Webloyalty UK Christmas Retail Research

LOOKING AHEAD… CHRISTMAS SPENDING & TRENDS IN THE UK

WEBLOYALTY & CONLUMINO

NOVEMBER 2014

Introduction

Looking ahead ... Christmas 2014

© 2014 Webloyalty & Conlumino [email protected] | +44 (0)20 7290 1650

Webloyalty 2nd Floor, 2 Harewood Place, London W1S 1BX +44 (0)20 7290 1650 [email protected] www.webloyalty.co.uk

Conlumino 7 Carmelite Street, London EC4Y 0BS +44 (0)20 7936 6654 [email protected] www.conlumino.com

This research has been commissioned by Webloyalty to provide retailers with insight into the current trading environment as well as some more specific insight around Christms trading. About Webloyalty Webloyalty is a leading reward programme provider working with major online retailers to help them build stronger, more profitable relationships with their customers. Through our membership programmes we help our online retail partners’ customers save hundreds of pounds a year while providing the partner with an additional revenue stream. As well as incentivising customers to make repeat purchases at the partner’s site, members can also earn cashback and get great deals on everything from fashion to electronics to travel at hundreds of top online stores. Webloyalty was established in the UK in 2007 and has since expanded into France, Spain, Ireland, Brazil, the Netherlands and Turkey. About Conlumino Conlumino is a retail research agency and consulting firm. Our work focuses on all aspects of retailing and consumer behaviour, which we deliver through bespoke reports, projects and presentations. We work with many of the world’s leading retailers, property firms and those in the financial sector to help them maximize success through developing a thorough understanding of the sector and its likely future performance.

Foreword

Christmas



Summary

A sparkly Christmas While Christmas won’t be as lucrative as it was during the heady days before the economic downturn, we expect spending to sparkle this festive season with total growth of 2.7%. However, the spoils will not be evenly distributed with food and grocery struggling on a 1.5% increase. Spending on gifts will see an uplift of 3.3%.

We’re dreaming of … a traditional Christmas Spending to one side, most of us will celebrate Christmas Day in a fairly traditional way with 64% having a festive meal with family, 61% watching the television, and 60% opening presents. Only 14% plan to listen to the Queen’s speech and 12% will use the day as an excuse for a lie-in. A small 1.6% will catch up on housework.

Getting out the games 12% of us will be playing board games on Christmas Day. Our favourites include: card games (played by 9%), Trivial Pursuit (7%), Monopoly (7%), Scrabble (6%), and Charades (4%). Season’s greetings While many things have gone digital, 66% of us plan to send only printed Christmas cards, compared to just 3% who say they will only send e-cards. The average consumer is planning to send 27 cards this Christmas.

Time commitment The average consumer will spend around 10 hours on Christmas-related shopping activities, with a committed 4.5% spending more than 48 hours on shopping. The total budget will be an average of £433 with 6.6% budgeting £1,000 or more.

The festive table Almost half of us plan to spend £9.99 or less per head on the Christmas meal and most of us (67%) will do our shopping in physical stores. 81% will eat roast potatoes for Christmas dinner, 65% roast turkey and 65% stuffing. 5% will have steak.

Christmas



2013 spending

In 2013 we spent £15.662bn on Christmas

Breakdown of 2013 Christmas spending

Total Christmas spending

£15.662bn

Gifts

£8.684bn

Seasonal non-food

£1.796bn

Food and drink

£5.182bn

Christmas



2014 spending

This year we will spend just over £16bn on Christmas, up 2.7%

Breakdown of 2014 Christmas spending

Total Christmas spending

£16.080bn

Gifts

£8.969bn

Seasonal non-food

£1.850bn

Food and drink

£5.261bn

Gifts

Up 3.3%

Seasonal non-food

Up 3.0%

Food and drink

Up 1.5%

Christmas



Christmas Day

What will you be doing on Christmas Day this year? All figures are percentages

Having lunch with the family, watching TV and opening presents are the most popular things to do on Christmas Day

