Weekly Market Review - Mashreq · Weekly Market Review May 3, 2015 – May 9, 2015 May 10, 2015 ....

Weekly Market Review May 3, 2015 – May 9, 2015

May 10, 2015

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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US nonfarm payrolls gained 223,000 in Apr after rising 85,000 in Mar. Jobless rate fell to 5.4%, lowest since May ’08

Private jobs increased 169,000 in Apr, below expectations while nonfarm productivity fell 1.9% in 1Q2015

Factory goods orders rebounded, rising 2.1% in Mar after falling 0.1% in Feb

The ISM services sector index rose to 57.8 in Apr from 56.5 in Mar due to a surge in business activity

Trade deficit expanded by 43.1% in Mar to reach $51.4bn as imports gained more than exports

European Commission raised euro zone growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.3% in 2015 due to cheap oil, weak euro and stable global growth. Consumer prices forecasted to expand 0.1% in 2015 vs. 0.1% fall estimated earlier

Markit’s Euro zone final composite PMI stood at 53.9 in April, signaling business activity expanded

Euro zone retail sales fell 0.8% MoM in Mar for the 1st time since Sep ‘14, However, it was up 1.6% YoY

German exports rose 1.2% MoM in Mar while imports climbed by 2.4%. However, industrial output dipped by 0.5%

British Prime Minister David Cameron won with clear majority. His party held 331 seats in the 650-seat house

French industrial output advanced 1.4% in 1Q2015 despite dipping 0.3% MoM in Mar, raising hopes of recovery

Greece defied demands of its creditors to cut pensions or ease layoffs as it seeks bailout funds from EU/IMF

Greek consumer prices fell 2.1% YoY in Apr with the annual pace of deflation unchanged from Mar

China’s exports contracted 6.4% YoY in Apr while imports tumbled 16.2%, fueling expectations of more stimulus

HSBC/Markit China manufacturing PMI fell to 48.9 in Apr from 49.6 in Mar as new orders shrank

Asian Development Bank boosted its development fund by 50% to $20bn as it faces competition from China’s AIIB

HSBC India service PMI fell to 52.4 in Apr vs. 53 in Mar as services sector lose momentum on soft domestic demand

Australia’s central bank trimmed 2015 growth forecast to 2.5% vs. 2.25-3.25% earlier, inflation expected at 2.5%

Russia HSBC PMI stood at 48.9 in Apr as manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth consecutive month

HSBC/Markit UAE PMI improved to 56.8 in Apr from 56.3 in Mar, Saudi PMI eased to 58.3 in Apr from 60.1 in Mar

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD %

S&P 500 2,116.10 7.81 0.37 2.78

DJI 18,191.11 167.05 0.93 2.06

Nasdaq Comp 5,003.55 -1.84 -0.04 5.65

Euro Stoxx 600 400.16 5.50 1.39 16.82

FTSE 100 7,046.82 60.87 0.87 7.32

Dax 11,709.73 255.35 2.23 19.42

CAC 40 5,090.39 43.90 0.87 19.14

Nikkei 225 19,379.19 -152.44 -0.78 11.05

Hang Seng 27,577.34 -555.66 -1.98 16.83

Brazil - Bovespa 57,149.33 919.95 1.64 14.28

Russia - Micex 1,708.52 20.18 1.20 22.33

BSE Sensex 27,105.39 94.08 0.35 -1.43

Shanghai Comp 4,205.92 -235.74 -5.31 30.03


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Emaar Properties’ 1Q2015 net profit rose 7.2% YoY to AED1.03bn. Revenue jumped 25% YoY to AED3.0bn

Abu Dhabi National Hotels reported a drop of 42% YoY in its 1Q2015 net income to AED88.7mn

Dubai-based Palma Development plans an AED1.5bn seafront residential project on Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah

Tabreed seeks shareholders’ nod to buy back 25% of mandatory convertible bonds worth AED1bn

Emirates Airline’s bottom-line climbed to AED4.56bn in FY2014-15 from AED3.25bn in FY2013-14 on lower oil prices

Emaar Properties’ Egyptian unit, Emaar Misr for Development targets to raise $372mn through its IPO

Drake & Scull Engineering secured an AED290mn MEP contract for a mixed-used development project in Dubai

Abu Dhabi state-controlled venture, Dolphin Energy is seeking to raise a $1bn incremental loan

National Bank of Abu Dhabi partially repurchased and canceled AED125mn of outstanding convertible notes

Shuaa Capital recorded a net loss of AED1.6mn in 1Q2015 vs. a net profit of AED8.2mn in 1Q2014

Saudi Airlines Catering Co. will develop a SAR200mn residential project in Dahban at Jeddah province; BoD proposes SAR143.5mn dividend for 1Q2015

Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari Sons bagged SAR119mn contract for waste collection & disposal in Jazan

National Shipping Co. of Saudi Arabia considers a debut Sukuk issue worth up to SR3.9bn in 2Q2015

