What does a national recession mean for Roanoke? 26 January 2009 Roanoke, Virginia Presented by Jon...

What does a national recession mean for Roanoke?

26 January 2009Roanoke, Virginia

Presented by

Jon RobertsTIP Strategies, Inc.

Austin, Texas

Agenda

• Who is TIP?• The national picture – how bad is bad?• What’s right about Roanoke?• The regional response and the federal

agenda• Discussion

Who is TIP?

Strategic Planning

Industry Cluster Analysis

Workforce Development

Entrepreneurship

Site Selection & Analysis

Defense Communities

TIP Strategies

TIP framework

Focus onEconomic Vitality

US

CanadaUK

Netherlands

TIP project footprint

So why are you here?

The National Picture

Demographic and Industry Trends

us | a labor crisis approaches

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

2,000,000

2,250,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Projected Net Annual Change in the Working Age Population (18-64)Average Annual Job Creation Since 1990

SOURCES: TIP Strategies; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

-3

-2

-1

+0

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

NOTE: Year-over-year change on data that are not seasonally adustedSOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (accessed via Moody's Analytics); National Bureau of Economic Research

-3

-2

-1

+0

+1

+2

+3

+4

+5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

NOTE: Year-over-year change on data that are not seasonally adustedSOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (accessed via Moody's Analytics); National Bureau of Economic Research

us | private sector employment

Trend: U.S. Manufacturing Employment

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Ma

nu

fac

turi

ng

Jo

bs

Ad

de

d

or

Lo

st

(in

mill

ion

s)

14.417.8

58.6

20.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

empl

oym

ent (

in m

illion

s)

manufacturingservices

SOURCES: US Bureau Labor Statistics; Economy.com

US | manufacturing vs. services

The shock of recent events

• Housing sector decline• Energy price volatility • Financial crisis (credit & liquidity)• Currency fluctuations

Economic effects

• Rising unemployment (while talent availability declines)

• Retail sector contraction• Continuing decline in housing

• Automotive sector consolidation & retrenchment

• Inability of businesses to expand

• Declining IPOs mean less venture investment

• Overall reduction in business start-ups

• Tightening credit availability for municipalities

• Reduction in exports due to weak European markets

Recessionary Trends

Based on employment gain and loss, real estate trends, income

Net Change in Jobs, Nov 2007 - Nov 2008

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s Analytics.

1

2

3

4

5

City Net Jobs % Jobs

1 Houston, TX 54,300 2.1%

2 Dallas, TX 46,900 1.6%

3 Washington, DC 31,100 1.0%

4 Seattle, WA 19,900 1.1%

5 San Antonio, TX 16,600 2.0%

5 Phoenix, AZ -57,600 -3.0%

4 Los Angeles, CA -58,800 -1.0%

3 Miami, FL -59,300 -2.4%

2 Atlanta, GA -67,800 -2.7%

1 Detroit, MI -72,600 -3.7%

54

3

2

1

Roanoke

Percent Change in Jobs, Nov 2007 - Nov 2008

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via Moody’s Analytics.

City Net Jobs % Jobs

1 Jacksonville, NC 2,300 4.9%

2 McAllen, TX 8,300 3.9%

3 Grand Junction, CO 2,200 3.4%

4 Laredo, TX 2,600 3.0%

5 College Station, TX 2,600 2.8%

5 Yuba City, CA -1,800 -4.3%

4 St. George, UT -2,500 -4.6%

3 Yuma, AZ -2,900 -5.3%

2 Elkhart, IN -7,000 -5.4%

1 Flint, MI -9,400 -6.3%

1

2

3

4

5

5

4

3

2

1

Roanoke

Stocks Fall to 7,500 – Have we Reached Bottom?

April 1, 2009

Retail sales stubbornly refuse to rebound: 250,000 stores shuttered

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

•Unemployment Rate Doubles Over Last Year – August 8, 2009Jobless Rate Doubles to 10.2% : March 2008 – March 2009

What’s Right about Roanoke?

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

history projection

POPULATION GROWTH, 1970-2030Roanoke MSA

SOURCE: US Census Bureau (history); Moody's Analytics (projections)

Rapid population growth forecasted

Attractive to retirees

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Seniors (65+)

Experienced Working Age (35-64)

Young Adult (20-34)

Youth (0-19)

History Projection

SOURCE: US Census Bureau (history); Moody's Analytics (projections)

AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION, 1980-2030Roanoke MSA

Roanoke is a destination

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Domestic MigrationImmigrationNatural Increase (births minus deaths)

SOURCE: US Census Bureau (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

COMPONENTS OF NET POPULATION CHANGERoanoke MSA

Close links to Lynchburg & Blacksburg

WHO'S MOVING WHERE?

