WELCOME BIENVENUE HERZLICH WILLKOMMEN BENVENUTI 8TH COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE ZURICH, 12 SEPTEMBER 2019

WELCOME PIERRE-YANN BLANCHANDIN, COUNTRY MANAGER, COFACE SWITZERLAND 8TH COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE ZURICH, 12 SEPTEMBER 2019

COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 3

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UNIQUE GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE ENHANCED INFORMATION CENTERS (EIC)

Coface's data and information sources as well as our risk assessment know-how are highly valuable.

COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 4

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USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO BRING SALVADOR DALI BACK TO LIVE WHAT IS REAL?

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AGENDA: «INTEGRITY OF INFORMATION IN THE AGE OF FAKE NEWS»

13:30 Welcome Coffee 14:00 Official Welcome Pierre-Yann Blanchandin, Country Manager, Coface Switzerland Introduction Kaspar Loeb, Senior Consultant cR-Kommunikation 14:15 Economic Outlook – Economic Outlook & Reliable data are crucial for economic analyses Julien Marcilly, Group Chief Economist, Coface 14:45 Integrity of information and personal integrity Olivier Bovet, State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, SECO 15:05 Coffee break & Networking

15:35 Trusted media in the age of fake news Andreas Schaffner, Editor-in-Chief, CNN Money 15:55 How people deal with fake news Bruno Wüest, Forschungstelle sotomo 16:15 Panel discussion Julien Marcilly, Coface / Olivier Bovet, SECO / Andreas Schaffner, CNN Money / Bruno Wüest, Forschungstelle sotomo 16:45 Closing remarks Pierre-Yann Blanchandin, Country Manager, Coface Switzerland 16:50 Apéro & Networking

2020 COUNTRY AND SECTOR RISK OUTLOOK

JULIEN MARCILLY CHIEF ECONOMIST

THE NEW NORMAL OF GLOBAL TRADE

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Global trade: Coface’s forecast (quarter on quarter % change, source: CPB)

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Q1

2008

Q3

2008

Q1

2009

Q3

2009

Q1

2010

Q3

2010

Q1

2011

Q3

2011

Q1

2012

Q3

2012

Q1

2013

Q3

2013

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017

Q3

2017

Q1

2018

Q3

2018

Q1

2019

Q3

2019

THE U.S. VERSUS CHINA:

Exchange rate policy

Trade policy

Fiscal policy (corporate taxes)

Geopolitical and strategic oppositions

Strong economic and financial links

Sanctions

FROM GEOPOLITICAL RISKS TO ECONOMIC POLICIES

CHINA IS CATCHING UP, RAISING CONCERNS IN THE WEST

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MOST R&D HAS CONCENTRATED ON THE ICT SECTOR

0.3%

10%10%12%

18%

14%

31%

27%

40%

37%

2006 2018

China Rest of the world Japan European Union USA

Share of global private R&D expenditure

Source: World Bank and Coface

ASIA: CORFACE CORPORATE PAYMENT SURVEY

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SCOPE

CHINA: COFACE CORPORATE PAYMENT SURVEY

COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 12

LONGER THAN 6 MONTHS PAYMENT DELAYS AS A % TURNOVER So

urce

: Cofa

ce C

hina P

ayme

nt Su

rvey

2019

US-CHINA TRADE WAR:

13

PAY ATTENTION TO INDIRECT EFFECTS ON EUROPEAN BUSINESSES Elasticity of Domestic Value Added (DVA) Exports

of Country X in relation to US tariffs on EU 15, the DVA receiver

Source: Coface

-0,4-0,7

-4,3

-3,4

-1,2

-5

-4,5

-4

-3,5

-3

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

Tota

l

Man

ufac

turin

g

Mac

hine

ry

Tran

spor

t equ

ip.

Che

mic

als

Min

ing

Woo

d, p

aper

Elec

tron

ical

equ

ip.

Food

pro

duct

s

Met

als

Text

ile

Agr

icul

ture

Statistically not significant Statistically significant (at 5%)

COFACE SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS – WESTERN EUROPE

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Sector Western Europe Austria France Germany Italy Netherlands

(the) Spain Switzerland United Kingdom

Agri-food

Automotive

Chemical

Construction

Energy

ICT

Metals

Paper

Pharmaceutical

Retail Textile-Clothing

Transport

Wood

MEASUREMENT VERSUS PERCEPTION POLITICAL RISK IN EUROPE:

Group Economic Research Department 15

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-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

10-06

10-07

10-08

10-09

10-10

10-11

10-12

10-13

10-14

10-15

10-16

10-17

10-18

EurozoneItalySpainFranceGermanyNetherlands

Source : The Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Commission

Eurozone: Business confidence (manufacturing sector)

Eurozone and the UK: GDP (Q2, quarter on quarter % change)

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,2

0,3

0,5

0,5

-0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6

UK

Germany

Italy

Eurozone

France

Spain

Netherlands

TWO SPEED EUROPE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE:

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EXPOSURE TO AUTO AND GERMANY IS KEY Central and Eastern Europe: Exports

(as a % of total, 2018)

0

10

20

30

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Slovakia

Czech Rep.Romania

SloveniaHungary

PolandAustria

Bulgaria

CroatiaLatvia

Estonia Lithuania

Exports to Germany (as a % of total)

Auto Exports (% of total)

EMERGING MARKETS:

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CAPITAL OUTFLOWS HAVE ABATED, EXCEPT FOR ARGENTINA

-34,9%-9,4%

-7,8%

-6,9%

-6,2%

-5,7%

-3,7%

-3,0%

-2,4%

1,0%

4,8%

5,7%

8,2%

9,9%

-40% -20% 0% 20%

Argentina

Turkey

Korea

Brazil

South Africa

Poland

Chile

India

Mexico

Indonesia

Russia

Thailand

Egypt

Ukraine

Emerging market currencies (% change vs US YTD, Sept. 2, 2019)

Argentina: What is the main problem affecting the country?

COFACE 2019 POLITICAL RISK INDEX

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CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT

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PHYSICAL RISKS

•Extreme weather events will increase in frequency and/or severity: cyclone, heat wave, wildfire, flood, landslide

•Longer-term shifts in climate patterns: warming, sea level, drought, rainfall

TRANSITION RISKS

•Regulatory development: changing business environment regarding legal framework

•Technological change: adoption of low-emission technologies

•Market risk: shifts in the supply and demand for certain goods, services or raw materials (e.g., plastic products in the chemical sector)

•Reputation risk: changes in consumers' perceptions of an organization's contribution to the transition to a low-carbon economy