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IV. HOW CAN THE POPULATION

EXPLOSION BE CONTROLLED?

F-2010

Richard H. Bernsten

Agricultural Economics

Michigan State University

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I. Trends in World Population Growth

A. Pre-Modern (Fig 3.1)

High birth rate (40/1,000 people/year)

High death rate (40/1,000 people/year)

Population stable to 1500s (life expectancy=25 years)

B. Modern

Increasingly rapid growth (Cartoon)

o 1850-1950: 100 years to double (1.25-2.5 billion)

o 1950-1987: 37 yrs to double (2.5-5.0 billion)

o But, rate of increase has been declining since the late 1980s!

Current population: 6.871 billion (US Census Bureau, 10/1/10)

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popclockworld.html

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Future population growth projections

Scenarios assume different future fertility/death rates (Figure 1)

2050--9.2 billion (medium scenario), 1974 est. = 10-12 billion)

2100--10 billion and remain stable or decline (UN)?

But AIDS rate = >20% in some Sub-Saharan African countries!!

• Declining life expectancy--Zimbabwe: 1970-75=58, Now=43 yrs

• Rise of shortgevity in Sub Saharan Africa (Zim., aspirations)

Key Concepts

Replacement fertility level (RFL)--2.1 kids/woman

Zero population growth--in long run, countries will achieve ZPG

after RFL is reached

But population will still increase after RFL is achieved (Why?)

o Population momentum--3 billion people < 24 yrs. old,

(46% of world’s current population)

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C. What Causes Rapid Population Growth? (Table 4.3) Key Determinants (country level) Death rate Migration rate (Current Pattern)

o US--historical & current source of population growth Early 1900s, Europe; Now Africa, LAC, Asia Increase in illegal immigration (Mexico, CA & Brazil) Immigrants in past 30 years = equal 1/3 of all US immigrants

o Europe--immigration backlash (How to reduce illegal immigrants?)

Total fertility rate (TFR), higher TFR = more rapid population growth def. Total # of children a woman has between age 15-49

Demographic Transition Model Shows how nations with high pop. growth achieve lower rates (1st--hi fert.+hi death rates, 2nd—low death+hi fert. rates, 3rd—low fert +low death rates)

Developed countries o Death rates & birth rates have fallen gradually since 1850s Why? O o o O o o

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LDCs o Death rates declined rapidly (1930s-1970s) to 20/1,000

• Health, sanitation improvements • Food production technology

o But birth rates (fertility) remained high (40/1,000) o Results--population explosion! o Then, birth rates (fertility) declined in 1970s (DT, Figure 2.1)

Country 1965 TFR 2000-2005 TFR India: 6.2 3.0 Mexico: 7.0 2.5 (2.1 by 2050!) Global TFR: 1950=5.0 2.7 UN Estimates (2005) for number of children/women (15-49 yrs) World =2.5; Africa=4.1, Asia=2.4, LA=2.1, NA=2.0, Europe=1.6

Today, Worldwide

o TFR <2.1 in 52 countries=44% of world population (Figure) o TFR <2.1 in 12 LDCs o Significant decline in many Catholic & Islamic countries o Results--slower world population growth rate

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D. Trends in Rate of World Population Growth

Growth rate peaked in early 1960s--2.04% per year (Figure)

Current rate--1.2% per year (2000-2005) ―Showstopper‖!!

Projected rate--0.34 (2045-2050)

Growth rate is declining RAPIDLY in all regions, except Africa

Two Stories Population Growth Rate/year (Fig. 2.2)

o High income countries 0.7% (pop. implosion, Spain!)

o Middle income: 0.9% (great success)

o Low income : 1.8% (some success)

Population Myth--uncontrolled population growth! But major differences exist between counties (Fertility Map)

High population growth rates (17 countries (>2.5%) Where/Why?

Angola, Benin, Chad, D.R. Congo, Guatemala, Jordon, Kuwait,

Madagascar, Niger, Saudi Arabia, Uganda, W. Bank/Gaza, Yemen

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Successful LDCs (< 2%) Where/Why?

Bolivia, Burundi, Haiti (1.9); Cambodia, Egypt, Namibia, Venez. (1.8); Bangladesh, El Salvador, Colombia, Thailand (1.7); Algeria, Costa Rica, Mexico (1.6); DR, Ecuador, Panama, India, Peru (1.5); Mexico (1.4); Indonesia, Sri Lanka (1.3); Brazil, Chile (1.2), Tunisia, Vietnam, Zambia (1.1); Argentina, Zimbabwe—Why? (1.0), China (0.7).

Western/industrialized countries (low–population implosion!!)

