Weather-related Air Traffic A closer-look at ... Cancelled Flights: 3,083 ... 01 03 05 04 02 02 02...

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Transcript of Weather-related Air Traffic A closer-look at ... Cancelled Flights: 3,083 ... 01 03 05 04 02 02 02...

  • 1

    Isolating and Assessing

    Weather-related Air Traffic

    Delays

    A closer-look at

    what makes this

    so difficult.....

    Mike Robinson

    AvMet Applications, Inc. Is this me?

  • 2

    What is a Weather Delay? (It depends on who you ask....)

    Annual % Flights Delayed due to Weather DOT (BTS) • Airline (required) reportable

    delays

    • Strict guidelines for what to

    report, how to assign

    causality

    • E.g., “late-arriving”

    aircraft delay

    OPSNET • FAA’s official source of NAS

    ops and delay data

    • Reported delays, with

    assigned causality, by FAA

    operations

  • 3

    0

    500

    1000

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    • FAA OPSNET** Delay Analysis (2005-2014):

    % Total Flights Delayed due to Weather 69%

    % Total Delay Minutes due to Weather 83%

    https://aspm.faa.gov/opsnet/sys/**

    2530

    85% Nu m

    b e r o

    f F lig

    h ts

    D e

    la y e

    d

    D u

    e to

    W e a th

    e r

    2003-2012 OPSNET WX Delays – Individual days with at least one flight whose delay was attributed to weather†

    % T

    o ta

    l D

    e la

    y e d

    F li

    g h

    ts D

    u e t

    o W

    e a th

    e r

    † All but 5 days during entire

    10 year period (99.9%)

    88%

    485

    01 Feb 2011 Blizzard

    What is Weather’s Contribution to Delay? (Also depends.....)

    https://aspm.faa.gov/opsnet/sys/

  • 4

    When is a WX Delay Not a WX Delay? (When it’s something else of course)

    Ryan McElhenny / boredpanda.com

    JFK Airport

    Total OPSNET

    Delayed Flights: 23

    Total ASPM

    Cancelled Flights: 3,083

    23 Jan 2016 ‘Snowzilla’ Northern VA

    When may a WX Delay be MORE than just a WX Delay?

    • When it is an airborne delay

    • When it is an excessive tarmac delay

    • When it is an unanticipated delay

    • When it is inequitable delay

    • .....

  • 5

    Trending Summer Weather Delays at a

    Macroscopic Level

  • 6

    Weather Events / Periods are Not the Same....so

    Don’t Treat them as Such......

    Significant Meteorological

    Information for Convection

    C-SIGMETs

    www.ncdc.noaa.gov

    In 2006, Delta Air Lines Inc. reported losses of $11 M during

    the month of August, the equivalent of 6 cents per share for

    company stockholders. In receipt of this news, investments

    in Delta decreased by 20% (International Business Times, 2006)

    ATL August Precipitation: 1970-2007

  • 7

    www.ncdc.noaa.gov

    2011 2012 2013

    2014

    Apr – Sep (6 month)

    Divisional Precip Rank

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/

  • 8

    Remember This.............

  • 9

    Considering WX Delays / Performance for

    Only NY “SWAP” Days.....Still Can Mislead 14 July 2015 – 2330 Z25 July 2016 – 2300 Z

    22 May 2014 – 2200 Z Differences in storm event:

    • Location

    • Organization

    • Evolution

    ....affecting different resources, requiring

    different responses, resulting in different

    impacts

  • 10

    If You’re Keeping Score.....

    “Isolating and Assessing WX-related Air Traffic Delays”

    Ointment

    Several measures

    for “Weather Delay”

    Weather Impact may

    not be “Delay”

    Demand may swamp

    weather delay ‘signal’

    Not all weather

    is the same

  • 11

    ATL Weather (Volume) Delays due to Haze.....

    15 Jun 09 17 Jun 09

    07 Jul 09 08 Jul 09 10 Jul 09

    14 Jul 09 17 Jul 09 30 Aug 09

    09 Sep 09

    27 Jun 09

    ATL Arrival Holding

  • 12

    ATL Arrival Event (11-13 UTC)

    Morning GS? Holding Stack(s)? Number of Arrival

    Aircraft Holding

    15 Jun – Haze YES YES 14

    17 Jun – Haze YES YES 12

    27 Jun – Haze YES YES 20

    07 Jul – Haze YES YES 10

    08 Jul – Haze YES No -

    10 Jul – Haze YES YES 10

    14 Jul – Haze No YES 10

    17 Jul – Haze YES YES 5

    30 Aug – Haze YES YES 4

    09 Sep – Haze No YES 7

    07 Jul – Haze No No -

    23 Jul – Haze No No -

    24 Jul – Haze No No -

    04 Aug – Haze No No -

    05 Aug – Haze No No -

    08 Aug – Haze No No -

    09 Aug – Haze No No -

    24 Aug - Haze No No -

    2009

    2010

    ATL 2009: Haze = Bad; ATL 2010: Haze = 

    Mean Number of Holding Aircraft (1145-1300 UTC)

    2009 Haze Event: 8.2

    2009 No-Haze Event: 1.7

    2010 Haze Event: 0

  • 13

    01

    03

    05

    04

    02

    02

    02

    02

    01

    01

    01 1805

    1810

    1815

    1820

    1825

    1830

    TIROE

    TMA TGUI Display

    Estimated Time of Arrival

    (ETA)

    Scheduled Time of Arrival

    (STA)

    2009 – ATL Metering began at 1500 UTC

    2010 – ATL Metering at 1030 UTC controls early morning push (and primary haze impact period)

    01 Jun – 31 Aug 2009 2010 % Change

    1100-1200 UTC 78 66 -15%

    1200-1300 UTC 121 100 -17%

    0000-2359 UTC 1388 1337 -4%

    • Delta Air Lines (DAL) “de-peaked” morning

    ATL arrival schedule in summer 2010 vs. 2009 *

    ATL Scheduled Arrivals (Daily Average)

    * Schedule information courtesy of Delta Air Lines

    WX Folks Are Not the Only Ones Trying to

    Help Address NAS Efficiency Problems.....

    New / