What-If Analysis Template

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What-If Model – Users Guide Input Template: Project Costs Segregate Capitalized and Expensed Project Costs based on the expend Include project fees Historical Financial Information Income Statement - Based on audited financial report data, categoriz Balance Sheet - Further, categorize assets, liabilities and equity i Operating Assumptions Pre-Implementation and Base Year: these are darkened to illustrate t Income Statement Assumptions are percentage changes in the current y Balance Sheet Assumptions are the assumption’s percentage of total a Post-Implementation: modeling will incorporate the company’s historical financial stateme in conjunction with inputs provided by the Quantitative Model. The financial statements provided by the client will serve as the models inputs provided by the Quantitative Model provide the variables to b projections. The What-If Model will then provide expected changes i financial statement metrics from the base assumptions. These expect target and prioritize the scenarios with the greatest expected benef will aid further discussions with management when determining furthe The model is segregated into four sections: inputs, calculations, st the input section is editable. All other sections are protected and format does have the capacity to be modified quickly. For example, financial statements cannot be fit into the current format, the curr changed to accommodate the different format. Additionally, if the o inaccurate, they can also be altered to accommodate company-specific is a description of Section One, and how particular areas operate wi these percentages by multiplying the prior year sales dollars by one each year (compounding). payable, other current liabilities, long-term notes payable, deferre stock, treasury stock, and dividend distribution to common sharehold expenses, interest expense, interest payable, notes payable, and dis financial statements use these percentages by multiplying the prior growth rate input for each year. Growth is not proportionate to sal accounts payable, unearned revenue, and current portion of long-term statements multiply the prior year dollars by one plus the growth ra product is multiplied by one plus the sales growth input for each ye proportionally with sales.

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What-If Analysis Template

Transcript of What-If Analysis Template

Page 1: What-If Analysis Template

What-If Model – Users Guide

Input Template:

Project CostsSegregate Capitalized and Expensed Project Costs based on the expenditure characteristics.Include project feesHistorical Financial InformationIncome Statement - Based on audited financial report data, categorize revenues and expenses into the broad categories provided.Balance Sheet - Further, categorize assets, liabilities and equity into the appropriate balance sheet line items provided.Operating AssumptionsPre-Implementation and Base Year: these are darkened to illustrate that they are not inputs, but calculations for information purposes.Income Statement Assumptions are percentage changes in the current year from the prior year.Balance Sheet Assumptions are the assumption’s percentage of total assets.Post-Implementation:

The What-If Model will allow a team the ability to model the potential financial impact of a variety of initiatives upon a company’s financial statements. This scenario, or “what-if”, modeling will incorporate the company’s historical financial statements and five-year projections in conjunction with inputs provided by the Quantitative Model. The historical and projected financial statements provided by the client will serve as the models “base” or “null” state. The inputs provided by the Quantitative Model provide the variables to be modeled with the client projections. The What-If Model will then provide expected changes in financial statements and financial statement metrics from the base assumptions. These expected changes allow the team to target and prioritize the scenarios with the greatest expected benefits. This prioritization will aid further discussions with management when determining further work to be performed.

The model is segregated into four sections: inputs, calculations, statements, and analysis. Only the input section is editable. All other sections are protected and read only. The model’s format does have the capacity to be modified quickly. For example, if a subject business’s financial statements cannot be fit into the current format, the current format can be appended or changed to accommodate the different format. Additionally, if the operating assumptions are inaccurate, they can also be altered to accommodate company-specific assumptions. Outlined below is a description of Section One, and how particular areas operate within the section. Sections Two – Four are protected and therefore have no operational details.

Sales revenue growth percentages are used for all projected years. The financial statements use these percentages by multiplying the prior year sales dollars by one plus the growth rate for each year (compounding).The following items’ projected years’ costs are constant (i.e. equal to the base year) and are direct inputs from historical data: other controllable expenses, other accrued expenses, taxes payable, other current liabilities, long-term notes payable, deferred taxes payable, preferred stock, treasury stock, and dividend distribution to common shareholders.

