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Integrating climate, air pollution & universal

access: The Sustainable Development Scenario

Webinar

24 November 2017

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Context

Energy supports economic growth & is pervasive to all aspects of human life

Energy production & use is linked to a wide range of issues, including

environmental aspects but also e.g. health, social and equity problems

Progress has been made, but the problems are far from solved:

CO2 emissions were at the same level for three consecutive years, but a

peak is not yet in sight

Air pollution is linked to around 6 million premature deaths per year

1.1 billion people still lack access to electricity & 2.8 billion people do not

have access to clean cooking

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Energy underpins the UN Sustainable Development Agenda

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…and is particularly crucial for SDGs 3, 7 and 13

SDG 3.9: Substantially reduce the number of deaths and illnesses from hazardous chemicals and air, water and soil pollution and contamination

SDG 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

SDG 13: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts

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India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows

Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe)

Old ways of understanding the energy world are losing value as countries change roles;

India1 005

420Southeast

Asia

China 790

United States-30

Japan-50

Europe-200

270Central and South America

485Africa

135 Eurasia

480Middle

East

low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand

2016-2040

Coal OilGas Low-carbon

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

Mto

e

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CO2 emissions growth slows

Energy-related CO2 emissions in the New Policies Scenario

Emissions growth slows as China moves restructures its economic growth model and the

use of low-carbon technologies, in particular solar PV and wind, rises

10

20

30

40G

t

Coal Oil Gas

1990 2000 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040

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Air pollution is an energy problem

Emissions of the main air pollutants fall in many regions, but ageing populations and

urbanisation increase related health impacts

New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040

Mill

ion

peo

ple

-0.3

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

European Union

China

India

Southeast Asia

Rest of world

Premature deaths from

outdoor air pollution

-60%

-30%

0%

30%

60%

European

Union

China India Southeast

Asia

SO2 NOX PM2.5

Change in air pollutant emissions

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Million people

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2016

Electricity access makes progress in all regions,

but sub-Saharan Africa lags behind

Many countries, led by India, are on track to achieving full electrification by 2030,

but – despite recent progress – efforts in sub-Saharan Africa need to redouble

Sub-Saharan Africa

IndiaOther Asia

2020 2025 2030

IndiaOther Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Million

200

400

600

2000 2005 2010 2016

Sub-Saharan Africa

IndiaOther Asia

2020 2025 2030

Population without electricity access

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SustainableDevelopment

Scenario

The Sustainable Development Scenario reduces CO2 emissions to address climate change while also tackling air pollution and achieving universal energy access

A new strategy for energy & sustainable development

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Rethinking the energy sector

580bcm

additional gas demand

2timesmore efficientthan today

3250GW

global solar PV capacity

875million electric

vehicles

Achieving the three targets of the Sustainable Development Scenario simultaneously

requires a step change in the pace of delivering a clean energy transition

The Sustainable Development Scenario in 2040

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Electricity generation

Towards a low-carbon power sector

New Policies Scenario

Power generation in 2040 is all but decarbonised in the Sustainable Development

Scenario, with renewables accounting for more than 60% of total generation

Coal

Coal CCS

Gas CCS

Gas

Oil

Nuclear

Hydro

Wind

Solar PV

Other renewables

Sustainable Development Scenario

25%

50%

75%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2040

25%

50%

75%

2010 2020 2030 2040

100%

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Natural gas is the only fossil fuel to grow in the

Sustainable Development Scenario

Fossil fuel demand in the New Policies Scenario & Sustainable Development Scenario

Coal & oil demand drop in the Sustainable Development Scenario. Gas becomes the largest fossil fuel

by 2040 alongside the rapid expansion of low-carbon technologies & improvements in efficiency

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Coal

Oil

Gas

Mtoe

New Policies Scenario

Sustainable DevelopmentScenario

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A complex picture for gas,

a clear downward path for coal

Share of coal & gas in energy demand in selected regions in the Sustainable Development Scenario

The share of coal in total primary energy demand falls across all regions in the Sustainable

Development Scenario, but opportunities for gas vary by country, by sector and over time

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Share of gas in primary energy

Share of coalin primary energy

India

Europe North AmericaEurasia

Middle East

China 2016

2025

2040

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Three quarters of current oil and gas methane emissions

are technically avoidable

Global marginal abatement cost curve for oil and gas methane emissions, 2015

It is technically possible to reduce the 76 Mt current oil and gas emissions by 58 Mt;

half (38 Mt) can be avoided using approaches with positive net present values

North America

Europe

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Eurasia

-10

-5

0

5

10

60

Mt

0 10 20 30 40 50

USD/MBtu

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The Sustainable Development Scenario:

on track to achieve the Paris Agreement

CO2 emissions peak & decline through 2040 in the Sustainable Development Scenario,

allowing for the achievement of ambitious temperature goals by 2100

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

From SDS towards 1.5 °C

From SDS towards 2 °CSustainable Development Scenario (SDS)

Gt

CO

2

Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions

2040 2100Emissions from scenarios projecting global temperature rise of around 1.7 – 1.8 °C :

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Air quality is an energy issue

Concentration of fine particulate matter in China

Urbanisation & an ageing population increase vulnerability to health impacts in China,

but a clean energy transition cuts pollutant emissions considerably

Today

2040: New Policies Scenario

2040: Sustainable Development Scenario

Source: WEO analysis, IIASA

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Achieving universal energy access is not in

conflict with climate goals

On-Grid

Mini-Grid

Off-Grid

Existing grid

Grid extension for 150 million additional people,

with hydro accounting for the lion’s share

Decentralised solutions, mainly solar PV, for the

remaining 450 million people in rural areas

An additional $26 billion per year is needed in

electricity generation and grids

Policies of the Sustainable Development Scenario achieve universal energy access by 2030,

improving human health and supporting the achievement of climate change goals

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Energy demand

Average annual investment in the Sustainable Development Scenario

Sustainable investment needs

The Sustainable Development Scenario requires 15% additional investment to 2040; two-

thirds of energy supply investment are needed for electricity generation & networks

T&DNuclear and CCS

RenewablesFossil fuels

400

800

1 200

1 600

2016 2017-40

USD

bill

ion

(2

01

6)

Energy supply

2017-40

Industry

TransportBuildings

2016

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Conclusions

Progress is being made towards the SDGs, but under current trends the goals on

climate change, air pollution and universal access will not be met

Our strategy for sustainable energy shows that concerted action to address climate

change is fully compatible with global goals on universal access & air quality

The strategy achieves universal access in 2030, and cuts CO2 emissions and premature

deaths from air pollution in 2040 by half, relative to the central scenario

The Sustainable Development Scenario requires an additional 15% of investment and

profound changes in energy production & use

The IEA stands ready to support progress towards a clean energy future with its full

range of capabilities ranging from data to analysis and support to implementation

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