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weekly football tip sheet

ISSUE 5NFL Week 4

College Football Week 5

VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

Welcome to Week 5 of the 2016-17 Vegas Insider Football Weekly. We appreciate your continued support and hope that you are enjoying the coverage so far this season. This week brings the norm…A WHOLE SLATE of college & pro football coverage for you to digest as you get ready for the first October weekend of football! Of course, at Vegas Insider, we are “The Global Leader in Sports Gaming Information”, so everything we cover in this weekly tipsheet attacks football from a betting perspective.

This past week’s issue was another good one for our human handicappers, as they combined to go 6-3 ATS in BOTH college and pro football Best Bets. So far for the season, they are 39-23-1 ATS on BB’s, good for 16 games over .500 and 62.9%. In college football, VI Jim stayed hot, hitting all three of his featured plays to move to 8-3-1 ATS on the season. In the pro’s VI Doug maintained his torrid pace by hitting two of three games, and is now 8-1 ATS. For those of you following all of his plays, not just the Best Bets, I’m sure you were thrilled with his 8-2 performance. Turn to the selections pages in this issue to see which team all three of our experts like this weekend.

Also in this week’s issue, we will cover the college week 5 and NFL week 4 action. We offer up a feature NFL piece that looks at the recent history of winless & undefeated teams at this point in the season. We also continue our Bye Week Trends series with a look at this week’s applicable angles. A rarity, we also have a feature article in college football taking a look at handicapping angles regarding teams that have put together extreme statistics by this point in the season in recent years. Louisville, Miami FL, and Texas State are a few 2016 teams highlighted in this piece. We also offer a handy chart listing some key differential stats already accumulated in this young season, and the FBS national ranking in those stats for each team. You’ll find quite a few surprises on that list, noteworthy that Ohio State seems to be the top team at this point.

We thank you for reading the Vegas Insider Football Weekly and welcome you to become a regular subscriber by following any of the appropriately tagged ads on our web property, VegasInsider.com. While there, of course, take advantage of everything we have to offer, including daily free and premium picks, stats, editorial analysis, and more.

So enjoy this week’s publication and as always, we welcome your feedback.

Best of luck on your plays!

Vegas Insider Staff

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule .........................................................................................2

NFL VI Picks ......................................................................................................3

NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown .........................................................4

NFL Top Weekly Trends ...................................................................................5

NFL Strength Ratings ......................................................................................6

NFL Matchups .................................................................................................7

NFL Week 4 Tidbits ........................................................................................12

Football Line Moves .....................................................................................14

College Football VI Picks .............................................................................15

College Football Strength Ratings .............................................................16

College Football Head-to-Head Series Breakdown .................................18

College Football Matchups ........................................................................22

Handicapping the Extreme Statistics in College Football After 4 Weeks ...34

College Football Top Weekly Trends ..........................................................37

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


ROTATION SCHEDULE101 MIAMI 44 44 149 OHIO U -3 -2 201 OKLAHOMA -1 -3.5

P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM FOX102 CINCINNATI -7 -7 150 MIAMI OHIO 57.5 52 202 TCU 70 69.5

151 UCF 56.5 61.5 203 MISSOURI 45 53.5P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM CBSC P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM SEC

152 EAST CAROLINA -6 -4 204 LSU -14 -13103 KANSAS 81 80 153 AKRON -4 -7 205 SAN DIEGO ST -20 -19

P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM FOX 1 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPNN104 TEXAS TECH -29 -29 154 KENT ST 56.5 54.5 206 S ALABAMA 53 51105 CONNECTICUT 51 50 155 PURDUE 56 56 207 LA LAFAYETTE -6.5 -4.5

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM 106 HOUSTON -28 -28 156 MARYLAND -9 -10 208 NEW MEXICO ST 65 65

157 MIAMI FL -5.5 -7 209 TROY -12 -14P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN2 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM

107 TOLEDO 52 52 158 GEORGIA TECH 50 52 210 IDAHO 61.5 59.5P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPN2 159 ILLINOIS 55.5 54 211 SAN JOSE ST 59 55

108 BYU -3.5 -3.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN2 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM 109 STANFORD 47 44 160 NEBRASKA -21 -21 212 NEW MEXICO -4.5 -9.5

P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN 161 WISCONSIN 48.5 44.5 213 UTAH ST 58 58.5110 WASHINGTON -3.5 -3 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPN2

162 MICHIGAN -11 -11 214 BOISE ST -21 -20163 LOUISVILLE 2.5 -2 215 OREGON -1 -2

111 BUFFALO 41 39.5 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ABC P: 6:30PM C: 8:30PM E: 9:30PM PAC12P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 164 CLEMSON 67 67 216 WASHINGTON ST 74 75.5

112 BOSTON COLLEGE -18 -18 165 NORTH CAROLINA 69 69 217 FRESNO ST 64 59.5113 MARSHALL 69.5 70.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM CBSC

P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM 166 FLORIDA ST -12 -11 218 UNLV -7 -9114 PITTSBURGH -18 -16 167 LA MONROE 54.5 55.5 219 NEVADA -6 -3.5115 MEMPHIS 64 66.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM SEC P: 9:00PM C: 11:00PM E: 12:00AM

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 168 AUBURN -34 -33 220 HAWAII 60 58.5116 OLE MISS -15 -15 169 NAVY 53.5 47.5117 TULANE -2 -3 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBSC

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 170 AIR FORCE -7 -7.5118 MASSACHUSETTS 45 43 171 RICE 59.5 59119 MINNESOTA 54 56 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 172 SOUTHERN MISS -22 -25 251 INDIANAPOLIS -1 -2.5120 PENN ST -3 -3 173 WYOMING 56 55.5 P: 6:30AM C: 8:30AM E: 9:30AM CBS121 NORTHWESTERN 41 43 P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPNU 252 JACKSONVILLE 49.5 49.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU 174 COLORADO ST -7 -6.5 253 CLEVELAND 45.5 46122 IOWA -12 -13 175 KENTUCKY 57 57.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 123 RUTGERS 58 58 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN 254 WASHINGTON -9.5 -8

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 176 ALABAMA -35 -35 255 BUFFALO 41.5 41.5124 OHIO ST -39 -38 177 TENNESSEE -3 -3.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 125 KANSAS ST 52.5 54 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBS 256 NEW ENGLAND -4.5 -4.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPNU 178 GEORGIA 52 53 257 SEATTLE -1 -1126 WEST VIRGINIA -3.5 -3.5 179 GEORGIA ST 52.5 52 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 127 VIRGINIA 54 60.5 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM 258 NY JETS 43 43

P: 9:30AM C: 11:30AM E: 12:30PM 180 APPALACHIAN ST -21 -19 259 CAROLINA -3.5 -3128 DUKE -4 -3.5 181 FLORIDA -9.5 -10 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 129 NOTRE DAME -13 -10 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM SEC 260 ATLANTA 50 50.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN 182 VANDERBILT 41.5 41 261 DETROIT -3 -3130 SYRACUSE 69 74.5 183 UTAH 64.5 67 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 131 SOUTH FLORIDA -6 -6 P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM PAC12 262 CHICAGO 46 46

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPNU 184 CALIFORNIA -1 -2.5 263 TENNESSEE 41 40.5132 CINCINNATI 59.5 59.5 185 TEXAS 70 71 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 133 SMU 51 52 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ABC 264 HOUSTON -6.5 -6.5

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNN 186 OKLAHOMA ST -3.5 -3 265 OAKLAND 47 46.5134 TEMPLE -13 -12 187 OREGON ST 55.5 55.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 135 OLD DOMINION -9.5 -9 P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM PAC12 266 BALTIMORE -4 -3

P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM 188 COLORADO -17 -18 267 DENVER -3 -3136 CHARLOTTE 58 58 189 WAKE FOREST 51.5 48.5 P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 137 MIDDLE TENN ST -15 -16 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 268 TAMPA BAY 44.5 44

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 190 NC STATE -9 -12 269 DALLAS -3 -3138 NORTH TEXAS 61.5 62 191 TEXAS A&M -16 -18 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 139 UTEP 64 57 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM SEC 270 SAN FRANCISCO 46 45.5

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 192 SOUTH CAROLINA 45.5 48 271 NEW ORLEANS 53.5 53.5140 LOUISIANA TECH -20 -19 193 ARIZONA 59.5 58 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 141 FLA ATLANTIC -5.5 -7 P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM ESPN 272 SAN DIEGO -4.5 -4

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 194 UCLA -10 -13 273 LOS ANGELES 44 43142 FLA INTERNATIONAL 53 52 195 ARIZONA ST 64.5 64 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 143 W MICHIGAN -3 -3 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM FOX 274 ARIZONA -9.5 -8

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM CBSC 196 USC -8 -10 275 KANSAS CITY 47.5 47144 C MICHIGAN 59.5 55.5 197 BAYLOR -17 -17 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC145 N ILLINOIS 58 58 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FOX 1 276 PITTSBURGH -4.5 -5.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 198 IOWA ST 59 60146 BALL ST -3.5 -4 199 MICHIGAN ST -7.5 -7147 E MICHIGAN 65 66.5 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM BIG10 277 NY GIANTS 44 43

P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM 200 INDIANA 54 53.5 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN148 BOWLING GREEN -4.5 -3 278 MINNESOTA -3.5 -4

BYES: GREEN BAY, PHILADELPHIALondon, England

MONDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2016

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2016

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2016

NFL WEEK 4 cont'dSUNDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2016

NFL WEEK 4 COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2016SATURDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2016THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2016

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5


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VI Jim says…The bounceback theory will certainly be tested this week as Pittsburgh hosts Kansas City on SNF as a 5.5-point favorite. The Steelers come off one of their worst games under Mike Tomlin, and are now being asked by oddsmakers to put together a convincing win over what is respected as one of the better teams in the AFC in Kansas City. On top of that, the Chiefs are coming off their best performance of the season, a 24-3 dominant outing against the Jets. Now, the argument can be made that the Steelers will finally have their star offensive trio back together in Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell as the latter returns from suspension, but will that be enough to reverse what was an awful performance last week at Philadelphia? The Steelers defense has been anything but stellar as well, allowing 6.5 yards per play, 26th in the NFL. I don’t like that or their momentum heading into Sunday night as favorites, take the Chiefs.

VI Jason says…A pair of 1-2 teams with similar yards per play statistics go head-to-head on Thursday night. The ironic thing is that there is a 7-point spread attached to the game. Most of that has to do with the expectations of the teams four weeks ago, as Cincinnati has won double-digit games in four straight seasons. This is the here & now however, and the 2016 Bengals don’t seem to resemble those other teams as they are struggling to run the ball and the defense has lost any type of intimidation factor it once had while turning into a rather ordinary unit. Miami has proven to be offensively capable too, gaining a prolific 7.5 yards per pass attempt. That leads to a pretty nice road dog system with a 33-11 ATS record since 2011 which says to back road dogs who gained better than 7.0 YPA in their prior contest when playing in a game involving two good passing teams gaining 7.3 YPA or more. Dolphins get a 6th ATS win over Cincy in L7 games.

VI Doug says…While I understand it, still was pleasantly surprised to see Dallas as a three-point favorite at San Francisco. The 49ers are back home after two blowout road losses and they will undoubtedly play better at Levi’s Stadium. Yet, Dallas is not that that far removed from a 3-0 start and the in the victory over Chicago, you saw a confidence of past Cowboys teams which has not been seen since 2014. For San Fran to beat Dallas, they would have to go after Dallas’ greatest weakness, pass defense. One problem, Blaine Gabbert is the Niners quarterback and is not capable unless something miraculous happens to make that happen. Not a blowout, just solid 7-10 point win by The Boys.

VI Jim 18-12 (60%) 4-5 (44%)*

VI Jason 15-15 (50%) 7-2 (78%)*

VI Doug 19-11 (63%) 8-1 (89%)*

Power Ratings15-15 (50%)

Effective Strength 14-16 (47%)

Forecaster 14-16 (47%)

Bettors Ratings 14-16 (47%)

Consensus 17-13 (57%)

Thursday, September 29, 2016 - (101) MIAMI at (102) CINCINNATI (-7)Cincinnati Miami* Miami Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati

Thursday, September 29, 2016 - (101) MIAMI at (102) CINCINNATI - TOTAL (44)UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Sunday, October 2, 2016 - (251) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (252) JACKSONVILLE (+2.5)Jacksonville* Indianapolis Jacksonville* Indianapolis Jacksonville Jacksonville Indianapolis Jacksonville

Sunday, October 2, 2016 - (251) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (252) JACKSONVILLE - TOTAL (49.5)UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER

Sunday, October 2, 2016 - (263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTON (-6.5)Houston Houston* Houston* Tennessee Houston Houston Tennessee Houston

Sunday, October 2, 2016 - (263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTON - TOTAL (40.5)UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, October 2, 2016 - (269) DALLAS at (270) SAN FRANCISCO (+3)San

Francisco*

Dallas* Dallas* San

Francisco

San

Francisco

San

Francisco

San

Francisco

San Francisco

Sunday, October 2, 2016 - (269) DALLAS at (270) SAN FRANCISCO - TOTAL (45.5)UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, October 2, 2016 - (275) KANSAS CITY at (276) PITTSBURGH (-5)Kansas

City*

Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Kansas

City

Kansas

City

Kansas

City

Kansas

City

Kansas City

Sunday, October 2, 2016 - (275) KANSAS CITY at (276) PITTSBURGH - TOTAL (47)OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

NFL VI PICKS

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For every issue of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016(101) MIAMI at (102) CINCINNATIIt has been three years since these teams have faced off and for Cincinnati it could be another three as far as they are concerned. The Bengals are 0-3 SU and ATS against Miami in recent matchups and have lost five of six (1-5 ATS) to the Dolphins at home. With this the road team is 6-2 ATS, but fave/underdog is even at 4-all. The Under is 4-3-1.

SEPTEMBER 30, 2016(251) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (252) JACKSONVILLEIt is off to London for these AFC South combatants. Last season Jacksonville got the cash twice, which ended five-game spread losing streak to the Colts. One of those is when the Jaguars were a favorite, leaving underdogs a dismal 2-9 ATS the last 5 1/2 seasons. Lower scoring have also prevailed with the UNDER 8-2 in the past 10.

(253) CLEVELAND at (254) WASHINGTONThis nonconference clash is like clockwork, played every four years since 2004. The other consistent ingredient has been the underdog getting the money, being the spread winner each time. On two occasions that has been Cleveland and the road team, but not always at the same time. The same is true of the total which has the Under 2-1.

(255) BUFFALO at (256) NEW ENGLANDThis will be Tom Brady’s last game to miss and if Rex Ryan is going to beat Bill Belichick, this might be one of his few last chances. In Ryan’s favor is 6-1-1 ATS record for the underdog and the visitor has been nearly as strong at 5-1-1 ATS. The total have consistently been higher than the oddsmakers forecast at 7-3 OVER. Since 2009, New England is only 7-6-1 ATS.

(257) SEATTLE at (258) N.Y. JETSLooking back 20 years, the SU winner is 6-1 ATS and four times that has been the Flyboys. With Seattle improved in recent years, they have won and covered, but those were in Coffee Town. In all the home team has reeled off four consecutive covers. If you have bet the underdog and Under, but not necessarily at the same time, you would 4-3 records.

(259) CAROLINA at (260) ATLANTAThis is just your typical NFC South battle, where runs are the norm, not the exception. For

example, Carolina is 6-2 ATS against Atlanta in past eight, which was preceded by the Falcons posting 6-1 ATS mark. The home team has covered six of seven and is 8-2 ATS since 2011. What about totals, you guessed it, another run, with six straight Under’s.

(261) DETROIT at (262) CHICAGOWith the kind of start Chicago is off to this season, Detroit will have a reasonable chance make seven straight wins over the Bears (4-2 ATS). The Lions lost the previous two, but covered both. In these Midwestern rivals past 10 encounters, the fave/dog is a dead heat, with the home team at 6-4 ATS. The total has alternated the last half dozen, with Over your odd-numbered winner.

(263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTONFor bettors, strictly one-way action. Houston has won four in a row and is money-generating 9-1 ATS against Tennessee. Most of the time the Texans have the favored club which explains 6-2 ATS record. However, the home squad has dumped four of past six, with the Over coming in at tidy 4-2 for those following the AFC South battle.

(265) OAKLAND at (266) BALTIMORESince 1995, with the exception of 2001, if you choose the home team in the AFC affair, you are pleased as punch with the results. The club in standard team colors has punched six consecutive winning tickets and eight of nine overall. Early on, points were tough to come by with the Under 4-0, but since the Over is 3-1-1. Overall, Baltimore holds 6-3 ATS edge.

(267) DENVER at (268) TAMPA BAYThe most striking aspect of this AFC-NFC matchup has been the competitiveness. The last six have all been determined by eight or fewer points and Tampa Bay holds an unusual 3-1-2 ATS edge. All of the Buccaneers spread winners have been as a road dog and they will attempt to breakthrough at home. Lastly, the Under is 4-2.

(269) DALLAS at (270) SAN FRANCISCOBack in the late 1980’s and early 90’s this was among the premier rivalries in the sport. Not so much anymore, yet San Francisco has still controlled the wagering action at 7-3-2 ATS, since the start of 1994 season. The home team has enjoyed a bit of an advantage at 3-1-2 ATS. The contest two years ago broke a 6-0 stretch of purely Over’s.

(271) NEW ORLEANS at (272) SAN DIEGOThe first thing that pops into most bettor’s heads for this tilt is points, and lots of them. Yet, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers have seen more of each other at Pro Bowls than opposing each other on the gridiron. The Over has clicked off four straight wins and five of six going back to 1994. New Orleans has covered the last two, yet the actual numbers have this at contest as mostly even against the sportsbooks.

(273) LOS ANGELES at (274) ARIZONAShorter trip for this NFC West showdown with the Rams back in L.A. Arizona wants to the direction of rivalry headed the same way, being spread winners in 12 of last 17. Interesting to find the road club has rung up three straight ATS winners and is 8-4 ATS the last six years. The

NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


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total has gone back and forth for six games, with Under the last one.

(275) KANSAS CITY at (276) PITTSBURGHScheduling used to be a great deal less sophisticated and this is shown by the fact from 1992 to 2003, Kansas City hosted Pittsburgh eight times in a row! Everything is more fair today and Pittsburgh will be home team for the fourth time in seven battles. The home club has assembled 6-1 ATS mark and the Under is on 4-0 role. Looking info fave/dog/fave we find 2-0, 0-3 and 2-0 against the spread.

OCTOBER 3, 2016(277) N.Y. GIANTS at (278) MINNESOTAThe one distinguishing game between these teams was playoff game in 2001, won by New York at home 41-0 as three-point underdogs. This NFC joust has been marked by lengthy trends. From 2003-08 the road underdog was a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS. Since the time the favorite is 4-0 ATS and when the home team has played in own stadium, they are 3-0 ATS. (Remember torn roof in 2013, when Vikings had to play at Golden Gophers stadium)

NFL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS(275) KANSAS CITY AT (276) PITTSBURGHPITTSBURGH is 18-6-1 ATS(L25G) - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.15 yards per point(CS)( $1140 Profit with a 41.5% ROI )

(251) INDIANAPOLIS VS (252) JACKSONVILLEINDIANAPOLIS is 18-6-1 ATS(L25G) NON HOME GAMES - Against lesser-scoring teams averaging 18.5 PPG or less(CS)( $1140 Profit with a 41.5% ROI )

(259) CAROLINA AT (260) ATLANTACAROLINA is 20-5 ATS(L25G) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 5.8 yards per play(CS)( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

41.5% ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY ON

41.5% ROI

52.7% ROI

(251) INDIANAPOLIS VS (252) JACKSONVILLEJACKSONVILLE is 24-12 OVER(L5Y) - As underdog( $1080 Profit with a 27.3% ROI )

(259) CAROLINA AT (260) ATLANTAATLANTA is 17-7 OVER(L24G) at HOME - Against elite defensive teams yielding less than 4.9 yards per play(CS)( $930 Profit with a 35.2% ROI )

(267) DENVER AT (268) TAMPA BAYDENVER is 19-6 OVER(L25G) - 1000 or more travel miles( $1240 Profit with a 45.1% ROI )

27.3% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

35.2% ROI

45.1% ROI

(101) MIAMI AT (102) CINCINNATIMIAMI is 1-8 ATS(L2Y) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG(CS)( $690 Profit with a 69.7% ROI )

(263) TENNESSEE AT (264) HOUSTONTENNESSEE is 21-41-5 ATS(L5Y) - All Games( $1790 Profit with a 24.3% ROI )

(273) LA RAMS AT (274) ARIZONALA RAMS is 7-18 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 24 PPG or more(CS)( $1030 Profit with a 37.5% ROI )

23.5% ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

24.3% ROI

37.5% ROI

(101) MIAMI AT (102) CINCINNATICINCINNATI is 23-8 UNDER(L5Y) - Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 6.9 yards per attempt(CS)( $1420 Profit with a 41.6% ROI )

(253) CLEVELAND AT (254) WASHINGTONCLEVELAND is 12-5 UNDER(L17G) on ROAD - OU line of 45 or more( $650 Profit with a 34.8% ROI )

(269) DALLAS AT (270) SAN FRANCISCOSAN FRANCISCO is 19-6 UNDER(L25G) at HOME - All Games( $1240 Profit with a 45.1% ROI )

41.6% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

34.8% ROI

45.1% ROI

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Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied

schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?101 MIAMI 44 21.5 15.4 17.7 17.5 102 CINCINNATI -7 26.0 -7.0 28.7 CIN 25.9 26.2 251 INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 22.5 25.3 25.3 25.7 252 JACKSONVILLE 49.5 20.0 2.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 253 CLEVELAND 46 17.5 15.8 16.7 17.3 254 WASHINGTON -8 22.5 -9.5 28.6 WAS 25.9 26.4 255 BUFFALO 41.5 22.0 17.8 19.3 BUF 18.3 256 NEW ENGLAND -4.5 31.0 -4.4 22.1 18.9 23.7 257 SEATTLE -1 27.5 22.2 19.9 21.1 258 NY JETS 43 24.0 1.0 21.1 22.1 21.1 259 CAROLINA -3 28.5 28.0 23.1 26.5 260 ATLANTA 50.5 22.5 3.5 21.3 23.4 23.3 261 DETROIT -3 22.0 22.7 21.7 24.4 262 CHICAGO 46 19.0 2.0 24.2 CHI 23.7 CHI 22.3 263 TENNESSEE 40.5 20.0 14.9 16.4 17.8 264 HOUSTON -6.5 23.5 -6.0 25.7 24.7 23.6 265 OAKLAND 46.5 23.0 22.0 22.0 20.5 266 BALTIMORE -3 24.5 -4.1 24.4 24.6 25.0 267 DENVER -3 28.5 27.4 25.6 24.2 268 TAMPA BAY 44 21.5 4.8 20.0 22.3 22.0 269 DALLAS -3 23.5 24.5 24.0 24.6 270 SAN FRANCISCO 45.5 19.0 2.1 23.7 23.0 22.3 271 NEW ORLEANS 53.5 20.5 24.9 25.4 24.1 272 SAN DIEGO -4 22.5 -4.5 29.6 29.1 28.7 273 LOS ANGELES 43 21.5 15.7 16.8 17.8 274 ARIZONA -8 27.5 -9.0 28.7 ARI 25.7 26.4 275 KANSAS CITY 47 25.0 21.5 20.3 21.3 276 PITTSBURGH -5.5 27.5 -5.1 25.9 24.5 25.8 277 NY GIANTS 43 23.0 14.9 15.8 17.9 278 MINNESOTA -4 27.0 -6.6 25.0 MIN 23.2 24.5

VEGASINSIDER NFL STRENGTH RATINGS


7


(101) MIAMI [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (102) CINCINNATI (-7 | 44) [SU:1-2 | ATS:0-2-1]SEPTEMBER 29, 2016 8:25 PM on CBS - PAUL BROWN STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI 21.3 19 20-83 [4.1] 38-24-283 [7.5] 17.2 22.3 24 34-147 [4.3] 39-25-268 [6.9] 18.6 -3 -1.0 CINCINNATI 18.7 20 22-82 [3.7] 38-25-293 [7.6] 20.1 25.0 21 30-109 [3.7] 36-20-247 [6.9] 14.2 -1 -6.3

No doubt both these teams are not pleased to be sitting at 1-2, especially Cincinnati. Each club has faced arduous schedule, but has seen too many breakdowns on both offense and defense, which directly takes them to losing record. In this contest, Cincinnati has to run right at Miami defense, which is 32nd against the rush. The Bengals are not without faults with nine touchdown passed allowed and the Dolphins new short passing game should have success against the Cincy secondary. Watch spread very closely as early number had 7 and whatever team you prefer could be worth jumping on for half point. Cannot overlook the Fins who are 27-13-2 ATS as road underdogs versus non-division competition.

GAME TRENDS• CINCINNATI is 5-1-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - In September• MIAMI is 1-9 ATS(L10G) - On non-grass field• CINCINNATI is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)

(251) INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5 | 49.5) [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] VS (252) JACKSONVILLE [SU:0-3 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 2, 2016 9:30 AM on CBS - WEMBLEY STADIUM (LONDON, )[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 27.0 23 22-86 [3.9] 41-25-285 [6.9] 13.7 31.7 23 24-96 [4.0] 37-26-306 [8.3] 12.7 0 -4.7 JACKSONVILLE 18.0 18 19-55 [2.8] 42-26-262 [6.2] 17.6 28.0 20 27-110 [4.0] 33-22-202 [6.1] 11.1 -3 -10.0

Early start to football as the NFL heads back to London. Jacksonville has been going there the last several years and it is 50-50 win or lose if Gus Bradley is still coach with the Jaguars heading into bye week. Chuck Pagano staved off similar situation with Colts victory over San Diego. Though it is cliché, for both these teams it is strictly a function of making plays. If Andrew Luck is not under heavy duress, he can still throw the pill. Blake Bortles has talent around him, but consecutive games of three turnovers at this level leads to defeats. Outcome could easily come down to believing and the Jags are 0-6 ATS against passing teams averaging 260 or more YPG since 2014.

GAME TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS(L5Y) NON HOME GAMES - Against lesser-scoring teams averaging 18.5

PPG or less(CS)• JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS(L10G) NON HOME GAMES - OU line of 45 or more• INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 OVER(L10G) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.2 yards

per play(CS)

(253) CLEVELAND [SU:0-3 | ATS:1-2] AT (254) WASHINGTON (-8 | 46) [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 2, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEVELAND 18.0 17 25-145 [5.7] 32-19-224 [6.9] 20.5 28.0 23 28-109 [3.9] 40-24-294 [7.3] 14.4 +1 -10.0WASHINGTON 22.7 21 20-76 [3.8] 42-27-331 [7.9] 17.9 30.7 25 27-123 [4.6] 35-25-302 [8.6] 13.8 +1 -8.0

Cleveland had Miami beat but a missed 46-yard field goal to let the Dolphins off the hook. At least for a few days, the Browns do not have a quarterback question, as rookie Cody Kessler helped his team reach 24 points, with major contributions from WR Terrelle Pryor and TE Gary Barnidge. The Browns are 11-1 ATS vs. under .500 non-division foe in Games 1-4. Washington earned a much needed win at the Giants, but with how the NFC East is shaping up, a 1-3 start could bury them. Kirk Cousins and Redskins offense was sharper against New York and with Cleveland 27th in total defense, Washington should have more success. Skins are 6-0 ATS versus defenses allowing 350 or more YPG.

GAME TRENDS• CLEVELAND is 6-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents

by more than 8.0 points per game(CS)• WASHINGTON is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) at HOME - Against lesser-scoring teams averaging 18.5 PPG or

less(CS)

NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



8




(255) BUFFALO [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (256) NEW ENGLAND (-4.5 | 41.5) [SU:3-0 | ATS:3-0]OCTOBER 2, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BUFFALO 23.7 14 25-120 [4.8] 26-16-164 [6.3] 12.0 22.7 24 29-98 [3.4] 39-24-285 [7.3] 16.9 +5 +1.0 NEW ENGLAND 27.0 21 36-151 [4.2] 29-20-219 [7.5] 13.7 15.0 21 21-90 [4.4] 41-27-271 [6.6] 24.1 +4 +12.0

New England is saying they are hopeful either Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett can go this week, however, neither would be at 100 percent. The Patriots do not want to bring in veteran quarterback for a week and have to waive somebody off current roster and reports have WR Julian Edelman a possible option, since he played QB at Kent State and knows the offense. One win and Rex Ryan is full of himself and promises whoever plays QB for New England, he is going to pressure them incessantly. It might be even more helpful if the Bills offense scored to put a different kind of pressure on the Patriots. Buffalo is 2-8 ATS in the first of two away assignments.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 7-0-3 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Conference games• BUFFALO is 2-7 ATS(L3Y) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)• NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER(L10G) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3 yards per

point(CS)

(257) SEATTLE (-1 | 43) [SU:2-1 | ATS:1-2] AT (258) NY JETS [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-1-1]OCTOBER 2, 2016 1:00 PM on FOX - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SEATTLE 17.3 19 29-102 [3.5] 37-24-257 [7.0] 20.8 12.3 13 25-88 [3.5] 28-16-163 [5.8] 20.4 -4 +5.0 NY JETS 20.7 22 29-131 [4.5] 38-21-249 [6.6] 18.4 26.0 17 22-72 [3.3] 31-22-284 [9.1] 13.7 -7 -5.3

We will not see a line on this nonconference clash until we have more information on Russell Wilson and his MCL sprain. Either way, Wilson would have restricted mobility against a Jets pass rush that has nine sacks. If Wilson cannot play and with RB Thomas Rawls out, Trevone Boykin faces unenviable task of facing Gang Green defense behind pedestrian offensive line. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a game for the ages, six picks and zero touchdowns. Jets players say they still believe in their quarterback but with no viable other option, what can they say. All aspects considered, this could well be a strong play on the total, with two very good defenses and quarterbacks either wounded physically or mentally.

GAME TRENDS• SEATTLE is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - 2000 or more travel miles• NY JETS is 0-7 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards

per(CS)• SEATTLE is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5

PPG(CS)

(259) CAROLINA (-3 | 50.5) [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (260) ATLANTA [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 2, 2016 1:00 PM on FOX - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA 25.3 22 32-146 [4.5] 36-21-243 [6.7] 15.4 23.3 17 26-90 [3.4] 30-18-183 [6.1] 11.7 -2 +2.0 ATLANTA 34.7 24 27-136 [5.0] 34-24-312 [9.1] 12.9 30.3 27 25-120 [4.7] 44-31-313 [7.2] 14.3 +2 +4.4

At the very least, Carolina figured to defeat Minnesota in Charlotte, but instead the Vikings defense was like a snake and chocked the life out of the Panthers offense. The Carolina offensive line was abused and Cam Newton was sacked eight times and tossed three interceptions. The Panthers start a three-game slate of division battles and is 6-15 SU and 7-13-1 ATS at the Georgia Dome. With their victory on Monday night, Atlanta has claimed first place in the NFC South and will look to extend it over whom would be their chief competitor. It does not appear the Falcons are going to be in many defensive struggles and will again have to score to hold off Carolina.

GAME TRENDS• CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 5.8 yards per

play(CS)• ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3

yards per carry(CS)• CAROLINA is 6-0-1 OVER(L2Y) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 23.5 PPG(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS


9


(261) DETROIT (-3 | 46) [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (262) CHICAGO [SU:0-3 | ATS:0-3]OCTOBER 2, 2016 1:00 PM on FOX - SOLDIER FIELD (CHICAGO, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DETROIT 27.0 24 23-101 [4.3] 40-27-313 [7.8] 15.3 28.3 21 22-115 [5.1] 35-24-264 [7.6] 13.4 -1 -1.3 CHICAGO 15.0 17 18-70 [4.0] 36-22-241 [6.7] 20.7 27.7 21 36-143 [4.0] 31-21-214 [6.9] 12.9 -4 -12.7

If you had Chicago for win total UNDER 7, you have to be encouraged by their start at 0-3. The Bears defense is missing quite a few players due to injury, yet no help is coming at quarterback position. John Fox might be a really good coach, but without somebody under center who can run an offense and make plays in the normal flow and at crunch time, Chicago has real chance for 1-10 ATS mark at home against NFC combatants since 2014. Detroit played it’s part in Green Bay scoring 31 points in a half with obvious miscues. Though the Lions offense made it a game, the hole was too big. Detroit is 6-0 (4-2 ATS) against Chicago since 2013.

GAME TRENDS• CHICAGO is 6-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 26.5 PPG(CS)• DETROIT is 2-8 ATS(L3Y) - On grass field• CHICAGO is 7-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 26.5

PPG(CS)

(263) TENNESSEE [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (264) HOUSTON (-6.5 | 40.5) [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 2, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TENNESSEE 14.0 20 25-128 [5.1] 36-22-229 [6.4] 25.5 19.0 18 25-108 [4.3] 36-20-240 [6.7] 18.3 -5 -5.0 HOUSTON 14.0 17 32-112 [3.5] 36-22-215 [5.9] 23.4 17.7 14 26-126 [4.8] 28-16-151 [5.3] 15.6 -2 -3.7

Marcus Mariota is supposed to be part of the solution, not the problem. To date, he’s not done what is necessary for Tennessee to become a .500 club. It is not his fault he has substandard receivers to throw to, still, if he buries passes in their chests, he’s at least absolved from blame. The Titans are 2-11 ATS off a home setback. With extra time off to shake deplorable showing at New England, Brock Osweiler has to stop throwing interceptions or Houston is where back to square one, seemingly having everything but a lead dog. The Texans have won and covered four in a row over Tennessee and will want to get bad taste out of the collective mouths from Pats debacle.

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 9-1 ATS(L10G) - as favorite of 7 or less points• TENNESSEE is 0-10 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Conference games• HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 5.8 yards

per play(CS)

(265) OAKLAND [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1] AT (266) BALTIMORE (-3 | 46.5) [SU:3-0 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 2, 2016 1:00 PM on CBS - M&T BANK STADIUM (BALTIMORE, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OAKLAND 26.7 24 25-148 [5.9] 39-26-288 [7.3] 16.3 26.3 24 27-136 [5.1] 36-24-340 [9.4] 18.1 +4 +0.4 BALTIMORE 19.0 19 25-82 [3.2] 39-25-242 [6.2] 17.1 14.7 14 23-86 [3.8] 31-20-168 [5.4] 17.3 -1 +4.3

The Oakland defense was ready to break again, but thanks to two Tennessee red zone penalties, the Raiders survived. Next is a second straight road game east of the Mississippi River and they will not be bailed out by Baltimore, who is not known for making silly miscues. The Oakland defense cannot permit big plays to Joe Flacco and Derek Carr has to move the chains and cash on drives in scoring territory if the Raiders are to reach 7-0 ATS as road underdogs. Even Flacco has admitted the Ravens 3-0 start has been somewhat lucky, but better to win than the alternative. If Baltimore tallies touchdowns, they will be 6-0 SU and ATS at home versus Da Raiders.

GAME TRENDS• OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS(L2Y) on ROAD - Conference games• BALTIMORE is 1-6 ATS(L2Y) at HOME - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6

yards per play(CS)• BALTIMORE is 6-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against weak rushing defenses yielding more than 4.7 yards per

carry(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS

10




(267) DENVER (-3 | 44) [SU:3-0 | ATS:3-0] AT (268) TAMPA BAY [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 2, 2016 4:05 PM on FOX - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DENVER 28.0 22 28-111 [4.0] 31-21-243 [7.7] 12.6 19.0 20 27-128 [4.7] 35-20-178 [5.1] 16.1 0 +9.0 TAMPA BAY 23.3 24 24-86 [3.6] 47-29-297 [6.3] 16.4 33.7 19 28-98 [3.5] 33-20-272 [8.2] 11.0 -6 -10.4

We knew about the Denver defense, but Trevor Siemian has been a pleasant surprise for the Broncos offense. The second- year QB is coming off first 300-yard passing game and his throws down the field were on target. If Los Angeles can ring up four touchdowns on Tampa Bay defense, Denver has to be encouraged they can do the same and is 10-1 ATS in first quarter of season off a SU and ATS non-division triumph. The Buccaneers sit at -6 in turnover differential and facing a defense like Denver, if they are sloppy again, they will have no chance at comeback like last week. The Bucs are bankroll depleting 8-21-1 ATS since 2007 as home underdogs.

GAME TRENDS• DENVER is 14-2-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - On grass field• TAMPA BAY is 1-9 ATS(L10G) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)• DENVER is 7-0 OVER(L5Y) - 1500 or more travel miles

(269) DALLAS (-3 | 45.5) [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1] AT (270) SAN FRANCISCO [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 2, 2016 4:25 PM on FOX - LEVIS STADIUM (SANTA CLARA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DALLAS 25.7 24 34-134 [4.0] 33-22-251 [7.6] 15.0 20.0 21 19-89 [4.8] 41-26-290 [7.1] 18.9 +2 +5.7 SAN FRANCISCO 24.3 19 33-117 [3.5] 32-18-175 [5.5] 12.0 27.7 18 30-123 [4.0] 36-21-255 [7.1] 13.6 +3 -3.4

If you saw San Francisco past two contests, that 28-0 win over Los Angeles is beginning to feel like a mirage. To the surprise of nobody, Blaine Gabbert is having issues making the right read and delivering passes on time and accurately. Playing at home will help the 49ers, but they are still 6-17 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games. When Tony Romo went down again, Dallas fans were thinking here to go again. Once the season started, we began to see maybe Dak Presott is the QB of the future and Ezekiel Elliot is the back the Cowboys needed. Dallas enjoys grass fields, posting 10-2 ATS mark on the real stuff.

GAME TRENDS• DALLAS is 10-2 ATS(L3Y) - On grass field• SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS(L5Y) - Before playing ARIZONA• SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 UNDER(L2Y) at HOME - Conference games

(271) NEW ORLEANS [SU:0-3 | ATS:1-2] AT (272) SAN DIEGO (-4 | 53.5) [SU:1-2 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 2, 2016 4:25 PM on FOX - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 26.3 25 19-81 [4.2] 47-31-342 [7.3] 16.1 32.0 24 30-149 [5.0] 36-25-299 [8.2] 14.0 0 -5.7 SAN DIEGO 29.0 22 28-114 [4.1] 33-23-253 [7.6] 12.7 24.3 23 19-82 [4.4] 45-30-322 [7.2] 16.6 +2 +4.7

With another chance later in the fourth quarter to win, San Diego let it slip their fingers, falling 26-22 at Indianapolis. The Chargers are now 3-10 (8-5 ATS) in games determined by eight or fewer points since the start of last year and after awhile it is not just bad luck. San Diego is not executing at the most critical times and will not beat New Orleans it would seem without a substantial lead. It rather obvious New Orleans does not have the capacity to stop many opposing teams until they get more healthy bodies back. The defensive breakdowns are numerous and frequent and it is to imagine Drew Brees can save them. At least the Saints are 7-1 ATS after Monday nighter.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ORLEANS is 6-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards

per play(CS)• SAN DIEGO is 1-9 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.1

yards per attempt(CS)• SAN DIEGO is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6

yards per play(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS


11


(273) LA RAMS [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1] AT (274) ARIZONA (-8 | 43) [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 2, 2016 4:25 PM on FOX - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA RAMS 15.3 15 27-89 [3.3] 30-16-174 [5.7] 17.2 21.0 25 29-100 [3.4] 43-27-266 [6.2] 17.4 0 -5.7 ARIZONA 26.3 22 24-95 [4.0] 40-23-274 [6.8] 14.0 21.0 19 28-133 [4.8] 37-22-189 [5.2] 15.3 +3 +5.3

What kind of odds do think you might have gotten going into this NFC West showdown with the Rams would be ahead of Arizona in the standings? Opposing teams have a bead on the Cardinals deep passing game and are attacking Carson Palmer in the pocket, knowing he is stationary target, now at 36. Coach Jeff Fisher will look to do the same and if Bruce Arians stubbornly keeps trying to throw down the field, Los Angeles could make this compelling. With Todd Gurley getting a few holes, the Rams running game might be gelling and Arizona is being gouged for 4.7 YPC. The does not look like good spot for Cards as home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points at 1-12 ATS.

GAME TRENDS• ARIZONA is 11-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per

point(CS)• LA RAMS is 1-6 ATS(L3Y) - Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS)• LA RAMS is 7-0 UNDER(L3Y) - AS underdog of more than 7 points

(275) KANSAS CITY [SU:2-1 | ATS:1-2] AT (276) PITTSBURGH (-5.5 | 47) [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 2, 2016 8:30 PM on NBC - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS CITY 23.0 19 22-91 [4.2] 39-26-241 [6.1] 14.4 16.3 19 29-123 [4.2] 38-21-225 [6.0] 21.3 +5 +6.7 PITTSBURGH 21.7 19 25-100 [3.9] 39-23-254 [6.5] 16.3 22.0 21 20-75 [3.8] 43-28-332 [7.8] 18.5 -1 -0.3

The most popular piece of game tape that will be floating around is how Philadelphia stifled Pittsburgh offense. The Steelers had three points and just 251 total yards. Most feel this can fixed, especially with Le’Veon Bell coming back, still, the receiving group is not the same as last year. Add in Pittsburgh is 31st against the pass and they are not a lock to reach 11-0 ATS after allowing 28 or more points. Kansas City developed winning formula last season after 1-5 start, grab the lead early, own time of possession and wait for opponent to panic and make mistakes. With this conservative approach, the Chiefs just might reach 10-1 ATS off consecutive UNDER’s the last three seasons.

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 8-1-1 ATS(L10G) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.15 yards

per attempt(CS)• KANSAS CITY is 1-6 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.15 yards

per point(CS)• KANSAS CITY is 7-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 7.25 yards

per attempt(CS)

(277) NY GIANTS [SU:2-1 | ATS:1-2] AT (278) MINNESOTA (-4 | 43) [SU:3-0 | ATS:3-0]OCTOBER 3, 2016 8:30 PM on ESPN - US BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY GIANTS 21.0 23 26-99 [3.9] 36-25-298 [8.3] 18.9 20.3 20 24-77 [3.2] 42-25-262 [6.3] 16.7 -6 +0.7 MINNESOTA 21.3 14 25-51 [2.1] 31-19-214 [7.0] 12.4 13.3 19 24-84 [3.5] 38-22-211 [5.6] 22.2 +8 +8.0

If Eli Manning felt hurried last wait till he faces Minnesota pass rush which has 15 sacks in a trio of outings. Coach Mike Zimmer is not bashful about bringing pressure and with New York iffy at a couple O-Line positions, watch for the Vikings to bring the heat, intent on keeping three turnovers a game streak going. The Giants will also be without versatile RB Ben Vereen and the Vikes are 10-0 ATS when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards. So why is the spread so low? Oddmakers realize Minnesota is 31st in total offense and is averaging 2.1 YPC, making sustainable winning problematic. Yes, the Vikings are on 17-3 ATS run, but they need balanced attack.

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 9-1 ATS(L10G) - All Games• NY GIANTS is 2-8 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3 yards

per point(CS)• MINNESOTA is 9-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards per

carry(CS)


NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



12




A CLOSER LOOK AT 0-3, 3-0 AFTER WEEK 3With three weeks in the books already in the 2016 NFL season, it is a good time to take stock on where teams stand at this point. Unfortunately, as hard as it is to believe, and you will read more about this later, some teams overall fates’ have already been somewhat decided. That of course is if you are considering playoff hopes. For the 2-1 teams, or the 1-2 teams, there is certainly a lot to determine still, as they have probably not played neither their best nor worst football yet. However, as we tend to prefer analyzing extremes when looking for value in betting sports, we are here today to take a closer look at the teams that have either lost all three games to date, or alternatively, won all three games.

What we are looking for in analyzing the “extreme teams” to date is probabilities of success or failure down the road. Oddsmakers will typically look more closely at these teams as well, and they will be quick to adjust their own ratings on them. As such, bettors can find value that wasn’t there just weeks before. As momentum seems to play such a huge role in the success of NFL teams each season, some of these adjustments may prove to be accurate, while others simply an overreaction to early play.

Let’s take a look at the recent history of the 0-3 & 3-0 teams in certain situations, and apply those situations to fit the 2016 teams into. Note that the following analysis dates back to 2005, a span of 11 seasons.

0-3 Team Facts• Those fans of teams like CHICAGO,

CLEVELAND, JACKSONVILLE, and NEW ORLEANS might not want to believe it, but in terms of these teams’ playoff chances for 2016-17, according to history, their bed has already been made. In fact, over the last 11 NFL seasons, NO team that started the season 0-3 went on to make the postseason. Moreover, not even a single team was able to able to turn it around and finish the season over .500 in that span. Start looking ahead to the draft and 2017 I guess.

• Combined, the 49 teams that started 0-3 on the season since 2005 were 30-124-5 ATS (19.5%) at that point. For the rest of the season, they were 339-331-19 ATS, a sign of proper adjustment by oddsmakers, and slightly above .500 though not profitable. Therefore, don’t automatically rule out the Bears, Browns, Jaguars, and Saints in the next few months as betting options.

• There has been a slight ATS advantage to the truly woeful offensive teams in the early going when it comes to their rest-of-season performance after week 3. The ten 0-3 teams that scored less than 10.0 PPG were actually 66-61 ATS thereafter. Those five teams that had scored 20 PPG or more combined for just a 46-43-1 ATS record. Those in between were exactly .500 ATS. None of this year’s four winless teams are that atrocious offensively. Chicago is the lowest scoring team at 15.0 PPG.

• Likewise, teams that lost their first three games as underdogs each time combined to go

171-157 ATS in their final 13 games. Cleveland & Jacksonville would be teams qualifying for this trend in 2016. Those five teams that lost at least twice as favorites in the early going were 37-39-2 ATS, so there is no real evidence to suggest those supposed better teams will bounce back. In fact, the latter teams’ disappointment from the 0-3 start may be greater thus the chances of rebounding are less. New Orleans has been favored twice already and has gotten upended.

• Defense in the early going has provided us with some predictive nature regarding the 0-3 teams, as the nine recent teams that allowed 33.0 PPG or more during their winless start combined to go 66-52 ATS the rest of the way, a record of profitability actually. Furthermore, five of those nine teams were at least 7-9 by season’s end. Unfortunately, of our 2016 teams, New Orleans has allowed 32.0 PPG, the most of our winless teams. Conversely, the teams that allowed 22.5 PPG or less during the 0-3 start were just 47-65 ATS and none of those nine teams won more than 5 games that season. Again, the disappointment of 0-3 despite playing well defensively has proven more detrimental to teams in the long run. All three of our other winless teams have allowed at least 27.7 PPG.

• Point differential during the 0-3 start has followed a similar pattern. Teams that were blown out by more than 20.0 PPG in the first three weeks were 48-41 ATS in games 4-16. Alternatively, those 0-3 teams that were beaten by less than 7.0 PPG in their first three games went on to just a 49-61-2 ATS mark the rest of the way. While none of our teams fit the first category, New Orleans is being outscored by just 5.7 PPG now and thus fits into the play against group.

3-0 Team Facts• In the last 11 NFL seasons, 53 teams have

started the season 3-0. Of those, 12 FAILED to make the postseason, meaning the postseason chances of teams like BALTIMORE, DENVER, MINNESOTA, NEW ENGLAND, and PHILADELPHIA are about 77.4%. Last year, Atlanta started 3-0 but didn’t reach the postseason while six other teams did. From that evidence alone, recalling the 0% chance for 0-3 clubs, it is certainly more defining for a team to be winless at this point rather than undefeated.

• The combined ATS record of those 53 unbeaten teams after three weeks was 128-27-4 ATS, good for 82.6%. For the rest of the season, including playoffs, those teams were 368-377 ATS, 49.4%. This is another good indicator of how well oddsmakers adjust, and evidence that the door is closing if not closed already for any true value on our undefeated squads. In fact, the best record the rest of the way for any 3-0 team in terms of pointspreads was 8-3-2 ATS, and that’s only 72.7%. That team was Cincinnati a year ago.

• Teams that were unbeaten after three weeks but won just once or less in those three contests against the spread are potentially overrated clubs, as that group of six teams has combined to go just 30-48 ATS (38.5%) after the hot start. Rarely do they consistently reach the experts’ expectations. None of our five unbeaten teams has even lost a game ATS yet.

NFL WEEK 4 TIDBITS


13


• Consider the 3-0 SU & ATS teams a group in which you may have missed the boat. In most cases, their best pointspread days are behind them. That group has combined for a 185-208 ATS (47.1%) record in their remaining games. All of our teams other than Baltimore (2-0-1 ATS) are 3-0 ATS to this point.

• At this point, we know teams that are too good (3-0 ATS) or not real good (0-3 or 1-2 ATS) have not proven to be good bets down the road. How about the group in between, the teams that were 3-0 SU with two pointspread wins? Well, as it turns out, that group has been solid, most likely because oddsmakers haven’t fully jumped on those teams’ bandwagons yet, as they are only starting to build momentum. The record of that collective group…159-138 ATS, good for 53.5%. Place Baltimore (2-0-1 ATS) in this category as “play on” teams.

• Early season high scoring teams are the specific target of oddsmakers’ adjustments down the road, as these teams have really struggled against the spread the rest of the way. The trend reads as follows: Teams that started the season 3-0 while scoring more than 31.0 PPG are just 104-135 ATS (43.5%) in their remaining games over the L11 seasons. The Eagles (30.7 PPG) are the highest scoring unbeaten team at this point but don’t qualify for our trend.

• Great defense early, though not nearly as sexy to fans as high scoring offenses, has at least proven a stabilizing factor for good teams down the road. In fact, the 24 undefeated 3-0 teams that allowed 15.0 PPG or less were 181-165 ATS (52.3%). If you shrink that number down even lower to 10.0 PPG or less, the ATS record goes to 61-51, or 54.5% ATS. There are four teams that qualify on these angles for 2016. The Patriots (15.0), Ravens (14.7) and Vikings (13.3) on the first trend, and the Eagles (9.0) on the latter.

• According to recent history, or the last 11 seasons, there is only a 36.4% chance that the eventual Super Bowl Champion is one of our current 3-0 teams. 2006 Indianapolis, 2009 New Orleans, 2013 Seattle, and 2016 Denver were all unbeaten after three weeks, and they combined to go 12-0 ATS in the first three games and 32-30 ATS thereafter.

• Point differential is another statistic you can go on to determine whether or not a 3-0 team is worth betting the rest of the way. There have been four teams in the past 10 years that outscored teams by 20.0+ PPG in their 3-0 starts. Those teams were just 31-43 ATS the rest of the way, heavily overpriced. Philadelphia is the only one of our 3-0 teams to fit this criteria at +21.7 PPG.

TOP NFL PRE-BYE WEEK TEAM TRENDS FOR WEEK 4Last week we started our lengthy series on Bye Week Trends in the NFL, focusing specifically on the pre-Bye Week Trends affecting the teams that are off this coming weekend. In continuation of our series, here is a look at the top pre-Bye Week Trends of the teams that will be off next weekend, or week 5 of the NFL schedule. Stay tuned to this series, as next week we will be offering up not only the pre-Bye Week angles, but also the first group of post-Bye Week Trends for Green Bay & Philadelphia, as those teams will be rested up and ready to start the remainder of their campaigns.

Let’s quickly remind readers why we put so much stock in looking at the Bye Week. There are always various situations on the NFL schedule that can wreak havoc. You see, the NFL is a routine-laden league, and anything that can break that routine for a team can offer bettors opportunity. Whether its long stretches of road or home games, contests scheduled on days other than Sundays, etc., these scheduling “landmines” can be used to find betting value if you understand the consequences of such events. However, if there is one scheduling situation that is most influential, it is the BYE WEEK. Each team gets one throughout their 17-week schedule, and where it is placed and how the teams react in and out of that bye week can often make the difference of one or two wins. That of course can affect whether or not a team makes the playoffs. Clearly, the three week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is huge. We are here today to analyze the applicable PRE-BYE Week Trends for the teams that will be off in Week 5, Jacksonville, Kansas City, New Orleans, and Seattle. Therefore, these teams’ PRE-BYE Week Trends apply in this coming weekend’s game.

Please note that the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (pre-bye week game 10/2 vs. Indianapolis in London)• Jacksonville’s pre-bye week victory over

Buffalo in 2015 snapped a 4-game losing streak in that scenario

• The Jaguars have been a huge OVER team in pre-bye week games of late, 9-2 OVER in the L11

• Jacksonville is on a 1-4 SU & 1-3-1 ATS slide as a pre-bye week underdog, yielding 33.8 PPG

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (pre-bye week game 10/2 @ Pittsburgh)• Head coach Andy Reid’s teams are on a 5-3

SU & 5-2-1 ATS run in pre-bye week games, including 2-1 SU & ATS with Kansas City

• The Chiefs have put together an impressive 5-0 SU & ATS streak in pre-bye week games versus non-divisional AFC foes dating back to 2003

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (pre-bye week game 10/2 @ San Diego)• Since Sean Payton returned from his season

long suspension in 2012, the Saints are just 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in pre-bye week games, the defense allowing 36 PPG

• New Orleans boasts a 6-3 SU & 7-1-1 ATS record in its L9 chance as a pre-bye week pick em’ or underdog

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (pre-bye week game 10/2 @ NY Jets)• Head coach Pete Carroll has proven

masterful in getting his teams ready for their bye weeks, going 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in pre-bye week games with three different franchises

• The Seahawks have won five straight pre-bye week games while going 4-1 ATS

• Seattle is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its L3 pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, including a 28-7 home win over the Jets in ‘12

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The line moves tell stories about what football bettors and sportsbooks are thinking. The idea is to try to understand why and make it work in our favor each week, picking up additional cash in the process.

CFB – (129) NOTRE DAME vs. (130) SYRACUSE 12:00 ET ESPNTumultuous start of the season for Notre Dame at 1-3, firing their defensive coordinator and coach Brian Kelly announcing every position is up for grabs for those who want to play with passion. This has bettors skittish and they sent the not so Fighting Irish from -13 to -10. Syracuse has been retooled into passing team and is 6th nationally, with Notre Dame is 94th in pass defense. VIFW Take – Notre Dame covers

CFB – (163) LOUISVILLE at (164) CLEMSON 8:00 ET ABCCoaches do not talk to players about point spreads but they do talk about ‘respect’ and with Clemson having been taken from -3 to +2 at home against Louisville, the Tigers position coaches have a lot to communicate forward. The Cardinals have yet to show any weakness of any kind, thus, hard to say those betting football are wrong. VIFW Take – Lean Clemson

CFB – (193) ARIZONA at (194) UCLA 10:30 ET ESPNTwo Pac-12 teams off incredibly disappointing losses, however, the betting action has all been one-sided with UCLA shoved from -10 to -13. This certainly seems like a lot of points and you have to weigh the defensive weakness of Arizona along with the Bruins disappointment of nearly having Stanford beaten. Know this; the Wildcats are 6-17 ATS away after gaining 6.75 or YPP. VIFW Take – Lean UCLA

CFB –(357) OKLAHOMA at (358) TCU 5:00 ET FOXOklahoma might be 1-2, but there are still those who have faith in them and the Sooners have been moved from -1 to -3.5 at Fort Worth. From pure better perspective, taking Oklahoma on the half point hook seems risky and it might be better served to take a look at TCU even with their flaws and the fact they are 8-0 ATS coming off a road win. VIFW Take – Lean TCU

CFB – (215) OREGON at (216) WASHINGTON STATE 9:30 ET PAC-12NMost Washington State games are about four hours anyways, this one could be longer with two potent offense and two defenses that have more holes than a fishing net. With this in mind, the total for the Pac-12 encounter has been sent from 72 to 75. Who is going to argue with this and Oregon is 6-0 OVER after gaining 525 or more yards in three straight games. VIFW Take – Play Over

CFB – (217) FRESNO STATE at (218) UNLV 10:30 ET CBSSNHow bad is Fresno State? UNLV just lost at home to Idaho and the Bulldogs went from +10 to +13 against the Rebels. On the surface this is tricky, but Fresno State is 4-15 ATS on the road after suffering a home loss. Besides, is UNLV really that bad they could blow another great opportunity? VIFW Take – UNLV covers

CFB – (219) NEVADA at (220) HAWAI’I 11:59 ET Oceanic-PPVNot aware of an injury, thus a bit surprised to see Nevada sinking from -6 to -3.5 on the Islands. Nevada has won seven straight in this matchup and is 5-1-1 ATS. If anything the Rainbow Warriors appear weaker and with Hawai’i 0-7 ATS after allowing 37 points or more in last outing, the Wolf Pack have added value. VIFW Take – Lean Nevada

NFL - (251) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (252) JACKSONVILLE 9:30am ET CBSBright and early for Colts and Jaguars fans for this across the pond divisional clash in London. The money is following Indianapolis, who has been altered from -1 to -2.5. While this does make perfect sense, the talent difference is not significant and Jacksonville takes advantage of Indy’s defense and maybe saves their coach’s job for now. VIFW Take - Lean Jacksonville

NFL – (263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBSWith two offenses averaging 14 points a game, it is not going out on limb to believe this could be lower scoring game and the total is down a digit from 41 to 40. Just keep in mind nine of the 14 games played in Houston have been OVER’s and Tennessee is 27-13 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half of consecutive contests. VIFW Take – Play Over

NFL – (273) LOS ANGELES at (274) ARIZONA 4:25 ET FOXThe Rams are tied for first and the Cardinals are tied for last in the NFC West. Welcome to the NFL! Oddmakers made Arizona a 9.5 point favorite but quicker than a coyote howling after dark, the Cards have been lowered to 8.5. It all boils down to Carson Palmer and pass protection to pick a winner and Arizona is 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. VIFW Take – Lean Los Angeles

NFL – (275) KANSAS CITY at (276) PITTSBURGH 8:00 ET NBCKansas City picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times last week and Ben Roethlisberger was systematically picked apart by Philadelphia defense this past Sunday. Evidently the Steelers are expected to bounce back and have been elevated from -4 to -5.5 over the Chiefs. Pittsburgh is rock solid 14-4 ATS after permitting 30 or more points. VIFW Take - Pittsburgh covers

RecordsCollege Best Bets– 7-5College Leans - 14-10

NFL Best Bets - 6-6NFL Leans - 1-2

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES


15


VI Jim 23-16 (59%) 8-3 (73%)*

VI Jason 18-21 (46%) 7-5 (58%)*

VI Doug 17-22 (44%) 5-7 (42%)*

Power Ratings20-19 (51%)

Effective Strength 15-24 (38%)

Forecaster 13-26 (33%)

Bettors Ratings 19-20 (49%)

Consensus 16-23 (41%)

Thursday, September 29, 2016 - (105) CONNECTICUT at (106) HOUSTON (-28)Connecticut Houston Houston Connecticut Houston Connecticut Connecticut Connecticut

Friday, September 30, 2016 - (109) STANFORD at (110) WASHINGTON (-3)Washington Stanford Stanford* Stanford Stanford Stanford Washington Stanford

Saturday, October 1, 2016 - (125) KANSAS ST at (126) WEST VIRGINIA (-3.5)Kansas St* Kansas St West

Virginia

West

Virginia

Kansas St Kansas St West

Virginia

Kansas St

Saturday, October 1, 2016 - (143) W MICHIGAN at (144) C MICHIGAN (+3)W

Michigan*

W

Michigan

W

Michigan

W

Michigan

W

Michigan

C

Michigan

C

Michigan

W Michigan

Saturday, October 1, 2016 - (161) WISCONSIN at (162) MICHIGAN (-10.5)Wisconsin Wisconsin* Wisconsin* Michigan Michigan Wisconsin Michigan Wisconsin

Saturday, October 1, 2016 - (163) LOUISVILLE at (164) CLEMSON (-2)Clemson Clemson* Clemson Clemson Louisville Louisville Clemson Clemson

Saturday, October 1, 2016 - (177) TENNESSEE at (178) GEORGIA (+3.5)Tennessee* Georgia Georgia Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Georgia Tennessee

Saturday, October 1, 2016 - (193) ARIZONA at (194) UCLA (-13)Arizona UCLA Arizona Arizona Arizona Arizona Arizona Arizona

Saturday, October 1, 2016 - (201) OKLAHOMA at (202) TCU (+3.5)Oklahoma TCU TCU TCU TCU TCU Oklahoma Oklahoma

Saturday, October 1, 2016 - (213) UTAH ST at (214) BOISE ST (-19.5)Boise St Utah St* Boise St* Boise St Boise St Utah St Boise St Boise St

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

VI Jim says…IMO, one team has proven thus far that it is the class of the MAC in 2016, Western Michigan. With outright road wins at two Big Ten schools and 119 points in their other two victories, the Broncos obviously boast a strong resume at this point. Folks will argue that Central Michigan has been equally impressive with the win at Oklahoma State, but in truth, the Chippewas should have lost that game. At 2-2, CMU would be right where everyone expected them to be at this point. If anything, that win at Okie State probably bought anyone backing Western Michigan 2-3 points this week. Surprisingly, nearly 2/3 of the bets coming in at presstime were backing the home dogs here. I have a system that says those bets will lose big. It says to play on road teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG where the line is +3 to -3 after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The record of this is 30-8 ATS since 2012. Basically WMU is good, they are playing well, AND getting a favorable line.

VI Jason says…Louisville QB Lamar Jackson has been the talk of the college football world in the early going of the 2016 season, and his highlight reel is loaded, from the Florida State win alone. Now, he and the Cardinals face another huge test at Clemson, a team that shares the same ACC & national title aspirations as they do. The Tigers also boast a similarly explosive QB in Deshawn Watson. Can Clemson play Louisville tougher than FSU did? Absolutely! This is an entirely different game, being played in Death Valley, and the Cardinals will not be aided by the emotion they were when they whipped the Seminoles two weeks ago in the biggest home game in school history. This is the toughest defense Louisville will face this year, particularly against the run, so Jackson is going to have to show he can win this one with his arm. I don’t like those chances. Clemson is the more seasoned team and gets it done as a rare home dog.

VI Doug says…I figured Wisconsin could be in for long season by their standard in 2016. The offensive line had been weakened, the quarterback position was hardly set and the defensive lost their top young coordinator. Add it toughest schedule the Badgers have faced in a very long time and they looked to be in trouble. Funny how life works out, Wisconsin has two Top 10 victories for the first time in eons, the running game is returning to form and they have a hot-shot lefty freshman quarterback. Michigan has rolled over four opponents, all at home and finally takes on a team with more similar talent. With Wisconsin catching this many points, too good to pass up.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL VI PICKS

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Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season.

The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?103 KANSAS 80 27 20.9 UNDER 27.0 24.0 UNDER104 TEXAS TECH -28.5 47 -24.5 51.8 54.6 48.2 105 CONNECTICUT 50 35 7.6 12.2 15.1 CON106 HOUSTON -28 58 -25.8 42.1 HOU 36.7 35.5 107 TOLEDO 52 43 27.4 TOL 24.6 19.1 108 BYU -3.5 48 -8.3 BYU 25.0 29.4 31.1 BYU 109 STANFORD 44 60 24.2 OVER 21.8 22.7 OVER110 WASHINGTON -3 59 -2.0 26.5 24.4 26.8 111 BUFFALO 39.5 23 19.0 BUF 14.9 BUF 11.1 112 BOSTON COLLEGE -17.5 37 -13.3 31.3 OVER 25.9 28.9 113 MARSHALL 70.5 34 20.3 UNDER 29.6 OVER 23.6 UNDER114 PITTSBURGH -16 51 -20.5 PIT 42.9 PIT 47.2 39.0 115 MEMPHIS 66.5 48 29.8 MEM 25.6 24.4 116 OLE MISS -14.5 59 -14.5 35.7 39.8 41.2 117 TULANE -3 29 30.1 OVER 22.7 28.3 TUL118 MASSACHUSETTS 43 24 2.0 23.6 19.9 17.2 119 MINNESOTA 56 42 29.1 OVER 24.1 UNDER 23.3 120 PENN ST -3 44 -5.3 33.0 27.1 31.7 PST 121 NORTHWESTERN 43 43 12.8 13.5 UNDER 14.3 122 IOWA -13 51 -11.5 28.2 22.7 26.0 123 RUTGERS 58 36 5.8 10.9 16.5 RUT124 OHIO ST -38 67 -35.3 49.8 OHST 49.8 44.5 125 KANSAS ST 54 50 29.3 OVER 25.1 26.0 OVER126 WEST VIRGINIA -3.5 51 -5.3 29.7 28.5 33.6 127 VIRGINIA 60.5 40 21.8 UNDER 27.1 22.4 UNDER128 DUKE -3.5 42 -6.3 33.6 DUKE 32.4 30.3 129 NOTRE DAME -10 52 37.3 UNDER 37.0 UNDER 42.5 ND130 SYRACUSE 74.5 39 13.3 25.6 30.4 22.8 UNDER 131 SOUTH FLORIDA -6 48 33.8 34.5 31.3 132 CINCINNATI 59.5 42 2.3 23.5 27.4 31.9 CIN 133 SMU 52 32 19.4 22.6 SMU 19.1 134 TEMPLE -12 39 -14.5 29.1 27.9 32.5 135 OLD DOMINION -9 27 37.1 33.9 29.7 136 CHARLOTTE 58 16 8.5 25.3 24.6 28.4 CHA 137 MIDDLE TENN ST -16 39 35.9 35.6 40.5 138 NORTH TEXAS 62 23 12.8 26.1 NT 24.9 NT 24.9 139 UTEP 57 23 14.7 17.4 20.1 140 LOUISIANA TECH -19 37 -17.8 40.6 LT 37.2 35.8 141 FLA ATLANTIC -7 26 34.8 OVER 30.9 28.8 142 FLA INTERNATIONAL 52 19 4.3 24.7 22.9 24.8 143 W MICHIGAN -3 48 36.2 OVER 30.0 28.4 144 C MICHIGAN 55.5 42 3.0 30.0 28.7 28.8 145 N ILLINOIS 58 33 21.1 26.9 27.9 NIU146 BALL ST -4 31 -5.3 33.9 BST 30.7 24.5 UNDER 147 E MICHIGAN 66.5 23 33.3 EMU 33.2 29.9 148 BOWLING GREEN -3 25 -5.8 29.7 35.3 39.2 BGSU

149 OHIO U -2 33 31.6 OVER 28.1 30.6 OVER150 MIAMI OHIO 52 27 3.0 30.0 24.1 28.1 151 UCF 61.5 34 27.9 28.4 22.0 UNDER152 EAST CAROLINA -4 36 -6.0 29.8 31.6 32.9 ECU

VEGASINSIDER COLLEGE FOOTBALL STRENGTH RATINGS


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Football Weekly Football WeeklyBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?153 AKRON -7 33 36.3 OVER 29.9 26.3 154 KENT ST 54.5 29 0.5 KST 28.5 23.4 23.8 KST 155 PURDUE 56 38 PUR 24.2 OVER 23.0 27.7 OVER156 MARYLAND -10 41 -5.5 36.3 32.6 35.0 157 MIAMI FL -7 56 31.4 MIA 28.9 26.9 158 GEORGIA TECH 52 47 5.0 19.4 19.2 27.0 GT 159 ILLINOIS 54 37 14.2 17.5 19.9 ILL160 NEBRASKA -21 54 -20.8 39.5 38.3 34.8 161 WISCONSIN 44.5 55 18.0 OVER 19.7 17.0 162 MICHIGAN -10.5 63 -11.8 33.6 MICH 27.0 29.1 163 LOUISVILLE -2 64 33.6 LOU 34.9 28.3 164 CLEMSON 67 60 0.0 25.6 UNDER 30.2 37.5 CLM 165 NORTH CAROLINA 69 54 27.1 26.7 25.3 166 FLORIDA ST -11 60 -10.8 38.0 39.0 40.2 167 LA MONROE 55.5 22 11.0 19.1 LAM 6.8 UNDER168 AUBURN -32.5 54 -36.0 40.6 40.3 43.6 169 NAVY 47.5 39 26.9 OVER 22.5 20.6 OVER170 AIR FORCE -7.5 43 -8.0 30.0 26.8 35.0 AF 171 RICE 59 23 15.5 20.9 RICE 19.9 172 SOUTHERN MISS -24.5 41 -21.3 45.7 SM 37.8 40.8 173 WYOMING 55.5 28 23.8 25.5 24.5 174 COLORADO ST -6.5 30 -6.0 27.6 29.3 30.2 175 KENTUCKY 57.5 40 12.3 OVER 12.8 13.7 176 ALABAMA -34.5 67 -31.3 54.8 ALA 44.5 46.0 177 TENNESSEE -3.5 58 30.1 TEN 28.3 26.1 178 GEORGIA 53 52 4.5 20.9 24.5 24.1 179 GEORGIA ST 52 26 19.1 19.9 GAST 16.1 180 APPALACHIAN ST -18.5 42 -19.3 33.6 31.9 34.7 181 FLORIDA -10 52 29.5 OVER 28.6 OVER 27.8 182 VANDERBILT 41 43 6.0 18.5 17.9 17.5 183 UTAH 67 51 UTAH 28.8 UNDER 30.8 31.2 UTAH184 CALIFORNIA -2.5 46 2.5 28.7 34.8 27.8 UNDER 185 TEXAS 71 52 27.9 UNDER 36.6 27.0 UNDER186 OKLAHOMA ST -3 53 -4.0 35.0 37.1 35.5 OKST 187 OREGON ST 55.5 34 16.1 18.8 24.4 ORST188 COLORADO -17.5 49 -14.0 39.3 COL 33.6 32.1 189 WAKE FOREST 48.5 40 23.6 OVER 19.5 19.5 190 NC STATE -11.5 47 -10.5 34.1 30.0 29.6 191 TEXAS A&M -18 58 36.0 A&M 28.9 UNDER 32.1 192 SOUTH CAROLINA 48 43 12.3 SC 12.1 14.5 17.7 193 ARIZONA 58 48 21.0 24.3 26.3 ARI194 UCLA -13 53 -9.8 33.8 37.0 34.5 195 ARIZONA ST 64 47 28.4 AST 27.9 27.4 196 USC -10 52 -8.8 33.1 35.1 37.8 197 BAYLOR -17 57 36.6 UNDER 34.4 40.2 198 IOWA ST 60 40 13.5 18.8 25.3 IST 21.1 199 MICHIGAN ST -7 52 28.5 28.7 32.7 200 INDIANA 53.5 39 10.3 28.1 IND 24.4 22.8 201 OKLAHOMA -3.5 59 30.7 UNDER 35.8 37.9 202 TCU 69.5 53 1.8 33.2 TCU 32.8 31.9 203 MISSOURI 53.5 46 24.5 MIS 16.9 14.3 UNDER204 LSU -13 58 -15.3 28.5 32.2 32.5 LSU

205 SAN DIEGO ST -19 47 36.5 28.9 35.0 206 S ALABAMA 51 24 20.3 16.0 20.5 SAL 12.7 207 LA LAFAYETTE -4.5 27 35.0 34.9 33.5 208 NEW MEXICO ST 65 18 7.3 27.7 30.2 28.4 209 TROY -14 39 38.8 TROY 39.3 34.0 210 IDAHO 59.5 23 12.8 18.9 21.4 27.9 IDA 211 SAN JOSE ST 55 30 26.2 OVER 19.4 25.9 SJST212 NEW MEXICO -9.5 31 -7.0 38.7 31.5 27.2 213 UTAH ST 58.5 36 15.6 20.8 17.6 214 BOISE ST -19.5 52 -19.8 39.0 37.0 38.6 215 OREGON -2 50 32.3 UNDER 35.8 41.6 216 WASHINGTON ST 75.5 45 3.0 37.8 WAST 36.5 35.4 217 FRESNO ST 59.5 24 28.5 OVER 23.9 26.5 OVER218 UNLV -9 29 -8.3 36.4 31.7 37.8 219 NEVADA -3.5 33 32.2 NEV 29.1 31.6 220 HAWAII 58.5 23 7.3 23.6 27.1 25.6

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For every issue of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming college football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016(103) KANSAS at (104) TEXAS TECHKansas has not beaten Texas Tech in nine tries (4-5 ATS), last winning in Lubbock 34-31 in 2001 as then lucky 13-point underdogs. Though the home team has been the spread winner in past two, they are just 4-7 ATS going back to 2000. Hard to imagine any Texas Tech game that is not an Over, but the total is 5-4 UNDER since the Jayhawks last won.

(105) CONNECTICUT at (106) HOUSTONNow in the same AAC league, at least for the time being, Connecticut engineered a big upset of Houston last year in Stoors, winning 20-17 over Houston as eight-point underdogs. That was the Cougars lone defeat of the season and the reason the spread was so low is because QB Greg Ward Jr. was hurt and could not play. Expect it to be different this time, though the Cougs are 5-9-1 ATS as home favorites since 2014.

SEPTEMBER 30, 2016(107) TOLEDO at (108) BYUFirst-ever meeting for these two schools. BYU has played a very difficult schedule and yearns to join a conference now, as its independence has not been easy. This is Cougars second home game and the first against a non-Power 5 club and in Provo and they are 31-23 ATS as home favorites since 2006. Coming off bye week, Toledo is 11-3 ATS the last four years as road underdogs.

(109) STANFORD at (110) WASHINGTONOne of three extremely important conflicts in the Pac-12 North. Stanford has won three in a row and six of seven (4-3 ATS), but Washington is convinced this is their time. The Huskies are much improved and the home squad is 4-1 ATS. In the last dozen encounters, betting the Under has been quite profitable with a 9-3 record. The dog is 3-1 ATS.

OCTOBER 1, 2016(111) BUFFALO U. at (113) BOSTON COLLEGEThe year was 2006, that is when these Eastern-based universities collided and it was not pretty for Buffalo, white-washed 41-0 at Chestnut Hill as 32-point underdogs. The Bulls will not be close to as large an underdog with the Eagles so offensively inept. Buffalo has been at least an adequate underdog over the years at 27-24 ATS, with B.C. 23-20-1 ATS as home faves in same time span.

(113) MARSHALL at (114) PITTSBURGHHave to supply Marshall with some props, scheduling Louisville and Pittsburgh in back to back games. This is the Thundering Herd’s first away game and they are 7-8-2 ATS as road underdogs under coach Doc Holliday. Other than Villanova, the Panthers have also faced an aggressive schedule and has a big date with Georgia Tech next. Pitt is only 11-17-1 ATS out of conference since 2001.

(115) MEMPHIS at (116) MISSISSIPPIThis is always a much more meaningful game to Memphis, with the universities just 86 miles apart. Memphis won for the first time in 11 years last season, 37-24 as 10-point home underdogs. That was the Tigers first cover in four tries after posting 4-1 ATS mark. The home team has now beat the oddsmakers in four of the past five.

(117) TULANE at (118) MASSACHUSETTSTulane makes the trip from the Deep South to New England for their second road game of the season. The Green Wave are 22-22-1 ATS when playing out of conference the past 11 years and has another road contest on tap at Central Florida. Massachusetts now rolls as an independent and is playing fourth straight home tilt and is 2-2 ATS to conclude multiple home games in a row.

(119) MINNESOTA at (120) PENN STATEThese Big Ten matchups have not been all that frequent as this is the first in three seasons. The SU winner is 4-0-1 ATS looking back to 2005, with Penn State 3-1-1 ATS. The favorite has cashed three straight times, but the home team has not covered consecutive games since 2000. (There was a Push in 2006) The Under has gotten a slight nod at 3-2 lately.

(121) NORTHWESTERN at (122) IOWAFrom 2005-12, Northwestern had Iowa on the run with a 6-2 SU and ATS record. In the past three years it has been all Hawkeyes with a 3-0 SU and ATS mark, whipping the Wildcats in the last two by scores of 30 and 41 points respectively. In the past 11 meetings, it has been streaky, first with underdog 6-0 ATS and now the favorite on 5-0 spread move. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in last six.

(123) RUTGERS at (124) OHIO STATENobody saw this coming! Ohio State has run roughshod over Rutgers as Big Ten partners. Two years ago in Columbus the Buckeyes were 56-17 winners as 20.5-point favorites and last season in New Jersey, Ohio State could have checked out the Jersey shoreline by halftime in cruising to 49-7 thumping doling out 23 points. Do you expect anything different this year?

(125) KANSAS STATE at (126) WEST VIRGINIAThis series enters into its fifth conflict and if this does not explain the difference between Bill Snyder vs. Dana Holgorsen as coaches, not sure what does. Kansas State’s talent is not better than West Virginia’s, possibly a little worse. Yet K-State is 4-0 SU and ATS against the Mountaineers which speaks volumes. Given these outcomes, no surprise the UNDER is also 4-0.

(127) VIRGINIA at (128) DUKEVirginia backers finally were able to stop heading to the ATM machine after playing Duke last season. The Cavaliers won and beat the spread versus the Dukies, 42-34 as two-point home dogs. That ended a stretch of 0-7-1 ATS against Duke.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


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The underdog is up to 4-1-1 ATS recently, with the home squad sporting same record. The Over is 4-2.

(129) NOTRE DAME vs. (130) SYRACUSEFor this affair, we are headed to MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. After losing twice to Syracuse and having 0-3 ATS record, Notre Dame played the Orange two years ago at this same location and won 31-15 as 7.5-point favorites. That game was setup prior to the Irish becoming quasi-ACC members. The Orange will again be receiving points and the total is on 3-0 UNDER roll.

(131) SOUTH FLORIDA at (132) CINCINNATIFor Cincinnati to remain in AAC contention after losing to Houston, they have to take down South Florida. Besides the obvious motivation, the Bearcats were throttled 65-27 in Tampa last year as a single-point favorite. The teams are 3-3 ATS in last half dozen, but the home club is on 4-0 ATS move. The Over is 4-3 and it sure seems we will see another.

(133) SMU at (134) TEMPLEFirst time at Temple for SMU since 1946. The two competed last season and again in 2013 and the both games blew away the total. In 2015, the Owls flew away to 60-40 victory, doubling the listed total of 50. Two years hence, it was the Mustangs 59-49 with total of 58.5. Temple got both covers and goes after a third, this time in their building.

(135) OLD DOMINION at (136) CHARLOTTEThese are still FBS and C-USA newbies, learning the ropes in big time football. Their initial encounter was at Old Dominion and the Monarchs got a non-cover 37-34 victory as four-point home favorites. The scene shifts to Charlotte where the 49ers are 1-4-1 ATS at home, with ODU 4-9 against the number on the road.

(137) MID. TENNESSEE ST. at (138) NORTH TEXASFrom 2002-2010, the visitor had their way against the sportsbooks posting a 7-2 ATS record. That has not been the case in the past four with the home club 4-0 SU and ATS, winning by a whopping margin of 32.7 PPG. The favorite grabbed the cash in each of those and is 7-1 ATS in last eight. In those same eight matchups, the Over is 5-3.

(139) UTEP at (140) LOUISIANA TECHLouisiana Tech has dug up three W’s in a row over the Miners, but almost was caught snoozing in El Paso last year, escaping 17-15 as chalky 25-point road favs. That made UTEP 4-2 ATS in last six outings, all as underdogs. That lower scoring affair was the first of its kind in five games, as the Over was 4-0. Will the Bulldogs lift the home record to 4-2 ATS?

(141) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (142) FLORIDA INTER. These Sunshine State colleges started football programs one year apart back in 2001, with FAU going first. Since that time these two have been in the same conferences and annual battle has seen heated confrontations. FAU broke FIU’s four-year spread stranglehold with 31-17 win as two-point home underdogs. Prior to the FIU was 0-5 ATS. The dog is up to 3-0 ATS.

(143) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (144) CENTRAL MICHIGANThe first of three directional Michigan matchups in the MAC. This is really an exceptional matchup to begin conference action as both teams has excellent nonconference records and beating Power 5 opponents. The visiting squad has ripped

off four straight covers. The past two were as dogs, ending a dog drought of 0-6 ATS. Both have good defenses, however, the Over is 4-1 of late.

(145) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (146) BALL STATEInjuries and stunningly bad defense have hurt Northern Illinois in the early going and Ball State will try and take advantage of situation. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS since 2010 and Ball State will be out to not only stop the bleeding of money, but a seven-game losing streak to NIU. The home team is just 2-5 ATS during Ball State’s shortcomings.

(147) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (148) BOWLING GREEN As bad as Eastern Michigan has been all these years, they have at least been competitive form the sportsbooks perspective with 4-4 ATS mark versus Bowling Green going back to 2002. The Over and the road team have done better with each at 5-3 taking on the linemakers figures. Big moment for the now politically correct Eagles (was Hurons) was 24-21 upset at Bowling Green as 19.5 underdogs in 2008.

(149) OHIO U. at (150) MIAMI-ORather easy to see the ebb and flow of the this MAC rivalry. From 2000-05, Miami-O was 5-1 ATS. The next five years it was Ohio U. at 5-0 ATS and before last season the Redhawks had taken control at 3-0-1 against the spread. This has prevented many other trends from happening, except one, as the Under is 6-1 recently after 1-5 shift.

(151) CENTRAL FLORIDA at (152) EAST CAROLINAWith Central Florida crumbling apart in 2015, it was only East Carolina’s second cover in seven tries against the Knights. The Pirates were 44-7 winner’s as 16-point away favorites and that continued the alternation of fave/dog to six games. The road win made it two in a row after three non-covers and we also discovered the Over is 4-1.

(153) AKRON at (154) KENT STATEComing off rare bowl appearance, Akron has been either really good or really bad thus far in 2016. Kent State has not been easy to figure either in beating two FCS crews and facing Alabama. The Zips have 5-2 ATS record going back to 2009 and have made a contribution to the home team on 3-0 ATS streak. Points have been harder to come by with the Under 5-1.

(155) PURDUE at (156) MARYLANDFirst Big Ten tilt for these two schools and Maryland should be listed as smallish favorite. For wagering purposes that could work for Purdue who is 20-13 ATS as a conference away underdog, including 7-1 ATS the last two years. The Terrapins have not been good in the ACC or Big Ten as home favorites with 4-11 ATS league mark. One meeting, the 2006 Champs Sports Bowl with the Terps winning 24-7.

(157) MIAMI-FL. at (158) GEORGIA TECHAfter having their way with Miami from 2005-09 in assembling a 4-0 SU and ATS record, Georgia Tech has fallen on hard times. The Yellow Jackets have been stung with a 1-6 SU and ATS mark and will have to come through with big effort to lift home team to 4-0 ATS record of late. The favored crew is 5-2 ATS and Under has been winning ticket in three of four.

(159) ILLINOIS at (160) NEBRASKAIllinois scored a 14-13 upset in Champaign last

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season as a field goal underdog, making the home team 3-0 ATS in this brief Big Ten series. Nebraska covered the other two with ease, 45-14 and 39-19 in Lincoln as 21 and 8.5-point favorites respectively. It sure appears the Cornhuskers will get the money again in 2016. Not sure if the Under will make it to 3-1.

(161) WISCONSIN at (162) MICHIGANAfter these two Big Ten combatants met every year from 2005 thru 2010, they have not shown up on each other’s schedule since. Going back 16 years, Wisconsin had controlled this series from wagering point of view at 7-1-1 ATS. Most of the time the Badgers were catching points which is why the underdog is 6-2-1 ATS. The Over has hit four in a row.

(163) LOUISVILLE at (164) CLEMSONThis is the most anticipated contest of Week 5 and the stakes will be mammoth. Louisville wins this game and they control their destiny to the ACC title game and more. The Cardinals have given Clemson two rugged battles and covered the spread both times as dogs. You might imagine a lot of points, yet both previous connections ended up as Under’s.

(165) NORTH CAROLINA at (166) FLORIDA STATEWith all the expansion of the big boy conferences, hard to fathom that teams could possibly face off once in six seasons, yet this is the case in this ACC encounter. North Carolina won at Florida State 37-35 as 11-point underdogs in 2010. That provided the Tar Heels a 4-2 ATS record in last six, with the underdog 5-1 ATS in that span. Of note, the away outfit is on 5-0 ATS run.

(167) UL- MONROE at (168) AUBURNThis is the sixth even-year nonconference clash among the seven times they have hooked up since 2002. Every game has been at Auburn and the Tigers are 4-2 ATS, having been favored anywhere from 15.5 points all the way to 37. The oddsmakers have enjoyed a good read on this southern flavored get-together with the total at three apiece.

(169) NAVY at (170) AIR FORCEHaving won so many Commander-in-Chief trophies the last several years, Navy plotted that path to success with earlier season victories over the Air Force. The Midshipmen have been quite profitable also at 13-3-1 ATS looking back to 1999. It is easy to assume the Middies are always good, but the Air Force has quality clubs also, which explains the underdog at 9-3-1 ATS since 2003. The Under is 12-3.

(171) RICE at (172) SOUTHERN MISSThe last four conflicts have felt like scrimmages for both teams, each winning and covering twice. The average margin of victory has been unimaginable 31 points! The favored squad took each one and if you go back one more meeting, the fave is 5-0 ATS. With this kind of point differentials, it plays right into the Over being correct six consecutive times.

(173) WYOMING at (174) COLORADO STATEIt is the renewal of the “Border War”, which has been played every year since 1946, with the winner taking home the Bronze Boot. The Boot has resided at Colorado State the past three years, however, from betting perspective, it has been more than two decades since either has covered

three in a row and they are 9-9 ATS since 1998. The visitor is 3-0 ATS of late.

(175) KENTUCKY at (176) ALABAMAKentucky has never won in Tuscaloosa (0-9) and has two triumph’s in 37 contests. Neither will change this season either, however, the Wildcats are presentable 3-4 ATS reviewing events back to 1996. The home team is miserable 1-6 ATS and Kentucky got that one 40-34 in OT in 1997. The Over is 4-2 since the Crimson Tide’s last setback in series.

(177) TENNESSEE at (178) GEORGIATennessee has not been a favored in this annual rivalry since 2006, but at least they have managed a few wins, like last year in Knoxville 38-31 as 2.5-point underdogs. Actually, the Vols have been money for a decade at 7-2-1 ATS, which includes the past four straight. For total bettors, points has been where the action is at 5-1-1 Over.

(179) GEORGIA STATE at (180) APPALACHIAN STATEIn two games as Sun Belt members, Appalachian State has overwhelmed Georgia State with total scores of 81-3. Last season the Mountaineers won 37-3 in the Georgia Dome 37-3 as 14.5-point favorites and in 2014, the Panthers were on the short end of a 44-0 drubbing, with +11 points not close to enough for the visitor. Could be more of the same and the Under is 2-0.

(181) FLORIDA at (182) VANDERBILTIn this SEC showdown it is rather easy to surmise the home team is not nearly as mentally dialed in the opposing squad. The homey is on 0-8 ATS bender and only picked up the cash twice in the last dozen encounters. With Florida the bettor’s choice each time, that explains the alternation of spread winners and fave/dog scenarios. Last year’s 9-7 final broke a 9-1 OVER stretch.

(183) UTAH at (184) CALIFORNIAOff USC affair, Utah has to refocus to face the Bear Raid offense which looks capable of scoring 40+ points on anyone. Utah held California to 24 points at their joint last year, but did not beat the spread of -7.5 in 30-24 winner. The pooch is 4-2 ATS in six meetings, with one of those in the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl, taken by the Utes 37-27 as field goal underdogs.

(185) TEXAS at (186) OKLAHOMA STATEFor years, it was not uncommon for Texas to blast Oklahoma State with better talent. The Cowboys have leveled the playing field and even gained an edge as bettor’s pick with 4-2-1 ATS mark since 2008. However, the real story is wild 8-0-1 ATS record by the road outfit! What makes this more unusual is the away team has been favored in eight of those and is 7-1-1 ATS. The Under is 3-0 recently.

(187) OREGON STATE at (188) COLORADOThe depths of Colorado’s struggles in the Pac-12 are witnessed by the fact they only have beaten Oregon State one time in three tilts. It is not like the Beavers are a juggernaut and they have been favored in all three contests against the Buffaloes. Based on early season results, can Colorado finally turn the corner in the conference? At least they are 7-0 ATS as home faves under coach MacIntyre.

(189) WAKE FOREST at (190) N.C. STATEIt was exactly 10 years ago when Wake Forest left Raleigh as a winner on the gridiron. That was when


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the Demon Deacons were more off a force and were in the midst of a 5-0 ATS period against N.C. State from 2003-07. Since then, the Wolfpack have gotten the upper hand at 5-3 ATS. N.C. State’s victory last season ended a 8-0 ATS stranglehold the home team had enjoyed.

(191) TEXAS A&M at (192) SOUTH CAROLINAMaybe the SEC scheduling makes sense to those who follow it closely, but we are little perplexed these teams from different divisions are playing a third straight season. No matter, Texas A&M has won both games but split versus the sportsbooks. With the Aggies wins, that gives us a 2-0 combo pack on the visitor, underdog and the higher scores.

(193) ARIZONA (194) UCLAAfter registering a 4-0-1 ATS mark from 2007 to 2010, Arizona has come up drier than a small puddle on a sunny 115 degree day in Tucson, at 0-4 ATS to UCLA. In either case, the favorite has carried the action with a 7-1-1 spread record. In directing our attention to 2003, we discover the home team is 9-3-1 ATS, with the total is 3-3 in the past six.

(195) ARIZONA STATE at (196) USCUSC used to rule this Pac-12 conflict with 5-0 SU and ATS record from 2000-04, with the last four by 20 or more points. Arizona State has found the win column just twice since but has managed a 7-3-1 ATS record. Nothing to report on home/road possibilities but the underdog is just 1-4 ATS. The Under has been the winning ticket in four of past six.

(197) BAYLOR at (198) IOWA STATEIn this Big 12 joust, a couple patterns have been disrupted the last couple years. For example, after five straight covers by the home team, they had come up short in the last two. Similar results for the favored club who did not beat the spread last year, ending a string of six in a row. The last six totals have been 63.5 or higher and the total is 3-2 Over.

(199) MICHIGAN STATE at (200) INDIANAThe Spartans have won 11 of 12 versus Indiana and posted a 10-2 ATS record. It was 10 years ago when the Hoosiers last tasted victory over Michigan State and they did so in style, 46-21 as 6.5-point home dogs. You don’t need a degree in advanced mathematics to determine Sparty has been a frequent favorite, leading to the underdog at 2-9 ATS. The Over is rollin’ at 8-0.

(201) OKLAHOMA at (202) TCUWith the troubles Oklahoma has had, it is not hard to make a case for TCU to cover the spread a fourth straight time over the Sooners. The Horned Frogs have just two wins in six tries versus Oklahoma since 2005, but they have four covers. You would not think the Under would be 5-1 with these two squads, yet it is. TCU has not been favored in the past decade.

(203) MISSOURI at (204) LSUThis is the first regular season contest for these two SEC squads. Way back in 1978 that met in Memphis at the Liberty Bowl and Missouri won 20-15. In the last 11 years of the Les Miles era, LSU is rather pathetic 13-20 ATS as a home favorite. Missouri was 8-4 ATS under former coach Gary Pinkel in the SEC as a road underdog, thus new coach Barry Odom will try to keep up that pace.

(205) SAN DIEGO STATE at (206) SOUTH ALABAMASan Diego State passed two of its toughest tests in trying to put together a 12-0 season, but is a trickier one. The Aztecs were not mentally prepared for South Alabama a year ago and were caught off-guard, losing 34-27 as 17.5-point favorites. They are 4-0 ATS of late as road favorite, while the Jaguars are 3-8 ATS as home dogs the past five years.

(207) UL-LAFAYETTE at (208) NEW MEXICO STATENew Mexico State shocked ULL on the road in SBC play last season, being a 37-34 winner as 14.5-point pooch. The Aggies are trying to make it a 4-1 ATS run over the Ragin’ Cajuns, with a club that can score points. Going back to 2001, the away team is a sweet 6-1 ATS and the visitor has knocked down three straight covers. The Over is 5-2 overall.

(209) TROY at (210) IDAHOThird consecutive contest and fourth in the past 12 years. Idaho has only tallied 43 points in the three games, but the Vandals stole a win and cover last season at Veterans Memorial Stadium, 19-16, on the receiving end of 9.5 points. Troy is much improved this season, beating Southern Miss and pushing Clemson and we not see a third straight combo winner of road/dog/under.

(211) SAN JOSE STATE (212) NEW MEXICOSan Jose State avoided New Mexico its first two seasons in the MWC, but got them at home last year and handled the Lobos 31-21 as 7.5-point favorites. The Spartans football program has actually been to Albuquerque before, in 2006, winning the New Mexico Bowl 2012 as field goal underdogs. This makes it 2-0 for the Under in matchups.

(213) UTAH STATE (214) BOISE STATEUtah State had lost 12 in a row to Boise State, but last year ended the string of discontent with a resounding 52-26 beatdown as a touchdown underdog. The was the Aggies second spread winner in the last four years, yet they are still desultory 2-9-2 ATS since 1997. When checking out the totals, we uncover the total is 8-1-1 to the Over side.

(215) OREGON at (216) WASHINGTON STATEIt certainly appears Oregon has considered themselves superior to Washington State and that is true in theory, being a favorite for 11 consecutive years. But if it is the money you have been after, the Cougars have taken six straight times and eight of 11. Defense has not been a priority with these Pac-12 clubs, with Over 9-3 since 2003.

(217) FRESNO STATE at (218) UNLVIn the three years of being MWC competitors, the pooch has found the bone each time. That is the underdog has gotten the payout with a 3-0 ATS record. The first two times that was UNLV, once at home (30-27) and once on the road (14-38 catching 25 points). In 2015, the Rebels were rare road favorites and it showed, losing at Fresno State 31-28 handing out 5.5 points.

(219) NEVADA at (220) HAWAI’IWith the Rainbow Warriors program in a tailspin, Hawai’i has lost five in a row to Nevada (0-4-1 ATS). From 2008-10, the boys from the Islands more than held their own, covering three times and winning twice. The Wolfpack have been favored nine straight times and will try to build on 7-3-1 ATS record. The Under is off three wins in a row and five of seven.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(103) KANSAS [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (104) TEXAS TECH (-28.5 | 80) [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1]

SEPTEMBER 29, 2016 8:30 PM on FS1 - JONES AT&T STADIUM (LUBBOCK, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS 27.7 17 27-106 [3.9] 36-24-266 [7.4] 13.4 28.7 20 48-235 [4.9] 28-13-135 [4.8] 12.9 -7 -1.0 TEXAS TECH 61.0 33 31-131 [4.2] 53-37-548 [10.3] 11.1 43.3 28 41-207 [5.0] 41-26-325 [7.9] 12.3 0 +17.7

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS is 9-0 UNDER(L5Y) - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 35 PPG(CS)

(105) CONNECTICUT [SU:2-2 | ATS:0-4] AT (106) HOUSTON (-27.5 | 50) [SU:4-0 | ATS:3-0-1]SEPTEMBER 29, 2016 8:00 PM on ESPN - TDECU STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CONNECTICUT 21.2 21 42-139 [3.3] 30-20-215 [7.2] 16.7 22.5 18 31-119 [3.8] 31-18-262 [8.4] 16.9 -4 -1.3 HOUSTON (6) 44.8 27 54-223 [4.1] 33-22-274 [8.2] 11.1 10.5 10 25-37 [1.5] 30-18-192 [6.4] 21.8 +2 +34.3

Evidently football bettors cannot get enough money down fast enough on Houston, taking them from opening salvo of -24.5 all the way to -28.5. Yet, what stands in their way, Connecticut, who averages 21.2 PPG on offense? And the Huskies defense just allowed 31 points over 460 yards to Syracuse. UConn is 1-13 ATS off a home game. Houston also has the revenge angle, as it is the only game they have lost since the start of 2015 and they did not have Greg Ward Jr. at quarterback because of injury. Looking back, the Cougars appear capable of covering, 11-3-1 ATS handing out 20 or more points, but they are 3-4-1 ATS as home favorites under coach Herman.

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 8-1-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS)• CONNECTICUT is 1-6 ATS(L3Y) - On non-grass field• CONNECTICUT is 9-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less than 12.35

yards per point(CS)

(107) TOLEDO [SU:3-0 | ATS:3-0] AT (108) BYU (-3.5 | 52) [SU:1-3 | ATS:3-0-1]SEPTEMBER 30, 2016 10:15 PM on ESPN2 - LAVELL EDWARDS STADIUM (PROVO, UT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TOLEDO 42.7 23 44-230 [5.2] 29-17-334 [11.6] 13.2 10.0 11 36-121 [3.4] 25-11-131 [5.2] 25.2 -4 +32.7 BYU 20.8 22 35-165 [4.7] 39-23-219 [5.7] 18.5 22.0 20 34-121 [3.5] 33-23-261 [7.9] 17.4 +3 -1.2

GAME TRENDS• BYU is 6-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9 yards per

attempt(CS)

(109) STANFORD [SU:3-0 | ATS:2-0-1] AT (110) WASHINGTON (-3 | 44) [SU:4-0 | ATS:2-2]SEPTEMBER 30, 2016 9:00 PM on ESPN - HUSKY STADIUM (SEATTLE, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF STANFORD (7) 25.0 17 38-202 [5.3] 21-13-140 [6.8] 13.7 12.0 17 30-95 [3.1] 34-20-242 [7.1] 28.1 0 +13.0 WASHINGTON (10) 45.8 22 36-195 [5.4] 26-19-250 [9.5] 9.7 14.5 18 43-145 [3.4] 31-19-175 [5.6] 22.1 +9 +31.3

We have been waiting to find out just how good Washington is and we will find out on Friday night. The Huskies plowed through nonconference slate, but were pushed to OT by Arizona before winning. QB Jake Browning is going to have to maintain poise because Stanford defense is disruptive. On defense, the Huskies will watch tape of how UCLA slowed Christian McCaffrey and try and match it. One sour note, Washington is 0-7 ATS after road win without covering. Stanford showed grit in beating the Bruins and were very fortunate to get the cover on scoop and score on last play. The Cardinal figure to be a wise guy play as underdogs and they are 13-4 ATS since last year.

GAME TRENDS• STANFORD is 9-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS)• WASHINGTON is 8-16-1 ATS(L25G) - VS AP top 10• STANFORD is 7-0 OVER(L2Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per

carry(CS)






23


(111) BUFFALO [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (112) BOSTON COLLEGE (-17.5 | 39.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-2-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 1:00 PM - ALUMNI STADIUM (CHESTNUT HILL, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BUFFALO 17.7 18 39-181 [4.7] 29-15-162 [5.5] 19.4 26.7 22 55-291 [5.3] 19-12-110 [5.9] 15.0 -3 -9.0 BOSTON COLLEGE 20.5 14 40-168 [4.2] 22-11-159 [7.2] 16.0 20.8 13 37-91 [2.5] 24-12-145 [6.1] 11.3 -1 -0.3

GAME TRENDS• BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-0 UNDER(L2Y) - On non-grass field

(113) MARSHALL [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-1-1] AT (114) PITTSBURGH (-18.5 | 63.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-2-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:30 PM - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MARSHALL 42.7 23 40-160 [4.0] 34-19-273 [8.0] 10.1 41.3 23 36-155 [4.3] 36-20-324 [8.9] 11.6 +1 +1.4 PITTSBURGH 36.0 19 50-249 [5.0] 24-14-161 [6.7] 11.4 32.0 20 29-61 [2.1] 40-25-361 [9.1] 13.2 +4 +4.0

GAME TRENDS• PITTSBURGH is 1-6 ATS(L3Y) - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5 yards per

attempt(CS)

(115) MEMPHIS [SU:3-0 | ATS:2-1] AT (116) OLE MISS (-14.5 | 66) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:00 PM - VAUGHT HEMINGWAY STADIUM (OXFORD, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MEMPHIS 51.7 24 42-185 [4.4] 32-21-293 [9.1] 9.2 9.0 15 29-107 [3.7] 41-23-180 [4.4] 31.9 +8 +42.7 OLE MISS (16) 40.0 22 30-132 [4.3] 35-22-326 [9.3] 11.4 30.0 23 47-239 [5.0] 32-18-204 [6.3] 14.8 -4 +10.0

GAME TRENDS• MISSISSIPPI is 9-0 UNDER(L3Y) - In October

(117) TULANE (-3 | 43) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-1-1] AT (118) MASSACHUSETTS [SU:1-3 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM - WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUM (AMHERST, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TULANE 31.0 16 50-238 [4.8] 17-7-87 [5.2] 10.5 22.0 16 44-139 [3.2] 25-13-169 [6.6] 14.0 +7 +9.0 MASSACHUSETTS 17.5 16 33-69 [2.1] 32-18-209 [6.5] 15.9 27.5 21 38-174 [4.6] 34-21-231 [6.7] 14.7 -3 -10.0

GAME TRENDS• MASSACHUSETTS is 6-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or

more(CS)

• (119) MINNESOTA [SU:3-0 | ATS:1-2] AT (120) PENN ST (-3 | 56) [SU:2-2 | ATS:0-3-1]• OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM - BEAVER STADIUM (UNIVERSITY PARK, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MINNESOTA 39.7 24 45-228 [5.0] 26-17-202 [7.7] 10.8 25.0 20 38-119 [3.1] 36-21-229 [6.4] 13.9 +3 +14.7 PENN ST 29.0 18 33-101 [3.0] 29-18-237 [8.1] 11.7 32.8 18 43-214 [4.9] 28-18-174 [6.2] 11.8 -4 -3.8

GAME TRENDS• PENN ST is 0-7-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per play(CS)

(121) NORTHWESTERN [SU:1-3 | ATS:1-3] AT (122) IOWA (-13 | 43) [SU:3-1 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on ESPNU - KINNICK STADIUM (IOWA CITY, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTHWESTERN 16.2 19 34-108 [3.1] 35-19-239 [6.8] 21.4 17.0 25 40-177 [4.5] 39-25-257 [6.6] 25.5 +1 -0.8 IOWA 30.5 18 32-159 [5.0] 24-14-197 [8.0] 11.7 13.5 21 44-179 [4.0] 27-14-186 [7.0] 27.0 +5 +17.0

GAME TRENDS• NORTHWESTERN is 9-2 UNDER(L12G) - Before playing MICHIGAN ST


COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS






24




(123) RUTGERS [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2] AT (124) OHIO ST (-38 | 58) [SU:3-0 | ATS:3-0]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM - OHIO STADIUM (COLUMBUS, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RUTGERS 27.2 20 46-220 [4.7] 29-15-167 [5.7] 14.2 26.0 17 41-182 [4.5] 25-14-181 [7.2] 14.0 -2 +1.2 OHIO ST (2) 56.7 28 50-306 [6.1] 27-18-239 [8.9] 9.6 12.3 16 33-103 [3.1] 36-18-176 [4.9] 22.7 +9 +44.4

GAME TRENDS• RUTGERS is 10-3 UNDER(L5Y) - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.3 yards per

play(CS)

(125) KANSAS ST [SU:2-1 | ATS:1-0-1] AT (126) WEST VIRGINIA (-3.5 | 54) [SU:3-0 | ATS:1-1-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on ESPNU - MILAN PUSKAR STADIUM (MORGANTOWN, WV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS ST 37.0 18 36-198 [5.5] 24-14-169 [7.0] 9.9 11.0 10 28-72 [2.6] 20-11-107 [5.4] 16.3 +4 +26.0 WEST VIRGINIA 33.0 27 43-208 [4.8] 37-25-325 [8.9] 16.2 21.3 25 43-215 [5.0] 40-21-248 [6.1] 21.7 0 +11.7

Unless Texas wins out and frequently in convincing fashion, the only path still possibly left for the Big 12 to find a Final Four slot is 3-0 West Virginia. The Mountaineers have an impressive offense led by QB Skyler Howard, with good receivers who do catch his passes. West Virginia is a short home favorite for a number of reasons. It starts with defense permitting more than 460 yards a game, which can be pushed around on the ground and give up junks through the air. We don’t know for sure, but Kansas State might be better than we thought, especially on defense. Lastly, coaching, where Bill Snyder is 4-0 SU and ATS over Dana Holgorsen.

GAME TRENDSKANSAS ST is 8-1-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.25 yards per point(CS)WEST VIRGINIA is 0-6-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per carry(CS)KANSAS ST is 6-1 OVER(L2Y) - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(CS)

(127) VIRGINIA [SU:1-3 | ATS:3-1] AT (128) DUKE (-3.5 | 60.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:30 PM - WALLACE WADE STADIUM (DURHAM, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF VIRGINIA 26.2 23 29-130 [4.4] 40-24-280 [7.0] 15.6 32.2 22 40-176 [4.4] 34-21-306 [9.1] 15.0 -5 -6.0 DUKE 28.5 24 42-167 [4.0] 39-24-282 [7.3] 15.8 22.2 16 40-129 [3.2] 29-14-231 [7.9] 16.2 -2 +6.3

GAME TRENDS• DUKE is 5-1 UNDER(L2Y) - AT WALLACE WADE STADIUM

(129) NOTRE DAME (-10 | 74.5) [SU:1-3 | ATS:1-3] VS (130) SYRACUSE [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on ESPN - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NOTRE DAME 37.2 21 38-164 [4.3] 33-19-292 [8.9] 12.3 33.5 22 46-201 [4.4] 28-18-253 [9.1] 13.6 -3 +3.7 SYRACUSE 28.0 24 39-128 [3.3] 47-31-372 [7.9] 17.9 34.5 21 38-210 [5.5] 35-18-256 [7.4] 13.5 -2 -6.5

GAME TRENDS• NOTRE DAME is 9-3 UNDER(L12G) - Against weak rushing defenses yielding more than 5.0 yards

per carry(CS)

(131) SOUTH FLORIDA (-6 | 59.5) [SU:3-1 | ATS:3-1] AT (132) CINCINNATI [SU:3-1 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:00 PM on ESPNU - NIPPERT STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SOUTH FLORIDA 46.0 23 42-259 [6.2] 27-14-242 [9.1] 10.9 28.0 25 52-240 [4.6] 36-20-211 [5.8] 16.1 +3 +18.0 CINCINNATI 27.2 21 38-154 [4.0] 36-22-266 [7.4] 15.4 21.8 23 40-131 [3.3] 36-20-280 [7.8] 18.9 +4 +5.4

GAME TRENDS• SOUTH FLORIDA is 17-5 UNDER(L5Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 22

PPG(CS)








25


(133) SMU [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2] AT (134) TEMPLE (-12 | 51) [SU:2-2 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on ESPNN - LINCOLN FINANCIAL FIELD (PHILADELPHIA, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SMU 19.8 21 41-202 [4.9] 34-17-245 [7.1] 22.6 27.0 24 38-148 [3.9] 45-27-302 [6.7] 16.7 +2 -7.2 TEMPLE 31.5 17 32-127 [3.9] 29-16-219 [7.5] 11.0 20.5 19 45-181 [4.0] 23-11-146 [6.4] 16.0 +3 +11.0

GAME TRENDS• TEMPLE is 8-2 UNDER(L3Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)

(135) OLD DOMINION (-8.5 | 58) [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (136) CHARLOTTE [SU:1-3 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 1, 2016 6:00 PM - MCCOLL-RICHARDSON FIELD (CHARLOTTE, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OLD DOMINION 29.0 20 36-190 [5.2] 32-17-208 [6.6] 13.7 30.0 22 42-152 [3.6] 32-19-231 [7.2] 12.8 +6 -1.0 CHARLOTTE 25.0 19 37-167 [4.5] 38-20-205 [5.4] 14.9 42.2 25 33-163 [4.9] 37-24-324 [8.8] 11.5 +2 -17.2

GAME TRENDS• CHARLOTTE is 1-8-2 ATS(L2Y) - AS underdog of more than 7 points

(137) MIDDLE TENN ST (-16 | 62) [SU:3-1 | ATS:2-2] AT (138) NORTH TEXAS [SU:2-2 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:00 PM - APOGEE STADIUM (DENTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIDDLE TENN ST 39.5 26 33-174 [5.3] 48-31-367 [7.6] 13.7 25.5 21 42-186 [4.4] 36-19-200 [5.6] 15.1 +1 +14.0 NORTH TEXAS 26.0 20 37-153 [4.1] 33-17-180 [5.4] 12.8 30.2 21 45-235 [5.2] 29-15-206 [7.2] 14.6 0 -4.2

GAME TRENDS• NORTH TEXAS is 8-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or more(CS)

(139) UTEP [SU:1-3 | ATS:1-3] AT (140) LOUISIANA TECH (-19 | 57) [SU:1-3 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:00 PM - JOE AILLET STADIUM (RUSTON, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTEP 16.5 14 33-168 [5.1] 25-14-145 [5.8] 19.0 40.8 23 46-233 [5.0] 26-16-200 [7.7] 10.6 -4 -24.3LOUISIANA TECH 38.0 28 31-167 [5.3] 45-29-386 [8.5] 14.6 35.5 25 39-164 [4.2] 35-22-288 [8.1] 12.7 -4 +2.5

GAME TRENDS• UTEP is 8-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Conference games

(141) FLA ATLANTIC (-7 | 52) [SU:1-3 | ATS:0-4] AT (142) FLA INTERNATIONAL [SU:0-4 | ATS:0-4]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:00 PM - FIU STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FLA ATLANTIC 20.5 16 38-105 [2.8] 33-20-227 [6.8] 16.2 40.5 25 42-246 [5.9] 35-23-250 [7.1] 12.2 -2 -20.0FLA INTERNATIONAL 13.5 15 32-120 [3.7] 33-17-181 [5.5] 22.3 37.2 24 47-219 [4.6] 28-18-245 [8.8] 12.5 -5 -23.7

GAME TRENDS• FL ATLANTIC is 6-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Conference games







http://www.vegasinsider.com/handicappers/bios.cfm/hc/288/jim-mack

26




(143) W MICHIGAN (-3 | 55.5) [SU:4-0 | ATS:4-0] AT (144) C MICHIGAN [SU:3-1 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:00 PM on CBSSN - KELLY/SHORTS STADIUM (MOUNT PLEASANT, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF W MICHIGAN 43.8 25 50-245 [4.9] 25-17-223 [9.0] 10.7 20.8 15 31-108 [3.4] 27-17-221 [8.1] 15.8 +7 +23.0 C MICHIGAN 39.5 23 33-138 [4.2] 37-23-338 [9.1] 12.1 25.0 17 30-108 [3.5] 38-20-230 [6.1] 13.5 +1 +14.5

This is the best under the radar game of the day. Western Michigan is 4-0 and has two Big Ten road wins and Central Michigan is 3-1 and knocked off Oklahoma State in Stillwater. The Broncos average 245 yards rushing and nine yards per pass attempt and can move the ball on anyone except maybe Alabama, and that is a maybe. Central Mich. has covered 12 of 15 road assignments. The Chippewas will run, but they prefer to pass and average 338 YPG passing. Central Mich. is going to have to force turnovers to win, which they not in loss to Virginia Saturday and is 8-1 ATS after a game they generated one or less turnovers.

GAME TRENDS• W MICHIGAN is 7-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)• C MICHIGAN is 8-17 ATS(L25G) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards

per carry(CS)• W MICHIGAN is 5-0 UNDER(L3Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or more(CS)

(145) N ILLINOIS [SU:0-4 | ATS:0-4] AT (146) BALL ST (-4 | 58) [SU:3-1 | ATS:4-0]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - SCHEUMANN STADIUM (MUNCIE, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF N ILLINOIS 25.5 21 39-186 [4.7] 37-22-240 [6.5] 16.7 39.5 26 47-236 [5.1] 31-19-263 [8.5] 12.6 -2 -14.0BALL ST 30.8 24 46-221 [4.8] 34-20-215 [6.3] 14.2 23.0 18 33-99 [3.0] 35-22-268 [7.6] 16.0 -1 +7.8

GAME TRENDS• N ILLINOIS is 6-2 ATS(L8G) - AT SCHEUMANN STADIUM

(147) E MICHIGAN [SU:3-1 | ATS:3-1] AT (148) BOWLING GREEN (-3 | 66.5) [SU:1-3 | ATS:0-4]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:00 PM on ESPN3 - DOYT PERRY STADIUM (BOWLING GREEN, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF E MICHIGAN 36.5 21 42-183 [4.4] 33-20-258 [7.7] 12.1 29.5 22 37-107 [2.9] 38-22-261 [6.9] 12.5 +2 +7.0 BOWLING GREEN 15.2 19 37-138 [3.7] 41-22-208 [5.0] 22.8 55.2 26 45-230 [5.1] 34-22-327 [9.6] 10.1 -11 -40.0

GAME TRENDS• BOWLING GREEN is 12-2 UNDER(L5Y) - In October

(149) OHIO U (-2 | 53.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2] AT (150) MIAMI OHIO [SU:0-4 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 2:30 PM on ESPN3 - YAGER STADIUM (OXFORD, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OHIO U 36.8 25 46-218 [4.8] 41-23-272 [6.6] 13.3 31.5 19 34-132 [3.8] 33-23-251 [7.6] 12.2 +4 +5.3 MIAMI OHIO 20.5 21 38-115 [3.0] 29-16-276 [9.5] 19.1 31.0 21 37-169 [4.6] 31-19-227 [7.2] 12.8 +1 -10.5

GAME TRENDS• MIAMI OH is 5-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per

carry(CS)

(151) UCF [SU:2-2 | ATS:3-1] AT (152) EAST CAROLINA (-4 | 61.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on CBSSN - DOWDY-FICKLEN STADIUM (GREENVILLE, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UCF 32.2 23 53-236 [4.5] 29-15-201 [7.0] 13.6 23.8 16 39-132 [3.4] 31-16-175 [5.6] 12.9 -4 +8.4 EAST CAROLINA 29.2 25 35-156 [4.5] 42-31-368 [8.8] 17.9 27.8 16 35-162 [4.7] 27-16-236 [8.6] 14.3 -6 +1.4

GAME TRENDS• EAST CAROLINA is 3-13 ATS(L3Y) - Conference games








27


(153) AKRON (-7 | 54.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-3] AT (154) KENT ST [SU:1-3 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - DIX STADIUM (KENT, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF AKRON 40.0 22 26-129 [4.9] 34-23-323 [9.4] 11.3 40.2 28 47-200 [4.3] 38-26-329 [8.6] 13.2 -2 -0.2 KENT ST 19.0 13 41-140 [3.4] 24-13-126 [5.2] 14.0 31.8 22 41-166 [4.0] 35-20-199 [5.6] 11.5 -1 -12.8

GAME TRENDS• KENT ST is 7-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS)

(155) PURDUE [SU:2-1 | ATS:1-1-1] AT (156) MARYLAND (-10 | 56) [SU:3-0 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM - MARYLAND STADIUM (COLLEGE PARK, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PURDUE 29.7 26 36-177 [4.9] 44-26-317 [7.2] 16.6 25.3 21 42-169 [4.0] 34-21-219 [6.4] 15.3 -6 +4.4 MARYLAND 41.0 22 46-267 [5.8] 24-15-190 [7.8] 11.1 17.0 18 43-155 [3.6] 31-18-210 [6.7] 21.5 +5 +24.0

GAME TRENDS• PURDUE is 4-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against elite defensive teams allowing less than 17.5 PPG(CS)

(157) MIAMI FL (-7 | 51) [SU:3-0 | ATS:3-0] AT (158) GEORGIA TECH [SU:3-1 | ATS:1-1-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on ESPN2 - BOBBY DODD STADIUM AT GRANT FIELD (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI FL (14) 51.0 20 35-272 [7.7] 27-17-242 [9.1] 10.1 7.7 14 41-65 [1.6] 29-14-152 [5.3] 28.2 0 +43.3 GEORGIA TECH 24.2 17 44-217 [4.9] 14-6-112 [8.0] 13.6 14.2 19 32-121 [3.8] 34-22-226 [6.7] 24.4 0 +10.0

GAME TRENDS• GEORGIA TECH is 1-8 ATS(L2Y) - Against good teams with 60%+ winning pct(CS)

(159) ILLINOIS [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2] AT (160) NEBRASKA (-21 | 54) [SU:4-0 | ATS:3-0-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on ESPN2 - MEMORIAL STADIUM (LINCOLN, NE)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ILLINOIS 28.3 17 30-157 [5.2] 34-21-222 [6.6] 13.4 28.3 18 39-158 [4.1] 24-16-197 [8.1] 12.5 +1 0.0 NEBRASKA (15) 38.5 24 47-242 [5.2] 28-15-243 [8.7] 12.6 18.0 19 34-158 [4.7] 34-20-207 [6.1] 20.3 +6 +20.5

GAME TRENDS• ILLINOIS is 7-1 UNDER(L2Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS)

(161) WISCONSIN [SU:4-0 | ATS:3-1] AT (162) MICHIGAN (-10.5 | 44.5) [SU:4-0 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on ABC - MICHIGAN STADIUM (ANN ARBOR, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WISCONSIN (8) 30.8 23 47-184 [3.9] 28-18-226 [7.9] 13.3 11.8 14 25-80 [3.2] 30-16-196 [6.6] 23.4 +2 +19.0 MICHIGAN (4) 52.0 23 42-230 [5.4] 31-20-238 [7.6] 9.0 13.8 14 36-122 [3.4] 26-13-147 [5.6] 19.5 +4 +38.2

Wisconsin caught Michigan State at the perfect time and dominated them in all facets, proving LSU win was not a fluke and Georgia State squeaker was. The Badgers defense is more talented than most realize and they do not make mistakes in the front seven. Plus, we like we see from freshman QB Alex Hornibrook. Wisconsin is 5-2 ATS as Big Ten road dogs of late. Michigan is playing its fifth consecutive home game and has only been tested for just over a half against Colorado. The Wolverines by all appearances are complete team, but we find out more about them this week if they are as good offensively and defensively. Michigan is only 3-10-1 ATS against the Badgers since 1993.

GAME TRENDS• WISCONSIN is 16-5-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)• MICHIGAN is 5-15-1 ATS(L21G) - VS lower ranked team• MICHIGAN is 8-1 OVER(L2Y) - Conference games







28




(163) LOUISVILLE (-2 | 67) [SU:4-0 | ATS:3-0-1] AT (164) CLEMSON [SU:4-0 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 8:00 PM on ABC - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CLEMSON, SC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LOUISVILLE (3) 63.5 31 41-318 [7.8] 35-21-364 [10.5] 10.7 22.5 18 39-125 [3.2] 32-15-156 [4.8] 12.5 -3 +41.0 CLEMSON (5) 33.5 23 38-159 [4.2] 42-26-293 [6.9] 13.5 11.0 14 36-93 [2.6] 28-13-126 [4.5] 19.9 +3 +22.5

Far and away the most anticipated game of the day. Early betting action took Clemson from -3 to -2, as at the present time football bettors cannot get enough of QB Lamar Jackson and Louisville. The Cardinals have shown no weaknesses and it defense is holding opposing offenses an enormous 167 yards below their average. The ‘Ville is 12-2 ATS away versus teams with better than .666 win percentage. Clemson has gone from upstart to power and is now being challenged. The Tigers still have all the ingredients and coach Dabo Sweeney will remind his team they still have Deshawn Watson and outstanding offensive weapons, along with excellent defense. Still, Clemson is 3-7 ATS home favorite against ranked foes.

GAME TRENDS• CLEMSON is 9-2 ATS(L11G) - Before playing BOSTON COLLEGE• LOUISVILLE is 8-3 UNDER(L3Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)• CLEMSON is 7-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against big play passing teams averaging more than 8.3 yards

per attempt(CS)

(165) NORTH CAROLINA [SU:3-1 | ATS:2-2] AT (166) FLORIDA ST (-11 | 69) [SU:3-1 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on ESPN - DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM (TALLAHASSE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTH CAROLINA 41.2 22 27-137 [5.0] 36-27-334 [9.3] 11.4 30.0 22 48-240 [5.0] 27-16-184 [6.8] 14.1 0 +11.2 FLORIDA ST (12) 43.0 27 46-245 [5.3] 32-19-242 [7.5] 11.3 35.0 19 38-206 [5.5] 23-11-208 [8.9] 11.8 +6 +8.0

We have two ACC teams having issues stopping the run and this might be most important element in determining winner. North Carolina is tied for 118th in the country againsr the run at 240.3 YPG allowed. After conceding only 67 net rushing yards to Mississippi, Florida State has been run over for 252 YPG in their past three outings. Offensively, both teams can score from anywhere on the field and a high total is anticipated. The Seminoles have won seven of last eight in Tallahassee, but North Carolina has six covers. Florida State being at home should give them edge, yet the Tar Heels have great back door potential, but are 9-30 ATS after scoring 31 or more points in two straight outings.

GAME TRENDS• NORTH CAROLINA is 6-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less than 12.35

yards per point(CS)• FLORIDA ST is 3-9 ATS(L3Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or more(CS)• NORTH CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4

yards per carry(CS)

(167) LA MONROE [SU:1-2 | ATS:3-0] AT (168) AUBURN (-32.5 | 55.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on SECN - JORDAN-HARE STADIUM (AUBURN, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA MONROE 25.3 19 35-157 [4.5] 34-20-254 [7.4] 16.2 34.3 27 54-291 [5.3] 28-16-187 [6.7] 13.9 -2 -9.0 AUBURN 24.5 23 51-235 [4.6] 28-18-204 [7.2] 17.9 18.8 16 37-167 [4.5] 33-18-218 [6.7] 20.5 -3 +5.7

GAME TRENDS• AUBURN is 10-0-1 OVER(L5Y) - as favorite of more than 14 points

(169) NAVY [SU:3-0 | ATS:2-0-1] AT (170) AIR FORCE (-7.5 | 47.5) [SU:3-0 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on CBSSN - FALCON STADIUM (COLORADO SPRINGS, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NAVY 33.7 19 53-316 [6.0] 8-5-104 [13.0] 12.5 18.0 19 39-164 [4.2] 28-18-196 [7.0] 20.0 0 +15.7 AIR FORCE 37.3 25 68-359 [5.3] 11-5-127 [11.5] 13.0 18.3 15 26-52 [2.0] 36-18-263 [7.3] 17.2 0 +19.0

GAME TRENDS• NAVY is 10-2-1 ATS(L2Y) - VS Non-ranked team







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(171) RICE [SU:0-4 | ATS:1-3] AT (172) SOUTHERN MISS (-24.5 | 59) [SU:3-1 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:00 PM - ROBERTS STADIUM (HATTIESBURG, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RICE 18.2 18 39-171 [4.4] 33-18-162 [4.8] 18.3 39.2 24 49-239 [4.9] 28-17-296 [10.6] 13.6 -6 -21.0SOUTHERN MISS 41.2 24 46-248 [5.3] 34-20-236 [6.9] 11.7 19.8 11 32-109 [3.4] 23-11-145 [6.2] 12.8 -2 +21.4

GAME TRENDS• SOUTHERN MISS is 5-0 UNDER(L2Y) - Against poor teams with 40%+ winning pct(CS)

(173) WYOMING [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-3] AT (174) COLORADO ST (-6.5 | 55.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 10:15 PM on ESPNU - HUGHES STADIUM (FORT COLLINS, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WYOMING 31.5 21 43-182 [4.2] 26-16-216 [8.2] 12.6 33.8 20 38-146 [3.8] 35-20-296 [8.4] 13.1 -2 -2.3 COLORADO ST 25.2 21 43-196 [4.5] 28-14-176 [6.4] 14.8 27.5 21 42-149 [3.5] 29-20-261 [9.0] 14.9 -2 -2.3

GAME TRENDS• COLORADO ST is 7-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards

per play(CS)

(175) KENTUCKY [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-3] AT (176) ALABAMA (-35 | 57.5) [SU:4-0 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:00 PM on ESPN - BRYANT-DENNY STADIUM (TUSCALOOSA, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KENTUCKY 30.2 18 40-197 [4.9] 20-12-203 [9.9] 13.2 35.2 25 49-205 [4.1] 31-17-258 [8.3] 13.2 -6 -5.0 ALABAMA (1) 46.5 21 44-246 [5.5] 31-19-237 [7.6] 10.4 14.8 13 28-69 [2.4] 33-17-213 [6.4] 19.1 +2 +31.7

GAME TRENDS• ALABAMA is 7-0 UNDER(L2Y) - VS Non-ranked team

(177) TENNESSEE (-3.5 | 53) [SU:4-0 | ATS:2-2] AT (178) GEORGIA [SU:3-1 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM on CBS - SANFORD STADIUM (ATHENS, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TENNESSEE (11) 32.8 20 44-186 [4.2] 27-15-201 [7.5] 11.8 21.0 18 37-141 [3.8] 34-20-212 [6.2] 16.8 +2 +11.8 GEORGIA (25) 25.2 22 43-197 [4.5] 34-18-216 [6.4] 16.4 30.0 17 32-140 [4.4] 32-20-243 [7.5] 12.8 +2 -4.8

Tennessee is another team which has not played a start to finish contest, yet when the Vols hit next gear, both Virginia Tech and Florida were powerless to stop them. When QB Joshua Dobbs starts hitting passes, the Tennessee offense is all but unstoppable. The Volunteers are going through a hellacious 4-game stretch in the SEC, but if they win this week, even a split in the next two games all but assures a seat in the conference title game. The Orange and White are 18-5 ATS as a road favorite of seven or less. Georgia was in ambush spot at Mississippi and were dismantled. The Bulldogs were thought to be 3-0 frauds and were exposed with QB Jacob Eason looking like freshman.