The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: R&D expenses, G&A expenses, interest expense, interest payable, notes payable, and distributions payable. The financial statements use these percentages by multiplying the prior year dollars by one plus the growth rate input for each year. Growth is not proportionate to sales.

The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: selling expenses, accounts receivable, inventory, prepaid expenses, other current assets, other noncurrent assets, accounts payable, unearned revenue, and current portion of long-term debt. The financial statements multiply the prior year dollars by one plus the growth rate input. Further, this product is multiplied by one plus the sales growth input for each year to vary these items proportionally with sales.

Page 2: What-If Analysis Template

Machinery & Equipment and Building and Plant, for all projected years, are estimated capital expenditures in whole dollars.

Intangible Asset AmortizationAdditional AssumptionsClient should provide their applicable tax rates, weighted average cost of capital, and interest rate on excess cash.Further, Asset lives and additional asset information should be captured.

Section Two – CalculationsProtected Sheet, Read-only AccessSection Three – Financial StatementsProtected Sheet, Read-only AccessSection Four - AnalysisProtected Sheet, Read-only Access

The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: selling expenses, accounts receivable, inventory, prepaid expenses, other current assets, other noncurrent assets, accounts payable, unearned revenue, and current portion of long-term debt. The financial statements multiply the prior year dollars by one plus the growth rate input. Further, this product is multiplied by one plus the sales growth input for each year to vary these items proportionally with sales.

Page 3: What-If Analysis Template

Income Statement - Based on audited financial report data, categorize revenues and expenses into the broad categories provided.Balance Sheet - Further, categorize assets, liabilities and equity into the appropriate balance sheet line items provided.

Pre-Implementation and Base Year: these are darkened to illustrate that they are not inputs, but calculations for information purposes.

The What-If Model will allow a team the ability to model the potential financial impact of a variety of initiatives upon a company’s financial statements. This scenario, or “what-if”, modeling will incorporate the company’s historical financial statements and five-year projections in conjunction with inputs provided by the Quantitative Model. The historical and projected financial statements provided by the client will serve as the models “base” or “null” state. The inputs provided by the Quantitative Model provide the variables to be modeled with the client projections. The What-If Model will then provide expected changes in financial statements and financial statement metrics from the base assumptions. These expected changes allow the team to target and prioritize the scenarios with the greatest expected benefits. This prioritization will aid further discussions with management when determining

The model is segregated into four sections: inputs, calculations, statements, and analysis. Only the input section is editable. All other sections are protected and read only. The model’s format does have the capacity to be modified quickly. For example, if a subject business’s financial statements cannot be fit into the current format, the current format can be appended or changed to accommodate the different format. Additionally, if the operating assumptions are inaccurate, they can also be altered to accommodate company-specific assumptions. Outlined below is a description of Section One, and how particular areas operate within the section. Sections Two – Four are protected and therefore have no operational details.

Sales revenue growth percentages are used for all projected years. The financial statements use these percentages by multiplying the prior year sales

The following items’ projected years’ costs are constant (i.e. equal to the base year) and are direct inputs from historical data: other controllable expenses, other accrued expenses, taxes payable, other current liabilities, long-term notes payable, deferred taxes payable, preferred stock, treasury stock, and

The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: R&D expenses, G&A expenses, interest expense, interest payable, notes payable, and distributions payable. The financial statements use these percentages by multiplying the prior year dollars by one plus the growth rate input

The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: selling expenses, accounts receivable, inventory, prepaid expenses, other current assets, other noncurrent assets, accounts payable, unearned revenue, and current portion of long-term debt. The financial statements multiply the prior year dollars by one plus the growth rate input. Further, this product is multiplied by one plus the sales growth input for each year to vary these items

Page 4: What-If Analysis Template

Machinery & Equipment and Building and Plant, for all projected years, are estimated capital expenditures in whole dollars.

