Calculus What is it? What good is it? What is it? What good is it?
What is it and why is it important?. What is it? What was it based on?
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Transcript of What is it and why is it important?. What is it? What was it based on?
The Demographic Transition Model (Ahhhhhhh)!What is it and why is it important?
What is it?
What was it based on?
Stage 1 The High Fluctuating Stage
This stage is typified by a high CBR and CDR.WHY?
Population growth is very slow. WHY?
Stage 2The Early Expanding Stage
Stage 2 sees the death rate drop.CAUSES:
Birth rate remains high.CAUSES:
Population growth rates are skyrocketing.WHY?
Considerable rural to urban migration takes place.
Stage 3The Late Expanding Stage
During stage 3 the total population is still rising rapidly, but the gap between birth and death rates narrows, why?
Population growth in many stage 3 countries is due to what?
Urbanisation slows.
Stage 4The Low Fluctuating Stage
Stage 4 the total population is high, but it is balanced, why?
Birth rate fluctuates due to:
Death rate rises slightly because:
What happens to life expectancy?
Stage 5The Natural Decrease Stage
In Stage 5 the total population is high but going into decline, WHY?
Which countries are entering Stage 5?
For there to declining population there has to be an absence of what?
DTM
Uses
Simplifies the real world
Predict future trends Planning
Adaptability
Limitations
Failed to predict
population decline
Assumes that in time all countries will pass through
the same four stages.
Unlikely that many LEDCs will
ever become industrialised
Doesn’t account for
many factors
Inability to afford medical facilities
Religious influencePolitical influence
Impact of epidemicsMigration
Demographic Momentum
As countries progress through the DTM, fertility rates fall – however, the population can continue to increase. This phenomenon is known as DEMOGRAPHIC MOMENTUM.
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4Expansive. Expansive. Stationary. Contractive.
Concave sides. Straight sides. Convex sides. Convex sides.
High birth rate. Still high birth rate.
Declining birth rate.
Low birth rate.
High death rate. Falling death rate. Low death rate. Low death rate.
Short life expectancy.
Slightly longer life expectancy.
Long life expectancy.
Longer life expectancy.
Rapid fall in each upward age group
due to high DR.
Fall in DR so more people living into
middle age.
An increasing proportion of the population is in
the 65+ age group.
Higher dependency
ratio.
Kenya India Argentina SwedenEconomic development increases >>>>
Demographic Transition and Population Structure