64.3 61.4 59.7

43.7

31.0 23.5

14.4 12.2 11.9 11.7 11.3 7.7 7.6 5.4 2.9 2.4 2.3 1.6

Have Christmas

lunch with my family

Watch TV Open presents Prepare and cook

Christmas dinner

Watch films Go out for a walk

Listen to or watch the

Queen’s speech

Play board games

Have a lie-in Listen to the radio

Spend time with my friends

Have Christmas

lunch with my inlaws

Go to midnight mass

or a church service

Play computer

games

Abroad on holiday

Work Wrap presents that I put off

wrapping before

Catch up on the housework

Christmas



The games we will play

9.0% Cards

7.4% Trivial Pursuit

6.8% Monopoly

5.9% Scrabble

4.1% Charades

2.6% Pictionary

2.1% Cluedo

What games, if any, will you play on Christmas Day? All figures are percentages

Christmas



Essential purchases

What are your essential Christmas purchases? All figures are percentages

Just under three-quarters say that presents are an essential purchase; while over half say cards are still essential

70.5% Presents

57.3% Cards

45.5% Chocolates

29.7% Biscuits

28.8% Fruit

27.8% Nuts

25.5% Alcohol

18.1% Decorations

10.2% Champagne

3.6% Jumpers

Christmas



Spending

How much will you spend on Christmas gifts? All figures are percentages

Those who buy gifts will spend an average of £288 on them

17.2% will spend

under £100

15.0% will spend

£100-£149.99

13.9% will spend

£150-£199.99

15.7% will spend

£200-£299.99

11.5% will spend

£300-£399.99

8.5% will spend

£400-499.99

11.6% will spend

£500+

6.6% say that they will spend nothing on Christmas gifts this year

Christmas



Change in spending

How does your planned spending on Christmas gifts compare to last year? All figures are percentages

The majority plan to spend more or the same as they did last year

Plan to spend more than last year

Plan to spend less than last year

Did not buy last year and will not buy this year

Plan to spend about the same as last year

8.3% 21.5% 4.1% 66.1%

Christmas



How we will shop

How will you shop for Christmas this year? All figures are percentages

The majority of people will use both online and stores

In store only

16.8% Numbers may not sum to 100%; residuals are accounted for by those saying ‘don’t know’.

Both online and in store

66.8%

Online only, while at work

1.1%

w

Online only, while at home

11.4%

h

Online only, at work and home

3.8%

h+w

Christmas



Sending cards

Are you planning to send printed or online Christmas cards this year? All figures are percentages

The vast majority are still planning on sending printed cards

Online only

Online and printed

Don’t plan to send any

Printed only

3.0% 15.5% 15.0% 66.5%

Christmas



Sending cards

How many cards do you plan to send this Christmas? All figures are percentages

On average we will send 27 Christmas cards each

1-10 17.0%

11-20 27.2%

21-30 21.3%

31-40 13.3%

41-50 8.8%

51-60 5.5%

61-70 2.6%

71-80 1.8%

81-90 0.7%

91+ 1.8%

Christmas



Spending on the meal

How much do you typically spend on your Christmas meal per head? All figures are percentages

Almost half spend £9.99 or less per head on the Christmas meal

19.7% will spend

under £4.99

28.9% will spend

£5 -£9.99

24.7% will spend £10-£14.99

11.9% will spend £15-£19.99

7.3% will spend

£20-£24.99

3.3% will spend £25-£29.99

4.2% will spend

£30+

Christmas



Online food shopping

Are you doing your food shopping online this Christmas? All figures are percentages

Most consumers prefer to do their food shopping in store

Yes Combination of online and in-store

Not yet decided No

7.3% 14.2% 12.0% 66.5%

?

Christmas



Why we buy food online

Saving time and convenience are the main reasons for buying online

63.2

43.2 36.8 33.5

19.4 9.7

It saves time It’s more convenient to have my food shopping delivered

to my door

I dislike shopping in store during the Christmas period

It works out cheaper I can buy products otherwise difficult to buy in store

I can guarantee that I will get the items I want

Why do you buy food online? All figures are percentages

Christmas



Where we’ll shop

Which of the following retailers are you planning to use for your Christmas food and grocery shopping this year? All figures are percentages

Over a third plan to use Tesco for their Christmas grocery shop

37.9

28.8 28.2

19.6 19.2 18.8 14.9 14.8

9.4 6.2 5.3

2.9 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2

Tesco Sainsbury’s Asda Morrisons Aldi Marks & Spencer

Iceland Lidl Waitrose Other Coop Farmfoods Ocado Thorntons Booths Majestic Netto

Christmas



What we’ll eat

Which foods do you usually eat as part of your Christmas meal? All figures are percentages

Roast potatoes are a favourite with 8 out of 10 eating them

80.9

65.4 64.9 57.3

49.3 43.7 43.4

37.3

27.7

16.1 15.3 14.2 14.2 8.8 5.6 4.8 4.1

Roast potatoes

Stuffing Roast turkey

Brussel sprouts

Parsnips Mince pies Christmas pudding

Cranberry sauce

Christmas cake

Bread sauce Roast chicken

Brandy cream

Roast ham Smoked salmon

Nut roast Steak Roast goose

Christmas



Time spent shopping

How many hours will you spend in total shopping for both Christmas food and gifts? All figures are percentages

On average consumers will spend 10 hours Christmas shopping

6.2

21.0

16.8

11.9 11.8

7.8 4.3 2.9 1.8 3.0 3.3 4.5

< 1 hour 2-4 hours 4-6 hours 6-8 hours 8-10 hours 10-12 hours 12-14 hours 14-16 hours 16-18 hours 18-24 hours 24-48 hours > 48 hours

Christmas



Total budget

What is your total budget for Christmas? All figures are percentages

The average consumer will spend £433 on all aspects of Christmas

16.5% will spend under £100

16.2% will spend

£100-£199.99

17.2% will spend

£200-299.99

13.8% will spend

£300-£399.99

12.7% will spend

£400-£499.99

17.0% will spend

£500-£999.99

6.6% will spend

£1,000+

Christmas



The seasonal sales

When do you intend to take advantage of the seasonal sales? All figures are percentages

Almost half will not spend in the seasonal sales

49.6

13.9

3.0 4.2

9.7

18.7

3.0

15.7

7.9

I do not expect to spend anything during

the sales

Before Christmas Eve Christmas Eve Online on Christmas Day

Boxing Day 27th December – 31st December

New Year’s day 2nd January – 10th January

After the 10th January

Christmas



Sales shopping

How will you shop during the seasonal sales? All figures are percentages

Almost a fifth will only shop online during the sales

Online only

18.3%

Mainly online

50.6%

Both online and in store

31.1%

Which device or devices will you use to make your purchases online? %

Desktop PC 43.3

Laptop 56.3

Tablet 18.7

Mobile 6.5

Internet-enabled TV 0.4

Other device 1.0

Christmas



Present buying in the sales

Will you hold off until the seasonal sales to buy Christmas presents? All figures are percentages

Almost 25% will buy at least some presents during the sales period

Yes

5.4%

No

75.9%

Will buy some, but not all presents in the sale

18.7%

Methodology About the research

Methodology



Methodology and sources

•  A combination of consumer research, secondary research and market forecasting was used to compile this report.

•  Consumer research in this report is based on a survey conducted with a nationally representative poll of UK consumers. Over 2,000 consumers were interviewed during October 2014 and questioned about their views on Christmas and their likely shopping behaviour for this event.

•  All numbers relating to expenditure and forecast expenditure on Christmas products are taken from Conlumino’s own retail model. This is updated on an ongoing basis with inputs from official sources (such as the BRC and ONS), retailers’ results and trading updates, other secondary sources and industry surveys, Conlumino’s ongoing programme of research into consumer spending and habits, and underlying economic drivers and trends. Conlumino analysts both model and interpret this information to provide guidance on the likely future direction of retail expenditure at an overall, sector and category level.

•  Unless otherwise stated, all sources of information are derived from Conlumino’s own research and should be referenced to Webloyalty/Conlumino.

Conlumino

+44 (0)20 7936 6654 [email protected]

7 Carmelite Street, London EC4Y 0BS

Webloyalty

+44 (0)20 7290 1650 [email protected]

2nd Floor, 2 Harewood Place, London W1S 1BX

Webloyalty UK Christmas Retail Research

Retail

Transcript of Webloyalty UK Christmas Retail Research