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Weekly Market Update 1-24-19

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Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregarding individualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301

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Let’stalkaboutEurope.TounderstandEurope’scurrentpredicamentfromafinancialperspective,youfirstneedtounderstandthatEuropeasawholeissocialistinnature.Youwillneverhearadiscussionof“howinvolvedshouldtheGovernmentbeintheeconomy?”inmostofEurope;itisjustassumedthattheGovernmentshouldalwaysbeinvolvedtoasignificantdegree.Thequestioniswhetheritshouldbealot(thepublicsectoraccountsfor30%ofjobsinGermany)oralmostentirely(thepublicsectoraccountsfor56%ofjobsinFrance).Insimpleform,politicsdrivestheeconomyandeverythingelseinEurope.Havingsaidthat,it’salittleknownfactthattheEUbankingsystemnearlycollapsedin2012.Yes,mostpeopleareawarethatEuropefacedacrisisatthattime.Howeverwhatmostpeopledon’trealizeisthatsaidcrisisnearlytookdowntheentire€46trillionEUbankingsystem.Imeantotalsystemiccollapse.Atthattime,EUofficialsimposedbothcapitalandbordercontrols.ThoselookingtocrossfromoneEUnationtoanotherwouldbesearchedforEuros/cash/assets.ConsideringthatopenbordersandthefreeflowofcapitalwerethetwoprimaryreasonswhytheEUwascreatedinthefirstplace,thisshouldgiveyouanideaofhowseriousthingswere.TheonlythingthatheldthismesstogetherwastheECBpromisingtobuyanyandallbondsissuedbybothEUcorporatesandEUsovereigns.AndtheonlyreasontheECBcouldgetawaywiththiswasbecauseitwaspoliticallyacceptableinthatthealternative(anindividualEUmemberleavingtheEUordefaultingonitsdebts)meanthigherinterestrates,whichmeanbankruptcy,whichmeantnomorewelfare/socialprograms/socialistfinancing.Putsimply,whenECBpresidentMarioDraghisaidhe’ddo“whateverittakes”tosavetheEU,hemeantthisliterallyashehadthepoliticalcapitaltodoprettymuchanything.Withthatinmind,considerthatinthelastfouryears,theECB’sbalancesheethasgrowntoover€4.5trillionEuros,orroughly45%oftheEU’sGDP.

Weekly Market Update 1-24-19

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Toputthisintoperspective,despitehavingengagedinQEforyearslongerthantheECB,theFed’sbalancesheetgrewtoonly25%ofUSGDP.InorderfortheFedtohaveengagedinanECB-likebalancesheetexpansion,theFed’sbalancesheetwouldneedtobeintheballparkof$9trillion(largerthantheentireGDPofChina).USvoterswouldberiotinginthestreetslongbeforetheFedcoulddothis.TheECBaccomplishedthisinsanitybybuyingpracticallyeverypieceofdebtissuedbyEUcorporatesorsovereignsoverthelastfouryears.ThefactisthatwithouttheECBbackstoppingtheEUdebtmarketslikethis,debtdeflationwouldhavealreadybrokentheEUbankingsystem.WhichiswhythefactthattheECBendeditsQEprograminDecember…rightasGermanygoesintorecession,isamassiveproblem.ThrowinthefactthatFranceisonthevergeofasocialrevolutionwithoutrightriotsthroughoutthestreetsofParis,aswellastheotherfactthatItalyisrapidlymovingtowardsabankingcrisis,andit’scleartheEUisinserioustrouble.Remember,therealityisthatEuropeannationsareinsolvent.Theonlyreasontheydidn’tdefaultisbecausetheEuropeanBanksthatowntheinsolventEUnations’debts,(andwhichfacetheirownsolvencyissues),werebackstoppedbytheEU/ECB.Thatisnowending.TheECBisnolongeractivelyengaginginQE.Sowe’reabouttofindoutwhatEuropelookslikewithoutdirectinterventioninitsdebtmarkets.ThefactthisishappeningwhenmultipleEUnations(ItalyandFranceinparticular)arefacingpoliticalcrises,opensthedoortoafinancialcrisisintheEUwithinthenextsixmonths.Indeed,theyieldonItaly’s10-yearGovernmentBondhasbrokenaboveitsdowntrend(purpleline)aswellascriticalresistance(redline).Itisstillnowherenearthedreaded7%atwhicha

