Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

51
Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop Phil Graham, Chairman Facts and Figures Committee Head of Marine at Chaucer 16th Sept 2019

Transcript of Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Page 1: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Phil Graham,

Chairman Facts and Figures Committee

Head of Marine at Chaucer

16th Sept 2019

Page 2: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

IUMI Facts & Figures Workshop Agenda

• Update on Facts & Figures Committee

• Major Claims Database Pilot

• Report on World Trade , Merchant Fleet and Offshore Energy Outlook

• Phil Graham , Chairman IUMI Facts & Figures Committee

• Global Marine Insurance Report

• Astrid Seltmann, Analyst/Actuary, CEFOR

• Risk rules the waves: How the Iran-US Geopolitical Crisis is impacting Shipping

and Insurance Risk

• Michelle Bockmann, Shipping and commodities editor/analyst, Lloyd’s List

Intelligence, UK-London

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Update on Facts & Figures

Committee

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Facts & Figures Committee Members

Andrea Mazza

Swiss Re International

Genova, Italy

Astrid Seltmann

Vice Chair

CEFOR

Oslo, Norway

Atsushi Tabata

Sompo Japan Nipponkoa

Insurance Inc.

Tokyo, Japan

Ben Chung

Bank of China Group

Insurance Company

Hong Kong

David Matcham

IUA (International

Underwriting Association)

London, United Kingdom

Emiel Paaij

DUPI Underwriting

Agencies

Rotterdam, Netherlands

Erika Schoch

ALSUM Representative

Swiss Re Americas

Armonk, NY USA

Javier Alonso Puente

Mapfre Re

Madrid, Spain

Jun Lin

Gard

London, United Kingdom

Lars Lange

Executive Committee Liaison,

IUMI

Hamburg, Germany

Li Zhang

Taiping Reinsurance (China)

Company Ltd, Beijing

China

Marika Svalskulla

Secretary

SIRIUS

Stockholm, Sweden

Mathieu Daubin

Axa Corporate Solutions

Paris, France

Paul Hackett

Canopius

Singapore

Philip Graham

Chairman

Chaucer Syndicate 1084

London, United Kingdom

Robert Copp

Axis Reinsurance

New York, USA

Stephan Klein

GenRe

Cologne, Germany

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Page 5: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Facts & Figures Committee Members

Andrea Mazza

Hull Index & Cargo Index

IUMI Stats report

Liaison to Cargo

Committee

Astrid Seltmann

Vice Chair

Global Marine Report

IUMI Stats report

Atsushi Tabata

Liaison to Loss Prevention

Committee

Ben Chung

Liaison to Loss Prevention

Committee

David Matcham

Major Claims Database

Liaison to Policy Forum

Emiel Paaij

Liaison to Legal Liability

Committee

Erika Schoch

ALSUM Representative

Liaison to Inland Fishing

Yacht Committee

Javier Alonso Puente

Liaison to Inland Fishing

Yacht Committee

Jun Lin

Offshore report

Liaison to Offshore

Committee

Lars Lange

Liaison to Executive

Committee

Li Zhang

Liaison to Offshore

Committee

Marika Svalskulla

Secretary / Liability Project

Liaison to Legal Liability

Committee

Mathieu Daubin

Cargo Report

Liaison to Cargo Committee

Paul Hackett

Liaison to Hull Committee

Philip Graham

Chairman / Hull Report

Liaison to Hull Committee

Robert Copp

IUMI Newsletters

Liaison to Loss Prevention

Committee

Stephan Klein

Cyber Initiatives

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Page 6: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

https://iumi.com/statistics

Statistics Spring 2019

• IUMI 2019 Spring Cargo Statistics

• IUMI 2019 Spring Cargo Statistics - Analysis

• IUMI 2019 Spring Hull Statistics

• IUMI 2019 Spring Hull Statistics - Analysis

• IUMI 2019 Spring Offshore Energy Statistics

• IUMI 2019 Spring Offshore Energy Statistics - Analysis

Statistics Autumn 2018

• Cargo Index 2018 documentation

• Cargo Index 2018

• Hull Repair Cost Index 2018

• Hull Repair Cost Index 2018 documentation

• Hull Repair Cost Index 2018 methodology

• IUMI Conference 2018 Report on world merchant fleet and world trade

• IUMI Conference 2018 Major claims database project

• IUMI Conference 2018 Global Marine Insurance Report

• IUMI Conference 2018 Global premiums

• IUMI Conference 2018 Loss ratio triangulations

• IUMI conference 2018 Sub-Saharan Africa: medium term opportunities and risk

• IUMI Conference 2018 Cargo factsheet 2018

• IUMI Conference 2018 Cargo statistics - analysis 2018

• IUMI Conference 2018 Ocean Hull factsheet 2018

• IUMI Conference 2018 Ocean Hull statistics - analysis 2018

• IUMI Conference 2018 Offshore Energy factsheet 2018

• IUMI Conference 2018 Offshore Energy statistics - analysis 2018

IUMI Stats and data downloads (for IUMI members)

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7 International Union of Marine Insurance April 2019

https://iumi.com/statistics

IUMI Stats Report (public)

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Key Data & Content Providers

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Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.

