What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market
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What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market? Jim Letourneau, P.Geol. Big Picture Guy www.JimLetourneau.com California Resource Investment Conference February 11, 2012
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Where are we in the long term commodity cycle? While some commodities are decidedly NOT in a bull market (natural gas) most look horrible on a 3 year chart but pretty nice on a 15 year chart.
Transcript of What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market
What Happened to the Commodity Bull Market?
Jim Letourneau, P.Geol.Big Picture Guywww.JimLetourneau.com
California Resource Investment ConferenceFebruary 11, 2012
Rogers Commodity Index
Great News!
Outline
●Where are we in the cycle?●Mining cycle●Hype cycle●Prediction
2004...
TIMING?
2004...
Rogers Commodity Index
Commodity Bull Market
●Started in 1998/1999●17 Year Cycle on Average●Ending in 2016???
Rogers Agriculture
Rogers Agriculture
Rogers Energy
Rogers Energy
Oil
Natural Gas
Rogers Metals
Rogers Metals
Copper
Mine Cycle
RISK vs Project Value
History of Hype Curves
Developed by Gartner Research in 1995 and refined continuosly since.
Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications, and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities.
5 Key Points
●Technology Trigger●Peak of Inflated Expectations●Trough of Disillusionment●Slope of Enlightenment●Plateau of Productivity
Uranium Spot Price
UEX.TO
UEX
WEE.V
RVX.TO
2 Parts
Remember!
Pigs feeding at the trough of disillusionment will not be slaughtered
NASDAQ
GOLD
1966
2012
Commodity Bull Market
●Started in 1998/1999●17 Year Cycle on Average●Ending in 2016???
Commodity Bull Market
●Started in 1998/1999●17 Year Cycle on Average●Ending in 2016???
www.JimLetourneau.com
Jim Letourneau, P.Geol.Big Picture Guy
