Welcoming Remarks Welcoming Remarks

The Year of Critical DecisionsThe Year of Critical Decisions

Prof. Alex MintzProf. Alex MintzDeanDean

Lauder School of Government, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and StrategyDiplomacy and Strategy

IDC HerzliyaIDC HerzliyaJanuary 31, 2010 January 31, 2010

In preparing these welcoming remarks,In preparing these welcoming remarks,

I glanced through a file in my office called The I glanced through a file in my office called The

First Herzliya Conference. First Herzliya Conference.

It includes documents and correspondence It includes documents and correspondence

between Prof. Reichman, Prof. Uzi Arad, and between Prof. Reichman, Prof. Uzi Arad, and

the founding Dean of the Lauder School of the founding Dean of the Lauder School of

Government, the late, Professor Ehud Government, the late, Professor Ehud

Sprinzak.Sprinzak.

Memories…Memories…

What impressed me most was that according to What impressed me most was that according to

documents in the file, this trio already envisioned documents in the file, this trio already envisioned

ten years ago what is actually happening ten years ago what is actually happening

TODAY at the Herzliya Conference:TODAY at the Herzliya Conference:

A leading international conference dealing with A leading international conference dealing with

such dimensions of national resilience as such dimensions of national resilience as

security, military, economic, political, strategic, security, military, economic, political, strategic,

social and ethical. social and ethical.

• The IDC has made a remarkable progress since The IDC has made a remarkable progress since

the days of the first Herzliya Conference. the days of the first Herzliya Conference.

• We have here seven schools, 5500 students, We have here seven schools, 5500 students,

including more than 1200 from 74 countries. including more than 1200 from 74 countries.

• The IDC is also unique in its vision, direction,The IDC is also unique in its vision, direction,

philosophy, quality, and the way it is managedphilosophy, quality, and the way it is managed

so successfully. so successfully.

The IDCThe IDC

•At the Lauder School of Government we offer a new At the Lauder School of Government we offer a new

program for the diplomatic corps stationed in Israel. program for the diplomatic corps stationed in Israel.

Distinguished IDC professors teach in this program. Distinguished IDC professors teach in this program.

• We also offer an MA in Diplomacy and Conflict We also offer an MA in Diplomacy and Conflict

Analysis, Public Policy, and Counter Terrorism Analysis, Public Policy, and Counter Terrorism

Studies with students coming to us from Stanford, Studies with students coming to us from Stanford,

Berkeley, UCLA, Columbia, NYU, Oxford and Berkeley, UCLA, Columbia, NYU, Oxford and

Cambridge. Cambridge.

Lauder School of Lauder School of GovernmentGovernment

The Herzliya Conference is an excitingThe Herzliya Conference is an exciting event for event for

the IDC and the Lauder School. the IDC and the Lauder School.

It seems that the uniqueness of the 10It seems that the uniqueness of the 10th Herzliya Herzliya

conference is that it takes place during what I conference is that it takes place during what I

call, the YEAR OF CRITICAL DECISIONS for call, the YEAR OF CRITICAL DECISIONS for

Israel. Israel.

The Year of the Critical The Year of the Critical DecisionsDecisions

• Whether to proceed with the peace process?Whether to proceed with the peace process?

with whom? at what pace? with whom? at what pace?

• Critical decisions regarding the Iranian Critical decisions regarding the Iranian

project: how long to wait for the world toproject: how long to wait for the world to

impose substantial sanctions? whether toimpose substantial sanctions? whether to

attack or refrain from attacking? What to attack or refrain from attacking? What to

do about this treat? do about this treat?

DecisionsDecisions

Economic PeaceEconomic PeaceDecisions on promoting joint projects Decisions on promoting joint projects

with the Palestinians that PM Netanyahu with the Palestinians that PM Netanyahu

enthusiastically advocated.enthusiastically advocated.

• Critical decisions on domestic issues Critical decisions on domestic issues

such as such as

the rising crime rates and violence. the rising crime rates and violence. • Decisions in the area of education Decisions in the area of education

Decisions that simply can not waitDecisions that simply can not wait. .

Decisions in the domestic Decisions in the domestic arenaarena

As a scholar of Decision Making in government As a scholar of Decision Making in government

and foreign and security policy, I am aware of and foreign and security policy, I am aware of

the fact that alternatives and policy options such the fact that alternatives and policy options such

as:as:

Do Nothing (e.g. on peace with Syria)Do Nothing (e.g. on peace with Syria)

Postpone a DecisionPostpone a Decision

Decision not to decideDecision not to decide

Are also viable optionsAre also viable options

Decision Making Decision Making

But only and as long as one assesses But only and as long as one assesses

seriously and systematically the price of not seriously and systematically the price of not

making progress. making progress.

Such systematic policy assessment should Such systematic policy assessment should

be done by a number of independent be done by a number of independent

professional, and a-political bodies.professional, and a-political bodies.

Cost-Benefit of Doing Cost-Benefit of Doing NothingNothing

One can not ignore what is called in the academic One can not ignore what is called in the academic

literature: literature: The Paradox of PowerThe Paradox of Power. .

More power does not necessarily translate to more More power does not necessarily translate to more

resilience or influence. resilience or influence.

