Welcome to the 10th Fund Summit - Clearstream · Rule 2a-7 imposes various restrictions on the...
Transcript of Welcome to the 10th Fund Summit - Clearstream · Rule 2a-7 imposes various restrictions on the...
Noel FesseyGlobal Head of Fund Services, Schroder Investment Management
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Chairman’s Opening Remarks
Deborah A. CunninghamChief Investment Officer, Federated Investors
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The Future of the Money Market Industry
Stability Investment Solutions Diligence
The Future of the Money Market Industry
Presented by:
Deborah A. Cunningham, CFAExecutive Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager
Federated Investors
1 0 t h C l e a r s t r e a m F u n d S u m m i t
6 June, 2013
13-49461 (6/13)
Timeline of Modified Rule 2a-7 Adoption
Rule 2a-7 is a rule under the Investment Company Act of 1940 which permits a money market fund to use amortized cost to stabilize the value of its shares at $1.00. Rule 2a-7 imposes various restrictions on the money market fund’s portfolio, including restrictions related to diversification, and credit quality and maturity of portfolio securities.
5/5/10 General rule effective date
5/28/10 Compliance required for quality, individual security maturity, liquidity and repo changes
6/30/10 Compliance required for weighted average maturity and weighted average life changes
10/7/10 Compliance required for monthly portfolio Web site disclosures
12/7/10 Compliance required for monthly reporting to SEC of mark-to-market NAV and other portfolio details (to be published by the SEC on a 60-day lag)
12/31/10 Compliance required for NRSRO disclosure – SEC “No-Action” Letter
10/31/11 Compliance required for processing transactions at other than $1 NAV
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¡ 2a-7 2010 Amendments – Industry Goes Beyond
¡ Portfolio Reporting
¡ Daily Market-Based NAV Reporting
¡ Floating NAV
¡ Capital / buffer
¡ Gating
¡ IOSCO
¡ FSB
Regulatory Environment
Offshore
SEC & FSOC
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FSOC Proposal Recommends SEC Make Changes to Money Market Fund Regulations
The FSOC’s current action does not change MMF regulations, nor does it require the SEC to change MMF regulations.
The request was issued under Section 120 of the Dodd-Frank Act, which permits the FSOC to make recommendations to a “primary financial regulatory agency,” in this
case, the SEC, to make changes in its own regulations governing nonbank financial institutions under its jurisdiction.
The FSOC asks for public comments on three specific recommendations that it may propose to the SEC. After the 60-day comment period ends, the FSOC will review comments and then may vote on whether to formally issue specific recommendations to the SEC. The FSOC may decide to change the recommendations, request further comment, or not issue the recommendations. If the FSOC makes recommendationsto the SEC, the SEC, within 90-days after receiving the recommendations, must decide either to propose the recommendations in its own rulemaking proceeding, or advise the FSOC in writing why it has determined not to follow its recommendations.
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FSOC Proposal Recommends SEC Make Changes to Money Market Fund Regulations
If the SEC decides to propose the FSOC’s recommendations in its own rulemaking proceeding, the SEC will then draft a proposing release, vote on it in a public meeting (at which a majority of the SEC commissioners must approve it), publish a notice in the Federal Register, accept comments from the public during a specified comment period (generally 60-days), analyze the comments, conduct an economic analysis required by statute, and then decide, based on its analysis of the comments and other data, whether to adopt the proposal, reject it, or change it. A vote of a majority of the commissioners is required for the adoption of a rule.
If the SEC decides not to propose the changes recommended by the FSOC, it must submit a report to the FSOC explaining why. The FSOC then must file a report with Congress explaining the recommendation and why it was not adopted.According to the Treasury Secretary and other FSOC members, if the SEC independently issues a rule proposal that they believe is acceptable, then the FSOC would no longer pursue the proposed recommendations.
10th Clearstream Fund Summit, 6 June 2013
Summary of the FSOC Proposal
Floating Net Asset Value (NAV)This would require MMFs to distribute and redeem shares at a fluctuating share value, rather than the stable $1.00-per-share NAV that they have today using amortized cost accounting and/or penny rounding.
