What Future for Evidence Based Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism ? Insights from Australian...
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What Future for Evidence Based Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism? Insights from Australian
Experience
Andrew BeerCentre for Housing Urban and Regional Planning
The University of Adelaide
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Agenda
• Australia as a neoliberal nation• Housing under neoliberalism • Australian housing policy under neoliberalism
– Case study one: the National Rental Affordability Scheme
– Case study two: (Re)counting the homeless• The future of evidence based policy• Conclusions
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Australia as a Neoliberal Nation • Australia
– A ‘liberal’ welfare regime (Epsing Anderson 1990)• And a Federation, not a unitary state
– Deregulation of the economy and working conditions from the mid 1980s under the Hawke/Keating Governments
– Election of the deeply conservative Howard Coalition Governments from 1996-2007
– Limited political or Treasury ‘buy in’ to housing programs and assistance despite the programs of the Rudd Labor Governments from 2007-10
• Australia therefore as a model for the UK, post the Cameron election
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Australia as a Neoliberal Nation: Public Sector Outlays as a Percentage of GDP
0
5
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30
35
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45
1965
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1975
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Year
Per C
ent o
f GDP
Australia
OECD Total
OECD America
OECD Europe
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Australia as a Neoliberal Nation • Key dimensions of Australian neoliberalism
– A preference for market based solutions to questions of economy and society
• Eg outsourcing of employment services• A ‘workfare’ state that does not accept persons out of paid
employment • Larner (2005) notes that neoliberalism does not reduce public sector
outlays, simply reshapes those outlays– Importantly, a reliance on the housing market to accommodate
the population, and limited direct intervention• Unless forced by politics • Public housing as anathema, as seen to discourage labour force
participation
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• Where Have all the Houses Gone?Mal Brough, Minister for Family and Community Services, 2007
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Where Have all the Houses Gone?Mal Brough, Minister for Family and Community Services, 2007
Figure 1. Total Stock of Public Housing in Australia, 1999-2000 to 2004-05.
385000
390000
395000
400000
405000
410000
1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
Year
Tota
l Sto
ck o
f Pub
lic H
ousi
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Source: Department of Family and Community Services, Housing Assistance Act 1996,
Annual Report, Various Years.
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• Significant policy failures:– Reduction in social housing supply and escalating
waiting lists – Rampant affordability problems in the major Australian
capital cities – Significant under-supply of housing relative to
need/demand (NHSC 2009 & 2011)– Indigenous housing
• Overcrowiding• Home ownership rate half that of non Indigenous Australians
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Policy Failure:Percentage of Households in the Bottom 40 Per Cent of the Income Distribution Paying 30
Per cent or More for their Housing
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1996 2001 2006
Census Year
Per C
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Per Cent of Low IncomePurchasing Households
Per Cent of Low Income TenantHouseholds
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Policy Failure: Percentage of Households in the Top 60 Per Cent of the Income Distribution Paying 30 Per cent or More for their Housing
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996 2001 2006
Census Year
Perc
enta
ge o
f Hou
seho
lds
Number of Upper IncomePurchasing Households
Number of Upper Income TenantHouseholds
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• Neoliberalism only allows one solution– But what happens when that solution fails?– Productivity Commission (2004) noted structural
causes underpinning affordability problems • But rejected by Treasury
• Anne Tiernan and Terry Burke – Kingdon’s Garbage-Can theory of policy
• But who is to take out the garbage?• Who is to replace the garbage?
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• Case study - the National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS) – Government subsidies to private landlords to
provide new rental properties at 80% of market rent
• Subsidies for 10 years• Loosely based on an Australian interpretation of
European models • Much researched topic – Gavin Wood, Nicole Gurran
etc
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• NRAS – Product of a coalition of industry groups,
academics and social welfare activists who united under the title “Australians for Affordable Housing”
• Fronted by Julian Disney – Kevin Rudd in 2007 committed to providing 50,000
NRAS dwellings by 2010• Added another 50,000 as part of the Nation Building
Economic Stimulus package of 2008-09– With Treasury as the leading proponent
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• High level of take up of NRAS properties– Pressure to extend the scheme and concerns over
the 10 year time horizon – But current pressure comes from outside
government, not from internal voices • Current priority of the Federal Government is to return
the budget to surplus (May) in 2012-13• But other opportunities for initiatives will arise in later
fiscal years, especially 2013-14 as the government moves to elections
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• ‘Homelessness as a national shame’
• Addressing homelessness as part of a social inclusion agenda
• Substantial commitment of funds under the NAHA – A specific National Partnership -
$800m– The Road Home – aims to halve
overall homelessness • Which raises some very interesting
policy challenges around enumeration
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• (Re) Counting the Homeless– Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases an estimate of
homeless population on Census night using a method developed by Chamberlain and McKenzie
• Conventionally around 100,000ish, in 2006 – 105,000– ABS has always worked hand in hand with Chamberlain and
McKenzie and publish the estimates – The Road Home brings that estimate into greater focus
• From 2009 the ABS began to revisit the homelessness numbers – Produced a new methodology and estimate based on the 2006
Census of 64,000 persons
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Australian Housing Policy Under Neoliberalism
• Recounting the homeless creates a policy conundrum:– 64k or 105k who knows? But many care
• For the Gillard Labor Government it looks like ‘lies, damn lies and statistics’
• Recounting the homeless emphasises the political context of research findings– The recount is a liability for the Gillard Labor Government – But potentially and asset for an Abbot Coalition
Government
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The future of evidence based policy
• Context – Neoliberalism contains an embedded paradox: the
more it emphasises market based solutions, the more likely public expenditure decisions will be based on political imperatives
– Neoliberal governments enter government with ideological positions that fail
• There is no Plan B
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The future of evidence based policy
• Where does the future lie for evidence based policy and research in housing: – In being part of the process that takes garbage in and
garbage out• HomeStart • Competing and contesting policy agendas
– In working with a coalition of like-minded actors • Industry, civil society institutions, academia • In anticipating the deficits in current policy settings and in
anticipating the need to both monitor and develop alternatives
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The future of evidence based policy
• From a researcher’s perspective – It is an environment that is more chaotic but with
greater opportunities • Number of housing researchers in Australia has grown
– Greater diversity of research partners as ‘big society’ policies generate larger welfare institutions
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Conclusions
• Neoliberalism changes housing policy– It is not a change for good
• It generates new opportunities for researchers– but fewer for policy makers in government service
• It is possible to get good outcomes for those in housing need, but the pathways are now more arduous, more complex and require multiple partners