Destinations of Former ResidentsFrom Roanoke to… Number Percent of TotalLynchburg, VA MSA 1,081 12.6%Blacksburg, VA MSA 507 5.9%Richmond, VA MSA 248 2.9%Charlotte, NC MSA 139 1.6%Washington, DC MSA 127 1.5%

Origins of New ResidentsTo Roanoke from… Number Percent of TotalLynchburg, VA MSA 1,094 11.0%Blacksburg, VA MSA 543 5.5%Richmond, VA MSA 198 2.0%Washington, DC MSA 191 1.9%Virginia Beach/Norfolk, VA MSA 101 1.0%

SOURCE: US Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)

Top 2007 destinations of those leaving the Roanoke MSA and top orgins of those moving in…

Job base is well-diversifiedDISTRIBUTION OF THE ROANOKE MSA JOB BASE…by industry sector

Industry sector Share of all jobs in the MSARetail trade 12.3%Manufacturing 10.3%Local government 6.6%Administrative services 6.1%Accommodation & food services 6.1%Personal & other services 5.9%Professional & technical services 4.8%Finance & insurance 4.8%Real estate 3.8%Corporate & regional headquarters 2.0%Federal government (civilian) 1.7%State government 1.7%Information 1.6%Arts, entertainment, & recreation 1.5%Farms 1.2%Federal government (military) 0.5%

SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (accessed via Moody's Analytics)NOTE: Comparable data were unavailable for some sectors, including healthcare, educational services, and transportation/warehousing

Most key sectors are growingJOB DYNAMICS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR, 2001-2006Roanoke MSA

2006 2001-2006Industry sector Jobs Net ChangeAdministrative services 12,593 +3,287Real estate 7,773 +2,349Personal & other services 12,183 +1,287Local government 13,643 +961Accommodation & food services 12,568 +872Retail trade 25,233 +357State government 3,443 +289Arts, entertainment, & recreation 3,076 +213Finance & insurance 9,791 +180Farms 2,423 -96Federal government (military) 1,016 -110Information 3,305 -243Professional & technical services 9,903 -284Corporate & regional headquarters 4,196 -344Federal government (civilian) 3,539 -362Manufacturing 21,226 -974


2004 – 2006 strong years for key sectorsJOB DYNAMICS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR, YEAR BY YEARRoanoke MSA

2001-2006Industry sector Net ChangeAdministrative services +3,287Real estate +2,349Personal & other services +1,287Local government +961Accommodation & food services +872Retail trade +357State government +289Arts, entertainment, & recreation +213Finance & insurance +180Farms -96Federal government (military) -110Information -243Professional & technical services -284Corporate & regional headquarters -344Federal government (civilian) -362Manufacturing -974


-3,0

00

-2,0

00

-1,0

00

+0

+1

,000

+2

,000

20022003200420052006

Major Area Employers

1 Carilion Clinic 2 Roanoke City Public Schools3 Roanoke County Public Schools4 Commonwealth of Virginia5 City of Roanoke6 Kroger7 Wachovia8 Norfolk Southern9 Wal-Mart Stores10 Veterans Administration Hospital

11 Franklin County Public Schools12 Advance Auto Parts13 United States Government14 Allstate15 Lewis-Gale Medical Center16 M W Manufacturers Inc17 Roanoke County, VA18 United Parcel Service19 Yokohama Tire Corp20 Manpower Temporary Services

What’s right about Roanoke?talent, innovation, place

• TALENTwhy it matters:– linked to income growth generally– correlation to new business formationhow you measure it:– educational attainment– occupational composition


• INNOVATIONwhy it matters:– linked to profitability– promotes competitivenesshow you measure it:– R&D investment– Patents, contracts, alliances


• PLACEwhy it matters:– linked to school quality, public safety, connectivity– demonstrates civic commitmenthow you measure it:– property values & appreciation rates – Rebecca Ryan’s seven indices– “from inside and outside”

Regional Responses

Risks and liabilities

• Declining wealth of retirees• Over-reliance on non-primary employment• Weak IT and professional service sector• Unfocused marketing

What does a forward-looking community do in a recession?

• retain and consolidate• position• secure federally-funded infrastructure projects• launch sustainability initiatives

Discussion

7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305Austin, TX 78731

512.343.9113 tel512.343.9190 fax

www.TIPstrategies.com

[email protected]

Thank You

TIP Strategies, Inc.

What does a national recession mean for Roanoke? 26 January 2009 Roanoke, Virginia Presented by Jon...

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