10th Clearstream Fund Summit, 6 June 2013
Summary of the FSOC Proposal
Stable NAV with NAV Buffer and “Minimum Balance at Risk”This would require MMFs to maintain a “buffer” or capital of up to 1% of assets based on their holdings. It also would require that 3% of a shareholder’s highest account value in excess of $100,000 during the prior 30-days be delayed for redemption for 30-days. If a MMF suffers a loss that exceedsthe 1% buffer, the losses would be borne first by the shareholders who most recently redeemed. These requirements would not apply to Treasury MMFs and the 3% minimum balance requirement would not apply to investors with account balances below $100,000.
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Summary of the FSOC Proposal
Stable NAV Buffer and Other MeasuresThis would require each MMF to have a risk-based capital buffer of 3% to allow for absorption of any losses. It would be combined with other measures, such as more stringent diversification, liquidity and disclosure requirements, which also may reduce the required size of the buffer.
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Recent Developments
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) By Ronald D. Orol – Securities andExchange Commission chairman Mary Jo White told a panel ofregulators that reform of the $2.7 trillion money-market fund industryis best handled by the agency and that it is important for thecommission to take steps to hike regulations for the industry.
Source: MarketWatch
White: Money-fund reform ‘best handled’ by SEC.
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Recent Developments
Despite the fact that the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC)voted unanimously in November to advance proposed changes to moneymarket funds and seek public comment, White told lawmakers thatmoney market funds are “investment products and the SEC should takethe lead” in writing rules to reform them.
By Melanie Waddell Advisorone 4/30/13 - Reprints
Source: Melanie Waddell. Advisorone, April 30, 2013
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Recent Developments
SEC’s Paredes at MMX: “WHAT ARE WE SOLVING FOR?”“It’s paramount that money-fund reform be decided within theCommission, “Paredes said. “If the Commission does what the FSOC(Financial Stability Oversight Council) wants us to do, we will haveeroded our independence as the prime regulator of money-market funds.”Avoiding reference to expected new proposals from his agency, Paredessaid that the “chances of breaking the buck now are quite remote preciselybecause of the changes we put in place in 2010,” and that “turning thesame dials” – that is, increasing credit quality and liquidity requirementsand perhaps further reducing maturities – is a “customized” and potentiallyproductive reform option that could avoid “significant harm to theproduct.” (Posted: 3/21/13 – 2013 iMoneyNet)
Source: ©2013 iMoneyNet 3/21/2013
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Even More Confusing – Potential Offshore Money Market Fund Regulations:
IOSCO – Oct. 2012 –¡ 15 recommendations as debated within the G20 on shadow banking
Financial Stability Board – Nov. 2012 –¡ Endorsed IOSCO recommendations
European Systemic Risk Board – Dec. 2012 –¡ Further Money Market Fund recommendations
European Commissions Draft Proposal on Money Market Fund Reform –¡ Expected in June 2013
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Do you think amortized cost pricing will remain in place for offshore Short-Term Money Market Funds?
1 Yes
2 No
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The wave has fully started and it will impact the industry even if there is uncertainty on how this will “go live”
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Implementation of PRIP regulation (2015*)
Implementation of CRD IV (Jan 2013)
Securities Law Directive proposal (Q3 2012)
PRIP proposal (Jul 2012)
Implementation of ESMA guidelines on suitability (Oct 2012)
Regulatory timeline: Ready for 2013?
