What are the characteristics of people who come to...
Transcript of What are the characteristics of people who come to...
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
What are the characteristics of people who cometo Airexpo?
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre
ENAC
May 21, 2014
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Who comes to Airexpo?
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Data Gathering
Google docs survey
31 questions - 27 to be used for the modelExport in MS Excel format, conversion to .csv format forEViewsPublished on the official Airexpo Facebook page
Incentive for answering:
Two tickets for Airexpo 2014A pack of Airexpo-branded goodies
Result: 532 answers (!)
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Data Gathering
Google docs survey
31 questions - 27 to be used for the modelExport in MS Excel format, conversion to .csv format forEViewsPublished on the official Airexpo Facebook page
Incentive for answering:
Two tickets for Airexpo 2014A pack of Airexpo-branded goodies
Result: 532 answers (!)
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Data Gathering
Google docs survey
31 questions - 27 to be used for the modelExport in MS Excel format, conversion to .csv format forEViewsPublished on the official Airexpo Facebook page
Incentive for answering:
Two tickets for Airexpo 2014A pack of Airexpo-branded goodies
Result: 532 answers (!)
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Explanatory variables and expected results
variables expected effect
gender -age +/-
occupation ?car +
how will come ?Ae knowledge +ae how learn ?
location know +know stu +free 12 +
entrance price +shuttle +
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Explanatory variables and expected results
variables expected effect
already airshow +times a year +
where come from -eco -
passion +flights +
no flights +vertigo ?
week end +org +
fb friends +results +prize +
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Answers - Dependent variable
Figure : Histogram of the answers to “How many times did you come toAirexpo”
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Answers
No Issues with the correlation between variables
Possible issues of reverse-causality with some variables
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
First model - Equation
The equation used for this model is:
HOW MANY TIMES = β1 + β2GENDER + β3AGE
+ β4OCCUPATION + β5CAR + β6HOW WILL COME
+ β7AE KNOWLEDGE + β8AE HOW LEARN
+ β9LOCATION KNOW + β10KNOW STU
+ β11FREE 12 + β12ENTRANCE PRICE
+ β13SHUTTLE + β14ALREADY AIRSHOW
+ β15TIMES A YEAR + β16WHERE COME FROM
+ β17ECO + β18PASSION + β19FLIGHTS
+ β20WEEK END + β21ORG + β22FB FRIENDS
+ β23RESULTS + β24PRIZE
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
First model - coefficients
Figure : Coefficients for the model
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Second model - Equation
The equation used for this model is:
HOW MANY TIMES = β1 + β2GENDER + β3AGE
+ β4OCCUPATION + β5CAR + β6HOW WILL COME
+ β7AE KNOWLEDGE + β8AE HOW LEARN
+ β9LOCATION KNOW + β10KNOW STU
+ β11FREE 12 + β12ENTRANCE PRICE
+ β13SHUTTLE + β14ALREADY AIRSHOW
+ β15TIMES A YEAR + β16WHERE COME FROM
+ β17ECO + β18ECO2 + β19PASSION + β20FLIGHTS
+ β21WEEK END + β22ORG + β23FB FRIENDS
+ β24RESULTS + β25PRIZE
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Second model - coefficients
Figure : Coefficients for the model
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Coefficient effects
variables expected effect real effect
gender - -age +/- +
occupation ? +car + +
how will come ? +Ae knowledge + +ae how learn ? +
location know + +know stu + +free 12 + +
entrance price + +shuttle + +
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Coefficient effects
variables expected effect real effect
already airshow + -times a year + +
where come from - -eco - -
passion + +flights + -
no flights + -vertigo ? +
week end + -org + +
fb friends + -results + +prize + +
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Ramsey RESET test
Figure : Ramsey RESET test results
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Residual
Figure : Residual from the model
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Heteroskedasticity Test
Figure : Heteroskedasticity test results (White)
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Table of Contents
1 Introduction
2 Data gathering & expected results
3 Preliminary analysis
4 Model
5 Conclusion
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (1)
A good amount of data collected - giving an incentive doeshelp
A fairly good model overall
Assumptions on the data are globally appropriate
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (1)
A good amount of data collected - giving an incentive doeshelp
A fairly good model overall
Assumptions on the data are globally appropriate
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (1)
A good amount of data collected - giving an incentive doeshelp
A fairly good model overall
Assumptions on the data are globally appropriate
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (2)
Figure : Forecast model over observations
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?
IntroductionData gathering & expected results
Preliminary analysisModel
Conclusion
Conclusion (3)
Would you have any questions?
Michael Stewart & Vincent Depierre What are the characteristics of people who come to Airexpo?