week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 -...
Transcript of week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 -...
![Page 1: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Emissions
![Page 2: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
source: wikipedia
Where the Emissions Come From
![Page 3: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Greenhouse Gas Concentra8ons
(Source: IPCC AR4, 2007, WG1, pg135)
![Page 4: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Keeling Curve
hMps://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-‐content/plugins/sio-‐bluemoon/graphs/mlo_full_record.png
![Page 5: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Last two years of CO2 data…
hMps://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-‐content/plugins/sio-‐bluemoon/graphs/mlo_two_years.png
![Page 6: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
And if you zoom right out…
hMps://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/wp-‐content/plugins/sio-‐bluemoon/graphs/co2_800k.png
![Page 7: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Surface Temperature Record
hMp://berkeleyearth.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2015/03/results-‐plot-‐volcanoes.jpg
![Page 8: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
MR Allen et al. Nature 458, 1163-1166 (2009)
Emissions Profile for ≤ 2ºC rise
![Page 9: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Basic Energy Balance Model
(Source: IPCC AR4, 2007, WG1, pg96)
![Page 10: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Some Experiments to try… 1. Stop the rota8on of the earth. What happens to the storms? Why? 2. Remove the land-‐masses. What happens to the gulf stream? 3. Remove the ice at the poles. What happens to polar temperatures? Why? 4. Remove all CO2 from the atmosphere. How much colder is the earth? Why? What happens if you
leave it running? 5. Erupt a whole bunch of volcanoes all at once. What happens? Why?
How long does the effect last? Does it depend on how many volcanoes? 6. Remove all human ac8vity. How long does it take for the greenhouse gases to return to the levels
they were at before the industrial revolu8on? Why? 7. Change the 8lt of the earth’s axis a bit. What happens to seasonal variability? Why? Can you induce
an ice age? If so, why? 8. Move the earth a liMle closer to the sun. What happens to temperatures? How long do they take to
stabilize? Why that long? 9. Burn all the remaining (es8mated) reserves of fossil fuels all at once. What happens to
temperatures? Sea levels? Polar ice? 10. Set up the earth as it was in the last ice age. How much colder are global temperatures? How much
colder are the poles? Why the difference? How much colder is it where you live? 11. Melt all the ice at the poles (by whatever means you can). What happens to the coastlines near
where you live? Over the rest of your con8nent? Which country loses the most land area? 12. Keep CO2 levels constant at the level they were at in 1900, and run a century-‐long simula8on.
What happens to temperatures? Now try keeping aerosols constant at 1900 levels instead. What happens? How do these two results compare to what actually happened?
![Page 11: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
A very simple climate model
(1-a)Sπr2 = 4πr2εσT4
T = (1-a)S ≈ 12°C4εσ
4
Incoming solar radia8on = Outgoing blackbody radia8on
albedo of the earth
radius of the earth
solar radia8on
emissivity of the earth
Stefan-‐Boltzmann constant
temperature of the earth’s surface
Solving for temperature, you get:
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model
![Page 12: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Simple 1 & 2 Layer Models
Note: Assumes “an atmosphere layer” = enough GHG to complete block all infra-‐red
Source: Dessler, Introduc8on to Modern Climate Change, chapter 4
![Page 13: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Generalizing to more layers
Source: Dessler, Introduc8on to Modern Climate Change, chapter 4
![Page 14: week 8 - building modelssme/PMU199-climate-computing/Week8... · 2015. 11. 14. · week 8 - building models.pptx Author: Steve Easterbrook Created Date: 11/14/2015 12:32:59 AM ...](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071405/60fb01fe27a9c66db01e0b01/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
How well does the model work?
Source: Dessler, Introduc8on to Modern Climate Change, chapter 4