2012 2014 20152013
* Estimated date
Implementation of Securities Law Directive (2015*)
Market Abuse Directive II
End of transition period for KIID (Jul 2012)
Implementation of AIFMD (Jul 2013)
Implementation of short-selling Regulation (Nov 2012)
Implementation of Solvency II for firms (Jan 2014)
FATCA effective(Jan 2013)
Financial Transaction Tax
Securities Law Directive
Solvency II
UCITS IV ManCo
PRIP
AIFMD
Short Selling & CDS
Dodd-Frank Act
UCITS IV
UCITS V
FATCA
MiFID II
EMIR
Venture capital regulation
Implementation of EMIR (2013*)
Deadline for entering into FFI agreements (Jun 2013)
Withholdable payments, including interest and dividends, from this date subject to FATCA withholding (Jan 2014)
Deadline for AIFM to seek authorisation (Jul 2014)
Withholding of gross proceeds from the sale of US securities & passthrupayments (Jan 2015)
UCITS V proposal (Jul 2012)
Implementation of MAD ll (end 2015*)
General implementation date for Volcker rule (conditional extensions) (Jul 2014)
Implementation of ESMA guidelines on ETFs (Feb 2013*)
Implementation of French financial transaction tax (Aug 2012)
UCITS V implementation (end 2014*)
ESMA guidelines
Risk Management for SIF
Implementation of ESMA guidelines on compliance (Q1 2013*)
Implementation of EU passport for European Venture Capital Funds (Jul 2013)
Implementation of MiFID II (2015*)
Implementation of SIF risk management
Deadline Lux ManCoCompliance (June2013)
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Asset Management related Regulatory Landscape
*Additionally: Capital Requirements Directive IV and Data Protection Regulation
**Includes changes to consumer
protection as well
*** BIS, G20, Financial Stability Board, OECD
Lega
l and
regu
lato
ry b
odie
s fr
om:
Planned Ongoing interpretations
Switz
erla
ndEU
*U
SIn
ter-
natio
nal**
*
Kick-back waiver outlawed
Provision of client’s data (based on
Datenschutz-gesetz)
OECD Model Tax (OECD 26), double tax
treaties
Legal framework
EU alterna-tive investment fund managers
directive (AIFMD)
Collective investments
directive(UCITS IV)
Swiss“too big to fail”
package
Regulation of remuneration
schemes
Protection of deposits
Unfair competition act (UWG)
Amendment of the collective investment schemes
ordinance (KIID)
Abolition / reduction of stamp tax
Withholding tax in double tax
treaties
Memorandum to bilateral
agreements for better market
access
Basel III Revision of Lugano Treaty
Rome I Ordinance
MiFID I Saving tax directive
US Senate: Dodd Frank**
US Treasury: FATCA
Amendment of the Collective
Investment Schemes Act (CISA / KAG)
MiFID II
Market Abuse Directive II
EU Alterna-tive Investment Fund Managers
Directive (AIFMD), Level 2
Collective Investments Directive V
Area of influence: Protection of the financial system Consumer protection Tax Market efficiency Focus of today’s presentation
PRIPs
Discussion paper on
strategy for international tax
matters
Report on macroprudential
oversight in Switzerland
Pre draft Anti-Money
Laundering Act
Amendment of the Stock
Exchange Act
Market Abuse Directive I
ESA standards, guidance and
recommendations
Capital Requirements
Directive III
The global asset management related regulatory landscape can be described across the dimensions geographic origination, regulatory life cycle and areas of change. Currently there are/will be approximately 25 regulatory initiatives on management’s radar screen
EMIR
FINMA position paper on
distribution rules
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Our discussion today
Overview of the AIFM Directive1
Overview of the MiFID2 content 2
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Why the AIFMD?
Regulate an industry that operated under a very light regulatory framework up to now to bring closer to UCITS framework
Regulate1
Achieve a single EU market and common rules (authorization/supervision) for AIF’s and AIFM’s
Harmonize2
Increase transparency towards and protection of investors and stakeholders
Protect Investors3
Increase Responsibility
4 Ensure regulators have proper tools and means to control the systemic risks and increase the responsibility and accountability of AIFM holding or controlling stakes in companies (e.g. Private Equity)
Source : AIFMD; Deloitte Analysis
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AIFMD: bringing all alternative asset classes under a regulatory framework
Objectives
• Regulate an industry that operated under a very light regulatory framework up to now to bring closer to UCITS framework
• Regulate1
• Achieve a single EU market and common rules (authorization/supervision) for AIF’s and AIFM’s
• Harmonize2
• Increase transparency towards and protection of investors and stakeholders
• Protect Investors3
• Increase Responsibility
4 • Ensure regulators have proper tools and means to control the systemic risks and increase the responsibility and accountability of AIFM holding or controlling stakes in companies (e.g. Private Equity)
• All the asset classes will be impacted • Most of our large client types will be impacted
Source : AIFMD; Deloitte Analysis
Scope
Actors
Asset services
Asset Managers
Wealth Managers/
Private Bankers
Insurers 3rd party services
Admin.T&CS
Depo. banks
Prod
ucts
Hedge Funds
Private Equity
Real Estate
Vanilla (?)
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AIFMD – where do we stand ?
