What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International...

22
What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9, 2006, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Transcript of What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International...

Page 1: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

What Is Happening in China on Climate Change?

LI Liyan and LU Xuedu

BASIC China Team

International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy

August 6-9, 2006, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Page 2: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

Outline

China’s Present Situation

Policies and Actions in China

Building Together for Another Future

Page 3: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

(中国气象局国家气候中心)

Temperature increase observed with past half century in most areas, particularly in northern China

Changes of Annual Average Temperature in China (1951-2001)

Source: CMA, 2005

Vulnerability to adverse impact of climate change

Page 4: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

(中国气象局国家气候中心)

Precipitation increased in southern and western China but decreased in most areas in north and north-east of China

Changes of Annual precipitation in China (1956-2002)

Vulnerability to adverse impact of climate change

Source: CMA, 2005

Page 5: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

Selected Indicators Related to Climate Change Mitigation (2004)

Population 1297 million

Population below poverty standard* ~30 million

GDP (current US$) $1649 billion

GDP per capita (current US$) $1272

Annual GDP growth 10.1%

Energy consumption 2032 Mtce

Energy consumption per capita 1.56 tce

Energy mix Coal 67.7%, Oil 22.7%Gas 2.6%, others 7.0%

Energy related CO2 emissions (2002) 1032MtC

CO2 Emissions per capita (2002) 0.8tC

CO2 emissions per GDP (2002) 0.75kgC/$

Source: WB, China Statistic Yearbook, WRI-CAIT

Page 6: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

Share of Global Energy CO2 Emissions (2002)

US, 23.32%

China, 15.28%EU15, 13.37%

Russia, 6.20%

Japan, 4.90%

India, 4.49%

Canada, 2.09%Others, 30.35%

Source: WRI-CAIT

Page 7: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

Distribution of GHG Emissions from China in 2000

N2O,13.00%

CH4,15.70%

HFC,0.70%

PFC,0.10%

SF4,0.10%

CO2

70.30%

Agriculture21.20%

Waste,2.40%

IndustrialProcess,7.80%

CO2

70.30%

GHGEnergy Sector

Source: WRI-CAIT

Page 8: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

Projected Energy Demand to 2020, 2030, 2050

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ener

gy D

eman

d in

Chi

na M

tce

Zhou 2020 DRC 2020Zhi dong Li 2030 Xi ul i an Hu 2050

2225

1386

Rapid industrialization and urbanization are the key drivers of emissions growth

Source: CASS, 2006

Page 9: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

CDM Engagementregistered project by host party

Page 10: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

2. Policy and Actions

The first National Communication (NC) including country GHG inventories 1994 has submitted.

China is applying GEF for financial support to formulate its second NC.

National climate change strategy are under formulation and will be issued for implementation soon.

Sustainable development policies and measures that are in line with climate change convention goals are taken as the national development strategy.

Page 11: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

20% Energy Intensity Reduction Target

In 1980 prices

Ener

gy I

nten

sity

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10. 0

12. 0

14. 0

Year

t/10000yuan

(1980 price)

For the first time, controlling CO2 emissions is specified as one of the goals for the country over the next 5 years.

the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010)

Source: CASS, 2006

Page 12: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

National Objectives for Energy Diversification by 2020

Renewable Energy

• 11th Five-year Plan: 30 large scale wind farms with the capacity of 100Mw; Grid-connected wind and biomass will reach 5 Gw and 5.5 Gw respectively.

• Medium and Long term National Planning of Renewable Development: renewable energy supply 400-500 Mtce, about 1/7 of primary energy consumption, installation capacity of renewable energy30% of the total generation capacity.

Wind power: Over 60 wind farm in 15 provinces, installed capacity 504MW in 2005

Page 13: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

Deployment of Renewables Energy

Solar thermal: Production capacity 15 million m2, annual increase rate 28%

Solar PV: Installed capacity over 70 MW, annual market growth 20%

Law of Renewable Energy issued in Jan. 2005, specific measures including financial and economic incentives are under consideration

Small hydropower: over 60,000 stations of installed capacity 50GW in rural area

Biomass: 17 million household biogas digesters, over 1,600 industrial-scale biogas plants, two ethanol fuel production bases, about 500,000 tons bio-oils produced, biomass power installed capacity 2,000 MW

Page 14: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

National Objectives for Energy Diversification by 2020

Nuclear power

• capacity installation for operation 40 GW, 4% of total generation capacity, 6% of total electricity production

Natural gas

• With optimistic estimates, production will increase from 39 billion m3 in 2004 to 200 billion m3 in 2020.

Da Ya Wan nuclear power station in Guangdong

Talimu gas field in Xinjiang

Page 15: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

National CDM Fund -the First Carbon-driven Fund in China

Sources: charges on CERs from CDM projects, particularly HFC-23 projects 65% to be charged;

Objectives: helping national wide actions to address climate change including,Research and training for capacity buildingMitigation & adaptation activitiesFacilitating preparation of CDM projectOther climate change related activities

Page 16: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

3. Building together for Prosperous Future

The Government of China has stressed: “scientific

development focusing on human-centered, comprehensive,

coordinated and sustainable development, to promote the

integrated development of economy, society and humanity”.

Weather and climate affect every aspect of people’s lives and

wellbeing, and strongly affect our ability to achieve national

sustainable development goals and policies (economic, social

and environmental).

Mainstreaming climate change policy into sustainable

development strategy

Page 17: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

International Cooperation

UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and

Climate (AP6)• 6 members: US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, China and India• 8 public-private sector taskforces: to prepare a work plan and

identify flagship projects• Funding announced: Australia A$100m over 5 years, US US$52m

for 2007

G8 + 5 China-EU Other bilateral and multilateral mechanisms (China-

Canada, China-Japan, China-Brazil, China-India, China-Australia, China-USA, ……)

Page 18: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

Climate Change Mitigation Potential Projected GDP energy intensity in China, 2000-2050

0. 00

0. 50

1. 00

1. 50

2. 00

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050(tce

/100

00 y

uan

RMB)

Energy i ntensi t y/ GDP(BAU)Energy i ntensi t y/ GDP ( TAP)

Energy demand will be reduced by 27% (1708Mtce) in 2050 by technology and policy scenario compared with baseline scenario in China.

CO2 Emission in China,2050

0500

100015002000250030003500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(Mt-

C)

CO2 emi ssi on( BAU) CO2 emi ssi on( TAP)CO2 emission will be reduced by 39% (1263Mt-C)in 2050 by technology and policy scenario compared with baseline scenario in China

39%

Source: ERI, 2005

Page 19: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

NGOs promote 26 Energy Saving Action for Air Conditioner every summer℃

Engagement of Social ActorsGovernment

Civil society (NGOs, Scientific

communities, etc.)

Business

CC &SD

Costs

Regulation

New business

Reputation

Competitiveness

of Company

Page 20: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

waste FoodOne-off consumables

in hotel

over-packed moon cake

3R (Reduction, Reuse and Recycling) to build a more resources efficient and environmental friendly society

Individuals also have a role to play

Page 21: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

China’ Position Towards a post-2012 Regime

Following the principle of Common but differentiated responsibilities

Addressing Climate change under the framework of sustainable development

Taking Technology transfer and cooperation as a key to address climate change

Paying equal attention to mitigation and adaptation Intensifying international cooperation

Page 22: What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,

China is towards achieving sustainable future with the world.