Copyright notice and disclaimer

Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. For IHS Markit clients’ use only.

These webinar slides are subject to IHS Markit copyright and are being provided to IHS Markit

clients only. You are free to redistribute the slides internally within your organization in the form as

made available by IHS Markit provided that all IHS Markit legal notices and markings are

displayed. You are not permitted to reproduce, reuse, or otherwise redistribute the slides or any

portion of this presentation to anyone outside of your organization without prior written consent of

IHS Markit.

This presentation is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, use of or reliance on any

content is entirely at your own risk, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS Markit shall not be

liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by you or your

organization.

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Disclaimer

10

The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates and/or forward looking predictions) contained herein (together, the "Information") are

provided by Clarkson Research Services Limited ("Clarksons Research") for general guidance and not by way of recommendation. The Information is provided on "as

is" and “as available” basis. Clarksons Research and all its Group companies make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the

completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the

recipient's own risk and no responsibility is accepted for any loss or damage howsoever arising. Please note that future rates and/or forward looking predictions are

for illustration purposes only and given without guarantee; the ultimate outcome may be different.

This Information is not for reproduction or distribution without Clarksons Research’s prior written consent. Especially, the Information is not to be used in any

document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons Research, its Group

companies and/or its licensors.

This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.

CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES LTD, COMMODITY QUAY, ST KATHARINE DOCKS, LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, E1W 1BF

Clarksons Research

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Major Claims Database Pilot

Page 12: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

IUMI Major Claim Database Project

Create a large and consistent loss database (hull and cargo) with

standardized data from member companies in order to analyze major

losses with respect to loss severity, frequency, location and cause

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Page 13: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Co

pyr

igh

t ©

20

18

by

Th

e B

osto

n C

on

su

ltin

g G

rou

p, In

c. A

ll r

igh

ts r

ese

rve

d.

going into 2nd year with additional participants

Hull Cargo

Countries

Data fields

• Date of accident

• Underwriting year

• Loss amount

• Type of loss

• Location of loss

• IMO number

• Vessel name

• Vessel type

• Event name

• Date of accident

• Underwriting year

• Loss amount

• Type of loss

• Location of loss

• Mode of transport

• IMO number

• Vessel name

• Type of cargo

• SIC codes

• Event name

Major Claims Database successfully

piloted in 2018

Claims count 3,289 1,386

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Marine Market Snapshot

World Trade

World Merchant Fleet

Offshore Energy Outlook

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Source various press

• 31 underwriting entities have either pulled out or severely restricted their marine underwriting since 2017

• 21 of those since we sat in Cape town in 2018

• In either Hull or Cargo and in Europe , North America and Asia

• Markets have reacted with reports of positive pricing

Marine Market Snapshot

Page 16: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

24.4%

57.4%

6.7%

11.6%

2018

Global Hull

Transport/Cargo

Marine Liability

Offshore/Energy

Marine Premiums 2018by line of business

Total estimate 2018: 28.9 USD billion

Change 2017 to 2018: +1%

NB: Exchange rate effects!

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(other than IGPI)

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Report on

World Trade

“ Confronting the chaos for a

sustainable future? “

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Global worries …

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30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Ind

ex

, o

ve

r 5

0 s

ign

als

ex

pa

ns

ion

United States Eurozone China Japan

IHS Markit manufacturing PMIs®

19

Purchasing managers’ indexes

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

signal deteriorating business conditions in major economies

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Pe

rce

nt

ch

an

ge

Real GDP Industrial production Real goods & services trade

Global output and trade growth have slowed

20

Global real GDP, industrial production, and real exports

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

Global real GDP growth will

slow from 3.2% in 2018 to

2.7% in 2019 and 2020

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Forces affecting the growth of world trade

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Cyclical forces

• Maturing global expansion

• Deceleration in capital spending

• Weak commodity prices

Structural forces

• Shift from manufacturing to services

• Shortening of global supply chains

• Trade protectionism

• Technological advances

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

NorthAmerica

OtherAmericas

WesternEurope

EmergingEurope

Mideast-N. Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Japan OtherAsia-

Pacific

An

nu

al

perc

en

t ch

an

ge

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022–26

Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) will continue to lead all regions in real GDP growth

22

Real GDP

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

US economy is expected to

grow 2.3% in 2019 and 2020,

supported by strong consumer

finances and short term new

fiscal stimulus.

