Weekly Sport : 10th / 11th January, 2015

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BETTING TIPS 10 th - 11 th January 2015

description

Professional football tips and detailed match prediction analysis are published inside of each edition of Weekly Sport betting magazine.

Transcript of Weekly Sport : 10th / 11th January, 2015

BETTINGTIPS

10th - 11th January 2015

Each English Premier League game hastwo pages including: likely startingline-ups and formation, Betting

Forecast (average odds and true odds for1X2, Double Chance and Draw No Betmarkets) and Goals Analysis. The true oddsallows the bettor to determine if a certainbookmaker is giving value or not and theseodds (or greater) should be taken, withlesser odds being left.

The Goals Analysis gives the expected goalsfor each team and these are used with thePoisson Formula (see Glossary) to give achance for each likely correct score, which inturn creates the Over/Under and BothTeams to Score markets.

Odds are given as decimal odds (EuropeanOdds format). These odds are easier for thebettor to understand than fractional odds(UK Odds format), although there is anOdds Ready Reckoner in the back of thispublication.

A Football Betting Magazinewith a betting analysis of eachEnglish Premier League game.

Contents

Sunderland v Liverpool

Burnley v QPR

Chelsea v Newcastle United

Everton v Manchester City

Leicester City v Aston Villa

Swansea v West Ham United

WBA v Hull City

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur

Arsenal v Stoke City

Manchester United v Southampton

Odds Ready Reckoner

Glossary

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

25

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 4.19 3.50 1.89 -5.3%Implied Odds 4.53 3.73 1.96 0.0%True Chance 22.1% 26.8% 51.1% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 2.05 1.37 1.28 0.0%True Chance 48.9% 73.2% 77.9% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 3.32 1.43 0.0%True Chance 30.2% 69.8% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.36 3.78 73.53% 26.47%2.5 Goals 2.08 1.93 48.08% 51.92%3.5 Goals 3.79 1.36 26.39% 73.61%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 7.4% 11.9% 4.8% 7.4% 3.7% 5.9% 1.2% 2.0%Away 7.4% 11.9% 4.8% 11.9% 9.5% 9.5% 5.1% 5.1%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 13.46 8.41 21.04 13.46 26.93 16.83 80.78 50.49Away 13.46 8.41 21.04 8.41 10.52 10.52 19.72 19.72

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 1.99 2.01True Chance 50.25% 49.75%

Sunderland v Liverpool Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Saturday 10th March, 12:45pm

Mignolet

Sakho

Markovic

Lucas

Coutinho

Moreno

Skrtel

Sterling

HendersonManquillo

Can

Pantilimon

Vergini Van Aanholt

Johnson

O’Shea

Fletcher

Larsson

Cattermole

WickhamGomez

Jones

22.1%

26.8%

51.1%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

7.4%

11.9%

4.8%

7.4%

3.7%

5.9%

1.2%2.0%

7.4%

11.9%

4.8%

11.9%

9.5% 9.5%

5.1% 5.1%

38.46%

61.54%

1.00 1.60

30.2% 69.8%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 1.00Away 1.60Total 2.60 -0.60

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.16 3.33 3.44 -5.4%Implied Odds 2.25 3.54 3.67 0.0%True Chance 44.5% 28.2% 27.3% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 1.37 1.39 1.80 0.0%True Chance 72.7% 71.8% 55.5% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 1.61 2.63 0.0%True Chance 62.0% 38.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.40 3.50 71.43% 28.57%2.5 Goals 2.19 1.84 45.66% 54.34%3.5 Goals 4.13 1.32 24.21% 75.79%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 8.2% 12.6% 4.9% 11.5% 8.0% 8.8% 3.8% 4.1%Away 8.2% 12.6% 4.9% 9.0% 5.0% 7.0% 1.8% 2.5%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 12.18 7.91 20.55 8.70 12.43 11.30 26.64 24.22Away 12.18 7.91 20.55 11.07 20.14 14.38 54.92 39.23

