Western Air Quality - Critical Infrastructure Spring 2005 WESTAR Business Meeting May 5, 2005.
WESTAR Workshop November 2005 Understanding the Critical Loads Approach.
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Transcript of WESTAR Workshop November 2005 Understanding the Critical Loads Approach.
PSD program was intended to protect against effects that may occur notwithstanding attainment of NAAQS
preserve, protect and enhance the air quality in national parks, national wilderness areas, national monuments, national seashores, and other areas of special national or regional natural, recreational, scenic, or historic value.”
Independent and complimentary FLM mandates to conserve natural and cultural resources “unimpaired” for the enjoyment of future generations.
Protecting Clean Air and Air Quality Related Values: PSD and Other Mandates
Success is …Success is …
Economic growth occurring without Economic growth occurring without compromising clean air, especially in compromising clean air, especially in national parks and wilderness areasnational parks and wilderness areas
Effective protection of air quality and Effective protection of air quality and resources affected by air quality in Class I resources affected by air quality in Class I and II areasand II areas
Is It Working?Is It Working?
Technology-forcing requirements have limited pollution Technology-forcing requirements have limited pollution increasesincreasesFLMs knowledge of how air pollution affects resources FLMs knowledge of how air pollution affects resources has increased signifcantly, but is far from completehas increased signifcantly, but is far from completeEfforts to MANAGE the clean air resource are primarily Efforts to MANAGE the clean air resource are primarily limited to NSRlimited to NSR““Periodic” review of increment consumption hasn’t Periodic” review of increment consumption hasn’t occurred in most states occurred in most states Air quality in many Class I areas is deteriorating and Air quality in many Class I areas is deteriorating and scenic and natural resources are experiencing adverse scenic and natural resources are experiencing adverse effectseffectsFramework doesn’t fit the problems occurringFramework doesn’t fit the problems occurring
Im proving Trend, p<=0.05
Im proving Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, p<=0.05
No Trend
Trends in Haze Index (Deciview) on Haziest Days, 1995-2004FY2005 Annual Performance Report for NPS Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA)
Air Quality Goal Ia3
10/28/2005
Acadia
Badlands
Bandelier
Big Bend
Bryce Canyon
Canyonlands
Chiricahua
Crater Lake
Gila Cliff
Glacier
Great Bas in
Grand Canyon
Great Sand Dunes
Great Sm oky Mtns
Guadalupe Mtns
Lassen Volcanic
Mam m oth CaveMesa Verde
Mount Rainier
Petrified Fores t
Pinnacles
Redwood
Rocky Mountain
Sequoia Shenandoah
Tonto
Washington
Yellows tone
Yosem ite
Denali
Improving Trend, p<=0.05
Improving Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, p<=0.05
No Trend
Trends in Haze Index (Deciview) on Clearest Days, 1995-2004FY2005 Annual Performance Report for NPS Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA)
Air Quality Goal Ia3
10/28/2005
Acadia
Badlands
Bandelier
Big Bend
Bryce CanyonCanyonlands
Chiricahua
Crater Lake
Gila Cliff
Glacier
Great Bas in
Grand Canyon
Great Sand Dunes
Great Smoky Mtns
Guadalupe Mtns
Lassen Volcanic
Mammoth CaveMesa Verde
Mount Rainier
Petrified Fores t
Pinnacles
Redwood
Rocky Mountain
Sequoia
Shenandoah
Tonto
Washington
Yellowstone
Yosem ite
Denali
Improving Trend, p<=0.05
Improving Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, p<=0.05
No Trend
Trends in Ammonium Nitrate Particulate Concentrations on Haziest Days, 1995-2004
11/02/2005
Acadia
Badlands
Bandelier
Big Bend
Bryce Canyon
Bridger
Brigantine
Canyonlands
Chassahowitzka
Chiricahua
Columbia River
Crater Lake
Dolly Sods
Gila Cliff
Glacier
Great Bas in
Grand Canyon
Great Sand Dunes
Great Sm oky Mtns
Guadalupe Mtns
JarbidgeLassen Volcanic
Lye Brook
Mam m oth Cave
Mesa Verde
Moosehorn
Mount Rainier
Mt. Zirkel
Okefenokee
Petrified Fores t
Pinnacles
Redwood
Cape Rom ain
Rocky Mountain
San Gorgonio
Sequoia
Shenandoah
Shining Rock
Snoqualm ie Pass
Three Sis ters
Tonto
Upper Buffalo
Washington
Weminuche
Yellowstone
Yosem ite
Denali
Im proving Trend, p<=0.05
Im proving Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, p<=0.05
No Trend
Trends in NO3 Concentrations in Precipitation, 1995-2004FY2005 Annual Performance Report for NPS Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA)