Client should provide their applicable tax rates, weighted average cost of capital, and interest rate on excess cash.

The following items use growth percentage changes for all projected years: selling expenses, accounts receivable, inventory, prepaid expenses, other current assets, other noncurrent assets, accounts payable, unearned revenue, and current portion of long-term debt. The financial statements multiply the prior year dollars by one plus the growth rate input. Further, this product is multiplied by one plus the sales growth input for each year to vary these items

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STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL -- Unaudited Preliminary DraftFor discussion and review purposes only

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MODEL INPUTI

Project 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Project Costs-Capitalized 5 0 0 0 0

Project Costs-Expensed 1 1 1 1 1

Project Fees 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Date (MM/DD/YYYY) 7/1/1999

II

Historical Financial Information Pre-Implementation Base Year*

Income Statement 1996 1997 1998 1999

Sales Revenue 111,211 Net Sales Revenue 111,211 Cost of Sales 60,001 Selling Expenses 0 R&D Expenses 0 General and Administrative 7,518 Total Non-Sales Expenses 7,518 Depreciation 4,884 Amortization 0 Other Controllable Expenses 250 Interest Expense 647 Interest Income 0 Miscellaneous Income 0 Income Tax 32,631

Preferred Dividends 0

* Current or Post-Implementation Year

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MODEL INPUTHistorical Financial Information Pre-Implementation Base Year*

Balance Sheet 1996 1997 1998 1999Current Assets

Cash 1,652 Accounts Receivable 6,860 Inventory 5,472 Prepaid Expenses 875 Other Current Assets 4,790

Noncurrent AssetsMachinery and Equipment 0 Building and Plant 61,962 Accumulated Depreciation 0 Deferred Income Tax Asset 0 Other Noncurrent Assets 2,534

Intangible AssetsDeferred Fin./ License/Startup 0 Goodwill 0 Other Intangibles 0 Accumulated Amortization 0

Current LiabilitiesInterest Payable 0 Accounts Payable 0 7,677 Other Accrued Expenses 4,445 Unearned Revenue 0 Notes Payable 4,109 Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0 Taxes Payable 2,359 Distributions Payable 0 Other Current Liabilities 8,153

Noncurrent LiabilitiesLong-Term Notes 10,901 Deferred Income Tax Liability 10,939 Deferred Taxes Payable 770

Shareholder EquityRetained Earnings 49,365 Common Equity 2,822 Additional Paid-in Capital 0 Preferred Stock 668 Treasury Stock (16,977)Other Equity (1,086)Number of Shares - Common Stock 2,428

* Current or Post-Implementation Year

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MODEL INPUTIII Pre-Implementation Base Year* Post-Implementation Growth

Operating Assumptions 1996 1997 1998 1999 Benchmark 2000 2001 2002 2003

Income Statement Assumptions

Sales Revenue #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%Other Controllable Expenses 0.00% 250 250 250 250 250 R&D Expenses #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Selling Expenses #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%General and Administrative #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Projected Expenses

Interest Expense 0 0 0 647 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation PercentagesGross Margin Percentage N/A N/A N/A 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0% 46.0%Cost of Sales (% Rev) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 54% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0%

* Current or Post-Implementation Year

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2004

5.00%250

0.00%0.00%0.00%

0.0%

Post-Implementation Percentages46.0%54.0%

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MODEL INPUTPre-Implementation Base Year* Post-Implementation Growth

Operating Assumptions 1996 1997 1998 1999 Benchmark 2000 2001 2002 2003

Balance Sheet Items

Current AssetsAccounts Receivable #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%Inventory #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%Prepaid Expenses #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%Other Current Assets #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Noncurrent AssetsCapital Expenditures:

Machinery and Equipment 0 0 #DIV/0! 0% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Building and Plant 0 0 0 74% $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Other Noncurrent Assets #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Current LiabilitiesInterest Payable 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0%Accounts Payable #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%Other Accrued Expenses 0 0 0 4,445 0% 0% 0% 0%Unearned Revenue #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Notes Payable 0 0 0 4,109 0% 0% 0% 0%Current Portion of Long Term Debt #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Taxes Payable 0 0 0 2,359 0% 0% 0% 0%Distributions Payable 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0%Other Current Liabilities 0 0 0 8,153 0% 0% 0% 0%

