Understanding What Mr. K. NASA/GRC/LTP Edited: Ruth Petersen Numbers Tell Us.
What Do the Numbers Tell Us?
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What Do the Numbers Tell Us?
David CroweChief Economist
ULI Terwilliger Center for Housing
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Comparable Progress To DateCurrent Production Relative to 2000-2002 Levels
Remodeling Multifamily Single-family0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.02
0.66
0.38
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What’s taking single-family so long?
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Household Formations
Households Owner Renter
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,335
1,134
202
589
-222
810
2001-2006 2007-2012
(000s)
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Employment Levels – Subpar increases
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3598
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
60-61 69-70 73-75 80-82 90-91 2001 2007-09
Index, end of recession = 100
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High Delinquency Inventory But VariesFL MD
DE
WA
NY
UT
OR
SC
NC MI
NM LA ME
TN WI
AZ
MO
MS
KY TX OK VT
WV
NE
SD
ND
0123456789
1011121314151617181920
Six states with more than oneyear’s inventory of distressed properties
24 states with less than six months inventoryof distressed properties
Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies
U.S. = 8.4 months
Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies month’s supply at annual sales rate
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00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1290
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
Case-ShillerFHFANARFlow of Funds
Index, 2000Q1 = 100
House Prices Have Yet to ReboundMeasures of house prices
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Credit Standards Still Very Tight
Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12700
710
720
730
740
750
760
770Closed Denied
FICO Scores of Closed vs Denied Conventional Purchase Loans
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Builders Losing a Sale Because of Appraisal
Yes, 33%
No; 67%
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Housing Permits By Current Performance - MSAs
Top Middle Bottom0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
20%
32%
48%
37%34%
28%
'Normal' Current
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Policy Uncertainties
Dodd-Frank regulationsQM – what is a mortgage?QRM – what is a safe mortgage?
Tax reformMortgage interest deductionMarginal tax rates
Debt/deficit reductionLess government spending.. where?Reduced tax breaks
GSE futureWhen, how, what?
Election
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Questions?Answers: www.housingeconomics.comeyeonhousing.wordpress.com