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 1.99 2.01True Chance 50.25% 49.75%

Burnley v QPR Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Saturday 140h March, 3pm

Mee

Jones

Heaton

ShackellDuff

Barnes

Arfield Marney Boyd

Trippier

Ings

Green

Caulker Hill

Barton

Onuoha

HenrtVargas

Isla

Zamora

Fer

Austin

44.5%

28.2%

27.3%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

8.2%

12.6%

4.9%

11.5%

8.0%8.8%

3.8% 4.1%

8.2%

12.6%

4.9%

9.0%

5.0%

7.0%

1.8%2.5%

56.00%

44.00%

1.40 1.10

62.0% 38.0%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 1.40Away 1.10Total 2.50 0.30

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.19 6.80 15.27 -5.3%Implied Odds 1.22 7.73 20.89 0.0%True Chance 82.3% 12.9% 4.8% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 1.05 1.15 5.64 0.0%True Chance 95.2% 87.1% 17.7% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 1.06 18.19 0.0%True Chance 94.5% 5.5% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.21 5.76 82.64% 17.36%2.5 Goals 1.61 2.64 62.11% 37.89%3.5 Goals 2.52 1.66 39.68% 60.32%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 4.1% 6.4% 2.5% 10.6% 13.8% 8.3% 11.9% 7.2%Away 4.1% 6.4% 2.5% 2.4% 0.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.4%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 24.53 15.73 40.32 9.44 7.26 12.10 8.37 13.96Away 24.53 15.73 40.32 40.89 136.29 52.42 681.46 262.10

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 2.40 1.71True Chance 41.67% 58.33%

Chelsea v Newcastle United Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Saturday 10h March, 3pm

Courtois

Terry

Hazard

Cahill

Fabregas Matic

Ivanovic

Oscar

Azpilicueta

Costa

Willian

Krul

Dummett

Gouffran

Coloccini

Colback Haidara

Janmaat

Sissoko

Santon

Armstrong

Ayoze Perez

82.3%

12.9%4.8%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

4.1%

6.4%

2.5%

10.6%

13.8%

8.3%

11.9%

7.2%

4.1%

6.4%

2.5% 2.4%

0.7%1.9%

0.1% 0.4%

81.25%

18.75%

2.60 0.60

94.5% 5.5%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 2.60Away 0.60Total 3.20 2.00

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 4.14 3.61 1.87 -5.3%Implied Odds 4.47 3.86 1.93 0.0%True Chance 22.4% 25.9% 51.7% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 2.07 1.35 1.29 0.0%True Chance 48.3% 74.1% 77.6% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 3.31 1.43 0.0%True Chance 30.2% 69.8% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.25 5.00 80.00% 20.00%2.5 Goals 1.73 2.37 57.80% 42.20%3.5 Goals 2.83 1.55 35.34% 64.66%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 5.0% 10.8% 5.8% 6.0% 3.6% 6.5% 1.4% 2.6%Away 5.0% 10.8% 5.8% 9.0% 8.1% 9.7% 4.8% 5.8%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 20.09 9.30 17.22 16.74 27.90 15.50 69.74 38.75Away 20.09 9.30 17.22 11.16 12.40 10.33 20.66 17.22

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 1.73 2.37True Chance 57.80% 42.20%

Everton v Manchester City Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Saturday 10th March, 3pm

Hart

Managala ClichyDemichelis

Navas NasriFernando

Jovetic

Silva

Fernandinho

Zabaleta

Robles

Jagielka BainesStonesColeman

Mirallax

Barry

Barkley

Lukaku

Besic

Naismith

22.4%

25.9%

51.7%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

5.0%

10.8%

5.8% 6.0%

3.6%

6.5%

1.4%2.6%

5.0%

10.8%

5.8%

9.0%8.1%

9.7%

4.8%5.8%

40.00%

60.00%

1.20 1.80

30.2% 69.8%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 1.20Away 1.80Total 3.00 -0.60

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.16 3.24 3.52 -5.6%Implied Odds 2.25 3.45 3.77 0.0%True Chance 44.4% 29.0% 26.6% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 1.36 1.41 1.80 0.0%True Chance 73.4% 71.0% 55.6% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 1.60 2.67 0.0%True Chance 62.6% 37.4% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.49 3.04 67.11% 32.89%2.5 Goals 2.48 1.68 40.32% 59.68%3.5 Goals 4.98 1.25 20.08% 79.92%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 10.0% 12.9% 4.1% 13.5% 9.4% 8.7% 4.1% 3.9%Away 10.0% 12.9% 4.1% 9.5% 4.5% 6.1% 1.4% 1.9%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 9.97 7.78 24.26 7.39 10.59 11.52 24.32 25.60Away 9.97 7.78 24.26 10.50 22.10 16.37 69.80 51.70

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 2.20 1.83True Chance 45.45% 54.55%

Leicester City v Aston Villa Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Saturday 10th March, 3pm

Hamer

Wasilewski Morgan

Ulloa

HammondJames

Konchesky

Vardy

Nugent

Simpson

Albrighton

Guzan

Okore CissokhoClark

Weimann

CleverleySanchezWestwood

Benteke Agbonlahor

Hutton

44.4%

29.0%

26.6%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

10.0%

12.9%

4.1%

13.5%

9.4%8.7%

4.1% 3.9%

10.0%

12.9%

4.1%

9.5%

4.5%

6.1%

1.4% 1.9%

58.70%

41.30%

1.35 0.95

62.6% 37.4%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 1.35Away 0.95Total 2.30 0.40

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.22 3.34 3.29 -5.4%Implied Odds 2.31 3.55 3.50 0.0%True Chance 43.3% 28.1% 28.6% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 1.40 1.39 1.76 0.0%True Chance 71.4% 71.9% 56.7% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 1.66 2.51 0.0%True Chance 60.2% 39.8% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.33 4.03 75.19% 24.81%2.5 Goals 1.97 2.03 50.76% 49.24%3.5 Goals 3.50 1.40 28.57% 71.43%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 6.7% 12.1% 5.4% 10.1% 7.6% 9.1% 3.8% 4.5%Away 6.7% 12.1% 5.4% 8.1% 4.8% 7.3% 1.9% 2.9%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 14.88 8.27 18.37 9.92 13.23 11.02 26.45 22.04Away 14.88 8.27 18.37 12.40 20.67 13.78 51.67 34.44

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 1.85 2.18True Chance 54.05% 45.95%

Swansea City v West Ham Utd Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Saturday 10th March, 5:30pm

Fabianski

Williams TaylorFernandezRangel

Routledge

Britton Carroll

Gomis

Dyer Sigurdsson

Adrian

Reid CresswellCollins

Downing

Song

Nolan

Jenkinson

Noble

CarrollValencia

43.3%

28.1%

28.6%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

6.7%

12.1%

5.4%

10.1%

7.6%9.1%

3.8%4.5%

6.7%

12.1%

5.4%

8.1%

4.8%

7.3%

1.9%2.9%

55.56%

44.44%

1.50 1.20

60.2% 39.8%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 1.50Away 1.20Total 2.70 0.30

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 2.02 3.27 3.95 -5.4%Implied Odds 2.10 3.47 4.25 0.0%True Chance 47.7% 28.8% 23.5% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 1.31 1.40 1.91 0.0%True Chance 76.5% 71.2% 52.3% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 1.49 3.03 0.0%True Chance 67.0% 33.0% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.49 3.04 67.11% 32.89%2.5 Goals 2.48 1.68 40.32% 59.68%3.5 Goals 4.98 1.25 20.08% 79.92%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 10.0% 12.6% 4.0% 14.0% 9.8% 8.8% 4.6% 4.1%Away 10.0% 12.6% 4.0% 9.0% 4.1% 5.7% 1.2% 1.7%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 9.97 7.92 25.13 7.12 10.18 11.31 21.81 24.23Away 9.97 7.92 25.13 11.08 24.63 17.59 82.09 58.64

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 2.24 1.81True Chance 44.64% 55.36%

WBA v Hull City Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Saturday 10th March, 3pm

McGregor

Davies DawsonChester

JelavicHernandez

MeylerHuddlestone

BradyElmohamady

Livermore

Foster

Lescott Baird

Sessegnon Gardner

McAuley

Morrison

Berahino

Brunt

Wisdom

Dorrans

47.7%

28.8%

23.5%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

10.0%

12.6%

4.0%

14.0%

9.8%8.8%

4.6% 4.1%

10.0%

12.6%

4.0%

9.0%

4.1%

5.7%

1.2% 1.7%

60.87%

39.13%

1.40 0.90

67.0% 33.0%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 1.40Away 0.90Total 2.30 0.50

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 3.47 3.34 2.14 -5.5%Implied Odds 3.71 3.56 2.23 0.0%True Chance 27.0% 28.1% 44.9% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 1.81 1.39 1.37 0.0%True Chance 55.1% 71.9% 73.0% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 2.66 1.60 0.0%True Chance 37.5% 62.5% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.38 3.63 72.46% 27.54%2.5 Goals 2.13 1.88 46.95% 53.05%3.5 Goals 3.95 1.34 25.32% 74.68%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 7.8% 12.5% 5.0% 8.6% 4.7% 6.8% 1.7% 2.5%Away 7.8% 12.5% 5.0% 11.3% 8.2% 9.0% 4.0% 4.4%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 12.81 8.03 20.14 11.64 21.17 14.60 57.73 39.82Away 12.81 8.03 20.14 8.83 12.18 11.08 25.21 22.91

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 1.97 2.03True Chance 50.76% 49.24%

Crystal Palace v Tottenham Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Saturday 10th March, 5:30pm

Lloris

Vertonghen RoseFazio

EriksenTownsend

Kane

Stambouli

Walker

Mason

Chadli

Speroni

Delaney Ward

McArthur

ZahaPuncheon

Ledley

Dann

Bannan

Campbell

Kelly

27.0%

28.1%

44.9%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

7.8%

12.5%

5.0%

8.6%

4.7%

6.8%

1.7%2.5%

7.8%

12.5%

5.0%

11.3%

8.2%9.0%

4.0% 4.4%

43.14%

56.86%

1.10 1.45

37.5% 62.5%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 1.10Away 1.45Total 2.55 -0.35

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.44 4.41 7.37 -5.7%Implied Odds 1.48 4.81 8.57 0.0%True Chance 67.5% 20.8% 11.7% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 1.13 1.26 3.08 0.0%True Chance 88.3% 79.2% 32.5% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 1.17 6.79 0.0%True Chance 85.3% 14.7% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.27 4.70 78.74% 21.26%2.5 Goals 1.80 2.25 55.56% 44.44%3.5 Goals 3.03 1.49 33.00% 67.00%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 5.5% 9.2% 3.9% 11.6% 12.1% 9.7% 8.5% 6.8%Away 5.5% 9.2% 3.9% 4.4% 1.8% 3.7% 0.5% 1.0%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 18.17 10.82 25.76 8.65 8.24 10.30 11.77 14.72Away 18.17 10.82 25.76 22.72 56.79 27.04 212.98 101.42

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 2.08 1.93True Chance 48.08% 51.92%

Arsenal v Stoke City Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Sunday 11th March, 1:30pm

Debuchy

Szczesny

Gibbs

Flamini

Mertesacker

Cazorla

Koscielny

Chamberlaiin

Coquelin

SanchezGiroud

Begovic

Muniesa PietersShawcross

Crouch

Walters

WhelanN’Zonzi

Bojan Arnautovic

Cameron

67.5%

20.8%

11.7%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

5.5%

9.2%

3.9%

11.6% 12.1%

9.7%8.5%

6.8%5.5%

9.2%

3.9% 4.4%

1.8%

3.7%

0.5% 1.0%

72.41%

27.59%

2.10 0.80

85.3% 14.7%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 2.10Away 0.80Total 2.90 1.30

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u pP r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p

1X2 Home Draw Away MarginAverage Odds 1.80 3.61 4.51 -5.4%Implied Odds 1.86 3.86 4.91 0.0%True Chance 53.7% 25.9% 20.4% 0.0%

Double Chance H/D H/A D/A MarginImplied Odds 1.26 1.35 2.16 0.0%True Chance 79.6% 74.1% 46.3% 0.0%

Draw No Bet Home Away MarginImplied Odds 1.38 3.64 0.0%True Chance 72.5% 27.5% 0.0%

Implied Odds True ChanceGoals Over Under Over Under

1.5 Goals 1.36 3.78 73.53% 26.47%2.5 Goals 2.08 1.93 48.08% 51.92%3.5 Goals 3.79 1.36 26.39% 73.61%

True Chance (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 7.4% 11.6% 4.6% 12.3% 10.1% 9.6% 5.6% 5.3%Away 7.4% 11.6% 4.6% 7.1% 3.4% 5.5% 1.1% 1.8%

Implied Odds (according to Poisson Distribution)0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

Home 13.46 8.59 21.92 8.16 9.89 10.41 17.98 18.93Away 13.46 8.59 21.92 14.17 29.84 18.08 94.22 57.10

Both Teams To ScoreYes No

Implied Odds 2.02 1.98True Chance 49.50% 50.50%

Manchester Utd v Saints Betting ForecastAll goal markets (Correct Score, Over/Under, Both Teams to Score) are compiled fromthe Expected Goals and Poisson Formula (see Glossary at back).

The Expected Goals (ExpG) in a match are the predicted amount of goals each teamwill score, on average, against it’s current opposition and is worked out from attackand defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers use for each team. GoalSupremacy is the average margin of victory expected (Team A’s ExpG minus Team B’sExpG).

Implied Odds are the ‘true odds’, the odds that are derived from the ‘true chance’ ofsuccess. These odds will have no bookmaker margin which means that any odds thata bookmaker is giving above the ‘true odds’/implied odds are value (the margin movesin your favour).

Monday 11th March, 4pm

De Gea

Smalling ShawEvans

Herrera

Jones

Carrick

Rooney

Van PersieFalcao

Di Maria

Forster

Alderweireld Bertrand

Schneiderlin Tadic

Fonte

Davis

WanyamaWard-Prowse

Clyne

Pelle

53.7%

25.9%

20.4%

0 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 1 3 - 0 3 - 1

7.4%

11.6%

4.6%

12.3%

10.1% 9.6%

5.6% 5.3%

7.4%

11.6%

4.6%

7.1%

3.4%

5.5%

1.1%1.8%

63.46%

36.54%

1.65 0.95

72.5% 27.5%

H v A

H v A gives the chance of the home teamwinning, the away team winning and thechance of a draw, all located in the outerring. The inner ring shows the ratiobetween home and away - a better wayto compare team strength.

Goals Share is the share of the totalexpected goals in the match. The actualexpected goals (as an average) are givenbelow the doughnut chart and are usedto forecast the correct score market.

ExpG SupremacyHome 1.65Away 0.95Total 2.60 0.70

GoalsShare

Home

Away

Draw

Decimal Fraction ImpliedProbability

1.2 1/5 83.3%1.22 2.9 82.0%1.25 1/4 80.0%1.28 2/7 78.1%1.3 3/10 76.9%1.33 1/3 75.2%1.35 7/20 74.1%1.36 4/11 73.5%1.4 2/5 71.4%1.44 4/9 69.4%1.45 9/20 69.0%1.47 40/85 68.0%1.5 1/2 66.7%1.53 8/15 65.4%1.57 4/7 63.7%1.6 3/5 62.5%1.62 8/13 61.7%1.63 5/8 61.3%1.66 4/6 60.2%1.7 7/10 58.8%1.72 8/11 58.1%1.8 4/5 55.6%1.83 5/6 54.6%1.9 9/10 52.6%1.91 10/11 52.4%1.95 20/21 51.3%2 1/1 50.0%2.05 21/20 48.8%2.1 11/10 47.6%2.2 6/5 45.5%2.25 5/4 44.4%2.3 13/10 43.5%2.38 11/8 42.0%2.4 7/5 41.7%2.5 6/4 40.0%2.6 8/5 38.5%

Decimal Fraction ImpliedProbability

2.63 13/8 38.0%2.7 17/10 37.0%2.75 7/4 36.4%2.8 9/5 35.7%2.88 15/8 34.7%2.9 19/10 34.5%3 2/1 33.3%3.1 21/10 32.3%3.13 85/40 31.9%3.2 11/5 31.3%3.25 9/4 30.8%3.3 23/10 30.3%3.33 100/30 30.0%3.38 95/40 29.6%3.4 12/5 29.4%3.5 5/2 28.6%3.6 13/5 27.8%3.75 11/4 26.7%3.8 14/5 26.3%4 3/1 25.0%4.2 16/5 23.8%4.33 10/3 23.1%4.5 7/2 22.2%4.6 18/5 21.7%5 4/1 20.0%5.5 9/2 18.2%6 5/1 16.7%6.5 11/2 15.4%7 6/1 14.3%7.5 13/2 13.3%8 7/1 12.5%8.5 15/2 11.8%9 8/1 11.1%9.5 17/2 10.5%10 9/1 10.0%11 10/1 9.1%

Odds Ready Reckoner

Example: Decimal odds of 3.10 are equivalent to 2.1/1(written as 21/10 in fractional odds).

decimal odds (3.10) - 1 = fractional odds (2.1/1 or 21/10)

Fractional odds to decimal odds:

(21 ÷ 10) + 1 = 3.1

Now you can convert this to the implied probability:

1 (100%) ÷ 3.1 = 0.3226 (32.26%)

How much will I win?

If you put £10.00 on odds of 8/13 (1.62), you would get£16.20 back including your stake, so a £6.20 profit.

If you put £1.00 on odds of 15/2 (8.5), you would get£8.50 back, so a £7.50 profit.

Staking Strategy

The Odds Ready Reckoner is ideal as a simple butuseful staking tool. If you want to win £100.00 fromeach bet you place, then all you need to do is place thepercentage equivalent. E.G. If a team is 3/1 to win, youplace £25.00 (as the odds represent 25%) and you willget £100.00 back. This is a better way to use yourbetting money as the amount you are risking isproportional to the chance of winning.

Average Odds

The average odds from various bookmakersWorldwide.

Expected/Predicted Goals

A team’s estimated goals that it should score in thegiven game on average.

Implied Odds

An assumed chance, written as odds, that an event hasof happening.

Mean Average

The mean average is the average which we use in basicmaths. It is calculated by dividing the total number ofsomething by how many events. For example, ifChelsea had conceded 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals in theirlast six games, the average goals they have concededis 0.83.

5 (the total goals) divided by 6 (the number ofmatches).

Poisson Distribution

A statistical model that uses the mean to calculate thechance of absolute numbers. For example, ifManchester United’s average goals per game is 2.08(their mean average), then the Poisson formula willcalculate the chance of them scoring 0, 1, 2 and so on.

True Odds/Chance

These are the odds that do not have a bookmaker’smargin applied. After the bookmakers haveincorporated their profit margin into the odds, theyare lower than what the true chance reflects.

Glossary