Weekly market review: June 7, 2013

4
International Global equity markets fell further amidst lingering concerns about the timing of the reduction in asset purchases, but markets recovered some ground towards the end of the week.The latter helped the US markets close with weekly gains, but the MSCI ACWorld Index finished 0.43% lower, led by declines in Asia-Pacific and Emerging Markets. Bond yields rose from the lows witnessed earlier in the week in reaction to the strong US payroll data. Commodity prices rebounded and the Reuters Jefferies CRB Index closed up 2.07%. Ongoing unrest in South Africa’s mining industry pushed up platinum prices, while better than expected US jobs data boosted crude oil prices. In currency markets, the sterling benefitted from signs the UK economy was recovering and the JapaneseYen strengthened. Asia-Pacific: A stronger yen and profit booking led Japanese equities to correct sharply. Other regional equity markets as well as currencies came under pressure on increased concerns about foreign flows once global liquidity starts to reduce.Japan’s Prime Minister unveiled the strategy to boost growth including efforts to boosting corporate activity and undertake structural reforms. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund has announced its intention to reduce exposure to local bonds (60% from 67%) and increase equity allocation.Weak economic data further added pressure on regional markets. HSBC PMI readings for many of Asian economies showed growth is moderating. Australia’s Q1 GDP growth came at 2.2%qoq,slightly lower than 2.3% recorded Europe/Middle East: Better manufacturing data out of US and select Europe countries helped European equities pare losses towards the close of week.European manufacturing PMIs suggested the pace of contraction in the region’s industry eased last month and German industrial output expanded by 1.8%mom in April. UK’s trade deficit narrowed in April and the manufacturing and services PMIs were strong. Bank of England maintained status quo on policy while the Polish central bank cut key policy rate by 25 bps to 2.75% and also intervened in the currency markets to support zloty.Ukraine’s central bank cut interest rates by 50 bps to 7%. Turkish equity markets and currency partially recouped losses at close of week after the Prime Minister agreed to talks with protestors. On the M&A front, SevernTrent rejected a revised takeover offer of about $8.2 bln from a consortium of investors comprising Kuwait sovereign wealth fund and Borealis Infrastructure. Americas: Positive economic data helped US equity indices bounce back towards the close of week, but markets in Canada, Brazil and Mexico closed with losses. Non-farm payrolls expanded by 175,000, more than market estimates, and the unemployment rate inched up to 7.6%.The May ISM non-manufacturing index increased marginally, while manufacturing index slid and the US trade deficit widened by 8.5% to $40.3 bln reflecting sharp rise in imports. Canada also reported large gains in payrolls (95,000) and the unemployment rate dipped to 7.1% from 7.2%.Banco de Mexico retained benchmark policy rate at 4%.With a view to stem the sharp depreciation in real and thereby also reduce inflationary pressures, Brazil abolished its tax on foreign investment in bonds, which was introduced in 2010.S&P cut outlook on Brazil’s sovereign rating to negative,citing slow economic growth and rising fiscal burden. Market Review WEEK ENDED JUNE 07, 2013

description

 

Transcript of Weekly market review: June 7, 2013

Page 1: Weekly market review: June 7, 2013

International

Global equity markets fell further amidst lingering concerns about the timing of the reduction in assetpurchases, but markets recovered some ground towards the end of the week. The latter helped the USmarkets close with weekly gains, but the MSCI AC World Index finished 0.43% lower, led by declines inAsia-Pacific and Emerging Markets. Bond yields rose from the lows witnessed earlier in the week inreaction to the strong US payroll data. Commodity prices rebounded and the Reuters Jefferies CRB Indexclosed up 2.07%. Ongoing unrest in South Africa’s mining industry pushed up platinum prices, while betterthan expected US jobs data boosted crude oil prices. In currency markets, the sterling benefitted from signsthe UK economy was recovering and the Japanese Yen strengthened.