GAME TRENDS• TENNESSEE is 5-1-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against good teams with 70%+ winning pct(CS)• GEORGIA is 1-7 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or more(CS)• GEORGIA is 7-0 UNDER(L3Y) - Against good teams with 70%+ winning pct(CS)

(179) GEORGIA ST [SU:0-3 | ATS:1-2] AT (180) APPALACHIAN ST (-18.5 | 52) [SU:2-2 | ATS:3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on ESPN3 - KIDD BREWER STADIUM (BOONE, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GEORGIA ST 17.3 12 21-46 [2.2] 32-18-202 [6.2] 14.3 34.0 26 61-325 [5.3] 23-12-137 [6.0] 13.6 +2 -16.7APPALACHIAN ST 24.8 21 47-212 [4.5] 24-15-172 [7.0] 15.5 27.5 21 33-145 [4.4] 34-21-275 [8.1] 15.3 +2 -2.7

GAME TRENDS• GEORGIA ST is 10-1 ATS(L5Y) - AS underdog of more than 20 points







30




(181) FLORIDA (-10 | 41) [SU:3-1 | ATS:1-3] AT (182) VANDERBILT [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on SECN - VANDERBILT STADIUM (NASHVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FLORIDA (23) 32.2 23 38-178 [4.7] 36-22-272 [7.5] 14.0 13.0 13 36-76 [2.1] 21-8-145 [6.8] 17.0 +3 +19.2 VANDERBILT 23.8 17 40-149 [3.7] 28-15-164 [5.9] 13.2 26.2 22 33-178 [5.4] 38-21-275 [7.2] 17.3 +5 -2.4

GAME TRENDS• VANDERBILT is 11-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS)

(183) UTAH [SU:4-0 | ATS:2-2] AT (184) CALIFORNIA (-2.5 | 67) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 6:00 PM on PAC12 - CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUM (BERKELEY, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTAH (18) 27.2 22 41-173 [4.3] 31-20-254 [8.1] 15.7 15.8 16 31-132 [4.3] 31-17-182 [5.9] 19.9 +1 +11.4 CALIFORNIA 45.5 28 33-135 [4.0] 55-34-459 [8.3] 13.1 42.5 26 46-263 [5.7] 31-19-228 [7.3] 11.6 +1 +3.0

GAME TRENDS• UTAH is 15-4 OVER(L22G) - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more than

13.5 points per game(CS)

(185) TEXAS [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1] AT (186) OKLAHOMA ST (-3 | 71) [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on ABC - BOONE PICKENS STADIUM (STILLWATER, OK)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS (22) 44.7 28 52-238 [4.6] 31-21-262 [8.4] 11.2 34.7 19 42-151 [3.6] 30-19-236 [7.8] 11.2 -3 +10.0 OKLAHOMA ST 39.2 25 37-128 [3.4] 43-26-339 [7.8] 11.9 27.5 19 41-145 [3.6] 28-16-273 [9.6] 15.2 +1 +11.7

Oklahoma State did not figure to be 2-2 at this juncture of the season and with Oklahoma not nearly as good as advertised, if the Cowboys lose at home to Texas, there might be an Alamo Bowl in their future, which is not what they are playing for. Okie State is making too many mistakes on offense and is playing - hope defense - as in they hope they can stop the other team, ranked 87th in total defense and 107th against the pass. Texas had a week to regroup from loss at Cal and should be raring to go. The Longhorns offense will move the chains, just a matter if the defense can slow Cowboys passing. Texas is 7-2 ATS at Stillwater.

GAME TRENDS• OKLAHOMA ST is 18-5-2 ATS(L25G) - as favorite of 7 or less points• TEXAS is 2-5-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per

carry(CS)• OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 OVER(L2Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS)

(187) OREGON ST [SU:1-2 | ATS:2-1] AT (188) COLORADO (-15 | 55.5) [SU:3-1 | ATS:4-0]OCTOBER 1, 2016 2:30 PM on PAC12 - FOLSOM FIELD (BOULDER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OREGON ST 28.0 17 37-144 [3.9] 35-21-197 [5.7] 12.2 25.0 22 37-187 [5.0] 37-20-198 [5.3] 15.4 +4 +3.0 COLORADO 42.2 27 49-211 [4.3] 32-21-312 [9.6] 12.4 24.2 16 34-145 [4.3] 33-17-161 [4.9] 12.6 +2 +18.0

GAME TRENDS• OREGON ST is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per

play(CS)

(189) WAKE FOREST [SU:4-0 | ATS:2-2] AT (190) NC STATE (-11.5 | 49.5) [SU:2-1 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 3:30 PM - CARTER-FINLEY STADIUM (RALEIGH, NC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WAKE FOREST 25.5 18 48-200 [4.2] 23-13-149 [6.4] 13.7 16.5 17 33-88 [2.7] 34-19-250 [7.2] 20.5 +5 +9.0 NC STATE 42.3 25 42-211 [5.0] 31-24-285 [9.1] 11.7 23.0 16 31-109 [3.5] 30-20-202 [6.8] 13.5 +1 +19.3

GAME TRENDS• NC STATE is 5-1 OVER(L2Y) - AT CARTER-FINLEY STADIUM








31


(191) TEXAS A&M (-18 | 48) [SU:4-0 | ATS:4-0] AT (192) SOUTH CAROLINA [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 4:00 PM on SECN - WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUM (COLUMBIA, SC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS A&M (9) 43.0 25 38-269 [7.0] 38-20-276 [7.2] 12.7 16.0 23 40-128 [3.2] 41-22-262 [6.4] 24.4 +2 +27.0 SOUTH CAROLINA 14.2 15 31-91 [3.0] 32-17-192 [6.0] 19.9 17.2 24 42-198 [4.7] 32-21-201 [6.2] 23.2 +3 -3.0

This sure appears to be a real mismatch, with Texas A&M 4-0 SU and ATS, nevertheless, with games against Tennessee and Alabama on tap, could be flat spot for the Aggies. Texas A&M is better than many thought for two reasons. Trevor Knight is the perfect quarterback for this team, bringing maturity, talent and work ethic for others to follow. DC John Chavis finally has the speed and ability he needs to run defense, but they are 3-14 ATS after the first month of the season the past two years. South Carolina is only surrendering 17.2 PPG, but is tallying putrid 14.2 PPG. The Gamecocks are 7-3 ATS a home dog against ranked opponent, but that was with better coach.

GAME TRENDS• TEXAS A&M is 6-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser offensive teams averaging less than 5.0 yards per

play(CS)• SOUTH CAROLINA is 1-4 ATS(L2Y) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards

per carry(CS)• SOUTH CAROLINA is 8-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Conference games

(193) ARIZONA [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-3] AT (194) UCLA (-13.5 | 58) [SU:2-2 | ATS:0-3-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 10:30 PM on ESPN - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA 30.5 22 41-248 [6.0] 28-17-209 [7.5] 15.0 25.5 25 43-198 [4.6] 34-22-256 [7.5] 17.8 +4 +5.0 UCLA 24.0 23 37-118 [3.2] 38-23-294 [7.7] 17.2 22.0 20 34-152 [4.4] 37-18-196 [5.3] 15.8 +1 +2.0

Two Pac-12 clubs coming off bitter disappointments and the first to get over it should cover the number. UCLA had Stanford beat for 59 minutes and 25 seconds and then it all fell apart. If you had the Bruins +3, it was the first really bad beat of the season. Arizona has Washington on the ropes all night but could never put them away, falling in OT. The Wildcats are running out of RB’s due to injury and QB Brandon Hawkins does not appear consistent enough to wing it all the time for team that is 3-6-1 in Pasadena. UCLA receivers have to catch Josh Rosen’s tosses, otherwise, they could fall to 4-12 ATS in first half of season since 2014.

GAME TRENDS• UCLA is 19-10-1 UNDER(L3Y) - All Games• ARIZONA is 1-4 ATS(L7G) - Before playing UTAH• UCLA is 11-3 UNDER(L3Y) - AT ROSE BOWL

(195) ARIZONA ST [SU:4-0 | ATS:3-1] AT (196) USC (-10 | 64) [SU:1-3 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 1, 2016 8:30 PM on FOX - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA ST 48.8 27 49-236 [4.8] 31-21-271 [8.7] 10.4 34.2 22 31-95 [3.1] 45-28-404 [9.0] 14.6 -1 +14.6 USC 22.0 20 33-143 [4.3] 34-22-216 [6.4] 16.3 29.2 19 41-193 [4.7] 26-17-201 [7.6] 13.5 -1 -7.2

GAME TRENDS• USC is 6-1 UNDER(L7G) - Before playing COLORADO

(197) BAYLOR (-17 | 60) [SU:4-0 | ATS:1-3] AT (198) IOWA ST [SU:1-3 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 12:00 PM on FS1 - JACK TRICE STADIUM (AMES, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BAYLOR (13) 42.0 26 47-245 [5.2] 37-21-303 [8.3] 13.0 13.5 18 44-167 [3.8] 34-14-142 [4.2] 22.9 +2 +28.5 IOWA ST 21.8 18 35-125 [3.6] 32-18-238 [7.5] 16.7 29.5 23 44-209 [4.7] 30-17-195 [6.5] 13.7 -1 -7.7

GAME TRENDS• IOWA ST is 2-10 ATS(L5Y) - AS underdog of more than 14 points






32




(199) MICHIGAN ST (-7 | 53.5) [SU:2-1 | ATS:1-2] AT (200) INDIANA [SU:2-1 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 8:00 PM on BTN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MICHIGAN ST (17) 23.3 21 40-169 [4.3] 29-17-227 [7.8] 17.0 23.7 17 33-89 [2.7] 31-17-226 [7.2] 13.3 -1 -0.4 INDIANA 30.7 23 43-186 [4.4] 34-21-334 [9.7] 16.9 22.0 18 36-128 [3.5] 35-18-224 [6.3] 16.0 0 +8.7

GAME TRENDS• INDIANA is 9-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards per

attempt(CS)

(201) OKLAHOMA (-3.5 | 69.5) [SU:1-2 | ATS:0-3] AT (202) TCU [SU:3-1 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 1, 2016 5:00 PM on FOX - AMON CARTER STADIUM (FORT WORTH, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA 35.3 22 36-179 [5.0] 34-22-300 [8.9] 13.6 31.7 21 39-153 [3.9] 32-20-248 [7.7] 12.6 -3 +3.6 TCU (21) 42.8 27 34-196 [5.7] 47-31-380 [8.0] 13.5 26.2 19 39-130 [3.3] 33-18-254 [7.8] 14.7 -2 +16.6

Both these Big 12 clubs are out to right the ship and this will be a telling week for both. Oklahoma had a much needed week off more to mentally regroup than physically and has to find defensive answers swiftly or season could really go down the tubes for Sooners. QB Baker Mayfield has shown less poise and reverted back to Texas Tech days of playing without discipline. Oklahoma is 11-3 ATS having lost two of three. TCU fans are flustered as well, as the Horned Frogs are a third of the way through season and have yet to play hard all four quarters. However, since 2014, TCU is 6-0 ATS at home after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games.

GAME TRENDS• TCU is 9-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong rushing teams averaging more than 4.7 yards per carry(CS)• OKLAHOMA is 3-9 ATS(L5Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.35 yards per

carry(CS)• OKLAHOMA is 7-1 OVER(L3Y) - In October

(203) MISSOURI [SU:2-2 | ATS:3-1] AT (204) LSU (-13 | 53.5) [SU:2-2 | ATS:0-4]OCTOBER 1, 2016 7:30 PM on SECN - TIGER STADIUM (BATON ROUGE, LA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MISSOURI 44.5 27 40-178 [4.4] 42-26-391 [9.2] 12.8 18.8 19 39-132 [3.3] 41-22-236 [5.7] 19.6 +2 +25.7 LSU 21.0 17 34-192 [5.6] 25-13-148 [6.0] 16.2 16.8 17 39-116 [3.0] 31-18-225 [7.3] 20.3 -1 +4.2

This SEC contest takes on a different flavor with Les Miles out and Ed Orgeron in at LSU. Not sure what Orgeron can do to fix offense with quarterback limitations. Maybe a quick-throw passing game at seven to 10 yards, yet, this still is mostly dependent on accuracy of passes. It is abundantly clear the Tigers can no longer just lineup and run over people and are 14-24 ATS versus team averaging 6.25 or more yards a play. The Missouri defense has not been as strong as many thought it would be, but the offense ranks a surprising third in the country in passing at 391 YPG. This could give the Tigers a chance at 9-1 ATS after one or more OVER’s.

GAME TRENDS• MISSOURI is 7-1 ATS(L3Y) - On grass field• LSU is 1-6 ATS(L2Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.35 yards per carry(CS)• MISSOURI is 10-1 UNDER(L2Y) - VS Non-ranked team

(205) SAN DIEGO ST (-19 | 52) [SU:3-0 | ATS:1-1-1] AT (206) S ALABAMA [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 1, 2016 8:00 PM on ESPNN - LADD-PEEBLES STADIUM (MOBILE, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN DIEGO ST (19) 39.3 21 44-261 [5.9] 23-14-182 [8.0] 11.3 22.7 20 31-103 [3.3] 43-22-271 [6.4] 16.5 +4 +16.6 S ALABAMA 23.5 20 34-112 [3.3] 39-22-282 [7.2] 16.8 28.0 19 44-240 [5.5] 21-14-151 [7.0] 14.0 -1 -4.5

GAME TRENDS• SAN DIEGO ST is 8-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 15.3 yards

per point(CS)







33


(207) LA LAFAYETTE (-4.5 | 64) [SU:2-2 | ATS:3-1] AT (208) NEW MEXICO ST [SU:1-3 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 8:00 PM on ESPN3 - AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUM (LAS CRUCES, NM)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LA LAFAYETTE 26.8 19 45-173 [3.9] 29-18-213 [7.2] 14.4 32.8 22 41-115 [2.8] 34-22-284 [8.4] 12.2 -3 -6.0 NEW MEXICO ST 25.5 23 36-139 [3.9] 41-21-283 [6.9] 16.5 45.8 26 46-274 [5.9] 28-18-235 [8.4] 11.1 -1 -20.3

GAME TRENDS• NEW MEXICO ST is 8-0-1 OVER(L2Y) - On grass field

(209) TROY (-14 | 59.5) [SU:3-1 | ATS:3-1] AT (210) IDAHO [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-3]OCTOBER 1, 2016 5:00 PM on ESPN3 - COWAN SPECTRUM AT KIBBIE DOME (MOSCOW, ID)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TROY 42.5 24 41-229 [5.5] 36-23-244 [6.7] 11.1 21.0 20 34-117 [3.5] 45-23-290 [6.4] 19.4 +7 +21.5 IDAHO 18.2 17 35-134 [3.8] 33-17-193 [5.9] 18.0 40.5 25 38-207 [5.4] 35-22-250 [7.2] 11.3 -3 -22.3

GAME TRENDS• IDAHO is 10-0 OVER(L5Y) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or more(CS)

(211) SAN JOSE ST [SU:1-3 | ATS:0-3] AT (212) NEW MEXICO (-9.5 | 56) [SU:1-2 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 4:00 PM - UNIVERSITY STADIUM (ALBUQUERQUE, NM)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN JOSE ST 25.8 21 42-174 [4.1] 29-16-218 [7.5] 15.2 39.5 22 42-224 [5.3] 27-17-258 [9.6] 12.2 -1 -13.7NEW MEXICO 35.7 23 50-314 [6.3] 22-13-157 [7.1] 13.2 30.0 17 37-154 [4.2] 28-16-173 [6.1] 10.9 -1 +5.7

GAME TRENDS• NEW MEXICO is 4-1 OVER(L2Y) - As favorite

(213) UTAH ST [SU:2-2 | ATS:2-2] AT (214) BOISE ST (-19.5 | 58) [SU:3-0 | ATS:1-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 10:15 PM on ESPN2 - ALBERTSONS STADIUM (BOISE, ID)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTAH ST 26.5 19 37-179 [4.8] 32-19-203 [6.3] 14.4 24.5 19 42-142 [3.4] 27-17-195 [7.1] 13.8 +1 +2.0 BOISE ST (24) 38.0 25 35-184 [5.2] 36-21-321 [9.0] 13.3 20.7 20 32-72 [2.3] 46-33-286 [6.2] 17.3 -3 +17.3

Boise State did not cover against either Pac-12 opponent they faced and open league play trying to fix a few elements in chasing at least a Super Six bowl game. The Broncos largely dominated both Washington State and Oregon State, nonetheless, they committed five turnovers, which could be their undoing against the wrong team. Case in point, Boise State made eight miscues at Logan last season and was slaughtered by Utah State 52-26, which ended their 12-game winning streak against the Aggies. Utah State out-gained the Air Force by 88 yards, but had a -2 turnover margin and fell 27-20 to the Falcons. The Aggies are going to have to be near perfect in Boise, where they are 0-7 and 1-5-1 ATS.

GAME TRENDS• UTAH ST is 7-2 ATS(L3Y) - In October• BOISE ST is 4-11 ATS(L5Y) - As ranked team VS non-ranked team• UTAH ST is 6-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)

(215) OREGON (-1 | 75) [SU:2-2 | ATS:0-3-1] AT (216) WASHINGTON ST [SU:1-2 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 9:30 PM on PAC12 - MARTIN STADIUM (PULLMAN, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OREGON 41.8 22 43-275 [6.4] 29-19-260 [8.9] 12.8 32.5 26 43-193 [4.5] 38-22-258 [6.7] 13.9 +3 +9.3 WASHINGTON ST 42.0 28 27-122 [4.6] 56-41-393 [7.1] 12.3 27.3 21 27-103 [3.8] 38-25-325 [8.6] 15.7 +3 +14.7

GAME TRENDS• OREGON is 12-2 ATS(L14G) - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 8.3 yards per

attempt(CS)







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(217) FRESNO ST [SU:1-3 | ATS:1-2] AT (218) UNLV (-10 | 61.5) [SU:1-3 | ATS:2-2]OCTOBER 1, 2016 10:30 PM on CBSSN - SAM BOYD STADIUM (LAS VEGAS, NV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FRESNO ST 24.8 18 35-115 [3.3] 39-20-249 [6.4] 14.7 36.5 22 52-262 [5.1] 24-13-194 [7.9] 12.5 -2 -11.7UNLV 33.8 20 41-250 [6.0] 27-13-170 [6.3] 12.4 33.0 23 36-151 [4.2] 38-19-256 [6.7] 12.3 -1 +0.8

GAME TRENDS• UNLV is 4-0 OVER(L5Y) - as favorite of more than 7 points

(219) NEVADA (-3.5 | 59) [SU:2-2 | ATS:1-3] AT (220) HAWAII [SU:1-3 | ATS:2-1]OCTOBER 1, 2016 11:59 PM - ALOHA STADIUM (HONOLULU, HI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2016 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEVADA 23.0 21 40-173 [4.3] 27-17-186 [6.9] 15.6 26.0 21 49-255 [5.2] 23-13-174 [7.5] 16.5 +5 -3.0 HAWAII 25.8 20 37-168 [4.5] 30-15-212 [7.1] 14.7 49.2 26 41-264 [6.4] 30-21-271 [9.0] 10.9 -5 -23.4

GAME TRENDS• NEVADA is 9-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)




Most college football teams already have four games under their belts for the 2016 season, meaning a reasonable picture can be painted of them at this point. Conference and national champion contenders can easily be recognized, as can those teams that are headed for dreadful seasons. Of course there are many in between too. We’re here today to take a look at the teams on the extreme ends of several key statistical categories, and to try and find out whether or not they are still worthy of our betting consideration the rest of the way or if oddsmakers have enough info at this point so as to have caught up.

The statistics we have used to designate our EXTREME teams are offensive & defensive points per game (PPG), offensive & defensive yards

per play (YPP), points per game differential, and yards per play differential. What we have done is take the last five years statistics after four weeks and noted the teams that have displayed extreme statistical results in these categories. We then went and pulled their game logs for their remaining games of that season to see if we could find any consistent winning or losing wagering

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35


TEAM DESCRIPTIVE (after 4 weeks) Type 2016 TeamsBetter than 54.0 PPG Offensively Good 53-24 (68.8%) 34-41 (45.3%) Louisville, Texas Tech, Ohio StWorse than 11.0 PPG Offensively Bad 13-58 (18.3%) 27-44 (38.0%) NONEBetter than 8.00 YPP Offensively Good 61-26 (70.1%) 39-46 (45.9%) Louisville, Miami FL, Texas TechWorse than 4.00 YPP Offensively Bad 17-68 (20.0%) 36-49 (42.4%) Texas St UnivBetter than 9.0 PPG Defensively Good 75-42 (64.1%) 58-57 (50.4%) Miami FL, MemphisWorse than 45.0 PPG Defensively Bad 31-55 (36.0%) 47-38 (55.3%) Bowling Green, Texas St Univ, Hawaii, New Mexico StBetter than 3.50 YPP Defensively Good 96-53 (64.4%) 68-77 (46.9%) Miami FL, ClemsonWorse than 7.70 YPP Defensively Bad 28-59 (32.2%) 43-42 (50.6%) NONEBetter than 37.0 PPG Differential Good 74-26 (74.0%) 45-53 (45.9%) Ohio St, Miami FL, Memphis, Louisville, MichiganWorse than 27.0 PPG Differential Bad 14-62 (18.4%) 34-41 (45.3%) Bowling Green, Texas St UnivBetter than 3.50 YPP Differential Good 62-18 (77.5%) 39-41 (48.8%) Miami FL, Louisville, ToledoWorse than 2.80 YPP Differential Bad 15-29 (34.1%) 25-19 (56.8%) Texas St Univ4 Good Extreme Statistical Traits 42-9 (82.4%) 26-25 (51.0%) Louisville, Miami FL (5)4 Bad Extreme Statistical Traits 1-8 (11.1%) 4-5 (44.4%) Texas St Univ3 Good Extreme Statistical Traits 24-14 (63.2%) 15-23 (39.5%) NONE3 Bad Extreme Statistical Traits 9-42 (17.6%) 23-27 (46.0%) NONE2 Good Extreme Statistical Traits 25-20 (55.6%) 18-24 (42.9%) Ohio St, Texas Tech, Memphis2 Bad Extreme Statistical Traits 19-32 (37.3%) 30-21 (58.8%) Bowling Green1 Good Extreme Statistical Trait 123-69 (64.1%) 95-91 (51.1%) Michigan, Toledo, Clemson1 Bad Extreme Statistical Trait 49-109 (31.0%) 67-89 (42.9%) Hawaii, New Mexico St

Performance RecordsWeek 5 and Beyond

opportunities. You can see the results in the chart below. We’ve also listed the 2016 teams that qualify under the designated categories.

