Weather-related Air Traffic A closer-look at...Cancelled Flights: 3,083 ... 01 03 05 04 02 02 02 02...
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1 Isolating and Assessing Weather-related Air Traffic Delays A closer-look at what makes this so difficult..... Mike Robinson AvMet Applications, Inc. Is this me?
Transcript of Weather-related Air Traffic A closer-look at...Cancelled Flights: 3,083 ... 01 03 05 04 02 02 02 02...
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Isolating and Assessing
Weather-related Air Traffic
Delays
A closer-look at
what makes this
so difficult.....
Mike Robinson
AvMet Applications, Inc.Is this me?
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What is a Weather Delay?(It depends on who you ask....)
Annual % Flights Delayed due to WeatherDOT (BTS)• Airline (required) reportable
delays
• Strict guidelines for what to
report, how to assign
causality
• E.g., “late-arriving”
aircraft delay
OPSNET• FAA’s official source of NAS
ops and delay data
• Reported delays, with
assigned causality, by FAA
operations
3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Tota
l :6
/15
/20
04
7/5
/20
05
12
/14
/20
06
12
/7/2
00
73
/11
/20
10
6/1
8/2
00
75
/24
/20
06
10
/5/2
01
06
/11
/20
04
12
/8/2
00
51
/17
/20
10
6/2
6/2
00
58
/10
/20
07
4/2
0/2
00
51
0/2
2/2
00
93
/6/2
00
31
2/1
6/2
01
04
/23
/20
09
7/3
/20
11
5/2
4/2
00
52
/27
/20
03
8/4
/20
11
2/2
2/2
00
38
/22
/20
12
5/1
2/2
00
31
0/3
/20
08
5/6
/20
05
3/7
/20
09
4/4
/20
09
5/3
1/2
01
11
0/1
7/2
00
41
/27
/20
05
5/6
/20
11
9/1
9/2
00
48
/15
/20
09
8/1
7/2
00
83
/23
/20
08
3/2
8/2
01
14
/19
/20
07
11
/1/2
01
29
/15
/20
09
8/8
/20
09
4/1
4/2
00
73
/15
/20
05
12
/6/2
00
84
/15
/20
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• FAA OPSNET** Delay Analysis (2005-2014):
% Total Flights Delayed due to Weather 69%
% Total Delay Minutes due to Weather 83%
https://aspm.faa.gov/opsnet/sys/**
2530
85% Nu
mb
er o
f Flig
hts
De
laye
d
Du
e to
Weath
er
2003-2012 OPSNET WX Delays – Individual days with at least one flight
whose delay was attributed to weather†
% T
ota
l D
ela
yed
Fli
gh
ts D
ue t
o W
eath
er
† All but 5 days during entire
10 year period (99.9%)
88%
485
01 Feb 2011 Blizzard
What is Weather’s Contribution to Delay?(Also depends.....)
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When is a WX Delay Not a WX Delay?(When it’s something else of course)
Ryan McElhenny / boredpanda.com
JFK Airport
Total OPSNET
Delayed Flights: 23
Total ASPM
Cancelled Flights: 3,083
23 Jan 2016 ‘Snowzilla’Northern VA
When may a WX Delay be MORE than just a WX Delay?
• When it is an airborne delay
• When it is an excessive tarmac delay
• When it is an unanticipated delay
• When it is inequitable delay
• .....
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Trending Summer Weather Delays at a
Macroscopic Level
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Weather Events / Periods are Not the Same....so
Don’t Treat them as Such......
Significant Meteorological
Information for Convection
C-SIGMETs
www.ncdc.noaa.gov
In 2006, Delta Air Lines Inc. reported losses of $11 M during
the month of August, the equivalent of 6 cents per share for
company stockholders. In receipt of this news, investments
in Delta decreased by 20% (International Business Times, 2006)
ATL August Precipitation: 1970-2007
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www.ncdc.noaa.gov
2011 2012 2013
2014
Apr – Sep (6 month)
Divisional Precip Rank
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Remember This.............
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Considering WX Delays / Performance for
Only NY “SWAP” Days.....Still Can Mislead14 July 2015 – 2330 Z25 July 2016 – 2300 Z
22 May 2014 – 2200 Z Differences in storm event:
• Location
• Organization
• Evolution
....affecting different resources, requiring
different responses, resulting in different
impacts
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If You’re Keeping Score.....