• Asia-Pacific: A stronger yen and profit booking led Japanese equities to correct sharply. Other regionalequity markets as well as currencies came under pressure on increased concerns about foreign flows onceglobal liquidity starts to reduce. Japan’s Prime Minister unveiled the strategy to boost growth including effortsto boosting corporate activity and undertake structural reforms. Japan’s Government Pension InvestmentFund has announced its intention to reduce exposure to local bonds (60% from 67%) and increase equityallocation.Weak economic data further added pressure on regional markets. HSBC PMI readings for many ofAsian economies showed growth is moderating. Australia’s Q1 GDP growth came at 2.2%qoq, slightly lowerthan 2.3% recorded

• Europe/Middle East: Better manufacturing data out of US and select Europe countries helpedEuropean equities pare losses towards the close of week. European manufacturing PMIs suggested the paceof contraction in the region’s industry eased last month and German industrial output expanded by1.8%mom in April. UK’s trade deficit narrowed in April and the manufacturing and services PMIs werestrong. Bank of England maintained status quo on policy while the Polish central bank cut key policy rateby 25 bps to 2.75% and also intervened in the currency markets to support zloty. Ukraine’s central bankcut interest rates by 50 bps to 7%. Turkish equity markets and currency partially recouped losses at closeof week after the Prime Minister agreed to talks with protestors. On the M&A front, SevernTrent rejecteda revised takeover offer of about $8.2 bln from a consortium of investors comprising Kuwait sovereignwealth fund and Borealis Infrastructure.

• Americas: Positive economic data helped US equity indices bounce back towards the close of week,but markets in Canada, Brazil and Mexico closed with losses. Non-farm payrolls expanded by175,000, more than market estimates, and the unemployment rate inched up to 7.6%.The May ISMnon-manufacturing index increased marginally, while manufacturing index slid and the US tradedeficit widened by 8.5% to $40.3 bln reflecting sharp rise in imports. Canada also reported largegains in payrolls (95,000) and the unemployment rate dipped to 7.1% from 7.2%. Banco de Mexicoretained benchmark policy rate at 4%.With a view to stem the sharp depreciation in real and therebyalso reduce inflationary pressures, Brazil abolished its tax on foreign investment in bonds, which wasintroduced in 2010. S&P cut outlook on Brazil’s sovereign rating to negative, citing slow economicgrowth and rising fiscal burden.

Market ReviewWEEK ENDED JUNE 07, 2013

Page 2: Weekly market review: June 7, 2013

Weekly Weeklychange (%) change (%)

MSCI AC World Index -0.43 Xetra DAX -1.13

FTSE Eurotop 100 -1.72 CAC 40 -1.92

MSCI AC Asia Pacific -3.31 FTSE 100 -2.60

Dow Jones 0.88 Hang Seng -3.65

Nasdaq 0.39 Nikkei -6.51

S&P 500 0.78 KOSPI -3.86

India - Equity

Frontline equity indices extended declines this week on the back of weak domestic economic data and

cautious global sentiment. Mid and small cap stocks fared better than large caps. Except for technology

and healthcare all sectoral indices closed in the red. FII flows were muted this week - $108 mln in the

first four trading days.

• Macro/Outlook: India’s PMI data released this week showed divergent trends across the

manufacturing and services sector. The services PMI jumped up from 50.7 last month to 53.6.

Expansion in the service sector, which accounts for about 60% of India’s GDP, was led mainly by new

orders. In contrast, India’s manufacturing sector PMI dipped to 50.1 from 51.0 in April. A similar

trend is seen across many EM/Asian countries this month.

The ongoing debate about Fed stimulus has raised concerns about reversal in liquidity from global

markets and EM currencies including the Indian rupee have witnessed sharp declines.The rupee’s fall

has been exacerbated by India’s high current account deficit, though the country continues to see

strong foreign capital flows – FII flows in equity and debt markets aggregated over $19 bln for

2013YTD. The government and RBI have taken varied steps to discourage household demand for

gold, one of the key drivers of India’s widening current account deficit, as well as announced measures

to streamline FII investment norms.This week, the government hiked gold import duty by 2% to 6%

and RBI extended gold import restrictions to NBFCs and star houses, earlier applicable to banks.We

believe the government also needs to address domestic supply constraints to ease current account

pressures - for example, in the area of energy by augmenting domestic coal supply.

While currency depreciation typically is seen to boost export competitiveness, so far the rupee

declines seen since 2008 seem to have had limited impact on India’s exports. It will need to be seen

if this changes in coming quarters with a relatively improved global growth environment and domestic

policy backdrop.