You will find that there aren’t a whole lot of positive or profitable betting trends with backing the extreme teams from here on out. In fact, regardless of whether they are extremely good or extremely bad, it would seem that fading these teams the rest of the way would prove to be a better strategy.

We didn’t stop there however, as we like to do here at the Vegas Insider Football Weekly, we dug into the results a little deeper, hoping to find more discernible systems that we could share with you to take forward for the rest of the 2016 season. We looked at various line scenarios, home or road dichotomy, and even conference/non-conference breakdowns.

In terms of home and road performance, it was determined that any of the teams with an EXTREME good stat were 50/50 at home with a 71-71 ATS record, but much worse in true road games, 56-73 ATS (43.4%). Teams with an EXTREME bad stat were 63-69 ATS at home and again worse on the road, 57-69 ATS (43.6%).

When looking closer at line scenarios, the teams in the EXTREME good stat categories were fairly strong plays as large favorites of 20-points or more, going 40-29 ATS (58.0%). Any other line scenario below that, they fell into the fade category, 114-134 ATS (46.0%). Worst among those scenarios was the performance as an underdog, 35-46 ATS (43.2%). The teams in the EXTREME bad statistical categories were .500 or below in every line scenario analyzed, highlighted by a 25-37 ATS (40.3%) record when underdogs of 20-points or more.

When breaking down the performance differentials in conference or non-conference play, it seems that the EXTREME good teams have better luck away from league, going 31-25 ATS, as opposed to 124-138 ATS versus conference foes, a full 8.0% difference. The EXTREME bad teams were 47.7% ATS in league, and 42.3% out of league.

When combining our results, we know that the EXTREME good stat teams have been better at home or in neutral games. They’ve also been better against non-conference teams, and they’ve really been at their best as large favorites. Taking the exact opposite scenarios, we come up with this combined system: Teams that have produced at least one EXTREME good stat after four weeks are just 13-35 SU & 18-26 ATS (40.9%) as underdogs in road games versus conference foes the rest of the way.

Alternatively, when looking at the teams with EXTREME bad statistics, we have found a scenario for fading them that makes sense: Teams that have produced at least one EXTREME bad stat after four weeks are 0-18 SU & 5-13 ATS (27.7%) as underdogs of 17-points or in road non-conference games the rest of the way. These teams allowed 49.9 PPG.

Digging deeper into our individual EXTREME stat categories, we come up with this system: Teams that scored less than 11.0 PPG offensively in the first four weeks are 10-20 ATS (33.3%) at home against conference foes the rest of the way, including 0-6 ATS as favorites.

We tried several other combination scenarios to try and uncover more sensational ATS trends but found no luck. However, we did find a totals system that might quench your thirst for profitability:

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Teams that scored less than 11.0 PPG AND gained less than 4.0 YPP offensively were 17-4-2 OVER (80.9%) the total the rest of the way.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL OVERALL KEY STATS POST-WEEK 4After analyzing the EXTREMES, we thought it would also be a good time to do a “strength check” in terms of how ALL teams are doing statistically thus far. The chart below shows each team’s record to date along with their Effective Points Per Game, Yards Per Play, and Yards Per Point Differentials. Those of you fact checking on the chart might notice a difference from stats you see on everyday sports websites. That is because we use EFFECTIVE statistics, which factor in a team’s schedule played and the relation of their performance in comparison to that of the teams they have played. This gives a far better indication of the actual strength of a team. You’ll see right now that Ohio State (two categories) and Louisville are at the tops of the various statistics. Where does your favorite team rank? Where does the team you’re planning to bet on today rank in comparison to its opponent?

SU ATS PPG YPP YPPT SU ATS PPG YPP YPPTTeam (Conference) W-L W-L O-U Diff Rk Diff Rk Diff Rk Team (Conference) W-L W-L O-U Diff Rk Diff Rk Diff Rk

AIR FORCE (MTN WEST) 3-0 2-1 1-2 12.0 67 0.28 93 1.99 74 MISSOURI (SEC) 2-2 3-1 3-1 24.0 29 2.08 33 7.20 32AKRON (MAC) 2-2 1-3 4-0 6.1 85 2.04 35 2.27 70 N ILLINOIS (MAC) 0-4 0-4 4-0 -5.7 115 0.14 96 -3.25 119ALABAMA (SEC) 4-0 3-1 2-2 47.0 3 3.46 8 21.90 5 NAVY (AMER ATH) 3-0 2-0 2-1 12.5 61 1.16 63 4.91 48APPALACHIAN ST (SUN BELT) 2-2 3-1 2-2 10.7 74 0.57 87 5.13 47 NC STATE (ACC) 2-1 2-1 2-0 18.6 46 1.49 56 1.25 78ARIZONA (PAC 12) 2-2 1-3 2-2 12.1 65 1.58 54 5.15 46 NEBRASKA (BIG TEN) 4-0 3-0 1-3 24.7 25 1.65 51 10.20 21ARIZONA ST (PAC 12) 4-0 3-1 3-1 16.8 52 0.06 97 8.30 27 NEVADA (MTN WEST) 2-2 1-3 1-3 2.4 94 -0.02 101 2.93 61ARKANSAS (SEC) 3-1 2-2 2-2 18.6 45 1.07 69 9.07 24 NEW MEXICO (MTN WEST) 1-2 1-2 3-0 2.3 95 1.14 64 -3.18 118ARKANSAS ST (SUN BELT) 0-4 0-4 1-3 -9.9 119 0.17 94 -2.59 116 NEW MEXICO ST (SUN BELT) 1-3 2-2 3-1 -14.3 124 -0.60 120 -5.63 125ARMY (IND) 3-1 3-1 1-3 19.2 43 0.76 81 2.87 62 NORTH CAROLINA (ACC) 3-1 2-2 3-1 24.4 27 3.48 7 6.91 34AUBURN (SEC) 2-2 3-1 1-3 25.0 24 2.03 36 10.91 17 NORTH TEXAS (CUSA) 2-2 3-1 2-2 -3.6 108 -1.19 125 1.82 76BALL ST (MAC) 3-1 4-0 2-2 7.5 80 0.02 99 1.66 77 NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN) 1-3 1-3 0-4 11.3 70 0.67 85 16.32 11BAYLOR (BIG 12) 4-0 1-3 0-4 27.5 17 2.42 22 7.63 29 NOTRE DAME (IND) 1-3 1-3 3-1 17.7 48 1.92 39 3.15 57BOISE ST (MTN WEST) 3-0 1-2 1-2 26.2 19 3.40 9 8.93 25 OHIO ST (BIG TEN) 3-0 3-0 2-1 54.1 1 4.12 3 156.21 1BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC) 2-2 1-2 1-3 1.6 96 1.52 55 -3.42 120 OHIO U (MAC) 2-2 2-2 1-3 4.0 90 -0.20 108 -1.29 105BOWLING GREEN (MAC) 1-3 0-4 2-2 -24.5 128 -1.00 123 -8.63 127 OKLAHOMA (BIG 12) 1-2 0-3 2-1 22.0 35 3.53 6 3.10 60BUFFALO (MAC) 1-2 1-2 1-2 -10.9 121 -0.60 119 -3.49 122 OKLAHOMA ST (BIG 12) 2-2 2-2 2-2 22.5 32 0.98 73 6.84 35BYU (IND) 1-3 3-0 1-3 20.1 38 1.85 40 8.06 28 OLD DOMINION (CUSA) 2-2 2-2 3-1 0.5 99 0.79 80 -0.62 99C MICHIGAN (MAC) 3-1 3-1 3-1 17.8 47 2.22 30 2.36 68 OLE MISS (SEC) 2-2 2-2 2-2 29.2 15 3.74 4 7.57 30CALIFORNIA (PAC 12) 2-2 2-2 4-0 17.4 50 2.18 32 1.10 82 OREGON (PAC 12) 2-2 0-3 2-2 16.5 53 2.69 19 3.14 59CHARLOTTE (CUSA) 1-3 1-3 3-1 -13.8 123 -1.43 128 -3.77 124 OREGON ST (PAC 12) 1-2 2-1 1-2 6.6 81 -0.04 104 4.81 49CINCINNATI (AMER ATH) 3-1 1-3 0-4 10.8 73 0.79 79 5.33 42 PENN ST (BIG TEN) 2-2 0-3 4-0 12.5 62 1.69 48 3.15 58CLEMSON (ACC) 4-0 2-2 0-4 33.2 11 3.07 11 10.91 16 PITTSBURGH (ACC) 2-2 1-2 3-1 19.6 41 1.20 61 5.30 44COLORADO (PAC 12) 3-1 4-0 3-1 30.2 13 3.06 12 5.32 43 PURDUE (BIG TEN) 2-1 1-1 1-2 4.2 88 1.08 68 -1.51 108COLORADO ST (MTN WEST) 2-2 3-1 0-4 -0.6 103 -0.34 114 0.64 88 RICE (CUSA) 0-4 1-3 1-3 -11.4 122 -1.32 127 -1.29 106CONNECTICUT (AMER ATH) 2-2 0-4 2-2 0.9 98 -0.98 122 1.11 81 RUTGERS (BIG TEN) 2-2 2-2 3-1 4.3 87 -0.06 105 0.47 90DUKE (ACC) 2-2 2-2 1-3 14.1 56 1.10 65 2.63 67 S ALABAMA (SUN BELT) 2-2 1-3 1-3 -3.1 107 -0.39 115 -2.42 115E MICHIGAN (MAC) 3-1 3-1 2-2 -4.4 112 -0.26 109 -1.52 109 SAN DIEGO ST (MTN WEST) 3-0 1-1 2-1 19.9 40 1.81 43 9.51 23EAST CAROLINA (AMER ATH) 2-2 2-2 3-1 11.6 68 1.73 46 -1.23 104 SAN JOSE ST (MTN WEST) 1-3 0-3 2-1 -4.3 111 -0.31 113 -1.55 111FLA ATLANTIC (CUSA) 1-3 0-4 3-1 -7.4 117 -0.45 116 -1.00 102 SMU (AMER ATH) 2-2 2-2 0-4 3.7 92 1.66 50 -0.70 100FLA INTERNATIONAL (CUSA) 0-4 0-4 1-3 -20.1 127 -1.20 126 -5.83 126 SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC) 2-2 2-2 0-4 11.3 71 0.55 88 18.77 8FLORIDA (SEC) 3-1 1-3 2-2 24.5 26 2.63 20 5.86 41 SOUTH FLORIDA (AMER ATH) 3-1 3-1 3-1 26.1 20 3.20 10 10.83 18FLORIDA ST (ACC) 3-1 2-1 3-0 30.1 14 2.28 28 6.82 36 SOUTHERN MISS (CUSA) 3-1 2-2 2-2 15.9 54 0.89 74 -0.10 95FRESNO ST (MTN WEST) 1-3 1-2 2-1 -4.1 109 -0.30 112 -0.57 98 STANFORD (PAC 12) 3-0 2-0 0-3 34.2 8 2.94 14 48.62 2GA SOUTHERN (SUN BELT) 3-1 1-3 1-3 4.0 89 -0.09 107 -1.19 103 SYRACUSE (ACC) 2-2 2-2 1-3 6.3 83 0.89 75 -1.41 107GEORGIA (SEC) 3-1 1-3 1-3 8.8 77 0.86 76 0.75 86 TCU (BIG 12) 3-1 1-3 3-1 20.7 37 2.29 26 2.63 66GEORGIA ST (SUN BELT) 0-3 1-2 1-2 -1.1 105 0.64 86 3.47 55 TEMPLE (AMER ATH) 2-2 3-1 2-2 8.4 79 0.51 89 3.99 52GEORGIA TECH (ACC) 3-1 1-1 0-3 17.4 51 1.18 62 10.83 19 TENNESSEE (SEC) 4-0 2-2 2-2 25.5 23 1.94 38 10.21 20HAWAII (MTN WEST) 1-3 2-1 3-0 -9.3 118 0.06 98 -3.48 121 TEXAS (BIG 12) 2-1 2-1 2-1 18.9 44 1.60 53 2.76 65HOUSTON (AMER ATH) 4-0 3-0 1-3 39.2 5 1.97 37 21.58 6 TEXAS A&M (SEC) 4-0 4-0 1-3 38.4 6 3.69 5 15.73 12IDAHO (SUN BELT) 2-2 1-3 2-2 -10.8 120 -0.28 110 -3.75 123 TEXAS ST UNIV (SUN BELT) 1-2 1-2 2-1 -14.5 125 -1.08 124 -0.54 97ILLINOIS (BIG TEN) 1-2 1-2 1-2 3.7 91 0.73 82 0.05 93 TEXAS TECH (BIG 12) 2-1 2-1 2-1 22.7 31 2.21 31 4.20 51INDIANA (BIG TEN) 2-1 1-2 1-2 8.4 78 1.83 41 -1.58 112 TOLEDO (MAC) 3-0 3-0 2-1 25.7 22 2.81 17 5.15 45IOWA (BIG TEN) 3-1 1-3 1-3 23.2 30 1.81 42 18.15 9 TROY (SUN BELT) 3-1 3-1 2-2 21.0 36 0.85 77 9.98 22IOWA ST (BIG 12) 1-3 2-2 2-2 6.2 84 1.49 58 1.16 80 TULANE (AMER ATH) 2-2 2-1 2-2 9.1 76 0.44 90 3.57 54KANSAS (BIG 12) 1-2 1-2 1-2 -4.2 110 0.72 83 -1.55 110 TULSA (AMER ATH) 3-1 2-2 2-2 15.6 55 1.02 72 3.77 53KANSAS ST (BIG 12) 2-1 1-1 1-2 25.7 21 2.28 29 2.16 73 TX-SAN ANTONIO (CUSA) 1-3 1-3 2-2 -5.9 116 -0.48 118 -1.64 113KENT ST (MAC) 1-3 2-2 2-2 -5.0 114 -0.03 103 -0.49 96 UCF (AMER ATH) 2-2 3-1 2-2 13.7 59 1.49 57 0.80 85KENTUCKY (SEC) 2-2 1-3 3-1 2.9 93 1.81 44 0.91 83 UCLA (PAC 12) 2-2 0-3 1-3 22.2 34 2.69 18 6.37 38LA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT) 2-2 3-1 2-2 -4.8 113 0.02 100 -1.99 114 UNLV (MTN WEST) 1-3 2-2 4-0 1.0 97 0.69 84 -0.09 94LA MONROE (SUN BELT) 1-2 3-0 1-2 -1.2 106 1.10 66 -0.93 101 USC (PAC 12) 1-3 1-3 2-2 17.7 49 2.29 27 2.82 63LOUISIANA TECH (CUSA) 1-3 2-2 3-1 12.4 63 2.35 24 0.67 87 UTAH (PAC 12) 4-0 2-2 2-2 20.1 39 1.76 45 7.45 31LOUISVILLE (ACC) 4-0 3-0 4-0 51.3 2 6.25 1 18.98 7 UTAH ST (MTN WEST) 2-2 2-2 1-3 6.6 82 1.09 67 0.55 89LSU (SEC) 2-2 0-4 0-4 24.2 28 2.99 13 15.62 14 UTEP (CUSA) 1-3 1-3 2-2 -18.3 126 -0.02 102 -9.18 128MARSHALL (CUSA) 1-2 1-1 3-0 0.4 100 -0.94 121 1.90 75 VANDERBILT (SEC) 2-2 2-2 2-2 11.2 72 -0.30 111 6.36 39MARYLAND (BIG TEN) 3-0 1-2 0-3 13.2 60 0.29 91 6.04 40 VIRGINIA (ACC) 1-3 3-1 1-2 5.9 86 0.80 78 2.31 69MASSACHUSETTS (IND) 1-3 3-1 1-3 -0.6 104 -0.47 117 2.24 71 VIRGINIA TECH (ACC) 3-1 2-2 3-1 28.7 16 2.29 25 3.23 56MEMPHIS (AMER ATH) 3-0 2-1 1-2 36.7 7 1.64 52 15.66 13 W KENTUCKY (CUSA) 2-2 1-3 1-3 13.9 57 2.83 16 2.20 72MIAMI FL (ACC) 3-0 3-0 2-1 33.4 10 4.19 2 12.12 15 W MICHIGAN (MAC) 4-0 4-0 2-2 26.6 18 1.04 70 4.76 50MIAMI OHIO (MAC) 0-4 3-1 1-3 -0.1 101 1.22 60 -2.63 117 WAKE FOREST (ACC) 4-0 2-2 2-2 12.1 66 0.14 95 7.03 33MICHIGAN (BIG TEN) 4-0 3-1 4-0 43.5 4 2.49 21 24.56 4 WASHINGTON (PAC 12) 4-0 2-2 3-1 33.6 9 2.92 15 16.37 10MICHIGAN ST (BIG TEN) 2-1 1-2 1-2 11.5 69 2.07 34 0.05 92 WASHINGTON ST (PAC 12) 1-2 2-1 1-2 19.5 42 0.28 92 6.78 37MIDDLE TENN ST (CUSA) 3-1 2-2 2-2 9.4 75 1.23 59 1.17 79 WEST VIRGINIA (BIG 12) 3-0 1-1 2-1 22.4 33 2.39 23 8.59 26MINNESOTA (BIG TEN) 3-0 1-2 1-2 12.4 64 1.04 71 2.81 64 WISCONSIN (BIG TEN) 4-0 3-1 1-3 31.6 12 1.69 47 25.81 3MISSISSIPPI ST (SEC) 2-2 2-2 1-3 13.7 58 1.68 49 0.39 91 WYOMING (MTN WEST) 2-2 1-3 2-2 -0.4 102 -0.08 106 0.83 84

* PPG Diff: Points Per Game Differential (Points Scored minus Points Allowed) * Rk - National Rank out of all 128 FBS teams* YPG Diff: Yards Per Game Differential (Yards Gained minus Yards Allowed) * O-U: Over/Under Results* YPP Diff: Yards Per Play Differential (Yards Gained minus Yards Allowed)


37


COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP WEEKLY TRENDSTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

59.1% ROI

30.0% ROI

33.8% ROI

34.2% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

35.6% ROI

37.9% ROI

47.3% ROI

26.2% ROI

31.8% ROI

41.6% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

35.2% ROI

26.0% ROI

(197) BAYLOR AT (198) IOWA STBAYLOR is 20-4 ATS(L25G) - Against lesser-scoring teams averaging 23 PPG or less(CS)( $1560 Profit with a 59.1% ROI )

(161) WISCONSIN AT (162) MICHIGANWISCONSIN is 33-15-2 ATS(L50G) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)( $1650 Profit with a 30.0% ROI )

(125) KANSAS ST AT (126) WEST VIRGINIAKANSAS ST is 34-14-2 ATS(L50G) - VS BIG12( $1860 Profit with a 33.8% ROI )

(167) LA MONROE AT (168) AUBURNAUBURN is 29-12-1 OVER(L50G) - as favorite of more than 14 points( $1580 Profit with a 34.2% ROI )

(199) MICHIGAN ST AT (200) INDIANAINDIANA is 35-14-1 OVER(L50G) - AS underdog of more than 7 points( $1960 Profit with a 35.6% ROI )

(201) OKLAHOMA AT (202) TCUOKLAHOMA is 26-10 OVER(L5Y) - VS BIG12( $1500 Profit with a 37.9% ROI )

(175) KENTUCKY AT (176) ALABAMAKENTUCKY is 8-27 ATS(L5Y) - As underdog( $1820 Profit with a 47.3% ROI )

(129) NOTRE DAME VS (130) SYRACUSENOTRE DAME is 16-32-2 ATS(L50G) - as double digit favorite( $1440 Profit with a 26.2% ROI )

(217) FRESNO ST AT (218) UNLVUNLV is 13-29 ATS(L42G) - Against poor teams with 30%+ winning pct(CS)( $1470 Profit with a 31.8% ROI )

(131) SOUTH FLORIDA AT (132) CINCINNATISOUTH FLORIDA is 23-8 UNDER(L5Y) - Conference games( $1420 Profit with a 41.6% ROI )

(149) OHIO U AT (150) MIAMI OHIOMIAMI OH is 34-14 UNDER(L50G) - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than 29 PPG(CS)( $1860 Profit with a 35.2% ROI )

(181) FLORIDA AT (182) VANDERBILTVANDERBILT is 33-17 UNDER(L50G) - VS AP top 25( $1430 Profit with a 26.0% ROI )

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