Western Water Supply & NWS Water Resources
description
Transcript of Western Water Supply & NWS Water Resources
Western Water Supply&
NWS Water Resources
Kevin Werner, Lisa Holts, Drew Peterson, CBRFCAndrew Murray, WRHDon Laurine, NWRFC
Jay Breidenbach, WFO BoiseAlan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC
Ross Wolford, MBRFCTony Anderson, ABRFCPaul McKee, WGRFC
Jim Noel, OHRFCMary Mullusky, OCWWS
NWS Western Water Supply /Water Resources Outlook
2008 version 2009 version:www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
• Easy to understand• Meaningful• Accessible from forecasts• Dynamically generated plots from database
Data VisualizationExamine and get a feel for the data.Are there patterns in the data?• Historical• Streamflow Histogram• Scatterplot
Examine through lead time or water year. Are some data sources better than others? Are forecasts improving over time?• Mean Absolute Error• Root Mean Square Error• Root Mean Squared Error Skill Score
Error and Skill Score
Forecast Uncertainty
Do the forecast track extreme years? Are forecasts improved with lead time?• Probability of Detection• False Alarm Rate• Contingency Table
Categorical
How does the basin act from year to year? Is there a general trend?• Lag -1 Climate Variability
Climate Variability
Examine the forecast exceedance values.Are the bounds too high or too low?• Rank Histogram
• Dynamic– Graph changes on click– Mouse-over displays info about graph
• Threshold– Default is Climatology / Historical
Average (KAF)
• Graph Options– Any Combination of Options– Different options based on
statistic chosen
• Early Verification Successes:• First systematic look at water supply
forecast verification• CBRFC using to drive developments
for water supply forecast program• Customers using to inform decisions
and validate forecasts
•ESP reforecasts made over 1980-2005 with no forecaster intervention•Compared to archived official forecasts and tools•Suggests well calibrated continuous RFC models could be the foundation of water supply forecast system•Important implications for future of water supply forecast process
KeyVerificationResult #1:
ESP generally outperforms all other
forecasts
•Reasons not well understood•2000s have been drier than previous years•Forecasters have increasingly leveraged ESP
KeyVerificationResult #2:
Forecasts have generally improved in recent years
1992-2000
2001-2008
KeyVerificationResult #3:
Categorical skill is near perfect for low years but
not so good for high years
Below
Above
- 0.5%/ Year- 0.5% Change
by 2011
- 0.5%/ Year- 0.5%*4 Change
by 2015
Yearly
Monthly
Spaghetti Box
Climate Change Scenarios
Future DirectionsClimate Change
Scenarios
Short Range Hydrologic Scenarios
Forecast Ensemble Adjustment
Web Site Improvements
Link to Drought Services
Enhanced Ensemble Services for drought and water resources
Leverage monthly / seasonal precipitation
Expanded ESP verification
Water Supply Tools
Water Resource Tools
Map
Map
Forecasts
Outlook
Ensemble Forecasts
Verification
Verification
Climate Change
Data
Data
About
Flood Risk-3 months-Weekly
Accumulate Over Time:-Months-Seasons-Year
Risk of Low Flow:-Daily mean-Week mean-Month mean
Peak Flow:-Flow-Time to peak
Time Domain:-Start-End
Future Steps
- Spring strategy meeting for developers - Possible developments: - Revisit database schema and identify new datasets needed - Identify new WRO capabilities such as including forecast streamflow percentile on map, ESP verification, conversions to mean daily flow, gridded monthly NCDC precipitation, etc - How to incorporate new items and make it more SIMPLE at the same time - Solicit / engage user community for feedback, requirements, etc.