July 2013
July 2014 2015 2018
Level 2Regulation
End of 2012
AIFM performing activities before July 2013 must submit
application for authorization Extension of
passport to non-EU
AIFM/Non-EU AIF (if positive
opinion of ESMA)
Ending of NPPR* (max. timeframe)
t
July 2011
AIFM Directive enacted
Today
*: National Private Placement Regime
Deadline for national
transposition- Applications start
forNew AIFM activities
ESMA Guidelines on remuneration, draft regulatory technical standards and third
country requirements
Commission issues implementing regulation:- Member State of
Reference for non EU AIFMs
- sub threshold AIFMs and UCITS management companies to opt in to the AIFMD regime
Grandfathering Period
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The key AIFMD provisions can be structured in 6 pillars
AIFMD Directive
Authorization
• Scope – determination of whether in scope of out of scope
• Upgrade from current structure• Authorization requirements• Capital requirements
Marketing
• EU AIFM vs. non-EU AIFM:• EU AIF• Non-EU AIF• EU passport
• Use of private placement
Specific provisions
• Leverage• Major holdings and control
Functions and service providers
• Depository function• Eligible entities• Depository obligations• Depository liability
• Delegation and sub-delegation• Valuation requirements• Risk and liquidity management
Transparency
• Reporting to the authorities/regulators• Disclosure to investors and potential
investors• Publications in the annual report• Greater investor protection
Conduct of business
• Remuneration guidelines-policy, procedure and committee
• Rules of conduct• Conflict of interests• Professional Indemnity
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• Depositary liability and functions• Third country & marketing• Capital requirements / additional
own funds• Independence of RM function• Valuation• Reporting and new disclosures• Remuneration• Internal leverage limits• Liquidity arrangements
AIFMD L2MiFID
Industry Practice
UCITS
Key Compliance Gaps
What are the “key” compliance areas?Level 2
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Are target Investment Funds subject to the “Obligation of Restitution” (aka: the strict liability regime)
Yes1
No2
Not always3
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Financial instruments vs. Non-financial instrument Depository Liability for Investment Funds
Financial instruments Safekeeping Non-financial instruments Supervision
Main responsibilities Main responsibilities
• Return assets upon demand• Safekeeping of assets• Ensure segregation of assets
• Monitoring duties of non-financial assets and generally, assets that cannot be safekept (e.g. collectible assets, PE/RE, Boats)
• Verifying the ownership of the assets
• “Actual” safekeeping of assets and strict liability regime
• Obligation of results
• “Oversight” of assets
• Obligation of means
Source : Deloitte analysis, ALFI market practices, Circular 08/372
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Financial instruments vs. Non-financial instrument Depository Liability for Investment Funds
Source : Deloitte analysis, ALFI market practices, Circular 08/372
AIFMD L2 Regulation, Art 88.2:
“Financial instruments which, in accordance with applicable national law, are only directly registered in the name of the AIF with the issuer itself or its agent, such as a registrar or a transfer agent, shall not be held in custody.”
• Do not take that risk• Apply strict Due Diligence reviews• Select and monitor the target
funds you allow and their service providers carefully
• Look for professional solutions along the execution, settlement and custody chain
39 © 2013 Deloitte Tax & Consulting
Inducements
Scope of MiFID II
Client categorization
Investment research
Information to clientsand marketing
Client agreements
Suitability and appropriateness
Reporting to clients
Best ExecutionOrder handling
Transaction reporting
Pre- / post-tradetransparency
Record keeping: clientorders & transactions
Client assets
Complaints handling
Personal account dealing
Business continuity
Senior managementresponsibilities
Employees & agentsprocedures
Compliance functions
Internal audit
Risk control
Outsourcing
Organization
Admission
Third-country access
OTF
Systematic internalizers Structured deposits
Commodities
OTC derivatives
Unbundling
MiFID I topics (New) MiFID II topicsChanges of MiFID I topics by MiFID II
MTF
MiFID II scope
Source: Deloitte analysis
Comparison of MiFID I and II in-scope areas
Independent investment advice
Independent portfolio management
New investment products
§Address consequences of MiFID I
§Respond to crisis
§ Increase investor protection
§ Improve transparency for complex products
§ Improve organisation of investment banks
§ Improve access to the European market by non-European countries
MiFID II objectives
Inducements
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Prohibiting Inducements
Inducements banned for independent investment advice
Inducements banned for portfolio management
MiFID• Obligation to inform clients of any remuneration paid to the service provider by a third party • Ensure that this remuneration helps enhance the quality of the service provided to clients and is not
detrimental to clients’ interests
MiFID II • Prohibits any remuneration/monetary benefit or “inducement” from a third party, or from a person
acting on behalf of a third party, in the context of the provision of independent advice or in relation to portfolio management.
