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CISMA Call Agenda1:30pm Introductions

Rose Godfrey

1:35pm Technical Presentation

Weather and Climate Trends in the SE and their impact on Forests and Foresters– Pam Knox

1:55pm CISMA Update

Suncoast CISMA – Cynthia Grizzle

2:10pm Shoutouts

3rd Fall HalloWeed Count, CISMA Calendars, 10th FLEPPC CISMA Session, NISAW 2017

Polls

2:30pm Adjourn

This Month’s Call

3rd Call on the new Adobe Connect platform

• Same conference Number as before

• Same conference code

• New link

Technical Presentation

Weather and Climate Trends in the SE and their impact on Forests and

ForestersPresented by Pam Knox

Weather and Climate Trends in the Southeast and their Implications for

Forests and Foresters

Pam Knox

UGA Extension Climatologist

September 28, 2016

Florida Temperature Trends

Florida Temperature Trends

Florida Temperature Trends

Florida Precipitation Trends

Changes in Rainfall by Season

Trends show changes in precipitation by season, with winter, spring and summer getting drier and fall getting wetter

Changes in Rainfall Intensity

• High-intensity rains increasing (>2 inches per day)

• Annual total rainfall is not changing

• Fewer rainy days, more rain on each rainy day

• Longer dry spells

Florida Drought Trends

Other things that can affect trees

• Extreme winds from hurricanes, tropical storms, and thunderstorms have not changed much over time but are rare events so it is hard to predict

• Keep in mind that until this year we were in a “hurricane drought” in the Southeast for 10 years

• Ice and snow storms are so rare in the Southeast that we cannot identify trends

• Humidity levels are rising with temperature

How do we know what to expect in the future?

• Look at trends—how do you know which is the right trend?

• Use computers to model what might happen in the future

Weather vs. Climate Models

Weather models are designed to predict detailed hourly weather information for up to 7 days across a continent.

Emphasis: short term, individual storm evolution

Climate models are designed to predict multi-year climate conditions across the entire globe.

Emphasis: long-term, seasonal to multi-year average climate conditions

Projected Changes in Temperature

Predictions for temperature 100 years in the future show increases of 5-10 F. None of the models show cooling. Evaporation depends on temperature.

Projected Changes in Precipitation

Models of precipitation do not agree if we will have more or less rainfall. However, trends indicate whatever comes is more likely to be high-intensity with longer dry spells in between.

Other projected changes

• Population is predicted to continue growing

• Increased urbanization and pavement• Agriculture may move out of CA due to

water issues there

Projected changes to Southeast forests

• Red spruce and eastern hemlock, already declining in some areas, will be gone

• Conditions for pine growth may deteriorate and move major production north to NC and VA or change to longleaf pine

• Increasing water demand from urban populations plus increased drought could result in water shortages and lower stream flows in some areas

• Warmer temperatures may increase soil organic matter decomposition

• Increased fire hazard and insect outbreaks

Projected changes in tree species

Not all changes will be bad

• Increased carbon dioxide will “fertilize” plants, increasing growth (but also growth of exotics and weeds)

• Other parts of the country will be more severely affected than the Southeast

• Population growth will increase demand for lumber

The bottom line

• In the next century temperatures will rise 5-10 ̊̊F

• Growing season will increase by about 1 week per 1 ̊F

• Precipitation may increase or decrease but evaporation will rise and more rain will run off, decreasing soil moisture

• Winter storms should decrease but high winds may increase

• Tree species will migrate north over time and we may be able to grow more tropical species in the Southeast

• More competition for forest land from both agriculture and cities

• We will still have seasons, variability from year to year and weather!

Thank you!

Pam Knoxpknox@uga.edu706-310-3467

http://www.gaclimate.com

http://blog.extension.uga.edu/climate

CISMA Update

• Suncoast CISMA

• Presented by:

Cynthia Grizzle

RECENT EVENTS

Presentations

• February - Brooker Creek Preserve – Pinellas County

• June - Suncoast native Plant Society Meeting – Hillsborough County

• July - Presented at Safety Harbor Garden Club – Pinellas County

RECENT EVENTS

Workshops

• Calibration and Pollinators Workshop

– March 1st

– Sarasota County

– Over 40 attendees

– CEUs Available

RECENT EVENTS

Pinellas County Mosquito Control and Vegetation Management Staff

• Provided hands-on learning opportunities with equipment

• Overview of successes with air potato beetle

Workshop

Sarasota County Staff

• Discussed timing and effects of herbicides on bees, butterflies, etc.

UPCOMING EVENTS

Grass Identification Workshop – Manatee County

• November 10th

• Gregg Walker and Kim Gulledge teaching– Little Manatee River State

Park

– Sold out in less than 24 hours

– Discussing another or larger workshop at October 3rd

subcommittee meeting

UPCOMING EVENTS

Presentation – November 6th

• Sweetwater Organic Community Farm– New audience

– Focus on costs of invasive pests in an agricultural setting and natural controls

– Any good resources?

September Shout Outs

• Heartland – CISMA Steering CommitteeeMeeting 9/8/2016

• NC – Outreach Presentation 9/12/2016

• FISP– 2016 SeptmeberMeeting 9/12-13/2016

• FISP – Outreach Presentation to the UF/IFAS CEDs 9/19/2016

• Heartland –Aquatics Workshop 9/22/2016

• Big Scrub –National Public Lands Day workday 9/24/2016

CISMA Calendars

HalloWeed Count

• Third Annual Fall HalloWeed Count– October 22, 2016 through November 6, 2016– Three Weekends. Two Weeks.– The goal is to collect more credible invasive plant

observation data into EDDMapS (i.e. invasive plant occurrence recorded and verified as correct).

Time to start planning for the 10th Annual FLEPPC CISMA Session!

It’ll be hard but let’s make it the best CISMA Session to date!

Accepting Suggestions Now

FLEPPC 2017

New Reporting Method

–Google Form!• To be emailed & embedded on FISP Success Stories

page.

• Automatically fills a spreadsheet!

• So easy it can be done while talking on the phone ;-)

• Friday is the last day to get your information included in the quarterly eNewsletter!

• National Invasive Species Awareness Week

Save the Date: February 25, 2017 – March 5, 2017

So many event options to choose from!

Workshops

Webinars

Walkabouts, Oh My!

NISAW 2017

Next Month’s Call

– October 26, 2016

• What do you do after you kill the weeds? – Nancy Bissett

• CISMA Update: Treasure Coast

– Mike Renda

2016-2017 CISMA Call Agenda

Suggestions Needed!

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Florida Cooperative Invasive Species Management Area (CISMA)

Monthly Call– Hosted by the Florida Invasive Species Partnership (FISP)

participation is voluntary, we promise it will only last 1 hour, and we can guarantee that you will enjoy the conversations

4th Wednesday of Every Month at 1:30pmExcept November and

December

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