Page 23: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

North America18.1%

Other Americas4.1%

Western Europe8.8%

Emerging Europe4.8%

Asia-Pacific57.3%

Middle East & North Africa4.2% Sub-Saharan

Africa 2.8%

Asia-Pacific will account for 57% ofglobal real GDP growth from 2018 to 2028

Percent of world real GDP growth, 2018–28

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

Notable contributions:

China 35.6%

United States 15.9%

India 8.8%

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0

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Pe

rce

nt

ch

an

ge

Real GDP Industrial production

China’s growth will downshift in the long run

24

Real GDP and industrial production

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

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Rising US supply will restrain crude oil prices

25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028

Do

lla

rs/b

arr

el

Current US dollars 2018 US dollars

Price of Dated Brent crude oil

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

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0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Pe

rce

nt

ch

an

ge

World Advanced countries Emerging markets

Global consumer price inflation is relatively steady

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Consumer price inflation

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

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1

2

3

4

5

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7

8

9

NorthAmerica

OtherAmericas

WesternEurope

EmergingEurope

Mideast-N.Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Japan Other Asia-Pacific

An

nu

al

pe

rce

nt

ch

an

ge

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022–26

Consumer price inflation varies widely

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Consumer price inflation

Note: Venezuela is excluded from Other Americas.

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

Page 28: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Ten-year government bond yields are exceptionally low

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Ten-year government bond yields

Source: IHS Markit © 2019 IHS Markit

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Pe

rce

nt

United States Germany Japan

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World Trade Summary

• Global real GDP growth will slow from 3.2% in 2018 to 2.7% in 2019 and 2020, led by decelerations in world trade and investment.

• The US economy is expected to grow 2.3% in 2019 and 2020, supported by strong consumer finances and new fiscal stimulus.

• Despite policy easing, eurozone growth will average just 1.0% in 2019–20. UK growth will diminish under a protracted and uncertain Brexit process.

• The Asia-Pacific region will make the strongest contribution to global growth, although China’s economic deceleration is driving a regional slowdown.

• Economic risks have risen, but not enough to trigger a near-term global recession. These include US-China trade conflicts, hostilities in the Middle East, rising debt levels, and political uncertainty in many parts of the world.

• Low interest rates and sizable fiscal deficits in many countries leave little scope for policy stimulus in the next recession.

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Report on

World Merchant Fleet

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Average Age of the World Fleet

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as at 1st August 2019 = 21.2 years

• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019

Average Age by Ship Type (Years) Average Age by Ship Size (Years)

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

20

00

20

01

20

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Tanker Bulkcarrier Containership/MPP

Gas Others Total

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

20

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02

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03

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Global Fleet < 2,000GT Global Fleet >=2,000GT

Note (1): Includes all vessels in these categories above 100 GT.

Note (2): Average age is calculated using number of vessels. Calculations are based on year and month of build.

Page 32: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Global Fleet

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Fleet Size, Deliveries & Scrapping

• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019

Development of Global Fleet (million GT) Deliveries & Scrapping of Global Fleet (million GT)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

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Au

g-2

01

9

Fleet, End Year (LHS) % Growth (RHS)

Note (1): Includes all vessels above 100 GT. Note (2) 2019* = year-to-date.

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

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00

20

01

20

02

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11

20

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14

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20

19

*

Millio

ns

Deliveries Demolitions

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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

<=

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84

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Builder Country: China Builder Country: Other

Fleet Age Profile

33

Today’s World Fleet by Year of Delivery

• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019

Note (1): Includes all vessels above 100 GT.

Million GT - split by build country China / rest of the World

Page 34: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Cruise Fleet

34

Cruise Fleet Size, Deliveries & Scrapping

• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019

Development of Cruise Fleet (No. of Vessels) Development of Cruise Fleet (million GT)

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

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*

Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)

0

2

4

6

8

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20

22

220

240

260

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360

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400

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*

Fleet, End Year (LHS) Deliveries (RHS) Scrapping (RHS)

Note (1): 2019* = year-to-date.