Air Quality Goal Ia3
10/12/2005
Acadia
Bandelier
Big Bend
Bryce Canyon
Buffalo
Canyonlands
Capulin Volcano
Craters of the Moon
Everglades
Gila Cliff
Glacier
Great Bas in
Grand Canyon Great Sm oky Mtns
Guadalupe Mtns
Indiana Dunes
Is le Royale
Little Bighorn
Mesa Verde
Mount Rainier
North CascadesOlym pic
Organ Pipe
Rocky Mountain
Shenandoah
Virgin Is lands
Yellows tone
Yosem ite
Denali
Im proving Trend, p<=0.05
Im proving Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15
Degrading Trend, p<=0.05
No Trend
Trends in NH4 Concentrations in Precipitation, 1995-2004FY2005 Annual Performance Report for NPS Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA)
Air Quality Goal Ia3
10/12/2005
Acadia
Bandelier
Big Bend
Bryce Canyon
Buffalo
Canyonlands
Capulin Volcano
Craters of the Moon
Everglades
Gila Cliff
Glacier
Great Bas in
Grand Canyon Great Sm oky Mtns
Guadalupe Mtns
Indiana Dunes
Is le Royale
Little Bighorn
Mesa Verde
Mount Rainier
North CascadesOlym pic
Organ Pipe
Rocky Mountain
Shenandoah
Virgin Is lands
Yellowstone
Yosem ite
Denali
EFFECTS OF ATMOPSHERIC EFFECTS OF ATMOPSHERIC DEPOSITIONDEPOSITION
Forms: Wet (rain, snow), dry and clouds Forms: Wet (rain, snow), dry and clouds Acidifies soils and surface watersAcidifies soils and surface watersChanges soil processesChanges soil processesCan cause eutrophication (nitrogen only)Can cause eutrophication (nitrogen only)Causes shifts in plant community composition and Causes shifts in plant community composition and diversity (nitrogen only)diversity (nitrogen only)– Increase in native or exotic grasses, other invasive plants Increase in native or exotic grasses, other invasive plants – Altered fire cycles (due to greater fuel loads caused by N Altered fire cycles (due to greater fuel loads caused by N
fertilization)fertilization)– Increased susceptibility to pests and other stressesIncreased susceptibility to pests and other stresses
Increases availability of aluminum (which can be toxic to Increases availability of aluminum (which can be toxic to plants and animals)plants and animals)
Purposes of PSD Program More Purposes of PSD Program More Likely to be Achieved thru…Likely to be Achieved thru…
More attention to cumulative impacts on More attention to cumulative impacts on ENVIRONMENTENVIRONMENT– improved partnership between FLM & States, improved partnership between FLM & States,
including shared recognition of value of including shared recognition of value of assessing and addressing cumulative impacts assessing and addressing cumulative impacts on AQRVs on AQRVs
More direct link between regulatory More direct link between regulatory framework and desired outcome framework and desired outcome
“Critical loads” define desired condition: “The quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge.” (Nilsson and Grennfelt 1988)
“Target loads” to track progress: The level of exposure to one or more pollutants that results in an acceptable level of resource protection; may be based on political, economic, or temporal considerations.
Critical Load Approach Links Air Critical Load Approach Links Air Quality Management to Ecological Quality Management to Ecological
EffectsEffects
Scientific Approaches to Develop Scientific Approaches to Develop Critical LoadsCritical Loads
NPS research on sensitive receptors and NPS research on sensitive receptors and endpoints ongoing at:endpoints ongoing at:– Rocky Mountain NP, Glacier NP, Yellowstone NP, Rocky Mountain NP, Glacier NP, Yellowstone NP,
Grand Teton NP, Great Sand Dunes NPGrand Teton NP, Great Sand Dunes NP– Shenandoah NP, Great Smoky Mountains NPShenandoah NP, Great Smoky Mountains NP– Mount Rainier NP, North CascadesMount Rainier NP, North Cascades– Big Bend NP, Joshua Tree NPBig Bend NP, Joshua Tree NP
Modeling being tested at: Modeling being tested at: – Rocky Mountain, Great Smoky, Mt Rainier, Acadia Rocky Mountain, Great Smoky, Mt Rainier, Acadia
and Joshua Treeand Joshua Tree
Other FLMs also conducting empirical studies Other FLMs also conducting empirical studies and modeling to establish critical loads and modeling to establish critical loads
Increased communication and collaboration between land Increased communication and collaboration between land managers and scientists on resource management needs, managers and scientists on resource management needs, sensitive resources, relevant indicators and endpoints to meet sensitive resources, relevant indicators and endpoints to meet resource protection goals. resource protection goals.
Identify/refine appropriate models for estimating critical loads Identify/refine appropriate models for estimating critical loads in both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystemsin both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems
Using critical loads as a resource management tool and performance Using critical loads as a resource management tool and performance measuremeasure– Defining desired conditionsDefining desired conditions– Assessing current conditions and tracking progress Assessing current conditions and tracking progress
Explore opportunities for using critical loads in air regulatory Explore opportunities for using critical loads in air regulatory planning processes at the national, state, and local level thru a planning processes at the national, state, and local level thru a ccooperative conservation approachooperative conservation approach– ““EPA recognizes that a State may choose to utilize a critical load EPA recognizes that a State may choose to utilize a critical load
concept as part of its air quality management approach to meet its concept as part of its air quality management approach to meet its broader air quality goals.” EPA NOx Increment Rule (2005)broader air quality goals.” EPA NOx Increment Rule (2005)
FLM Future DirectionsFLM Future Directions
WESTAR PSD New WESTAR PSD New FrameworkFramework
Ira Domsky, Deputy DirectorIra Domsky, Deputy Director
Air Quality Division, Arizona DEQAir Quality Division, Arizona DEQ
November 15, 2005November 15, 2005
OverviewOverview
Review of guiding principlesReview of guiding principles
March 31-April 1, 2005 WorkshopMarch 31-April 1, 2005 Workshop
The path forwardThe path forward
Major issues related to critical loadsMajor issues related to critical loads
Guiding PrinciplesGuiding Principles
Achieve the purposes of the PSD programAchieve the purposes of the PSD program– Protect public health and welfareProtect public health and welfare– Preserve, protect and enhance air quality in Preserve, protect and enhance air quality in
Class I and other areas of natural and Class I and other areas of natural and recreational significancerecreational significance
– Assess and manage interstate impactsAssess and manage interstate impacts– Comply with spirit and requirements of PSD Comply with spirit and requirements of PSD
permitting processes permitting processes
Guiding PrinciplesGuiding Principles
Look beyond existing law, if warrantedLook beyond existing law, if warrantedImprovement to environment and Improvement to environment and efficiencyefficiencyEvaluate feasibility and balance competing Evaluate feasibility and balance competing valuesvaluesHarmonize with and complement other Harmonize with and complement other regulatory requirementsregulatory requirementsIncorporate new knowledge and Incorporate new knowledge and technologies and analytical toolstechnologies and analytical tools
March 31 – April 1 2005 March 31 – April 1 2005 Workshop AttendeesWorkshop Attendees
Nearly all statesNearly all states
EPAEPA
NPS for FLMsNPS for FLMs
WESTAR staff and contractorWESTAR staff and contractor
Issue MappingIssue Mapping
Procedure used for all topic areasProcedure used for all topic areas
– Brainstorm and record – questions, questions, Brainstorm and record – questions, questions,
questionsquestions
– CategorizationCategorization
– OrganizationOrganization
Develop action planDevelop action plan
Categories of IssuesCategories of Issues
Methods, analysis and goalsMethods, analysis and goalsRolesRolesProgram designProgram designImplementation approach – cap & tradeImplementation approach – cap & tradeResourcesResourcesPolitical feasibilityPolitical feasibilityImpacts on sources/equityImpacts on sources/equityEnvironmental benefits/impactsEnvironmental benefits/impacts
Major ThemesMajor Themes
Mandatory Class I area AQRVsMandatory Class I area AQRVs– Effects based AQRV protection (e.g., critical Effects based AQRV protection (e.g., critical
loads)loads)
Non-mandatory Class I, Class II/III areasNon-mandatory Class I, Class II/III areas– 2 options2 options
Change focus from short-term to annualChange focus from short-term to annual
Alternative without incrementsAlternative without increments
– Approach dependent on outcome of Class I Approach dependent on outcome of Class I processprocess
Major ThemesMajor Themes
Baseline emissions inventory improvementBaseline emissions inventory improvement– 2 options2 options
Secure, stable baseline inventoriesSecure, stable baseline inventories
Reset baseline datesReset baseline dates
CaveatsCaveats
Process for defining specifics for new Process for defining specifics for new
frameworks will take at least 18 months frameworks will take at least 18 months
Follow-through is essentialFollow-through is essential
Time the roll-out to assure positive Time the roll-out to assure positive
outcomeoutcome
Critical Loads Related IssuesCritical Loads Related Issues
Time frame for development of critical Time frame for development of critical
loads (CLs)loads (CLs)
What pollutants should be assessed?What pollutants should be assessed?
Will CLs replace increments?Will CLs replace increments?
If so, how will transition work?If so, how will transition work?
Can surrogates be developed (e.g., visibi-Can surrogates be developed (e.g., visibi-
lity thresholds, weight of evidence)?lity thresholds, weight of evidence)?
Critical Loads Related IssuesCritical Loads Related Issues
Stopping point for assessmentStopping point for assessment
Incorporation of new scienceIncorporation of new science
Will CLs be “bright line” standards?Will CLs be “bright line” standards?
Handling of source apportionment and Handling of source apportionment and
setting of emissions goals/limitationssetting of emissions goals/limitations
Dealing with short-term v. long-term Dealing with short-term v. long-term
impactsimpacts
Critical Loads Related IssuesCritical Loads Related Issues
Development of “research program”Development of “research program”
Implementation time frames for problem Implementation time frames for problem
identification and responsesidentification and responses
Can nonattainment area plan be a model?Can nonattainment area plan be a model?
Integration into permitting programsIntegration into permitting programs
Dealing with potentially competing AQRVsDealing with potentially competing AQRVs
Critical Loads Related IssuesCritical Loads Related Issues
Program evaluationProgram evaluation
Addressing background levels and natural Addressing background levels and natural
eventsevents
Institutional relationships – Federal, State, Institutional relationships – Federal, State, Tribal, RPOTribal, RPO
Role of cap-and-trade programs and their Role of cap-and-trade programs and their implementationimplementation