Noncurrent LiabilitiesLong-Term Notes Payable 0 0 0 10,901 0% 0% 0% 0%Deferred Taxes Payable 0 0 0 770 0% 0% 0% 0%

Equity AssumptionsPreferred Stock 0 0 0 668 668 668 668 668 Treasury Stock 0 0 0 (16,977) (16,977) (16,977) (16,977) (16,977)

Cash Flow AssumptionsPreferred Stock Dividends 6%Dividend Distributions to Common Shareholders

Days in Year 365

* Current or Post-Implementation Year

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2004

0%0%0%0%

$0.00 $0.00

0%

0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%

0%0%

668 (16,977)

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MODEL INPUTIV

Intangible Assets Amortization PercentPeriod Amortizable

Deferred Fin./ License/Startup 10

Goodwill 40

Other Intangibles 5

Project Costs-Capitalized 10

Project Fees 10 100.00%

V

Additional Assumptions

Effective Federal Income Tax Rate 86.07%

Weighted Average Cost of Capital 10.00%

Effective State Income Tax Rate 0.00%

Interest Income Rate on Excess Cash Balances 0.00%

Asset LivesMachinery and Equipment 7

Building and Plant 15

Fair Market Value of Assets in Excess of Book:Inventory 0 Fixed Assets 0

Current Liabilities Assumed 0

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CALCULATIONSBook Depreciation Existing 2000 2001 2002

Existing Basis Life BasisMachinery and Equipment 7 0 0 0 0 Building and Plant 12.70 61,962 4,879 4,879 4,879

Total 4,879 4,879 4,879

Incremental Capital Expenditures2000 Machinery and Equipment 0 0 0 2000 Building and Plant 0 0 0

0 0 0 2001 Machinery and Equipment 0 0 2001 Building and Plant 0 0

0 0 2002 Machinery and Equipment 0 2002 Building and Plant 0

0 2003 Machinery and Equipment2003 Building and Plant

2004 Machinery and Equipment2004 Building and Plant

Total Book Depreciation 4,879 4,879 4,879

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2003 2004

0 0 ###4,879 4,879 4,879 4,879

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

4,879 4,879

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CALCULATIONSIncome Taxes 2000 2001 2002

Income from Continuing Operations 40,475 43,164 45,986

Taxable Income Before NOL 40,475 43,164 45,986

Less: NOL Utilized 0 0 0

Taxable Income 40,475 43,164 45,986

Blended

Cash Income Taxes State @ 0.00% Federal @ 86.07% 86.07% 34,837 37,151 39,581

Income Taxes, per Books 34,837 37,151 39,581

Current Year Deferred Income Tax Benefit (Expense) - Temporary Difference 0 0 0

Cumulative Deferred Income Tax Asset (Liability) 0 0 0

Net Operating Loss (“NOL”), Beginning Balance 0 0 0 Additional NOL Created 0 0 0 NOL Utilized 0 0 0 NOL, Ending Balance 0 0 0

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2003 2004

48,951 52,063

48,951 52,063

0 0

48,951 52,063

42,132 44,810

42,132 44,810

0 0

0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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CALCULATIONSIntangible Asset Amortization Existing 2000 2001 2002