1
2
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In Practice
The inducement is NOT allowed
• Independent advice •Discretionnary portfolio management
The inducement is allowed IF following conditions are met
•Conditions must be satisfied:–The existence, nature and amount of the fee, commission or benefit must be clearly disclosed to the client, in a manner that is comprehensive, accurate and understandable, prior to the provision of the relevant investment or ancillary service
–The fee must be designed to enhance the quality of the relevant service to the client and not impair compliance with the firm’s duty to act in the best interests of the client
The “inducement” is allowed without any conditions
•Proper fees which enable or are necessary for the provision of investment services, such as custody costs, settlement and exchange fees, regulatory levies or legal fees, and which, by their nature, cannot give rise to conflicts with the firm’s duties to act honestly, fairly and professionally in accordance with the best interests of its clients
• !! Proper fees are not consideredinducements
SIMPLIFIED
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Trailer fees represent a significant amount of revenues which pays for retail distribution2010
Total funds valueEUR 1,237 billions*
Bonds
Equities and mixed
Money Market
Value *EUR billions
Trailer feesBasis points
20-30
50-70
5-10
Total : 1,237
364
556
317
HIGH LEVEL ESTIMATESLUXEMBOURG ONLY
* Taking only into account cross border sub-funds above 500 M EUR AUMSources: Deloitte analysis; Fitzrovia
Trailer feesEUR millions
4,482
909
3,336
237
• Despite MiFID I, distribution fees are still not presented in a transparent manner
• European investors are accustomed to buying investment funds having the impression of receiving free advice from the distributor ?!?
43 © 2013 Deloitte Tax & Consulting
UK
Advisors and Distributors of
UCIs
Advisors and Distributors of
UCIs
Advisors and Distributors of
UCIs
Sweden
Netherlands
Switzerland
Recent Court investigation into the receipt and payment of retrocession fees resulting in significant penalty
RDR = came into effect on 31 December 2012 in the UK and applies to all advisers
Independent Advisers can only be paid for advice and related services through “advisers charging”
Ban on “inducements”for complex products in the Netherlands implementedas of 1st January, 2013
Regulator considering gold plating the MiFID II rules.
Looking at developments in UK and Netherlands with interest Latest trends
• Some distributors of UCIs are applying best practices across multiple jurisdictions by selling the UK RDR share classes
• Germany are also looking into IFA remuneration
National initiatives following the mifid II spirit: Non harmonised rules
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Different types of distribution models will be impacted by MiFID II
Direct to Consumers û
Proprietary distribution ?
IFA !
Platforms !
Third party institutional distributors !
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MiFID2 – where do we stand ?
October 26 2012 2015 20162013
Possible implementation
EU Level
t
October2011
EC proposalTrialogues between
European Commission, European Council and
the European Parliament
Today
Level 2 proposal ?
Timetable is not clear yetDue by 2015/16?
Level 2 adoptedVote EU parliament
2014
Level 1 adopted?
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THREE POTENTIAL ANSWERS TO DEAL WITH MIFID II IMPACTS
New distribution models
Product differentiation
Incentives for distributors
1
2
3
Sources: Deloitte analysis
• Independent?• Limit/reduce the number of «pure» asset managers• Distributors consolidation• Platforms with new services and charging structures• Insurance Wrappers• D2C
• Performance products• Low/No load funds• Quality increase of advice
• Funds with simplified transaction processes
• Funds of funds• Entry fees• Share classes• «Marketing support»
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And if we were to be bold…
Define an industry “Trailer Fees Schedule” by asset class and publicize it
1
Create Low-Load share classes/funds and advertise them across Europe in a B2C approach. Use the retained fees as marketing and education budget
2
That does not make sense…3
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Q&A Thank you!
Benjamin [email protected]: +352 451 452 809Mobile: +352 621 283 574
The Future of the Asset Management Industry
An Interview with Dr Joachim FaberChairman of the Deutsche Börse AG Supervisory Board
with Jean-Baptiste de Franssu, Founder and Chairman, INCIPIT
Moderator Richard Glen, Vice President, Clearstream
Richard W. Boyd, Managing Director, Federated InvestorsVincent Dessard, Regulatory Policy Advisor, EFAMAJacques Bofferding, Head of Market & Financing Services UK, BNP Paribas Securities Services
Funds as Collateral
Is your firm already using money market funds, mutual funds or other fund units as collateral?1 Yes, I'm already actively using fund units as collateral to support a variety of
different transactions
2 Yes, I'm am using fund units as collateral to a limited extent and am interested in learning more about where I can use this asset class more effectively
3 No, I'm not using fund units as collateral but am interesting in finding out what opportunities exist
4 No, I'm not using fund units as collateral and I'm not really interested in this.
5 What are funds? What time is lunch?
Should EMIR treat money market funds as a liquid, eligible asset class when discussing appropriate collateral for CCPs?
1 Yes, they are accepted as collateral for IM in the US and should also be accepted for IM coverage in Europe
2 No, I understand why EMIR treats them differently to Dodd-Frank
3 I wasn't aware the EMIR didn't allow CCPs to accept money market funds to be accepted as collateral
If the regulator changes the way that constant NAV funds are treated both from regulatory and liquidity standpoint, how will this change your view on money market funds in general?
1 No change
2 Increased appetite for money market funds, in particular variable NAV funds
3 Decreased appetite for money market funds in general
Moderator Claude Kremer, Partner, Head of investment management, Arendt & Medernach
William Gilson, Managing Director, Aviva InvestorsSheenagh Gordon-Hart, Executive Director, J.P. Morgan EuropeWilliam Jones, Managing Director, ManagementPlusKen Barry, Vice President, State Street Ireland
AIFMD
- The manager issues
- The service providers: depositary issues
- Distribution/passport issues
- What’s next: future of the AIF-brand?
For Alternative Managers: What is the impact of AIFMD on your business model?
1. No real impact on our business model; this is just a compliance exercise resulting in additional cost
2. No real impact on our business model but it does significantly impact our operational, legal and/or governance model set-up
3. Real impact on our business model, in terms of fund raising and/or investment focus
What will be the impact of new rules on depositaries:
1. The increase of costs for depositaries will be significant and will not be outweighted by the advantages conferred by the AIFMD
2. The increase of costs for depositaries will be significant but will be outweighted by the advantages conferred by the AIFMD
3. The increase of costs for depositaries will be marginal and will be outweighted by the advantages conferred by the AIFMD
Going forward, do you expect AIFs to be marketed with or without the EU passport?
1. With the EU passport, because private placement regimes at national levels will be too restrictive
2. Without the EU passport, because national private placement rules will fit the purpose
3. Using both models until 2018 when private placement rules may be abandoned
Do you expect AIF to become another European brand next to UCITS?
1. Yes
2. No
3. Maybe
4. Too early to say at this stage
Moderator Alan Chalmers, Publisher, Funds Europe Magazine
Joost van Leenders, Investment Specialist Allocation & Strategy,BNP Paribas Investment PartnersSteen Grøndahl, Head of Research, Nordea MarketsBruno Colmant, Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Just Imagine…
What if: The questions to consider :
Looking at the some of the worst and best scenarios that could face the Funds Industry what do you think? What is the likelihood of the following events?
Scenario 1 The economic collapse of China eg banking collapse, housing bubble bursts, negative real growth. What do you think are the chances?
1 Very Unlikely2 Unlikely3 50/50 chance4 Likely5 Very Likely
Scenario 2 The economic collapse of the US eg political stalemate, increased budget deficit, no growth and currency devaluation. What do you think are the chances ?1 Very Unlikely
2 Unlikely
3 50/50 chance
4 Likely
5 Very Likely
Scenario 3 Quantitative easing has been used to generate liquidity and as a stimulus for growth. What do you think should happen now?
1 It should be stopped now immediately
2 The tap should slowly be turned off
3 Maintain it for the time being
4 The Global economies need further stimulus
5 Even Germany needs to start doing it
Scenario 4 Southern Europe has been the sick man of Europe. In 10 years time could Southern Europe be the powerhouse of Europe?
1 Very Unlikely
2 Unlikely
3 50/50 chance
4 Likely
5 Very Likely