Welcome

Welcome to Issue 5 of On Course Profits, this month it's all about the Grand National,

but we've also got a system for the early flat season with some trainers who start things

off with a bang or more importantly start things off with a level stakes profit.

This Flat Season Flyer is our guest article this month and comes from Simon Patton of

Simon Patton Racing.

The system from our in house team this month looks at race trends to identify the

winner of the Crabbies Grand National which this year runs on Saturday 11th April.

We have nominated the likely qualifiers from the method in the article but once the 48

hour declarations are out we will send an alert to your phone or tablet with the

confirmed selections, watch out for that.

As well as our product reviews and tipster tables we also have the story of how a gang

managed to manipulate the prices from the race track to get themselves a 9,000/1

winner over 100's of slips.

And we have details of how we can use free bets and enhanced place terms from

bookmakers to bag ourselves a tasty little risk free profit from the National.

I hope you enjoy this month’s issue.

All the best

Darren Power

Click for Free Tips

Flat Season Flyer

With Cheltenham now either a very distant or lasting memory, many people are now

starting to turn their attention to the forthcoming flat season. This article looks at a

system that should help you get off to a flying start in April and May.

The main focus of the system is the trainers who in recent years (2012-14) have

consistently got off to a quick start and have delivered a combination of good strike

rates and strong profit and loss performance.

The reason we are only looking at the last 3 years is because the trends in horse racing

are constantly changing with the betting markets quickly catching up with positive

angles so we need to ensure that any systems we develop are reflecting this and are

progressive.

All the data shown is taken from the excellent Horse Race Base web-site.

So first of all let’s look at the trainers that have delivered a strike rate of around 20% or

higher (minimum of 25 qualifying races).

As you will see from the chart, there are 4 trainers who have delivered a strike rate of

20%+, I have also included R Beckett as whilst the strike rate is only just over 18% he

has delivered this over a significant amount of races and is achieving a very strong P&L

performance.

I then went on to analyse any other consistent trends that correlate across this group of

trainers. Firstly I looked at race type.

You will see that all the three race types above are producing a positive P&L

performance, however my personal preference is to maintain an overall strike rate of

circa 20% so as a result of this I will only be including Maiden and Handicap races

within the system.

The next criteria I looked at was the horse's age.

When looking at the combination of both strike rate and P&L we can see that the

strongest performance clearly comes from the horses aged 3 to 5.

I then went on to look at a number of other criteria including going, class and best

position in the last 3 runs but none of these gave any further significant improvements.

Based on the system criteria so far of;

Month; April and May.

Trainers; R Beckett, P Charalambous, A King, S Kittow, J Mackie.

Race Type; Handicaps and Maidens.

Horses Age; 3 to 5.

The results for the system can be seen in the chart below.

In summary from April 2012 to March 2015 the system has produced 292 selections

(average of 48 per month) with 61 winners at a strike rate of 20.8%. The P&L profit to

1pt level stakes is +169pts at SP and +237pts at BSP.

Many people may choose to use this system as it is above, but for those that want to be

more selective there was one final piece of criteria that I looked at. As we know many

trainers have both preferences and a stronger performance at specific courses so let’s

take a look at this data.

If we continue to work on the same strike rate principle and include only courses which

have a strike rate of 20% and over with a positive P&L we add the following courses to

the system.

Ascot, Bath, Chepstow, Epsom, Goodwood, Leicester, Pontefract, Ripon, Warwick

and Newmarket.

The final system performance including the courses is as follows:

In summary from April 2012 to March 2015 the system has produced 85 selections

(average of 14 per month) with 29 winners at a strike rate of 34.1%. The P&L profit to

1pt level stakes is +87pts at SP and +113pts at BSP.

I mentioned at the start of the article that it is very important to develop systems that are

progressive, with improving performance. If we take a look at the final chart below, we

can see that this system is improving year on year in respect to both strike rate and P&L

performance.

The choice as to whether you use the system with the courses included or not, depends

on your own betting style and the number of bets you like to place on a weekly/monthly

basis. Either way this system should be a helpful addition to your betting armoury to

kick start the flat season.

Thanks.

Simon Patton.

www.simonpattonracing.com

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Aintree – A method in the madness?

No sooner is the Cheltenham Festival over this year and we are waiting with

anticipation for the Crabbie’s Grand National Festival at Aintree.

The Festival kicks off on Thursday 9th April and runs until Saturday 11th April with the

final day, giving us the Crabbie’s Grand National. Over the three days of the Festival

this year there will be twenty two races and it is estimated more than 150,000 race goers

will attend over the three days.

The Grand National itself is likely to be watched by an estimated 600 million viewers

throughout the world. It attracts punters who would normally not even bat an eyelid at a

horse race, but for some reason the Grand National grabs many a non gambler and sees

them look to put a pin in the newspaper, or pick a horse from a hat in the office

sweepstake when they would otherwise not even notice that there was a race meeting

going on. Needless to say the race rakes in millions for the bookmakers!

If you speak to most people about the Grand National they see it as a lottery and feel

that any horse has a chance of winning the race, interesting given that the first recorded

winner of the race back in 1839 was called…Lottery.

Of course all horses are in with a chance but some may be in with a greater chance than

others…

This feature race is considered by many to be the most eagerly awaited steeplechase of

the racing calendar. It is a testing race with 40 runners battling the tough Aintree course

for not one, but two circuits.

The race is 4 miles 3 furlongs and 110 yards long, with sixteen of the most testing

fences in the world, 16 fences are jumped on the first circuit of the 2 and ¼ mile course

and 14 of these are jumped again on the second circuit, the exceptions being The Chair

and the Water Jump. It is the ultimate test for both horse and jockey. With the

modification though the fences are considered to be much kinder than previously and

now class has a much bigger part to play than pure chance alone.

Around 150 tonnes of spruce branches are brought in from the Lake District to dress the

jump fences, with each fence originally having being made of a wooden frame and

covered with the distinct green spruce. Since 2013 the frame has been replaced with a

softer more forgiving material referred to as “plastic birch” in the interest of safety for

both the horses and the jockey’s. There is still concern as every jockey and their mount

vie to get a good position and a clear view of that first fence. At Aintree a front running

horse is not all bad if it has true stamina as a clear view of the fences can be paramount

in not being brought down.

The flat course means that the race more often than not is run at a break neck pace and

as a jockey you hope for a good and natural jumper to carry you around unscathed.

Without a doubt every horse has a chance of winning a race like the Grand National but

there are a number of ways we can look to try and find the winner. The most common

way is by looking at a horses past form and comparing this against other runners in the

race, but there is also another approach we can adopt, race profiling.

Race profiling looks back at historical statistics which have been accrued by the past

successful winners to provide a picture of certain characteristics which are useful for a

horse to have if it is to have an enhanced chance of winning.

The profiles themselves can be created and adjusted depending on how significantly we

feel the trait should be considered and based on the data available to the profiler.

The past has thrown up a number of interesting statistical trends regarding weight, age,

official rating, and number of days since their last run and previous Aintree form which

may help us to eliminate a large number of the field before they even lift the starting

tape!

Profiling doesn’t necessarily give us the winner, but it can give us a shortlist of potential

winning candidates.

Valuable races such as The National are seen as the best for profiling as they have a

tendency to regularly be won by horses which show a particular set of characteristics.

Let’s take a look at the winners for the last ten years.

First up a little snippet of famous history, no horse other than Red Rum in 1973 and

1974 has ever won back to back Grand National’s, and although it would be great to see

Dr Newland, an amateur trainer, win again statistics suggest that this is unlikely.

Neither the winning trainers nor the winning jockeys can shed much light on a possible

winner trend or pattern given the last ten years data, though the pairing of W P Mullins

and Ruby Walsh at the time of writing make us think they may be ones to look out for at

Aintree given their first day successes at the Cheltenham Festival.

Distance – The 4 mile plus course is a genuine test of stamina. Generally speaking any

horse which has not won over three miles or further can be discounted immediately so

we can draw a line through those who haven’t been “the distance”. The last horse to win

the Grand National having NOT won over three miles previously was Gay Trip back in

1970.

Course Experience – Previous experience over the fences at Aintree is a definite

advantage. Seven of the last ten winners had already had a trip over the fences so it

would pay to take notice of those horses that have had a previous run at Aintree. If they

have been successful we can assume that they are not intimidated by the size of the

fences. If a horse fell or unseated its rider last time out it may pay to take them out of

the equation as these fences are something else and are not for the faint heated.

Form / Class – All the winners from the past ten years have had an Official Rating of

137 or greater, and don’t be put off if they have had a run within the past month to six

weeks. Many of the winners had actually had a run within the previous month. Also all

but Ballabriggs and Pineau De Re had previously won a Class 1 / Class A race.

Weight – In the last 20 years only one winner has carried more than 11-6 around the

course and distance.

Every additional pound of weight counts, particularly if the going comes up on the soft

to heavy side and zapping stamina.

Six of the last ten winners and fifteen of the last twenty winners have carried 11 stone or

less.

Age – Every winner in the last 10 years has been 9 years of age or older. Experience

and maturity count. Based on historic records we can dismiss all horses aged 6 and 7 as

we need to go back more than 70 years to find a winner in this age bracket. Statistically

in the past horses aged 11 years or older had not been successful either, but the last three

years have bucked that trend winning at prices of 33/1, 66/1 and 25/1. So, keep in mind

horses aged 9 years and over. (Only 3 horses in the last thirty years have won the race

aged 8, Bindaree, Party Politics and Corbiere).

Breeding - Mon Mome in 2009 was the first French bred horse in more than a century

to win the Grand National, and yet again another historical trend is broken in recent

years. In the last six years Mon Mome, Neptune Collonges and Pineu de Re have all

been French bred. This may be due to the fact that in more recent years there has been

an increase in French bloodstock in the yards of the likes of Mullins and Nicholls to

name a few. It may well be that we see more French bred horses in the future so we

shouldn’t discount them completely.

Price / The Market – Interestingly in the last 10 years five of the last 10 winners have

been priced at 25/1 or greater, admittedly Mon Mome was exceptionally priced at

100/1, but don’t be put off by a healthy price. We are looking at 40 horses and jockeys

looking to jump 30 fences over a four mile course. There is always a chance that things

can go against them or go for them. It’s not the lottery it once was maybe but getting a

clear and unhindered run is still paramount in the minds of jockeys and trainers.

Cheltenham – Racing at Cheltenham and Aintree are two different animals completely.

Don’t look to Cheltenham form to transfer to Aintree. Look down the field at

Cheltenham for potential Aintree runners…..

The Method

1. A list of the horses currently entered for the Grand National can be found by visiting

www.racingpost.com and clicking on Cards and then Big Race Entries.

Clicking on Big Race Entries will bring up a list of forthcoming races and scrolling

down you will see Grand National on April 11th.

Clicking on “Card” will bring up the list of horses currently entered together with their

race information, weight, ratings etc.

Clicking on “Betting” will give the current Ante Post Prices.

Of the 87 horses currently still entered (as at 11th March) only 40 will actually be able

to race. So we will need to look again after the 48 hour declarations have been given to

see who has made it in to the handicap and to see our definitive list of runners.

Currently, assuming that all of the horses shown enter the 48 hour declaration the

runners will be:

2. Looking back at our profiling we can exclude any horse which will be carrying more

than 11-6 – Crossed out in black. This takes out the first five horses.

3. Then exclude any horse aged less than 9 years of age, and those aged 12 or older. –

Crossed out in red. This takes out last year’s winner, but given the statistic of back to

back winners we shouldn’t worry too much.

4. All of the remaining horses in the current list have an Official Rating greater than 137

however a number haven’t won a Class 1 / A race – Crossed out in purple.

5. Lose any horse from the list which has not had experience at the Aintree course –

Crossed out in green.

6. Now remove any horse which has not won over at least three miles or more - Crossed

out in blue.

So we at least have managed to reduce our potential 40 runners down to just 8

candidates given the list of runners remain unchanged. Given the nature of the race, and

based on the current entries and Ante Post betting we’ll look to back three horses each

way against the field at reasonable prices.

Rocky Creek 14/1

Al Co 40/1

Carlito Brigante 66/1

Remember that many of the bookmakers may offer five or even possibly six places so

shop around on the offers before placing your bets.

When the final declarations have been made we will run through the above criteria

again as we may have a number of changes before the race on the 11th April. We'll

send an alert to your On Course Profits app with the final selections :)

Good luck.

© 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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Product Reviews

Welcome back. This month another four new services to review and our regular updates on those

systems still currently under the microscope.

BST Ratings Service.

Cost

Lay Service and Win/Place currently £40.00 per month each.

Full Service currently £60.00 per month / Quarterly £150.00.

This is a horse racing service which consists of a morning email with advice as to

whether to place your bets as a win, place or as a low odds lay.

There is an odds cut off for the lay bets of 5/1 (6.00 decimal).

The Trial

All of the results are being reported at Betfair Starting Prices.

This service has been followed since the 20th January, and as at the end of February the

results were as follows:

Win bets – 51 selections of which 25 were winners (strike rate 49%). A good strike rate

is being achieved but unfortunately we made a small loss of 2.50 points. This is

probably to do with the fact that many of the winners were starting at odds on. We can

imagine that there would be a reasonable profit if you were able to take the benefit of

Best Odds Guaranteed early prices.

Place bets - 110 selections of which 63 were placed (strike rate 57.2%). Again a small

loss of 3 points at Betfair Starting Prices but taking the early odds may well have

improved this result.

Lay bets – 170 selections with 111 losing their races so a strike rate of (65.3%) and a

profit overall of 25.70 points. The lays were at prices between 1.27 and 5.9, and a third

of these were below 2.00.

It was a pleasant change to see a laying service doing well and we will continue to

monitor and report again next month. Let’s hope that the positive results continue.

Conclusion - Looks promising. Find out more about the BST Ratings Service Click Here.

One Point Wins

Cost

Currently £20.00 per month / £45.00 quarterly / £60.00 half yearly.

This is a flat / AW service which we have access to for one month and as the name

suggests it is a simple 1 point win staked at Betfair SP on all of the selections provided.

The Trial

With 19 winners from 82 selections there was a minimal loss of 0.54 points.

We have managed to agree a further month’s access following the poor results and we

will see what next month brings.

Conclusion - The Jury's out.

You can find out more about the One Point Wins service - Click Here

Bet Alchemist

Cost

New Members offer - £15.00 for first month (50% discount).

Normal price £30.00 per month. / £79.00 quarterly.

This service concentrates on the bigger races and therefore the majority of betting is

down over the weekend and on the big meetings.

The Trial

The bets suggested so far have been 1 or 2 point bets as the service looks for value and

as such the majority are each way bets.

So far we have received 19 selections and 4 winners and a profit of 5.60 points, and an

ROI of 23%.

We are hopeful that Cheltenham will deliver further profits as we have already received

7 ante post bets.

Conclusion - Check back next month.

Find out more about Bet Alchemist - Click Here.

Tom Nelson Racing

Cost

£4.95 for first 30 days (New Members), £29.95 per month thereafter / Quarterly £69.95

a/ Lifetime membership £149.95.

Horse racing selections advised with suggested staking by email daily. The numbers of

tips advised are on average between 60 and 70 per month.

The Trial

We started the trial for this service on 6th February and to date there have been 16

winners from 50 selections and a profit of 24.88 points at advised prices.

However, yet again we find a service which takes no account of non-runners and the

subsequent Rule 4 Deductions.

For example, a 3 point each way selection at 100/30 in a seven horse race. Three horses

were withdrawn and therefore only 4 runners went to post and the selection won the

race but at 8/11. The website was showing the win at the 100/30 price and hence 12

points profit, the actual profit being closer to 3 points, a big difference.

But, a profit is a profit at this is showing even at Betfair Starting Prices. A further month

or two will give us a much clearer picture of their true worth.

Conclusion - The Jury's out.

Find out more about Tom Nelson Racing - Click Here.

Systems Updates

Sequence Lays

Sequence Lays is a daily horse racing laying service from the Probetting Club Stable.

This system advocates increasing your stakes after a loser and stopping at a winner. As

we reported last month this can be a little unnerving when the knock on effect is that

you can potentially be staking over 25 points to win 0.95 points.

We decided to have a look at the results if we had laid based on a level stake method, if

we had laid to a liability and if we use the retrieval backing system suggested.

Level stakes lays – The resulting profit/ loss to date -5.00 points.

Laying to a liability – Resulting profit / loss to date -1.80 points.

Laying using the retrieval system and stop at a winner – Resultant profit / loss to date

+19.95 points (but a note of warning….)

The 9th February there were three selections ALL of which won their races and

therefore were losing lays.

Staking one point on the first horse to win 0.95 points after commission for the next lay

meant trying to retrieve a loss of 32 points the following day. This required a stake of

34.69 points on a selection trading at 2.59 and therefore risking a further 55 points –

fortunately after holding breath this horse lost and was a winning lay…phew!!!

This is definitely not one for the feint hearted!

Find out more about Sequence Lays – Click Here.

Value Football Betting

There are still some significant developments going on with this service, and as the

saying goes, all good things come to those who wait.

Let’s hope that it doesn’t disappoint.

Just in case you can’t wait…find out more about Value Football Betting now – Click

Here.

National Hunt Specialist

February was a good month for this service with 23 winners from 76 selections and a

profit of 42.21 points.

So far over the review period there have been 158 winners and 40 winners with an

overall profit of 49.41 points.

The profit figures are shown to Betfair SP which is the fairest way and removes any

complications regarding Rule 4 deductions for non-runners.

With an ROI% of 15.63% and only two months into the review we will hope that when

we report next month we can continue to offer our praises.

More information on the National Hunt Specialist – Click Here.

Exchange Profits

Our review on Exchange Profits concludes this month.

The month of February reported the best backing results so far over the review period

with a profit of 19.65 points to advised stakes and odds.

The laying side of the service however continued to make a loss, this month some 50.00

points, with our total loss over the three month period running to 129 points.

For a system which says it reports consistent profits this service over the three month

period was overall disappointing.

Find out more about Exchange Profits – Click Here

Fallers and Failures

Our review on Fallers and Failures concludes this month.

Of the 22 selections given during the month of February 17 lost their race, however the

losing bets were at average odds of 4.29 and therefore were significant wiping out any

gains made, and we had a loss of 0.30 points after 5% Betfair commission.

Over the full three month review period we ended positively but only to the tune of 2.00

points!

Given the claims of 20 points profit every month we have yet again another

disappointing service.

Find out information about Fallers and Failures – Click Here.

© 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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Another freebie from the bookies

anyone?

Well, if you’re offering…it would be rude not to.

After having done so much work selecting our bet for the Grand National isn’t it galling

when that big priced horse you have backed each way finishes just out of the places.

Swearing at the television makes us feel better but it doesn’t change the fact that our

hard earned money has been lost.

What if you could ensure that you win either way, and better still what if you actually

have the chance of winning not once but twice on the same horse? What?

As we have mentioned in previous issues the bookmakers want to give us free money

and the Grand National will be no exception.

If we take a visit to www.oddschecker.com you will see a tab at the top entitled “Free

Bets” and this will bring up the current free bets and "special offers". We are

particularly interested in the special offers.

Many of the bookmaker’s offers will be listed here, and come Grand National Day you

can be sure that they bookies will be clambering to attract your hard earned cash.

Regularly each year there is will usually be a bookmaker who will offer enhanced place

terms and pay each way on five places instead of the standard four places. On occasion

one or two will even look to offer six places.

Nearer race day we will be surprised not to see some bookies offering these enhanced

terms and combining them with a “Welcome Bonus” offer (see Issue 1) which can be

rather lucrative if you know how to play the figures.

First of all open a new account with a bookmaker offering the enhanced place odds of

five. Check the Terms & Conditions to ensure that you can use your free bet on an

each way selection. You need to ensure that your free bet will be credited to your

account in full if you place an each way bet, for example SkyBet Terms & Conditions

read – “ Simply place your 1st single or each way bet on any sport market at odds of

evens or above, and we will match the stake, pound for pound, up to £50”.

From the Grand National race card look to find a horse that stands a chance of finishing

in the places, ideally fifth!

Let’s assume that the bookmakers free bet offer is to the value of £25.00, and they will

let us stake our money on an each way bet, so £12.50 each way.

You could look to use our profiling method to make your selection, although ideally try

and choose a horse from the first five or six in the betting. The assumption will be that

they should run well, and as we are going to look to lay the horse on the betting

exchange such as Betfair we do not really want to be laying at high prices. To lay at the

higher priced end of the market will tie up and require significant funds in your Betfair

account. We’d like to lay at a shorter price if possible, but if not as close to our back

price we can.

Just for note Betfair also offer new member bonuses so if you haven’t opened an

account with them yet it may be worth your while to do so.

Let’s assume that we have chosen our horse and that the selection is being offered at 9/1

or 10.00 in decimal prices.

The each way terms for the race will be ¼ the odds for a place. The Betfair rules for the

Grand National TBP (To Be Placed) market also states four places.

Our back price, 9/1 ÷ 4 = 2.25 (plus your stake gives decimal odds of 3.25) on the place

part of our bet.

Over on Oddschecker we can pull up their Hedging Calculator, our trusted tool for

scalping the bookmakers.

If you are unsure how to access this check back in our previous Issues for step by step

instructions.

1. In the “Back Price” box enter your decimal back odds, in this instance 10.00.

2. In the “Back Stake” box enter £12.50 (this is the win part of our bet we are working

with now).

3. In the “Lay Price” box insert the Betting Exchange “Lay” price. In most instances

this will be slightly higher than your back price so we will assume a price of 10.70 for

this example.

4. Leave the commission rates as unchanged. You will not pay commission on your

back with the bookmaker but you will pay commission with Betfair which we will

assume is 5%.

The calculator shows that “you should lay” £11.74 in the win market at 10.70, and

whether your horse wins or loses you will lose £1.35.

We have used this type of calculation in previous Issues as a way to scalp Welcome and

Deposit Bonuses.

This time we are going to also repeat the exercise for the place part of our each way bet.

Previously we have backed and laid for win only bets.

Our place price is 3.25.

Our stake is unchanged at £12.50, remember we are betting with the bookmaker £12.50

each way to a total stake of £25.00.

We will assume that our Betfair “Lay Price” in the place market this time is 3.50.

The calculator shows that “You should lay” £11.78 at 3.25 in the place market and

whether your horse wins or loses you will lose £1.31.

You will need approximately £150.00 in total in your Betfair account to cover all of

your lay liabilities in the win and place markets on the exchange.

So, credit the bookmakers account with the £25.00 needed to place the bet, and place

your £12.50 each way on your selection, then immediately place your lay bets on the

win and place markets on Betfair.

Now you can turn on the TV and watch the race knowing that in fact you have had as

good as any a free bet on the Grand National.

What are our possible results?

1. Our horse runs an absolute blinder and wins the race!

Your bookmaker will return to your account £125.00 on the win market plus £40.63 on

the place part of the bet giving a total of £165.63. We need to deduct our original total

stake of £25.00, leaving us a profit of £140.63.

BUT

Your lay bets on Betfair will have lost so you will lose £113.85 + £29.44 = £143.29.

Your net profit = a loss of £2.66.

However, when the bookmaker settles your bet they will also give you your free bet of

£25.00 so you will in fact be in profit to the tune of £22.34.

2. Your horse runs well but finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th.

The bookmaker will pay out your place winnings of £40.63 less your original stake of

£25.00 is £15.63 profit.

Your win lay on Betfair will have won so you will have a profit of £11.74.

Your place lay on Betfair will have lost so you will have a loss of £29.44.

So overall you will make a loss of £2.07, but you will have your free bet worth £25.00

so therefore there will be a net profit of £25.00 – £2.07 = £22.93.

Now here comes the good bit…

3. Your horse finishes 5th.

The bookmaker pays out as part of their special terms which is a profit of £28.13.

Your Betfair lay bets win too which means you profit £11.74 + £11.78.

So you make a total profit of £51.65 AND you get a free bet worth £25.00.

Total profit £76.65 – Thank you very much.

So on race day make sure that you search for the best offers and if possible combine

them.

If you can find a bookie offering six places go for it, but you can be sure someone will

be offering five places.

Now we have the basics of betting and laying under our belt, next month we will be

taking a look at alternative ways we can use “arbitrage” for what is considered to be

“risk free betting”.

© 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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A Coup from the Past – The Dagenham

Coup.

On June 30th 1964 a gang of 125 men decided that Dagenham Greyhound track was the

perfect place to stage a betting coup which stood to cost the off course bookmakers

millions.

Three weeks previously they had attempted to rig the Tote pool at the track but were

foiled, undeterred they returned to the track and this time no one would spoil their plan.

The mastermind behind the plan was a man named John Turner.

Turner hired a hall and gathered 125 friends plus a few others suggested by friends and

told them that he hoped to win a substantial sum of money with a little help from them.

He was at pains to say that it was perfectly legal. All those who helped would be paid a

nominal sum and a commission if the coup worked and they managed to get paid out.

Eighty of the group would be placed at the track at Dagenham and the remainder would

be going around the country to the off-course betting shops.

He employed the men to monopolise all 28 of the Tote windows at the Dagenham track

placing bets in a race where he felt confident that two of the six dogs in the sixth race on

the card stood no chance of winning.

Some of the men took up their positions at the Tote windows before the betting had

opened and standing their ground they refused to allow anyone else to reach the

windows. A few of them placed combination bets on the two dogs he felt were highly

unlikely to win whilst the others each bought a ticket on each of the remaining 12

combinations involving the four other dogs.

Once his workers had gone into action on course the odds moved and Turner had orders

relayed by phone to other helpers near the betting shops throughout the country who

used the track odds. The men were told how to bet and they used the same combinations

as those placing the bets on the track.

In total some 11,000 bets were placed on the two outsiders which meant that in turn

significantly bigger odds were offered for the combination bets he placed on the other

four dogs in the race.

So in essence what they did was to over-bet the no hoper dogs at the track tote so the

price on those was very short but the price on the dogs that could win was huge.

Then the bets placed off course were placed at tote odds IE the huge false prices created

by the bets on the no hopers!

The result of the race was:

Buckwheat – 1st at 2-1

Handsome Lass – 2nd at 9/2

The tote dividend odds came in at 9217-1 on the combination!

Turner held one winning ticket at the track, but the bet had been repeated some 300

times by other individuals at off course bookmakers. There were also an undetermined

number of winning tickets elsewhere for those individual punters who had bet

unwittingly on the winning combination.

Due to the size of the dividend the declaration had to be announced over the speaker as

the Tote’s indicator board could not cope with the astronomical amount but, once

announced, things started to move against the gang quickly.

The plan itself was so successful that the off course bookmakers liabilities were

astronomical. One leading bookmaker was even quoted in the Sporting Life as saying

that there would not have been enough money in the Bank of England to meet all of the

liabilities that the bookmakers had encountered.

News came from the track came that any payment of winning dividends was going to be

withheld pending an inquiry and that interestingly ten minutes before the race started

the telephones at the track had gone dead only to be miraculously restored to working

order shortly after, and therefore an investigation was needed.

The police were called by the Dagenham track but later issued a statement saying that

their investigations had not shown any cause for them to investigate further, However

fifty bookmakers who had got together that evening issued a statement saying that under

the auspices of the National Sporting League they had unanimously decided to void all

forecast bets on the race.

The everyday unsuspecting punters were up in arms as they too were to be penalised by

not having their winnings paid out even though they had been totally unaware of the

shenanigans which had been going on at the track.

A further development came however when Charles Layfield of the National Sporting

League condemned the bookmaker’s announcement adding that “the result of the

enquiry must come first before any statement is made. If Dagenham stewards say that

forecast bets on the race are void then all such bets are void. But if they decide to pay

out on the declared dividend to the winning ticket holder, then we will have to think

again”.

Five bookmakers very quickly issued a law suit against Romford Stadium Ltd the

owners of the Dagenham greyhound track for allegedly failing to operate their Tote

properly, and a suit against Turner and three co-defendants, for allegedly procuring Tote

odds by unlawful means. The grounds of the suit against Turner were that under the

Betting Gaming and Lotteries Act of 1963 the riggers had prevented the general public

from accessing the Tote windows and therefore the race should be null and void.

Turner argued for his defence in court that he had done nothing wrong and had not

interfered or done anything to manipulate the outcome of the race. The dogs could just

have easily lost as won. The men he had employed at the Tote windows could well have

placed the wrong bets and the women taking the bets at the windows could easily have

made mistakes.

Romford Stadium in their defence argued that its responsibility was only to ensure that

Tote was mechanically sound, and it had been.

The plaintiffs argued that betting was based on trust and reasonable behaviour. They

used the analogy of if you expect to pay £2.00 for a steak in a butchers shop and the bill

comes in at £75.00 would this be legal? It would not be reasonable behaviour if the

butcher gave you the higher bill.

They also said that the odds are “as a result of the opinions of substantially all the

people attending at the course who desire to and should be able to, put money in to that

pool”. So, by the men blocking other punters from placing their bets, they had

manipulated the odds.

The case came to trial in the High Court more than a year later.

In a separate action John Turner took Romford Stadium to court claiming his winnings

of £987 11s 9d on his 2s bet on the race.

Romford Stadium contested both Mr Turners claim and that of the bookmakers.

The plaintiffs argued that the Dagenham stewards would have been able to clearly see

how many bets had been placed at the Tote windows and on which dogs. It was also

pointed out that there was a direct telephone line between the Tote and the stewards.

They explained that the six dog race had provided 30 possible combinations for

forecasting the first and second dogs. By backing 18 of the 30 possible combinations the

“conspirators” fed a large amount of money into the Tote pool on what they considered

to be certain losing bets. It was claimed that Dagenham stadium officials must have

been well aware that a coup was taking place and that it was their legal duty not to

declare a dividend.

Punter Alfred Parker gave evidence on behalf of the bookmakers. On the day on

question he tried to place a £30.00 bet on a three dog combination forecast on the race,

and he was told in no uncertain terms to go away. He recalled that one man appeared to

be placing the bets whilst another in the queue was feeding him money.

On the sixth day of the hearing John Turner told the court how he had arranged the

coup. He said he didn’t like the word coup and preferred the word “method”.

He referred to an article he had read which had been issued by the Bookmakers

Protection Association. It described attempts to manipulate the Tote as “sharp practice”

but “not criminal”.

He said he had told the men to go to the windows in an “orderly fashion” and on no

account was there to be any trouble.

He stated to the court that he had had no involvement in the phones going dead 10

minutes before the race and he had no reason to do so insisting that no bookmaker could

have guessed what was going on and telephoned the stadium.

He admitted that he had had 35 men and women putting the bets on with off course

bookmakers and 90 men inside the track covering the Tote windows.

Mr Justice Paull commented that he felt Mr Turners “method” was “a bit too clever”

and that it would have been a far clever scheme if those monopolising the Tote windows

had monopolised ¾ rather than all of the windows, and thus reducing suspicion.

One thing Justice Paulll did find surprising was that the stadium officials knew

“something funny” was going on but that they did nothing about it; he also let it be

known that he had been personally approached in an attempt to influence him in the

case! He had received a letter but stated in the court that he had not opened it and read

its contents as the envelope clearly conveyed the message intended.

At the end of the ten day hearing the final ruling came in and the Justice ruled for the

stadium against the bookmakers saying that the track was not at fault.

He described it as a “battle of wits” between Turner and the off course bookmakers and

he felt that Turners scheme was in no way founded on fraud and that no attempt was

made to conceal from the bookmakers the coup taking place.

He made note of the fact that based on the evidence presented to him Turner had been

carried round the track in Triumph after the race, that the race had been fairly run and

that the result was a true one.

The coup was described by the Justice as “brilliantly successful”.

With regard to the claim against Turner he argued that as the “basic condition of any

forecast bet laid with a bookmaker at tote odds on any dog race is that both bookmaker

and the backer are to be bound by the odds arrived at as a result of the opinions of

substantially all people attending at the racecourse who desire to and should be able to

put moneys into the forecast pool.”

“If it can be proved that as a result of a concerted effort, the result shown on the tote is

completely at variance with the condition I have mentioned, then whether the backer has

or has not taken part in the concerted effort, the bet is off”. That means that in law any

claim on the bookmaker as the result of a forecast bet on this race would, in my

judgement, have failed”.

The Tote bet however was legal and Turner should be paid out his winnings. He added

that the correct settlement for off-course bets should be a “return of stakes”. He also

added that if the bookies decided to make any token payments it was entirely their own

affair, but this was directed at the “innocent” punters who had placed their bets

unwittingly.

How many bookmakers offered more than a return of stake is unknown but we can

probably assume that there weren’t many, if any!

© 2015 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd

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The On Course Profits Top Ten

Our On Course Top Ten looks to search out those services which over the past three

months have actively produced either, a good strike rate and modest profit or a good

rate of return with a lower strike rate, ideally both.

