Webcast 3Q13

18
Operational and Financial Results 3rd Quarter of 2013 Conference Call / Webcast October 28 th , 2013

Transcript of Webcast 3Q13

Operational and

Financial Results

3rd Quarter of 2013

Conference Call / Webcast

October 28th, 2013

2

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:

DISCLAIMER

The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future

events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as

amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as

amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of

future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the

Company’s current views and estimates of future economic

circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial

results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend",

"plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous

expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements.

Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may

differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred

to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the

Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify

important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those

contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other

things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions,

including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and

prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of

our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas

reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social

developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our

ability to obtain financing.

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any

forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new

information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for

2013 on are estimates or targets.

All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their

entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place

reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this

presentation.

NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS

We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas

resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed

with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission

(SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such

terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves

under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.

DISCLAIMER

3

Petrobras: Oil and NGL Production in Brazil As anticipated, 3Q13 production in line with 2Q13

» Production similar to 2Q13.

» September production 3.7% higher than August, due to reduced intensity of programmed maintenance and incorporation of new producing wells.

» Lifting cost increased by 9.7% (from R$ 31.25/boe in the 2Q13 to R$ 34.28/boe in the 3Q13) due to FX variation, Collective Bargaining

Agreement, start up of FPSO Rio das Ostras (Espadarte EWT).

» E&P Net Income: R$ 11.6 billion in the 3Q13 x R$ 8.9 billion in the 2Q13, as a result of higher oil prices.

2.300

2.250

2.200

2.150

2.100

2.050

2.000

1.950

1.900

1.850

50

1.924

Mar-13

1.846

1.920

Jan-13

1.965

Dec-12

2.032

Feb13 Nov-12

1.928

Jun-12

1.940 1.940

1.843

Aug-12 Sep-12 Jul-12 May-12

1.968

Oct-12

1.960

Aug-13

1.908

Jul-13

1.888

Sep-13

1.979

Jun-13

1.979

May-13

1.892

Apr-13

1.989

Apr-12

1.961

Mar-12

1.993

Feb-12

2.098

Jan-12

2.110

Thousand bpd 3Q12

Average 1,904 2Q13

Average 1,931 3Q13

Average 1,924

FPSO Cidade de Itajaí (Baúna)

FPSO Cid. São Paulo (Sapinhoá)

FPSO Cid. De Anchieta (Baleia Azul)

2012

2013

Jan/5

Feb/16

FPSO Cid. Paraty (Lula NE Pilot)

Jun/6

Sep/10

4

2013 Production – Oil and NGL in Brazil Conclusion of 6 new units in the 4Q13

» 2H13 production will be lower than expected due to:

P-63 / Papa-Terra: late identification of corals led to changes in the subsea arrangement;

FPSO Cidade de São Paulo / Sapinhoá: Subsea 7 delay in building, delivering and installing the Decoupled Buoyancy

Supported Risers System (monobuoy); and

Limited availability of PLSVs due to the difficulties of contracting in Brazil between 2010 and 2011, which has delayed well

connections.

»The reservoirs of producing fields have been performing above expectations. Natural Decline observed during the last 12 months

was below the projected range of 10-11%.

»The delivery of 6 new units in the 4Q13 will contribute to the sustained production growth during 2014.

2.050

2.250

2.300

2.200

2.150

2.100

2.000

1.950

1.900

1.850

50

1.979

1.908

1.888

1.979

1.892 1.924

1.846

1.920

1.965

2.032

1.968

1.940

1.843

1.928 1.940 1.960

1.989 1.961

1.993

2.098 2.110

Thousand bpd 3Q12

Average 1,904 2Q13

Average 1,931 3Q13

Average 1,924 Jan/5

FPSO Cidade de Itajaí (Baúna)

Feb/16

FPSO Cid. São Paulo (Sapinhoá)

FPSO Cid. Paraty (Lula NE Pilot)

Jun/6

4Q13

2012

FPSO Cid. De Anchieta (Baleia Azul)

Sep/10

2013

TAD (Papa-Terra)

P-63 (Papa-Terra)

P-58 (Parque das Baleias)

P-55 (Roncador)

P-61 (Papa-Terra)

P-62 (Roncador)

Mar-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Feb13 Nov-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Jul-12 May-12 Oct-12 Aug-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Jun-13 May-13 Apr-13 Apr-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12

5

PROEF: Program to Increase Operational Efficiency 65 kbpd gain in the 3Q13, 75% efficiency in UO-BC and 92% in UO-RIO

UO-BC: 3Q13 UO-RIO: 3Q13

840

+32 kbpd

872

+1,2 p.p.

92.4 91.2

+33kbpd

390 357

74.9 66.9

+8,0 p.p.

Total expenditure of US$ 1.338 billion by Aug/13.

NPV of US$ 662 million; focus on recovering wells

and subsea systems.

Gain of 33 kbpd in the quarter.

Operational

Efficiency (%)

Oil + NGL

Production (kbpd)

Operational

Efficiency (%)

Oil + NGL

Production (kbpd)

Total expenditure of US$ 3.2 million by Aug/13.

NPV of US$ 804 million; focus on management,

integrity improvement and optimization in the usage

of resources.

Gain of 32 kbpd in the quarter.

With

PROEF

Without

PROEF

With

PROEF

Without

PROEF

With

PROEF

Without

PROEF With

PROEF

Without

PROEF

6

Profit-oil to the government will be the minimum established under the bid terms: 41.65%.

CONSORTIUM

Petrobras (40%)

Shell Brasil (20%)

Total (20%)

CNPC (10%)

CNOOC (10%)

Roncador Albacora

Marlim Leste

Marlim

Libra Auction Result Winning consortium comprised of companies with experience, skills and financial strength

7

Oil Products Output

Oil Products Production in Brazil Monthly records in throughput (Jul/13) and in diesel and gasoline production (Aug/13)

(kbpd) (R$/bbll) (kbpd)

» Stable total output in 3Q13 vs 2Q13, with higher diesel and gasoline production.

» Higher volume of domestic oil throughput, despite lower total throughput resulting from scheduled maintenance in REDUC,

REVAP and REGAP in 3Q13.

» Higher refining cost in reais primarily due to the increase in personnel costs related to the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

+5%

802 855 864

439501 512

7488108

9410092

2,128

0%

3Q13

134

239

211

2Q13

2,138

146

245

203

3Q12

2,026

144

228

213

+2,1%

+1,1%

Fuel Oil

Jet Fuel Others LPG

Naphtha Gasoline

Diesel

Refining Cost Throughput and Utilization (%)

3Q13

+17%

2Q13 3Q12

+5%

382436364

96%99%97%

3Q13

2,072 2,102 1,974

1.666

3Q12

1.690

2Q13

1.611

Imported Oil Utilization (%) Domestic Oil

8

3Q13 x 2Q13

3Q13 x 3Q12

Diesel: (+5%): Higher demand due to economic growth (especially retail)

and increase of sugar cane and corn harvest.

Gasoline: (+3%): Larger flex-fuel vehicles fleet, associated with gasoline

price advantages against ethanol in some states.

Diesel: (+5%): Seasonal diesel consumption in 3rd quarter due to

agricultural and industrial activities.

Gasoline: (+1%): Increase in light vehicles fleet in Brazil.

Fuel Oil: (-31%): Lower thermoelectric demand comparing to 2Q13.

Oil Products Sales in Brazil Growth of 2% in 3Q13. Diesel consumption record

Oil Products Sales – Brazil

2,372

2Q13

583

233

170

201

3Q12

2,350

569

232

169

212 Fuel Oil

587

172

210

243

Others

Gasoline

3Q13

2,422

Jet Fuel

Naphtha

Diesel

+2%

LPG

kbpd bbl/d

*

+3%

+5%

+1%

(*) Others – Lubricants, Asphalt, Coke, Propene, Solvent, Benzene, Querosene e Intermediates.

9

Trade Balance of Oil and Oil Products Higher diesel imports reduced the net balance

3Q13 x 2Q13

» Higher diesel imports to supply seasonal demand growth from agricultural and industrial activities.