US (1.0%); Canada (0.9); Portugal, Spain (0.5); Belgium (0.4); Denmark, Sweden (0.3); UK, (0.2); Germany (0.1); Italy (-0.1); Poland (-0.3); Russia (-0.5); Ukraine (-0.8); Bulgaria (-0.9)

(ALL of Europe below RFL, Europe = the Gray Continent)

Implications of doubling‖ time (Figure 3.2)

o World--fewer years required to double population, reversal

o Major regional differences (2008 data (Figure 3.2)

• Low: Europe, 800+ yrs.

• High: SS Africa, 28 yrs. (fertility rate = 5.4)

o Pop. growth paradox: most rapid growth in poorest countries

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II. Distribution of World's Population

A. Largest Countries Most Important for Determining Future Population

5 countries = 48% of World’s Population!

(China 21%; India 16%; US 5%; Indonesia 3%, Brazil 3%)

10 countries accounted for 60% of annual increase (1995-2000)

(India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, US, Brazil, Bangladesh,

Mexico, Philippines)

B. Distribution of World’s Population Shares Is Changing Dramatically

98% of projected world pop. growth in LDCs (2000-2005)

Africa’s share of world population is increasing rapidly

See: regional share trends and resulting shares (Fig. 30.5)

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Region 1950 (%) 2000 (%) 2050 (%) Change 1950 vs.2050

Africa 9 13 21 + >140%

Asia 55 60 58 + 5%

Europe 22 12 7 Declining

LAC 7 9 9 + 29%

N. Amer. 7 5 5 Declining

Note: 1950, Europe = 3 x Africa, 2050, Europe =1/3 Africa Why?

Future LDC’s Population Share

o 1950 = 67% (Figure 1)

o 2000 = 83%

o 2050 = 89%

Political and economic Implications?

o .

o .

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III. Impact of Current Population Trends in LDCs

A. Rapidly Aging Population

Population Pyramids (Pick country--Census Bureau) (Fig 8.1)

(Examples--US, Spain, Pakistan)

LDCs = cone shaped (Pakistan, Figure)

DCs = rectangular (Sweden, Figure)

Age distribution explains differences in pyramids (1975)

Region <15 yrs >65 yrs Future? (Figure 2)

Africa 45% 3%

LDCs 37% 4% (World Age Dist., 2005)

DCs 22% 11%

By 2025, world’s >65 yrs population will grow from 7 to 11% (Fig. )

Consequences for LDCs?

o Must invest in kids--education, child health; creating jobs

o Other challenges/problems?

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Consequences for DCs (and LDCs in the future)?

(Japan/Europe, workers: retired—now = 3:1; 2050=1:1)

o Facing a labor shortage, increasingly dependant on migrants

Spain’s & other EU country’s solution?

o Must invest in meeting the needs of the elderly--straining social security/retirement, health care

o Other?

B. Rapidly Growing Urban Population

Began with Industrial Revolution in Europe/US in early 1800s

Now urban areas in LDCs are growing rapidly

Region 1950 (%) 2000 (%) 2030(%)

LA 42 76 85

Africa 15 37 54

Asia 17 37 55

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Now (2007) most people live in cities/urban areas (Figure1.2)

o 1990--majority of world population rural

o 2000--21 cities > 10 m. people (17 in LDCs) (Figure)

o 2030--urban population will = double rural

o 21st century--90% of population growth in cities (Figure)

Growing problems common to all LDC mega-cities (Photo)

o Water, sanitation, solid wastes, pollution

o Unemployment, poverty, housing shortages

o Potential for civil violence, radical religious fundamentalism

Priorities for improving the lives of urban dwellers

o Reduce population growth among residents (family planning)

o Improve education, healthcare, sewerage, housing, clean water, transportation, job creation

o Greater national & international investment to improve cities

(1970-2000, aid for cities = only 4% of total international aid)

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IV. Is Rapid Population Growth ―Really‖ A Problem? A. Pessimists–predictors of doom!

Malthus (1789)

Predicted pop. growth would exceed food production capacity

Saw famine (positive) & postponing marriage (preventative) as only checks on population growth

Didn't foresee...What?

Ehrlich (biologist), Population Bomb (1968, 1989)

Renewed Malthus’ warnings

Promoted contraception as solution

Flavin (Worldwatch Institute)

Three factors--environmental change, resource constraints & declining quality of life--will break population growth

B. Optimists

Richman: Population not a problem! (Figure)

Human welfare is improving--life expectancy, infant mortality, food availability, nutrition

Population growth promotes progress via specialization/division of labor, which raises productivity & income (economies of scale)

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Simon (economist), The Ultimate Resource (1980s)

More people leads to more possibility of innovation

What if Einstein’s mother had practiced family planning?

C. Current View

Rapid population growth puts pressure on land, water, biodiversity resources => threatens sustainability & slows development

Development slows population growths Why?

Slower population growth promotes development Why?