Kuwait’s Alargan Intnl. Real Estate Co. earned SAR317.3mn net profit from stake sale in a partner company in Saudi

International Financial Advisors’ BoD recommended writing-off KD65.5mn accumulated losses for FY2014

Oman’s central bank approved Bank Dhofar’s plan to issue a capital-boosting bond of up to $300mn

Galfar Engineering & Contracting won two contracts worth a cumulative value of OMR142.72mn

Doha Bank plans to infuse around $250mn in its Indian operations over 3 years to support the $2.5bn loan book

Bahrain-based Gulf Finance House said it will buy a mall in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia for SAR180mn

Aluminium Bahrain’s net income surged by 117.5% YoY to BHD37.2mn in 1Q2015


Dubai 4,103.49 -125.55 -2.97 8.73

Abu Dhabi 4,554.88 -92.24 -1.98 0.57

Saudi Tadawul 9,717.90 -116.59 -1.19 16.62

Qatar Index 12,282.17 117.69 0.97 -0.03

Kuwait Index 6,396.96 19.96 0.31 -2.12

Oman MSM 30 6,317.66 -4.84 -0.08 -0.40

Bahrain All Share 1,390.26 -0.36 -0.03 -2.55

Egypt EGX 30 8,742.42 70.13 0.81 -2.06

Istanbul 100 Index 84,059.89 112.85 0.13 -1.94


DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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US dollar recovered from lows reached during the week against euro and closed flat after a monthly US jobs report pointed to steady labor-market gains, likely anchoring investors’ predictions of higher borrowing costs in 2015

The British Pound appreciated 2.0% in the week to 1.5455 US dollars as a surprising UK General Election result removed a great deal of political uncertainty and encouraged traders to shed short positions

Brazil’s real climbed 1.3% in the week to 2.9746 per dollar as the nation’s lower house approved reductions in labor benefits, aiding the government efforts to shore up public accounts and preserve Brazil’s investment grade status

Canadian dollar advanced 0.7% in the week to 1.2071 per dollar as a gain in full-time employment in April partially offset the biggest drop in part-time jobs in 4 years, adding to optimism the economy is recovering from a plunge in oil prices, its largest export. Unemployment rate held at 6.8% for the third straight month

Malaysia’s ringgit snapped a six-week gain and dropped 0.7% in the week to 3.5985 per US dollar as a drop in crude prices raised concern government finances in the oil-exporting nation will deteriorate

Indonesian rupiah weakened 1.3% in the week to 13,121 per dollar after Indonesian Vice President Jusuf Kalla said on May 7 the central bank will gradually cut borrowing costs, while Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said that he would keep “a tight monetary stance,” to anchor inflation expectations


EUR/USD 1.1199 0.0000 0.00 -7.43

GBP/USD 1.5455 0.0307 2.03 -0.78

AUD/USD 0.7932 0.0081 1.03 -2.97

USD/JPY 119.7600 -0.3900 -0.32 -0.02

USD/CHF 0.9303 -0.0021 -0.23 -6.44

USD/CAD 1.2071 -0.0088 -0.72 3.87

USD/BRl 2.9746 -0.0399 -1.32 11.93

USD/RUB 50.9135 -1.0015 -1.93 -16.17

USD/INR 63.9375 0.5150 0.81 1.42

USD/CNY 6.2093 0.0061 0.10 0.06

DXY Index 94.7940 -0.5030 -0.53 5.01

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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Brent crude posted its first weekly loss of 1.6% in a month as the market fretted again about global oversupply while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 0.4% in the week, helped by jobs growth data and the forming of the first storm of the hurricane season

Gold spot prices gained 0.8% in the week after some investors wagered that the tepid pace of US hiring would discourage the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates until later this year

Sugar futures rose 3.95% in the week on short-covering. Traders also focused on rains during the early period of the cane crush in top grower Brazil, which encouraged mills to raise cane allocations to ethanol biofuel instead of sugar

Palm oil futures advanced 3.7% in the week as Malaysian ringgit weakened against the dollar, tracking lower crude prices. The weaker Malaysian currency stoked buying interest from overseas palm investors

Zinc futures moved up 0.4% in the week on the London Metal Exchange (LME) as investors bet that the shutdown of big mines such as Lisheen in Ireland and Century in Australia will lead to a zinc deficit

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) slid 0.35% in the week, weighed down by concerns of bumper crop as good weather across the US Midwest allowed farmers to make rapid progress in planting this year’s crop


Gold spot 1,188.38 9.79 0.83 0.30

Silver spot 16.47 0.31 1.89 4.87

Copper-CMX 292.05 -0.90 -0.31 3.36

Brent - ICE 65.39 -1.07 -1.61 6.83

WTI - Nymex 59.39 0.24 0.41 6.72

S&P GSCI Spot Index

444.31 0.48 0.11 6.26

Baltic Dry Index 574.00 -13.00 -2.21 -26.60

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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US 10-year yield edged up 3.4 bps in the week to 2.15% as the Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen said yields could see a sharp jump when officials raise the benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2006