» Oil export increase due to a larger availability of inventories built in 2Q13 to offset refinery maintenance in 3Q13.

» Downstream Net Income: -R$ 5.5 billion in 3Q13 x -2.5 billion in 2Q13, primarily due to higher differential with international

price, increased import volumes of oil products, particularly diesel, and higher oil acquisition price.

Exports Imports Balance

kbpd

2813

84

23868

190

293828

359

159

162

551

148

447

3T12 2T13 3T13

+17%

+12%

827

227

334

708

180

822

163

375

385

402

166

206

-27%

+0%

+55%

-9

-297-64

-262-127

2Q13

-349

-284

3Q12

-271

+22%

3Q13

-425 Diesel Gasoline Others Oil Products Fuel Oil Oil

2Q13 3Q12 3Q13 2Q13 3Q12 3Q13

10

Domestic and International Price Comparison Real devaluation and higher Brent price widened the price differential

» Price differential increased in 3Q13 due to Real

devaluation (11%) and higher international oil prices

(+8% in Dollars).

Average Brazil Price* x Average USGC Price**

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

1.100

240

210

180

150

120

Pri

ces

(R$/

bb

l)

Average Sales Price Brazil Jun 25th

Adjustments

Diesel Imports Gasoline Imports

Losses

Adjustments

Jan 30th

Mar 6th

Imp

orted

Vo

lum

es (Th

ou

sand

bb

l / d)

Jul 16th

+11%

3Q13

2,29

2Q13

2,07

3Q12

2,03

+13%

Exchange Rate (R$/US$)

+8%

110

102

110

+0,3%

Brent (US$/bbl)

* Considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil.

** USGC price with domestic market prices.

Average Sales Price USGC

Sep/13 Aug/13 Jul/13 Jun/13 Apr/13 Mar/13 Feb/13 Jan/13 Dec/12 Nov/12 Oct/12 Sep/12 May/13 Aug/12 Jul/12 Jun/12 May/12 Apr/12 Mar/12 Feb/12 Jan/12

3Q13 2Q13 3Q12

11

Natural Gas Demand and Supply Thermoelectric demand lower in 3Q13

» Thermoelectric demand reduced 16%, 3Q13 vs 2Q13 due to higher levels of water in hydroelectric reservoirs. Natural gas

thermoelectric generation remained in a high level of 5.7 GW average in 3Q13.

» Lower LNG demand.

» Net income of G&E: -R$ 0.2 billion in 3Q13 x R$ 0.6 billion in 2Q13, mainly due to lower generation volume and energy

price (PLD).

39,9

million m³/day

Domestic

Bolivia

LNG

Non-thermoelectric

Thermoelectric

Downstream

E&P/Fertilizers

SUPPLY DEMAND

40,2

37,0

38,6 11,7

39,3

+18% +18%

-7%

3Q13

84.1

30.3

40.9

2Q13

90.1

30.4

41.4

3Q12

71.5

24.6

39.6

71.0

18.6

40.3

-6%

83.6

32.1

39,6

89.4

38.0

39.3

3Q13 2Q13 3Q12

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

260%

280%

240%

220%

200%

180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

140%

120%

160%

100%

280%

260%

240%

220%

200%

60%

40%

0%

80%

20%

180%

Exploration & Production Downstream

Engineering,

Technology

& Materials

Corporate

& Services

Transpetro

Gas & Energy

Onshore

Production Administration

And Support Building Mngt,

Travels and

Lodging

Offshore

Production

Support

Services

Wells

Intervention

Refining Oil and Oil Products

Logistics

Commercialization

Supplies

And Stocks

ITC HSE

Mngt

Plannec Accomplished as planned or higher High risk of not achieving the annual target

Attention points that can put the achievement of the annual target at risk

Cenpes

100%

BR, PBio

And Liquigás

BR

Liquigás

PBio

NG

Logistics

Fertilizers

PROCOP: Monitoring of Outcomes – Jan to Sep/13 Accomplishment of R$ 4.8 billion, 122% of annual target of operating cost optimization

Jan-Sep/13

Cost Savings Expected : R$ 2.8 billion (70%)

Cost Savings Accomplished : R$ 4.8 billion (122%)

2013 Target: R$ 3.9 billion

Op

erat

ion

al E

xecu

tio

n (

%)

12

13

Financial Highlights of 3rd Quarter

» Lower 3Q13 Operating Income due to:

» Higher diesel imports, combined with a weaker Real and higher international prices for oil and oil products;

» Higher expenses with dry and subcommercial wells;

» Provisioning of personnel expenses related to the proposed Collective Bargaining Agreement 2013;

» Lower gains on asset sales.

