What is CLIM-RUN?
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Climate services for energy production: are regional climate models reliable for future solar power generation scenarios? A. Dell’Aquila, UTMEA-CLIM, ENEA S. Calmanti, UTMEA-CLIM, ENEA M. Petitta, ENEA, Sapienza Innovazione, M. Castelli, EURAC, University of Trento
description
Climate services for energy production: are regional climate models reliable for future solar power generation scenarios? A. Dell’Aquila, UTMEA-CLIM, ENEA S. Calmanti, UTMEA-CLIM, ENEA M. Petitta, ENEA, Sapienza Innovazione, M. Castelli, EURAC, University of Trento. What is CLIM-RUN?. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of What is CLIM-RUN?
Climate services for energy production: are regional climate models reliable for future solar power generation scenarios?
A. Dell’Aquila, UTMEA-CLIM, ENEA S. Calmanti, UTMEA-CLIM, ENEA M. Petitta, ENEA, Sapienza Innovazione, M. Castelli, EURAC, University of Trento
What is CLIM-RUN?
Design and implementation of a Climate Services protocol for optimizing the two-way information transfer (bottom-up /up-bottom) between climate experts and stakeholders
Advancement of the science underpinning the production of detailed climate information at regional to local scales tailored for stakeholder needs
Test of the protocol via its application to a number of real world case studies in the Mediterranean area (mainly on Energy & Tourism and Natural hazards)
CLIM-RUN (2011-2014) Objectives
Users needsFill the Last Mile gap between
large amount of climate data and
user needs
Information
Climate Data
www.climrun.eu
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Tourism: Tunisia, France, Cyprus, Croatia
Energy: Spain, Morocco, Cyprus, Croatia
Wild Fires: Greece
Integrated Case Study: North Adriatic
What is CLIM-RUN?CLIM-RUN Case studies
Raw climate data observations, model
output, …
Raw climate data observations, model
output, …
Elaborated data
Indices, maps …
Elaborated data
Indices, maps …
Elaborated products Diagrams,
interactive maps, Tools
Elaborated products Diagrams,
interactive maps, Tools
Climate Information
sheetsTailored climate
products
Climate Information
sheetsTailored climate
products
How can I invest, manage, adapt?
How can I invest, manage, adapt?
Early involvement of stakeholders :
First Stakeholder workshops
Early involvement of stakeholders :
First Stakeholder workshops
Iterative consultation and collaboration with stakeholders
Consolidation and collective review/assessment :
Second Stakeholder workshops
Consolidation and collective review/assessment :
Second Stakeholder workshops
Downward solar radiation has been identified as one of the relevant climate variables of
interest for Energy case studies
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The Approach: ENSEMBLES DATA
The table shows the GCMs- 25Km RCMs combinations extracted from the ENSEMBLES archive to develop the CLIMRUN products on future solar power generation scenarios
ERA4
0
Had
CM3Q
16
ARPE
GE
BCM
ECH
AM5-
MPI
OM
r3
MIR
OC3
.2 h
ires
Had
CM3Q
0
C4IRCA3CNRM-RM4.5DMI-HIRAM5ETHZ-CLMICTP-RegCM3KNMI-RACMO2METNO-HIRAMMETO-HC HadRM3Q0MPI-M-REMOSMHIRCAUCLM-PROMES
Global Model
Regi
onal
Mod
el
ENSEMBLES FP6 GCMs-
RCMs MATRIX
-35 -30
-25
-20
-15
-10
- 5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
ENSEMBLES domain
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ENSEMBLES RCMs details
ENSEMBLES Scenario A1B changes (2021-2050) vs (1961-1990)
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rsds RCMs ENSEMBLES DJF
rsds RCMs ENSEMBLES JJA
rsds GCMs ENSEMBLES DJF
rsds GCMs ENSEMBLES JJA
Validation: RCMs ERA40 simulations vs NASA
Bias ENSEMBLES RCMs ERA40 vs NASA; rsds JJA
Bias ENSEMBLES RCMs ERA40 vs NASA; rsds DJF
RMSE ENSEMBLES RCMs ERA40 vs NASA; rsds JJA
RMSE ENSEMBLES RCMs ERA40 vs NASA; rsds DJF
ENSEMBLES RCMs representation of seasonal averages vs
NASA GEWEX SRB (Surface Radiation Budget, 1983-2007) 1°x1° resolution
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Validation: RCMs ERA40 simulations vs NASA
DJF
JJA
Representation of interannual variability1985-1990 1995-2000
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Validation: RCMs ERA40 simulations vs NASA
DJF
JJA
Representation of interannual variability1985-1990 1995-2000
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Climate services for energy production: are regional climate models reliable for future solar power generation scenarios?
NoConclusions
Looking forward for CORDEX (EURO & MED)
Aerosols Aerosols schemes, dynamics and chemistry Aerosols primary and secondary effects
Clouds Convection schemes Microphysical parameterization Transport from the borders (nesting)
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<RCM dependent>
<Large-scale drivers dependent>
<RCM dependent>
acknowledgment
Authors thank the support from the PV-Initative EFRE project and the FP7 CLIM-RUN project.
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www.climrun.eu
ENSEMBLES Scenario A1B Cloud cover changes (2021-2050) vs (1961-1990)
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clt RCMs ENSEMBLES DJF
clt RCMs ENSEMBLES JJA
clt GCMs ENSEMBLES DJF
clt GCMs ENSEMBLES JJA