German government bonds declined for a third week, sending 10-year yield 17.6 bps higher to 0.55%, deepening a rout in Europe’s debt markets as investors turned against record-low and negative yields

Australia's central bank cut interest rates on May 5 for the second time in 2015 by a quarter to 2%, seeking to support the economy against sliding

Norway's Norges Bank held its main interest rate at where it has been since Dec 2014 i.e. 1.25% on May 7. However, the central bank signaled that the rates may be lowered in Jun 2015 to counter the effects of a slowing economy and a rising currency while keeping inflation close to a 2.5% target

China’s seven-day repo rate dropped for a 10th week by 9 bps to 2.28%, the longest run since 2009, as monetary easing leaves banks flush with cash at a time of weakening economic growth

India’s 10-year sovereign bonds completed their biggest weekly decline since Dec 2014, resulting in yield climbing by 12 bps to 7.98% as overseas investors withdrew $494mn from local government and corporate notes on May 7, the biggest single-day sale since January 2014. Withdrawals for the week totaled $938mn


USD-1w Libor 0.15 0.0010 0.68 10.00

USD-3m Libor 0.28 -0.0009 -0.32 9.10

USD-6m Libor 0.41 0.0039 0.94 14.32

USD-10yr 2.15 0.0343 1.62 -1.08

AED-1m EIBOR 0.41 0.0000 0.00 3.62

AED-3m EIBOR 0.74 0.0000 0.00 9.07

AED-12m EIBOR 1.07 0.0000 0.00 5.06

UK-10yr 1.88 0.0340 1.85 6.83

Japan-10yr 0.42 0.0580 16.25 28.88

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 China -5.31% -5.40%

2 Dubai−UAE -2.97% -2.97%

3 Estonia -2.73% -2.73%

4 Sweden -2.48% -0.80%

5 Colombia -2.08% -0.57%

6 Hong Kong -1.98% -1.99%

7 Abu Dhabi−UAE -1.98% -1.98%

8 South Korea -1.96% -2.94%

9 Cyprus -1.90% -1.90%

10 Croatia -1.48% -1.54%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Botswana 3.05% 3.46%

2 Russia 2.93% 2.93%

3 Ireland 2.68% 2.68%

4 Germany 2.23% 2.23%

5 Greece 1.95% 1.95%

6 Indonesia 1.88% 0.54%

7 Serbia 1.71% 1.12%

8 Brazil 1.64% 3.00%

9 Chile 1.54% 2.75%

10 Norway 1.47% 3.17%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Venezuela 47.61% 47.61%

2 Argentina 42.27% 34.89%

3 Hungary 36.73% 32.52%

4 Russia 34.00% 34.00%

5 China 30.03% 29.95%

6 Denmark 29.46% 19.60%

7 Jamaica 27.59% 26.54%

8 Portugal 27.32% 17.86%

9 Italy 22.62% 13.51%

10 Austria 21.08% 12.08%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Mongolia -13.28% -15.89%

2 Peru -9.65% -14.38%

3 Colombia -9.63% -8.81%

4 Kazakhstan -9.59% -11.34%

5 Cyprus -8.24% -15.06%

6 Mauritius -5.69% -14.32%

7 Bulgaria -4.23% -11.34%

8 Zambia -2.55% -15.43%

9 Bahrain -2.55% -2.56%

10 Kuwait -2.12% -4.98%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Lumber -8.47%

2 Rough Rice -4.47%

3 Lead -3.32%

4 Gasoline -2.62%

5 Aluminium -1.87%

6 Brent Crude -1.61%

7 Heat Oil -1.44%

8 Steel Rebar -1.41%

9 Zinc -1.17%

10 Cotton -1.03%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Lean Hogs 6.38%

2 Soybean Oil 4.33%

3 Sugar 3.95%

4 Natural Gas 3.75%

5 Palm Oil 3.67%

6 Orange Juice 3.44%

7 Ethanol 3.24%

8 Palladium 3.22%

9 Nickel 2.51%

10 Silver 1.89%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Gasoline 38.77%

2 Gasoil 16.30%

3 Lead 9.80%

4 Cotton 9.77%

5 Rubber 9.00%

6 Zinc 8.13%

7 Rubber 9.00%

8 Brent Crude 6.83%

9 WTI Crude 6.72%

10 Silver 4.87%

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Lumber -29.15%

2 Coffee -20.23%

3 Wheat -19.20%

4 Tin -18.04%

5 Rough Rice -17.28%

6 Steel Rebar -16.69%

7 Natural Gas -15.72%

8 Orange Juice -15.10%

9 Bean Meal -13.55%

10 Corn -9.70%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

Weekly Market Review - Mashreq · Weekly Market Review May 3, 2015 – May 9, 2015 May 10, 2015 ....

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