At a certain point, according to this principle, things At a certain point, according to this principle, things

may go the other way around – a boomerang effect, may go the other way around – a boomerang effect,

whereas more power can lead to decline in influence whereas more power can lead to decline in influence

and resilience.and resilience.

The Paradox of PowerThe Paradox of Power

This is what happened to Israel in the first This is what happened to Israel in the first war in Lebanon and to the Americans in war in Lebanon and to the Americans in Iraq. When some actors which have always Iraq. When some actors which have always been hostile combine forces with those who been hostile combine forces with those who were neutral or friendly.were neutral or friendly.

A result of the formation of a coalition of A result of the formation of a coalition of opposing groups working together against opposing groups working together against the main power.the main power.

Explaining The Paradox of Explaining The Paradox of PowerPower

We are facing such a reversal and a We are facing such a reversal and a breaking point currently:breaking point currently:

Turkey is reaching closer to IranTurkey is reaching closer to IranSyria is reaching closer to Turkey and to Syria is reaching closer to Turkey and to IranIranLebanon towards Syria.Lebanon towards Syria.

Exactly as the Paradox of Power predicts.Exactly as the Paradox of Power predicts.

Breaking pointBreaking point

From this point on, the process only intensifies and becomes irreversible.

This is due to the incentives the players on the other side have to combine forces against the actor with the most power. Thus, assessing whether Doing Nothing on the Syrian front is preferable to moving forward on a courageous peace process with the Syrians .

A process that will only A process that will only

intensifyintensify

Unfortunately, the coalitionary system in Unfortunately, the coalitionary system in Israel does not allow a careful evaluation of Israel does not allow a careful evaluation of policy options, especially those concerning policy options, especially those concerning the peace process.the peace process.

This system is narrowing considerably the This system is narrowing considerably the number and type of options that a Prime number and type of options that a Prime Minister in Israel can even consider,Minister in Israel can even consider, regardless of the party in power. regardless of the party in power.

The Electoral System in Israel The Electoral System in Israel and its Consequencesand its Consequences

This is a structural, political, This is a structural, political, governmental problem which has governmental problem which has wide range implications on what the wide range implications on what the government wants to accomplish not government wants to accomplish not only in the domestic arena, but also in only in the domestic arena, but also in foreign and defense policy.foreign and defense policy.

AA Structural Problem that Structural Problem that Affects Domestic Affects Domestic andand Foreign Foreign

Policy Policy

The paradox is that all realize that such a political system weakens national resilience, but do nothing to change it.

A ParadoxA Paradox

It is inconceivable that decisions, It is inconceivable that decisions, even those who have majority even those who have majority public support, are not being public support, are not being taken, due to coalitionary and taken, due to coalitionary and political structure.political structure.

We ought to change the system.We ought to change the system.

Domestic, coalitionary obstacles Domestic, coalitionary obstacles to national and foreign policy to national and foreign policy

makingmaking

In a symposium on What the Prime In a symposium on What the Prime Minister should do in the First 100 Minister should do in the First 100 Days, conducted here several months Days, conducted here several months ago, a team that I chaired of ago, a team that I chaired of distinguished experts made several distinguished experts made several recommendations that are still valid recommendations that are still valid and highly relevant:and highly relevant:

Key RecommendationsKey Recommendations

Key Recommendations Key Recommendations (cont.)(cont.)Enter a peace process with Syria –which isEnter a peace process with Syria –which is

easier to accomplish versus with the easier to accomplish versus with the Palestinians as there are no veto players Palestinians as there are no veto players such such as the Hamas on the Palestinian side or theas the Hamas on the Palestinian side or theobjections of West Bank settlers. objections of West Bank settlers.

Head of IDF’s Military Intelligence also made such a supportive assessment.

Key Recommendations Key Recommendations (cont.)(cont.)One also needs to pay attention to whatOne also needs to pay attention to what

Syria’s Assad declared as two options: Syria’s Assad declared as two options: peace process or resistance.peace process or resistance.

An assessment of geo-strategic trends in the An assessment of geo-strategic trends in the region shows that time is not on the side of region shows that time is not on the side of Israel.Israel.

Embarking on a peace process will Embarking on a peace process will accelerate positive regional processes, and accelerate positive regional processes, and reduce the pressure on Israel, at a relatively reduce the pressure on Israel, at a relatively acceptable cost.acceptable cost.

Cost-BenefitCost-Benefit

I dare to predict that if I dare to predict that if Do NothingDo Nothing on on the peace process will be Israel’s policy the peace process will be Israel’s policy priority, Israel will face a vicious, priority, Israel will face a vicious, coordinated military attack by its coordinated military attack by its enemies in a few years.enemies in a few years.

Cost-BenefitCost-Benefit

Iran represents a real threat to Israel.Iran represents a real threat to Israel.

There is a need to establish in the Prime There is a need to establish in the Prime Minister’s office an administrative unit to Minister’s office an administrative unit to deal with all aspects of Iranian threat: deal with all aspects of Iranian threat: legal, economic, financial, political, public legal, economic, financial, political, public diplomacy, military and security. diplomacy, military and security.

A lot needs to be done and should be done.A lot needs to be done and should be done.

IRANIRAN