Page 35: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

World Fleet Ownership

35

Ownership of The World Fleet by Region

• Source: Clarksons Research, March 2019

Long Term Regional Fleet Development (start-year) Regional Ownership – Start 2019

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

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04

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05

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20

19

mGT

Europe Americas China Japan Korea Other Asia/Pacific Others

% Chinese owned

% Japanese owned

Note (1): Includes all vessels above 100 GT.

Greece

17%

Germany

5%

Other Europe

20%

United States

5%Other Americas

3%

China

13%

Japan

13%

Korea

4%

Other Asia/Pacific

16%

Others

4%

Page 36: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Notes

• Going forward, the orderbook will be influenced by delays, cancellations and the re-

negotiation of contracts. Due to these technical and contractual issues, there is currently

considerable uncertainty surrounding the orderbook.

• The figures quoted here relate to the orderbook as at 1st August 2019 and take no account

for these potential delivery problems.

36

Total Size of Newbuilding Order book

• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019

Share of Orderbook (No. of Vessels) Share of Orderbook (CGT)

Average Size of Ship on Order (‘000 CGT)

0

10

20

30

40

50

P.R.

China

South

Korea

Japan Taiwan Other

Asia

Europe Brazil USA Others

P.R. China South Korea

Japan Taiwan

Other Asia Europe

Brazil USA

Others

P.R. China South Korea

Japan Taiwan

Other Asia Europe

Brazil USA

Others

as at 1st August 2019 = 3,987 vessels of 78.8 million CGT

Page 37: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Total Value of Newbuilding Order book

37

as at 1st August 2019 = US$222.57 billion (Contracted Values)

• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019

Value of Orderbook by Vessel Type (US$ billion) Value of Orderbook by Country / Region of Build (US$ billion)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Ta

nke

rs

Bu

lkca

rrie

rs

Co

nta

ine

r/

MP

P Ga

s

Ro

Ro

/P

CC

Oth

er

Ca

rgo

Cru

ise

/F

err

y

Tu

gs/D

red

ge

rs

Off

sh

ore

/O

the

r

Co

mb

os 0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

P.R

. C

hin

a

So

uth

Ko

rea

Jap

an

Ta

iwa

n

Oth

er

Asia

Eu

rop

e

Bra

zil

US

A

Oth

ers

Page 38: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

38

Market Cycle Still Edging Forwards

• Source: Clarksons Research, August 2019

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Overview

ClarkSea Index: Historical View (US$’000/day)

ClarkSea Index: January 2009 – Present (US$’000/day)

• The ClarkSea Index is a weighted average of earnings for all the main commercial vessel types, where

the weighting is based on the number of vessels in each fleet sector.

• Historical averages:

1980s average: $8,500/day

1990s average: $12,019/day

2000-2008 average: $23,448/day

• Record highs before the economic downturn:

December 14, 2007: $50,714/day

• Rates in many markets have been at relatively low levels for over a decade:

2009-2019 average: $11,785/day

2017 average: $10,767/day

2018 average: $12,144/day

2019 ytd average: $12,334/day

• Record low as of August 2019:

August 19, 2016: $7,073/day

• Latest ClarkSea Index rate:

16th August 2019: $16,265/day

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan

-20

09

Jul-2

00

9

Jan

-20

10

Jul-2

01

0

Jan

-20

11

Jul-2

01

1

Jan

-20

12

Jul-2

01

2

Jan

-20

13

Jul-2

01

3

Jan

-20

14

Jul-2

01

4

Jan

-20

15

Jul-2

01

5

Jan

-20

16

Jul-2

01

6

Jan

-20

17

Jul-2

01

7

Jan

-20

18

Jul-2

01

8

Jan

-20

19

Jul-2

01

9

Page 39: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

World Seaborne Trade & the World Economy

39

• Source: Clarksons Research / IMF, August 2019

Seaborne Trade per Capita

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

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06

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07

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08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

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13

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14

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15

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16

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17

20

18

20

19

(f)

20

20

(f)

ton

ne

s p

er p

ers

on

billio

n t

on

ne

s

Seaborne Trade (LHS) Trade per Capital (RHS)

Milestone 1: 2000

Trade passes 1 tonne

per person

Milestone 2: 2013

Trade reaches 10bn tonnes

Milestone 3: 2017

Trade reaches 1.5 tonnes per

person

71% Seaborne,

16% Airborne,

13% by land (2018)

Page 40: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

2 Adult moose 1500

kg ! For every man

woman and child in the

World !!!