» Lower operating income led to lower cash generation (EBITDA).

» 45% drop in net income due to lower operating profit, partially offset by lower net financial expense.

Net Income Operating Income EBITDA

R$

mill

ion

-51%

2Q13

11,107

3Q12 3Q13

-36%

3Q13 2Q13

18,091 13,091

-28%

3Q12

14,375

-9%

3Q13 2Q13

-45%

3Q12

-39%

R$

mill

ion

R$

mill

ion

14

Operating Income – 2Q13 vs 3Q13 Results impacted by higher oil products imports, especially diesel

R$

mill

ion

» Increase in Sales Revenue due to higher domestic demand (+1%) and higher oil exports volume (+27%).

» COGS 11% higher than in 2Q13, mainly due to the higher share of imported oil products in the sales mix, especially diesel,

associated with exchange rate depreciation (+11%) and higher Brent price (+8%).

» Other Expenses affected by the provision of personnel expenses (Collective Bargaining Agreement), higher expenses related

to write-off of dry and subcommercial wells, and lower gains from asset sales.

11,107

4,073 (6,196)

(523) (2,967)

5,494

2Q13

Operating Income

Sales Revenue COGS SG&A Other Expenses 3Q13

Operating Income

15

Net Income – 2Q13 vs 3Q13 Lower than the previous quarter due to Operating Income

R$

mill

ion

» 45% drop in net income due to lower operating profit, partially offset by financial results and taxes:

» Financial Results benefited from lower FX rate depreciation on net debt.

» Reduction in taxes due to lower income in the period.

6,201 (5,613)

2,531 103

842 (669)

3,395

2Q13

Net Income

Operational

Income

Financial

Result

Earnings of

equity investments

Taxes 3Q13

Net Income

Minority

Interest

16

R$ 69.3 billion in investments during the 9M13, 16% up on 9M12.

When calculated in dollars, investments grew 5%.

Investments and Tracking Physical and Financial Progress R$ 25.1 bi in 3Q13 and R$ 69.3 bi in 9M13

Tracking of physical and financial progress of 165 individual projects (S-curves):

97.7% of projected physical progress and 97.8% of projected financial progress completed.

R$

Bill

ion

9M13 investments by business segment

+16%

9M13

69.3

9M12

54%

R$ 10,7 bi 35%

R$ 6,9 bi 55%

32%

1% 1%

6% 5%

G&P

International

Distribution

Biofuel

Corporate

Downstream

E&P

17

1) Net Debt / (adjusted EBITDA 9M13/3 x 4). Adjusted EBITDA= EBITDA excluding earnings of equity-accounted investments and impairments

2) Net debt / (Net Debt + Shareholders Equity)

3) Includes tradable securities maturing in more than 90 days

Capital Structure Increase in Net Debt in 3Q13

R$ Billion 09/30/13 06/30/13

Short-term Debt 18.2 18.2

Long-term Debt 232.7 230.8

Total Debt 250.9 249.0

(-) Cash and Cash Equivalents 3 57.9 72.8

= Net Debt 193.0 176.3

US$ Billion

Net Debt 86.5 79.6

2,422,77

2,322,57

3,05

28%31% 31%

34% 36%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13

Net Debt/EBITDA Net debt / Net Capitalization 2

» Increase in net debt in 3Q13 due to lower cash

provided by operating activities (R$ 14.4 bi) and

use of cash (R$ 19.6 bi) for investing activities.

1

Operational and

Financial Results

Information:

Investor Relations

+55 21 3224-1510

[email protected]