“Isolating and Assessing WX-related Air Traffic Delays”
Ointment
Several measures
for “Weather Delay”
Weather Impact may
not be “Delay”
Demand may swamp
weather delay ‘signal’
Not all weather
is the same
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ATL Weather (Volume) Delays due to Haze.....
15 Jun 09 17 Jun 09
07 Jul 09 08 Jul 09 10 Jul 09
14 Jul 09 17 Jul 09 30 Aug 09
09 Sep 09
27 Jun 09
ATL Arrival Holding
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ATL Arrival Event(11-13 UTC)
Morning GS? Holding Stack(s)?Number of Arrival
Aircraft Holding
15 Jun – Haze YES YES 14
17 Jun – Haze YES YES 12
27 Jun – Haze YES YES 20
07 Jul – Haze YES YES 10
08 Jul – Haze YES No -
10 Jul – Haze YES YES 10
14 Jul – Haze No YES 10
17 Jul – Haze YES YES 5
30 Aug – Haze YES YES 4
09 Sep – Haze No YES 7
07 Jul – Haze No No -
23 Jul – Haze No No -
24 Jul – Haze No No -
04 Aug – Haze No No -
05 Aug – Haze No No -
08 Aug – Haze No No -
09 Aug – Haze No No -
24 Aug - Haze No No -
2009
2010
ATL 2009: Haze = Bad; ATL 2010: Haze =
Mean Number ofHolding Aircraft(1145-1300 UTC)
2009 Haze Event: 8.2
2009 No-Haze Event: 1.7
2010 Haze Event: 0
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01
03
05
04
02
02
02
02
01
01
011805
1810
1815
1820
1825
1830
TIROE
TMA TGUI Display
EstimatedTime of Arrival
(ETA)
ScheduledTime of Arrival
(STA)
2009 – ATL Meteringbegan at 1500 UTC
2010 – ATL Meteringat 1030 UTC controlsearly morning push(and primary hazeimpact period)
01 Jun – 31 Aug 2009 2010 % Change
1100-1200 UTC 78 66 -15%
1200-1300 UTC 121 100 -17%
0000-2359 UTC 1388 1337 -4%
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) “de-peaked” morning
ATL arrival schedule in summer 2010 vs. 2009 *
ATL Scheduled Arrivals (Daily Average)
* Schedule information
courtesy of Delta Air Lines
WX Folks Are Not the Only Ones Trying to
Help Address NAS Efficiency Problems.....
New / Alternative TFM Procedures Airline Schedule Changes
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Integrated
Collaborative
Rerouting
(ICR)
NAS / TFM Evolution *(Significant delay / performance
drivers)
2005 Today
GDP in
support
of SWAP
Airspace
Flow
Programs
(AFP)
New
Runway
ATL
Low-rate /
‘Surgical’
GDP
Tactics
New
Runway
ORD
Time-Based
Flow
Management
(TBFM)
Route Availability
Planning Tool
(RAPT)
RNAV / RNP
Routings &
Procedures
ASDE-X
Data &
Surface
Awareness
NY
Airspace
Redesign
Airline Capacity, Load Factor,
Schedule Evolution
FAR-117 Crew-time
Requirements
TFM / ATC
Workforce
Evolution
Flow Constrained /
Evaluation Areas
(FCA, FEA)
Reroute
Impact
Assessment
(RRIA)
Metroplex
Optimization
of Airspace
& Procedures
(OAPM)
New
Runway
ORD
New
Runway
SEA
* This is a sampling
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Assessing WX Impacts and Impact
Management Performance IS DOABLE,
but tread carefully.....
• Know your wx impact metric – what it is and what it is not
• WX impacts are more than delays; When they are delays they
can be layered and nuanced
• Be mindful and account for fact that weather periods, events, scenarios
are not the same – and these differences alone can drive performance
differences
• WX-ATM performance excels (can be derailed), can trend towards
improvement (degradation), for many reasons unrelated to weather / forecasts
• Didn’t even get into forecast weather accountability, human factors
issues, event unavoidability, etc....
Takeaways.....