Large Adult moose

750 kg

40

Page 41: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

41

Total Losses 2001-2018

Source: IUMI 2019 Casualty and World Fleet Statistics

Clarksons Research

As a % of World Fleet (Vessels > 500 GT)

Source: Fleet numbers : Clarkson Research Services

Losses: LLI, total losses as reported in Lloyds List

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

in % of Vessels in % of GT

After downward trend Total

Losses now stabilising at approx

0.14% of vessel numbers and

0.5% of GT

Page 42: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Source: IHS – Shipping and shipbuilding 2019 outlook

33

Some bright outlooks for majority of the fleets, but trade war and IMO 2020 preparations will dominate 2019

42

Page 43: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Report on

Offshore Energy Outlook

Page 44: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

44

Dayrates Responding To Increased Activity In Some Areas

• Source: Clarksons Research

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Clarksons Offshore Rate Index (LHS) Brent Blend USD (RHS)

Clarksons Offshore Rates Index

Offshore Energy Markets: Executive Summary

The Clarksons Research

Offshore Index reached 55.5 by

mid-year, 12% up on the start

of 2019.

Page 45: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Rig Market Overview: Supply And Demand

45

Signs Of Stabilisation And Growth

• Source: Clarksons Research

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan

-80

Jan

-82

Jan

-84

Jan

-86

Jan

-88

Jan

-90

Jan

-92

Jan

-94

Jan

-96

Jan

-98

Jan

-00

Jan

-02

Jan

-04

Jan

-06

Jan

-08

Jan

-10

Jan

-12

Jan

-14

Jan

-16

Jan

-18

Demand (LHS) Utilisation (RHS)

Jack-Up And Floater Fleet

Page 46: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Rig Market Overview: Prices And Rates

46

Slight Upward Movements In Rates, But Prices Still Depressed

• Source: Clarksons Research

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

5-10yr Old Jack-Up 1980s built Jack-Up 6th Gen Floater

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan

-96

Jan

-98

Jan

-00

Jan

-02

Jan

-04

Jan

-06

Jan

-08

Jan

-10

Jan

-12

Jan

-14

Jan

-16

Jan

-18

High Spec Jack-Up Low Spec Jack-Up Ultra-Deep Floater

Deepwater Floater Midwater Floater

Average Rig Secondhand Prices - $m Average Rig Dayrates - $,000/day

Page 47: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Rig Market Overview: Activity Trends

47

Some Progress In Both Sectors

• Source: Clarksons Research

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Utilis

atio

n

No

. A

cti

ve

Un

its

Jack-Ups Semi-Subs Drillships

Jack-Up Utilisation Floater Utilisation

Demand And Utilisation DEMAND August 2018 August 2019%

Change

Jack-Ups 332 353 +6%

Utilisation 70% 74% +4pp

Floaters 138 147 +7%

Utilisation 70% 74% +4pp

Total Rigs 470 500 +6%

Utilisation 70% 74% +4pp

ACTIVE SUPPLY August 2018 August 2019%

Change

Jack-Ups 473 480 +1%

Floaters 198 199 +1%

Total Rigs 671 679 +1%

Page 48: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

Jack-Up Markets In North America

48

Signs Of Renewed Shallow Water Activity In Mexico

• Source: Clarksons Research

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Utilis

atio

nNo

. U

nit

s

Supply Demand Utilisation

US GoM Jack-Up MarketMexican GoM Jack-Up Market

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Utilis

atio

nNo

. U

nit

s

Supply Demand Utilisation

Page 49: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

49

Asia Pacific

Middle East/ISC

North West Europe

Mediterranean

S&C America

West Africa

Active

92%

Idle

8%

3Units

4Units

51Units

53Units

Global FPSO Fleet*

Active 186 units

Laid-Up 25 units

Total 211 units

64Units

North America

Active

100%

9Units

Active

96%

Idle

4%

27Units

Active

100%

Active

77%

Idle

23%

Activ

e

92%

Idle

8%

• Source: Clarksons Research

Active

75%

Idle

25%

FIDs and awards have

been picking up. For

further information and

forecasts, please contact

Clarksons Research.

Global FPSO Deployment

Page 50: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

World Fleet and Energy Summary

• Average age of World Fleet is rising

• Proportion of Blue water fleet that is Chinese built is increasing

• Chinese Vessel ownership growing

• Signs of slight recovery in Freight Market

• Chinese New building dominates in number of units however in orderbook value the European yards lead with the ever growing Cruise market .. But for how long ?

• Total losses are no longer falling but seem to have stabilized at around 0.14% of the World Fleet

• Rig utilization continued to make progress with jack up demand showing steady improvement

• Economic uncertainty prevails

50

Page 51: Welcome to the Facts and Figures Workshop

THANK YOU

IUMI Facts and Figures Committee Report

Phil Graham, Chairman

[email protected]