If your gambling style is risk averse, and you are someone who struggles to handle the

losing runs, then search for a Tipster who is providing a good strike rate with a

reasonable ROI (Return on Investment). That way you can look to earn steady profits

and stand less chance of suffering long losing runs.

If you are a high risk taker and happy to wait out those long losing runs then you can

look to those Tipsters who may have a considerably lower strike rate, but who tip those

larger priced winners which often give a greater ROI overall.

All of our top ten services are collated based on their performance over a three month

period recorded at level stakes.

If you are new to betting and have time to shop around then you should certainly look to

make the most of the Best Odds Guaranteed prices.

Our Tipster Top Ten based on returns to Best Odds Guaranteed.

No 1 - Value Backing - Strike Rate = 22% ROI = 40%

Carl Nicholson's Value Backing is a horse racing service providing on average a couple

of bets a week, but targeting those bigger priced value selections and looking to

continue making a steady profit. Last month saw his Value Backing Extra service in the

Top Ten, so it may well pay to keep a good eye on these services.

Find out more about the service.

No 2 - Simply The Bets Online The Nosebag - Strike Rate = 37% ROI = 20%

The website claims that the last three years have all been winning years with a

consistent strike rate and a consistently positive ROI. They are in our Top Ten again

this month and so the service is obviously doing something right. They are certainly

being consistent.

Find out more about the service.

No 3 - Bet Alchemist - Strike Rate = 27% ROI = 20%

Another service which is featuring regularly is Bet Alchemist and this month it has gone

back up the leaderboard. It is a tipping service which currently offers regular profitable

selections. It uses a combination of win and each way bets placed at the top end of the

horse racing market, betting on both National Hunt and Flat racing.

Find out more about the service.

No 4 - Lucky 7 Naps - Strike Rate = 24% ROI = 18%

A re-entry to the Top Ten is the Lucky 7 Naps. There was a slight drop in profits in the

early part of the year but they have done well to recover and surpass their previous high.

Let’s hope that we see them still here next month and that their profits continue. A

"specialist racing profits syndicate" which claims to offer "consistent cash profits".

Find out more about the service.

No 5 - Back Lucrative - Strike Rate = 18% ROI = 18%

Another from last month which has in fact moved up the table is Back Lucrative. With

both a steady strike rate and ROI they continue to produce profits from their selections.

A straight backing tipster service offering a developed betting system producing a level

stakes profit and how to find value.

Find out more about the service.

No 6 - Simply The Bets Online AW Racing Tips - Strike Rate = 29% ROI = 17%

We have another climber with Simply The Bets AW tips up from number 10 last month.

The website claims the last three years have all been winning years with a consistent

strike rate and a consistently positive ROI and it looks as though currently they are

living up to their claims.

Find out more about the service.

No 7 - Winners Galore - Strike Rate = 29% ROI = 14%

Winners Galore “throw the form book out of the window” and look to use their

knowledge gained from “the people in the know”. They claim to regular visit gallops

and have contacts who are “owners, trainers and stable boys”. They provide a few main

nap bets daily, usually between 2-5 selections delivered by email.

Find out more about the service.

No 8 - Martins Better Betting Lay Tips - Strike Rate = 68% ROI = 12%

Martins Better Betting Lay Tips has risen one place in the Tipster table. He offers a

level stakes laying service, offering daily selections at Betfair Starting Prices at 3.0 or

below. Both the strike rate and ROI have remained consistent.

Find out more about the service.

No 9 - Fuse Bets - Strike rate = 30% ROI = 10%

Fuse Bets is a new entrant offering both horse racing and football bets which are

emailed out daily, together with live evening “in-play tips”.

They also donate £5.00 of every subscription to the Injured Jockey’s Fund.

Find out more about the service.

No 10 - Pro Racing Tips - Strike Rate = 27% ROI = 12%

Pro Racing Tips comes from Chris Williams. Betting on the more fancied horses his

biggest priced winner has been 5/1 according to the website as he looks to minimise

long losing runs, however he does state that he “always makes sure” that his “bets have

value”. He also offers a low cost two week trial.

Find out more about the service.

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If you would like to advertise in On Course Profits then please click this link and raise a

ticket in our help desk.

Tell us a bit about what it is you would like to advertise and if it's a tipping service or

betting system include details of what proofing you currently do.

We'll then get back to you with rates and availability.

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The On Course Profits Monthly Method

Update.

The Midnight Legend *

Our Midnight Legend method came to an end on the 28th February and we finished

with a healthy profit over the three months of December through to February.

For the three month period we produced the following results:

1st December 2014 – 28th February 2015

158 selections

28 winners

63 placed (including winners)

Win strike rate 17.72%

Place Strike Rate 39.87%

Points Profit 30.17 (BSP) = level stakes ROI 19.09%

* Conclusion - Definitely one to follow for winter 2015 / 2016.