period of time, common during the closing months of presidential elections.

Exit Polls• Polls that survey a sample of voters immediately after

exiting the voting booth to predict the outcome of the election before the ballots are officially counted.

• Note: Both are used to try to predict the outcome of elections before they take place.

Other Types of Polls

Push Polls• Polls that are designed to manipulate the opinions of

those being polled.– Push polls are not scientific.– They are often put out by a candidate’s campaign or a special

interest group.– They often seem like objective public opinion polls, but

include misleading information about the candidate’s opponent or the interest group’s opposition.

Errors in Polling

Confidence Intervals• Statistical range, with a given probability, that takes

random error into account

Sampling Error (aka Margin of Error)• Measure of the accuracy of a public opinion poll

reported as a percentage.

Errors Continued

Question wording• The way in which a question is worded can greatly

influence the answers given.

Limited Respondent Options• Giving participants in the sample only the choice of two

or 3 answers, like “yes”, “no” or “I don’t know”.

Non-attitudes• Sources of error in public opinion polls in which

individuals feel obliged to give opinions when they are unaware of the issue or have no opinions about it.

How Do Individuals Acquire Their Political Opinions

Socialization• Impact and influence of one’s social environment on

the views and attitudes one carries in life, a primary source of political attitudes.– Parents, friends, media, community, etc.

Other Factors Affecting Socialization

Generational Effects• Effects on opinion from the era in which one lives.

Self-Interest• Concern for one’s own advantage and well-being.

Rationality• Acting in a way that is consistent with one’s self-

interest.

The Role of Elites in Public Opinion

Elites• Group of people who may lead public opinion, such as

journalists, politicians, and policy makers.

Elite Theory• Idea that public opinion is shaped by discourse among

elites and is a top-to-bottom process.

The Shape of Public Opinion

What roles do party identification and ideology play in shaping public opinion?

• Party Identification– Attachment or allegiance to a political party; partisanship.

» Conservatives are those people who tend to identify themselves with the Republican Party

» Liberals are those people who tend to identify themselves with Democratic Party

» Independents are those people who do no feel a sense of identification with either of the two major political parties.

Shaping Public Opinion Continued

Party identification shapes political ideology. • Political Ideology

– Set of consistent political beliefs.

The way in which we view politics is then seen through a perceptual lens shaped by the set of political beliefs.

• Perceptual Lens– Ideological framework that shapes the way partisans view the

political world and process information.

Is Public Opinion Informed?

The public is generally uniformed about key aspects of government.

• Only 10 percent of the public knows the name of the Speaker of the House. • Only about a third can name one U.S. Supreme Court

justice. • Only about half of Americans know which party

controls Congress• Fewer than half know the name of their own

congressional representative.

Does This Mean Public Opinion is Uninformed?

Political Saliency• Indication of importance and relevance of an issue to

an individual.• Voters ARE relatively well-informed on issues that

matter to them.• The public can learn about issues if they are made

salient through the media.

Voter Shortcuts

Low Information Rationality• Idea that people do not need to have lots of

information to make good decisions.

Party Labels• Using party labels to make decisions allows citizens to

make choices with a high degree of reliability without having a high degree of knowledge on the issues.

What is Polarization?

Polarization• Condition in which differences between parties and/or

the public are so stark that disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and controversy.

Is Congress Polarized?

Since 1975, Congress has become more polarized.

• A look at the DW Nominate Scores , which are a record of individual and roll-call votes in Congress starting with the 1st Congress, shows that members of Congress are voting more frequently with their party members than they have in the past.

Is American Public Opinion Polarized?

Are Americans Polarized?• On the surface, it may appear as though Americans are

polarized. The “red state/blue state” divide looks evident on any map. But political scientists like Morris Fiorina argue that America is not nearly as polarized as the “map” might tell us.• Fiorina and other scholars argue that Americans are by

and large “centrist” and the divide is more rural vs. urban than red state vs. blue state.

Group Differences

How does membership in a group affect a person’s public opinion?

• Socio-economic status– Combined measure of occupation, education, income, wealth, and

relative social standing or lifestyle.

• Age• Religion• Race and Ethnicity• Education• Gender Gap

– Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women.

Public Opinion and Public Policy

Does public opinion affect public policy?• American support for a policy often has an impact on

the success of that policy.– Rally-around-the-flag effect

» Surge of public support for the president in times of international crisis.

Focus Questions

• How does public opinion influence public policy? • In what ways are elected officials responsive to public

opinion? How responsive should they be? • Is every citizen’s voice equal, or are some people more

influential? Why?• How well does polling capture public opinion? Should polls

direct public policy?• Does public opinion provide a gateway or a gate to

democracy?