Life Basis

Lic. Agr. / Def. Fin. 10 Beginning Balance 0 0 0 Amortization 0 0 0

Ending Balance 0 0 0

Goodwill 40 Beginning Balance 0 0 0 Amortization 0 0 0

Ending Balance 0 0 0

Incremental Project Expenditures

Project Costs-Capitalized 10

Project Fees 10

2000 Project Costs-Capitalized 0 1 1 2000 Project Fees 0 0 0

0 1 1 2001 Project Costs-Capitalized 0 0 2001 Project Fees 0 0

0 0

2002 Project Costs-Capitalized 0

2002 Project Fees 0

0

2003 Project Costs-Capitalized

2003 Project Fees

2004 Project Costs-Capitalized2004 Project Fees

Other Intangibles 5 Beginning Balance 0 0 0 Amortization 0 0 0

Ending Balance 0 0 0

Total Amortization 0 1 1

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2003 2004

0 0 0 0 0 0 ###

0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 ###0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1

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CALCULATIONSPre-Implementation Post-Implementation

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

SVA Income From Continuing Operations 0 0 0 37,911 40,475 43,164 45,986 Less: W.A.C.C. x (Total Noncurrent Assets + Working Capital) 0 0 0 5,740 6,300 6,897 7,534

SVA 0 0 0 32,171 34,175 36,266 38,453

NPV & IRRNet Cash Flow 9,829 10,177 10,536 Less: Total Project Costs 7 2 2

Cash Outflow/Inflow 9,823 10,175 10,535

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Post-Implementation

2003 2004###

48,951 52,063 8,212 8,933

40,739 43,130

10,914 11,310 2 2

10,912 11,309

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BALANCE SHEET (Million of Dollars)

Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation

ASSETS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Current AssetsCash 0 0 0 1,652 11,481 21,658 32,194 43,108 Accounts Receivable 0 0 0 6,860 7,203 7,563 7,941 8,338 Inventory 0 0 0 5,472 5,746 6,033 6,335 6,651 Prepaid Expenses 0 0 0 875 919 965 1,013 1,064 Other Current Assets 0 0 0 4,790 5,030 5,281 5,545 5,822

Total Current Assets 0 0 0 19,649 30,378 41,500 53,028 64,983

Noncurrent AssetsMachinery and Equipment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Building and Plant 0 0 0 61,962 61,962 61,962 61,962 61,962 Less: Accumulated Depreciation 0 0 0 0 (4,879) (9,758) (14,637) (19,516)

Net Fixed Assets 0 0 0 61,962 57,083 52,204 47,325 42,446

Deferred Income Tax Asset 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Noncurrent Assets 0 0 0 2,534 2,661 2,794 2,933 3,080

Intangible AssetsDeferred Fin./ License/Startup 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Project Costs-Capitalized 5 5 5 5 Project Fees 1 1 2 2 Other Intangibles 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Less: Accumulated Amortization (0) (1) (1) (2)

Total Intangible Assets 0 0 0 0 5 5 5 5

Total Noncurrent Assets 0 0 0 64,496 59,749 55,003 50,264 45,531

Total Assets 0 0 0 84,145 90,127 96,503 103,292 110,515

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Post-Implementation

2004

54,418 8,755 6,984 1,117 ###6,113

77,387

0 61,962

(24,394)37,568

0 3,234

0 0 5 ###3 ###0

(3)5

40,806

118,194

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BALANCE SHEET (Million of Dollars)

Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation

LIABILITIES 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Current Liabilities

Interest Payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accounts Payable 0 0 0 7,677 8,061 8,464 8,887 9,331 Other Accrued Expenses 0 0 0 4,445 4,445 4,445 4,445 4,445 Unearned Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Notes Payable 0 0 0 4,109 4,109 4,109 4,109 4,109 Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Taxes Payable 0 0 0 2,359 2,359 2,359 2,359 2,359 Distributions Payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Current Liabilities 0 0 0 8,153 8,153 8,153 8,153 8,153

Total Current Liabilities 0 0 0 26,743 27,127 27,530 27,953 28,397

Noncurrent LiabilitiesLong-Term Notes 0 0 0 10,901 10,901 10,901 10,901 10,901 Deferred Income Tax Liability 0 0 0 10,939 10,939 10,939 10,939 10,939 Deferred Taxes Payable 0 0 0 770 770 770 770 770

