Wendy Sowers Market Analysis · Wendy Sowers Market Analysis Boeing Commercial Airplanes October...
Transcript of Wendy Sowers Market Analysis · Wendy Sowers Market Analysis Boeing Commercial Airplanes October...
Wendy SowersyMarket AnalysisBoeing Commercial AirplanesOctober 2010
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The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other thanthat intended by Boeing.
October 2010
GDP G thLib li ti G liti
CMO Process Outline
ASM Forecast –Regional Flowsp-
Dow
n
Traf
fic
orec
ast
GDP Growth& World Trade
-Liberalization--Environment-
-Geopolitics--Fuel Price-
-Travel Spend- -Growth Rates-
To Share Allocationby Airline
ASMs by Airlineby Flow
T Fo -OAG-
-Market Share--Non Scheduled-
-Business Models-
Ser
vice
Fore
cast
Traffic Forecast ASMs=
Service Forecast ASMs?
-Airline Strategies--OAG-
-Non Scheduled-Service Forecast
By Airline-Known Plans-
t stF
-Product Scenario-
-Airplane Characteristics-
Fleet ForecastBy Airline
Bot
tom
-Up
Pro
duct
Fore
cas
-Utilization--Current Fleet-
-Firm Orders--Retirements-
-Airplane Characteristics-Service Forecast ASMs
=Airline ASMs?
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
-Known Plans-
20-year forecast: strong long-term growth
3 2%World
economy
2009 to 2029
3.2%economy(GDP)
3 3%Airplane fl t 3.3%fleet
Numberof airline 4.2%
5.3%Airlinetraffic(RPK)
passengers4.9%
(RPK)
5.9%Cargotraffic(RTK)
5.4%
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(RTK)
20-year traffic growth rates are higher than last year's forecast because they are calculated off a lower base year
Air travel becoming more diverse geographically
Air traffic, RPKs (billions)14,000
10,000
12,000 Other
China
Middle East
6,000
8,000 Asia(excl. China)
4,000
2 000
Europe
45%
58%72%
2009 20290
2,000
1990
NorthAmerica
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Emerging business models are growing and gaining market share
Air traffic, RPKs (billions)14,000
Emerging business models10,000
12,000
38%
6,000
8,000
Network& other4,000
2 000
62%25%
14%
2029
2,000
200919900
75%86%
14%
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*Emerging business models include LCCs, 6th Freedom Gulf carriers and Chinese carriers
Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion
Ai l d li i 30 900 M k t l $3 6TAirplane deliveries: 30,9002010 - 2029
Market value: $3.6T2010 - 2029
25,000 1,800
ions
20 000 1,600
10,000
15,000
800
1,200
Airp
lane u
nits
Marke
t valu
e, $ b
illi20,000 ,
0
5,000
1,920regional jets
6%
21,160single-aisle
69%
7,100twin-aisle
23%
720large2%
0
400M
$60Bregional jets
2%
$1,680Bsingle-aisle
47%
$1,630Btwin-aisle
45%
$220Blarge6%6% 69% 23% 2% 2% 47% 45% 6%
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Market for new airplanes set to becomeconsiderably more geographically balanced
7%2%
11%
3% 2%
New airplane deliveries by region2010–2029
Market value by region2010–2029
Region AirplanesAsia Pacific 10 320
Region $BAsia Pacific 1 320
3% 6%
34%8% 37%11%Asia Pacific 10,320
North America 7,200Europe 7,190Middle East 2,340Latin America 2,180
Asia Pacific 1,320North America 700Europe 800Middle East 390Latin America 210
30,900 $3.6T
23%
23%
19%
22%,
C.I.S. 960Africa 710
World Total 30,900
C.I.S. 90Africa 80
World Total $3,590B
COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY
For more information, please visit our CMO website: boeing com/cmoboeing.com/cmo
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.