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nationisconsideredinsolvent,butthepointisthatthe“lid”theECBwaskeepingonEUsovereignyieldsisgone.

ThedebtmarketisnottheonlymarketflashingwarningsignsaboutEurope.TheEurohasbrokencriticalsupport(blueline)andisnowcarvingoutaHeadandShoulderspatternwithadownsideofparitywiththe$USD.

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EUstocksarealsobeginningtoflash“danger.”EuropeanFinancialsETF(EUFN)areinacleardownwardchannel,movingtotendtheirlong-termbullmarkettrendline.

TheGermanETF(EWG)hastakenoutoneofitsbullmarkettrendlinesalready.Onceittakesouttheother,it’scrisistime.

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TheFranceETF(EWQ)isjustafewstepsbehind.

Putsimply,alloftheabovechartsaretellingusthatEuropeisinserioustrouble.WegetadditionalindicationofthisfromthefactthatGold,pricedinEuros,isonthevergeofbreakingouttotheupsideofamassiveSEVEN-yeartriangleformation.

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Gold,isperhapsthesinglebestfinancialbarometerforpoliticalturmoil.TheabovechartistellingusthatEuropeisgoingtobeinserioustroubleshortly.Putsimply,2019mightprovetobetheyearthatwefinallyseetheEUmovebackintocrisis.ThefactitwouldcoincidewithadebtimplosioninChinaonlyfurtheraddstomyconvictionthatasystemiceventwillhappensometimeinthefirstsixmonthsofthisyear.SpeakingonChina,theShanghaistockmarkethasjusttakenoutitsbullmarkettrendlinerunningbackallthewayto…2005.

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Chinaisreadyforthenextlegdown.The$USD(invertedinthebelowchartsowhenthe$USDralliesthebottomlinefalls)suggestswe’regoingto$36shortly.

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ActiontoTake:BuytheUltraShortChinaETF(FXP)IntheUSmarkets,REALsellershaveshownupagainputtingtheupwardsmanipulationatrisk.It’snowabattlebetweensellingpressurefrominstitutionsandinterventionfromthePPT.Asthebelowchartshowsagainstthisbackdropfundamentalshaveworseneddramatically.

h/tAmitNoamTal

EconomicallyspeakingcontractionisunderwayintheUS.Thisisabouttohitthemarketsintheformofadeflationarymove.EverywhereIlookIseesignsofadeflationarycollapse.TheTIP:TLTratioshowsthatthedownturnisnowhere.

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TheratiobetweentheS&P500andJunkBondsisabouttobreakdown…

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…whiletheJunkBond:InvestmentGraderatioisontheledgeofacliff.Oncewebreaksupport,it’sacrashtothelows.

Youcanseewhatthismeansforstocksinthebelowchart.We’retalking2,350ontheS&P500.

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Havingsaidthat,thenextsectortogethithardwillbebasemetals.FreeportMcMoRan(FCX)isgoingtoretestthe2018lows.Ifthatlinedoesn’tholdit’sgoingtothe2016lows.