Total Noncurrent Liabilities 0 0 0 22,610 22,610 22,610 22,610 22,610

Total Liabilities 0 0 0 49,353 49,737 50,140 50,563 51,007

SHAREHOLDER’S EQUITY

Retained Earnings 0 0 0 49,365 54,963 60,936 67,302 74,080 Common Equity 0 0 0 1,736 1,736 1,736 1,736 1,736 Additional Paid in Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Preferred Stock 0 0 0 668 668 668 668 668 Treasury Stock 0 0 0 (16,977) (16,977) (16,977) (16,977) (16,977)Total Shareholder’s Equity 0 0 0 34,792 40,390 46,363 52,729 59,507

Total Liabilities and Shareholder’s Equity 0 0 0 84,145 90,127 96,503 103,292 110,515

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Post-Implementation

2004

0 ###9,798 4,445

0 4,109 ###

0 2,359 ###

0 ###8,153

28,864

10,901 10,939

770 22,610

51,474

81,293 1,736

0 668 ###

(16,977)###66,720

118,194

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STATEMENT OF INCOME AND RETAINED EARNINGS (Million of Dollars)

Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Sales Revenue 0 0 0 111,211 116,772 122,610 128,741 135,178 Net Sales Revenue 0 0 0 111,211 116,772 122,610 128,741 135,178 Cost of Sales 0 0 0 60,001 63,001 66,151 69,459 72,932 Gross Margin on Sales 0 0 0 51,210 53,771 56,459 59,282 62,246

Gross Margin Percentage N/A 46.05% 46.05% 46.05% 46.05% 46.05%

Expense Projections '99 ForwardProject Costs-Expensed 1 1 1 1 R&D Expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Controllable Expenses 250 250 250 250 250 Selling Expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 General and Admin Expenses 0 0 0 7,518 7,518 7,518 7,518 7,518

Total Non-Sales Expenses 0 0 0 7,768 7,769 7,769 7,769 7,769 Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depr. and Amort. 0 0 0 43,442 46,002 48,690 51,513 54,477

Depreciation 0 0 0 4,884 4,879 4,879 4,879 4,879 Amortization 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1

Total Operating Expenses 0 0 0 12,652 12,648 12,648 12,649 12,649

Earnings Before Interest and Tax (“EBIT”) 0 0 0 38,558 41,122 43,811 46,633 49,598

Total Interest Expense 0 0 0 647 647 647 647 647

Interest Income 0 0 0 0 0 Miscellaneous Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Income from Continuing Operations 0 0 0 37,911 40,475 43,164 45,986 48,951

Provision for State & Federal Tax 0 0 0 32,631 34,837 37,151 39,581 42,132 Net Income Before Dividends 0 0 0 5,280 5,638 6,013 6,406 6,819

Preferred Dividends 0 0 0 0 40 40 40 40 Net Income Available to Common Shareholders 0 0 0 5,280 5,598 5,973 6,366 6,779

Retained Earnings, Beginning of Period 0 49,365 54,963 60,936 67,302 Less: Dividends (40) (40) (40) (40)Retained Earnings, End of Period 0 0 0 5,280 54,963 60,936 67,302 74,080

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Post-Implementation2004

141,937 ###141,937

76,578 65,358

46.05%

1 ###0

250 0

7,518 7,769 ###

57,589 ###

4,879 1

12,649

52,710

647 ###

0 0 ###

52,063

44,810 7,252

40 7,212

74,080 (40)

81,293

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CASH FLOW STATEMENT (Million of Dollars)

Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Net Income Before Dividends 5,638 6,013 6,406 6,819

Adjustments to Reconcile Net Income to Cash from Operations

Project Costs-Capitalized (5) 0 0 0

Project Fees (1) (1) (1) (1)Depreciation and Amortization 4,879 4,879 4,880 4,880 Change in Accounts Receivable (343) (360) (378) (397)Change in Inventory (274) (287) (302) (317)Change in Prepaid Expenses (44) (46) (48) (51)Change in Other Current Assets (240) (251) (264) (277)

Change in Total Current Assets 0 0 0 0 (900) (945) (992) (1,042)Change in Interest Payable 0 0 0 0 Change in Accounts Payable 384 403 423 444 Change in Current Portion of Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 Accrued Expenses and Bonuses 0 0 0 0 Change in Customer Deposits 0 0 0 0

Change in Total Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0 384 403 423 444 Change in Other Noncurrent Assets (127) (133) (140) (147)Change in Deferred Income Tax 0 0 0 0 Change in Deferred Taxes Payable 0 0 0 0

Cash Provided (Used) by Operating Activities 0 0 0 0 9,869 10,217 10,576 10,954

Investing ActivitiesCapital Expenditures: 0 0 0 0

Cash Provided (Used) by Investing Activities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Financing Activities

Change in Long-Term Notes 0 0 0 0 Change in Notes Payable 0 0 0 0 Preferred Dividends (40) (40) (40) (40)

Cash Provided (Used) by Financing Activities (40) (40) (40) (40)Net Cash Flow Available to Common Shareholders 0 0 0 0 9,829 10,177 10,536 10,914

Dividend Distributions to Common Shareholders 0 0 0 0 Net Cash Flow 0 0 0 0 9,829 10,177 10,536 10,914

Cash, Beginning Balance 1,652 11,481 21,658 32,194 Cash, Ending Balance 0 0 0 0 11,481 21,658 32,194 43,108

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Post-Implementation2004

7,252

0

(1)###4,880 (417)(333)

(53)(291)

(1,094)0 ###

467 0 0 0

467 ###(154)

0 0

11,350 ###

0 0

0 0

(40)(40)

11,310

0 11,310

43,108 54,418

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ANALYSIS

Pre-Implementation Post-Implementation

Financial and Operating Ratios 1996 1997 1998 1999 Benchmark 2000 2001 2002

Liquidity RatiosCurrent Ratio (Current Assets/Current Liabilities) 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.9 Quick Ratio (Cash, Equivalents and Accounts Receivable/Current Liabilities) 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 Working Capital (Current Assets Less Current Liabilities) (7,094) 3,251 13,970 25,075

Activity RatiosSales/Average Receivables 32.4 16.6 16.6 16.6

Days in Average Receivables 11.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 Cost of Sales/Average Inventory 21.9 11.2 11.2 11.2

Days in Average Inventory 16.6 32.5 32.5 32.5 Cost of Sales/Average Accounts Payable 15.6 8.0 8.0 8.0

Days in Average Accounts Payable 23.4 45.6 45.6 45.6 Working Capital Turnover (Net Sales Revenue/(Average Working Capital) (15.7) 35.9 14.2 6.6 Fixed Asset Turnover (Net Sales Revenue/Average Net Fixed Assets) 3.6 2.0 2.2 2.6 Asset Turnover (Net Sales Revenue/Average Total Assets) 2.6 1.3 1.3 1.3

Profitability RatiosNet Income/Average Shareholder’s Equity 0.30 0.15 0.14 0.13

Growth Sales Growth 5% 5% 5%EPS 2.17 2.32 2.48 2.64

CostNI/Sales (Profit Margin) 5% 5% 5% 5%Gross Margin 46% 46% 46% 46%SG&A as a % of Sales 7% 7% 6% 6%

Capital

Assets/Sales #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 76% 77% 79% 80%

SVA 0 0 0 32,171 34,175 36,266 38,453

ProjectROI #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 15% 14% 13% 12%NPV $39,729 IRR Err:523

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Post-Implementation

2003 2004

2.3 2.7 1.8 2.2

36,586 48,523

16.6 16.6 22.0 22.0 11.2 11.2 32.5 32.5

8.0 8.0 45.6 45.6

4.4 3.3 3.0 3.5 1.3 1.2

0.12 0.11

5% 5%###2.81 2.99 ###

5% 5%###46% 46%###

6% 5%###

82% 83%

40,739 43,130

11% 11%