Carrying capacity concept:

def. population + consumption vs. available resources

But population growth in LDCs is only partly responsible for worldwide environmental degradation

DC’s have greater impact on environment than LDC’s population

growth, due to consumption (richest 20%=85% of consumption)

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V. What are the Prospects for Further Reducing Fertility in LDC?

A. Determinants of TFR

Direct (4)--marriage age, birth interval, abortion, contraception

Indirect (5)--education, job, location, social status, religion

B. Why Are Fertility Rates High in SOME LDCs?

Must replace society (Photo)

o Conditioned by high mortality

Need labor (kids = wealth) (Photo)

o Girls for housework, boys for farm work

Must insure future security (Photo)

o Kids support old folks

Cultural values (Photo)

o Norms: kids desired, birth => status (Shona, mom’s name)

o Preference for sons, esp. in Asia—China, India (China-3 min)

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C. Why Does Development Reduce Fertility?

Reduces need for many births

o Less infant mortality, less births needed

Reduces need for labor

o > urban, need less labor

o > technology, labor less valuable

Improves security of elderly

o Social security systems provide safety net

Reduces desire for sons

o With > education/opportunities, female kids have > value

D. What Methods Exist for Reducing Fertility?

Traditional--abstinence, breast feeding, spacing, induced abortions, contraceptive foods (Photo)

Modern--condom, pill (1960), loop, sterilization (Photo)

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E. How Are Govts. & NGOs in LDCs Promoting Family Planning?

Publicizing benefits of small families & providing information

o Traditional--song, drama

o Modern—TV/soaps, radio, plays, billboards (Photo)

Improving access to contraceptives via heath clinics (Photo)

o Offering choices–not just one method

o Subsidizing cost

Increasing social pressure

o Forced abortions--if not married, already have 1 child (China)

o Educating men (large family=macho/virility)

o But, values/attitudes change slowly

Offering monetary incentives/disincentives

o Cash bonuses for sterilization (previously in India)

o Fining couples for having >1 child (China)

Passing laws related to marriage

o Minimum age for marriage (Tunisia, China-21/25 yrs.)

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F. Have Family Planning Programs Been Successful? Great increase in contraceptive use since 1960 (Figure 6.4)

Contraceptive use reduces fertility rate (Figure)

NEW Evidence of Declining TFRs Results of survey/study in LDCs, N=300,000 women (Photo)

o Success in parts of Africa since 1970s:

• Kenya (-36%), Zimbabwe (-18%), Botswana (-26%)

o Most women use family planning: • LDCs=60% • DCs=>70%

o Most LDC women want fewer kids (Figure)

o Great unmet demand, 20% of LDC & 50% African women) o UNPA estimate = 200 million women (Funding constraint)

o Meeting demand would reduce LDC’s growth to1.6%/year

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G. What factors have contributors to this success? Strong family planning programs/availability of contraceptives

PLUS indirect impact of development.on contraceptive use/fertility

o Higher income

o Higher costs of large supporting families

o Greater urbanization

o Improved women’s/child health

o More female education/economic power (Policy Brief, Power of educ girls, 2 min) (strong link between women’s productive & reproductive role)

Example of great success--Kerala, India o What’s unique about Kerela?

o Emphasized both

• Cultural factors--education + social agreement

• Family planning--clinics, condom distribution, word-of-mouth campaigns

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VI. How Can Developed Countries Help?

Several rich US Philanthropists/Foundations recognize importance/give $ for family planning--Rockefeller Foundation, Packard Foundation, Ted Turner , Warren Buffett

DC government can help by providing more aid for

o Family planning

Bush cut funding for the UN Population Fund, due to pressure from religious right (cut aid $ to agencies that refused to ban abortions/de-emphasize condoms)

Obama reversed the ―global gag rule‖

o Promoting economic development

Population growth isn’t the only problem

Economic development slows population growth

Development = the best contraceptive

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Thomas Malthus, early 1800s,

“An Essay on the Principle of

Population”

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Scenarios in 2003 (2050):

High = 10.6 billion

Medium = 9.1 billion

Low = 7.7 billion

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Recent Changes—2050 Medium

2005—8.9 billion

2007—9.2 billion

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(people/year)

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Upper line = Birth rate

Lower line = Death rate

Decline in LDCS

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Lifetime births/women (15-49 years of age)

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Severe famine in China

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Years required to double population, given 2008 population growth rate

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Less Developed

Pct. < 15 yrs old

More Developed

Pct. < 15 yrs. old

More Developed

Pct > 60 yrs old

Less Developed

Pct > 60 yrs old

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Population Growth Rates, 1997-2015

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© 2004 Population Reference Bureau

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions

300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300

Less Developed

Regions

More Developed

Regions

Male Female Male Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 17-19 10-16 5-90-4

Age

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.

Age Distribution of the World’s Population

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