Page 3: Weekly market review: June 7, 2013

Weekly change (%)

S&P BSE Sensex -1.68

CNX Nifty -1.75

CNX 500 -1.29

CNX Midcap -0.22

S&P BSE Smallcap 0.32

India - Debt

Indian bond prices gained this week and yields eased as the RBI provided liquidity through OMOpurchase auctions and on reports suggesting the government is looking to raise the cap on FII investmentsby $5 bln.

RBI successfully auctioned its first in the series of new inflation-linked bonds this week – the Rs. 1,000crore issue was oversubscribed close to 4.5 times and the real yield was set at 1.44% above the WPI.

• Yield movements: The yield curve steepened this week with yields at the shorter end of the curvewitnessing a sharper decline than longer end of the curve.Yields on both the 10-year and 5-year papersdecreased by 5 bps, while those on the 1-year paper decreased 8 bps.Yield on the 30 year Gilts stood 1bps lower than last week levels.

• Liquidity/borrowings: OMO purchase auctions this week helped the liquidity situation improve.Repos averaged about Rs. 61,320 crore as against Rs. 88,966 crore last week. However, overnight callmoney rates closed slightly higher at 7.40% compared to 7.00% last week. Scheduled auctions in fourGOI (excluding inflation indexed bonds) worth Rs. 14,000 crore witnessed good response and there wasno devolvement on primary dealers.

• Forex: Strong dollar demand and FII outflows from Indian debt markets led the Indian rupee to weakenfurther this week.The currency breached the Rs.57/$ mark and closed down 1% against the US dollar.Forex reserves as of May 31, stood at $288 bln, $4 bln less than previous week levels.

% Contribution to YoY Credit Growth

2.0%2.0%2.3%2.3%2.2%2.2%2.8%2.4%2.8%3.0%2.3%3.1%

3.3%3.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6%

2.7%

5.0%4.0%

3.6% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 4.6% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.2%3.6%

2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7%

1.7%

1.0%0.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8%

2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6%2.8%

2.4% 2.0% 2.0%1.0%

1.3%

2.2%

2.4%

1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1%1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%

0.8%

0.7% 1.2% 0.9%0.9%

1.3%

5.6%3.3%

4.8%

4.2% 4.9% 5.2% 5.3%6.0%

4.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.3%

4.5%

3.3%3.9% 4.0%

3.5%

2.9%2.9%3.0%4.1%4.7%2.5%

3.8%

5.4%

2.2%

2.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep

-11

Dec

-11

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13

Feb-

13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

Infrastructure Personal Loans ServicesAgri & Allied Activities SME Other Large IndustriesIndustries excl. Infra

Page 4: Weekly market review: June 7, 2013

• Credit Growth: As per credit data available for April 2013, non-food credit growth picked up in April

led by rise in loans mainly to infrastructure, small-medium enterprises and agriculture segments.

Personal loans growth also accelerated during the month. Higher credit offtake towards infrastructure

activity is a positive and one will need to see if this trend sustains, to get a cue into investment cycle

trends.

07.06.2013 31.05.2013

Exchange rate (Rs./$) 57.06 56.50

Average repos (Rs. Cr) 61,320 88,966

1-yr gilt yield (%) 7.31 7.39

5-yr gilt yield (%) 7.32 7.37

10-yr gilt yield (%) 7.36 7.41

Source: Reuters, CCIL.

The information contained in this commentary is not a complete presentation of every material fact regarding any industry, security or the fund andis neither an offer for units nor an invitation to invest.This communication is meant for use by the recipient and not for circulation/reproductionwithout prior approval.The views expressed by the portfolio managers are based on current market conditions and information available to themand do not constitute investment advice.

Risk Factors:All investments in mutual funds and securities are subject to market risks and the NAVs of the schemes may go up or down dependingupon the factors and forces affecting the securities market.The past performance of the mutual funds managed by the Franklin Templeton Groupand its affiliates is not necessarily indicative of future performance of the schemes. Please refer to the Scheme Information Documentcarefully before investing. Statutory Details: Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund in India has been set up as a trust by Templeton InternationalInc. (liability restricted to the seed corpus of Rs.1 lac) with Franklin Templeton Trustee Services Pvt. Ltd. as the trustee (Trustee under the IndianTrust Act 1882) and with Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd. as the Investment Manager.

Copyright © 2013 Franklin Templeton Investments.All rights reserved