ActiontoTake:ShortFreeportMcMoRan(FCX).DittoforArcelorMittal(MT)

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ActiontoTake:ShortArcelorMittal(MT)Again,it’stimefordeflationtoreturntothemarkets.Thisfavorsthe$USD,theLongTreasury(TLT)andSHORTINGanyreflationaryplay.Thisconcludesthisweek’sWeeklyMarketUpdate,I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopmentsyou’llnexthearfrommenextThursdayinourlongermonthlyissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Inthemeantime,ifyouarelookingforawaytoplayshort-termmarketmovesortogetintodaytradingforlarger,morerapidgains,Ialsorunaweeklyoptionstradingservicethattypicallyholdspositionsforjust2-3weeksatthemost,andusuallyjustafewdays.It’scalledTheCrisisTraderanditusesoptionstotradehighlypredictablemovesinstocksandETFsfordouble-digitgains.Sinceinception,thisnewsletterhasreturnedaverageannualgainsof41%.Typicallyasubscriptiontothisservicecosts$799.ButI’dliketoinviteanyofyoutojoinatadiscountedrateof$499(35%offtheusualmarketprice).Youcantryitfor60days.Ifyoufindit’snotwhatyou’relookingfor,youcanemailusat

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support@phoenixcapitalresearch.comandwe’llissueafullrefundnoquestionsasked.Totakeouta60day$499trialsubscriptiontoTheCrisisTraderusethelinkbelow.https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/tctrenewal499.htmlUntilThursday…

GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

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OPEN POSITIONS

Pricesasof1/24/19atmarket’sclose.*Gainsincludedividends

BONDS PORTFOLIO

PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO

Position Symbol Buy Date Buy Price

Current Price

Change From Last Week

Total Return*

LongTreasuryETF TLT 6/27/18 $122.11 $121.11 0% 2%

Position Symbol Buy Date Buy Price

Current Price

Change From Last Week

Total Return*

Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,280.00 -1% 14%Silver 3/17/10 $16.23 $15.32 -2% -6%FirstMajesticSilver AG 5/12/17 $7.43 $5.26 0% -29%Iamgold IAG 9/28/17 $6.40 $2.89 -2% -55%SilverMiningETF SIL 10/4/17 $32.51 $24.52 -2% -25%SilverMiningJuniorsETF SILJ 10/4/17 $11.83 $8.01 -1% -32%GoldMiningETF GDX 6/6/18 $22.58 $20.50 -1% -9%GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 6/6/18 $32.99 $29.56 -2% -10% HeclaMining HCLA 7/23/18 $3.39 $2.36 -3% -30%

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Pricesasof1/24/19atmarket’sclose.*Gainsincludedividends

Bear Market Portfolio

Position Symbol Buy Date Buy Price

Current Price

Change From Last Week

Total Return*

EmergingMarketsETF(SHORT) EEM 12/6/18 $40.64 $41.65 0% -2% RioTinto(SHORT) RIO 12/6/18 $46.38 $49.87 3% -8% Amazon(SHORT) AMZN 1/3/19 $1,500.28 $1,654.93 3% -8% Alphabet(SHORT) GOOG 1/3/19 $1,016.06 $1,073.90 2% -3% UltraShortOilETF SCO 1/3/19 $27.63 $21.47 -3% -22% JapanETF(SHORT) EWJ 1/3/19 $50.73 $53.34 1% -4% UltraShortRussell2000 TWM 1/3/19 $21.11 $17.33 0% -16% RetailETF XRT 1/10/19 $43.60 $43.96 0% -1% JPMorgan JPM 1/10/19 $100.39 $102.74 0% -3% UltraShortChinaETF FXP 1/24/19 $67.81 NEW BUY! FreeportMcMoRan FCX 1/24/19 $10.70 NEW SHORT ArcelorMittal MT 1/24/19 $21.43 NEW SHORT

Position Symbol Buy Date

Buy Price

Current Price

Change From Last Week

Total Return*

USDollarETF UUP 11/8/18 $25.75 $25.65 1% 0%

CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO

MACRO TREND PORTFOLIO

Position Symbol Buy Date Buy Price

Current Price

Change From Last Week

Total Return*

CorsaCoal CRSXF 12/21/17 $1.20 $0.55 -2% -54%UraniumETF URA 1/17/18 $14.93 $12.28 0% -16%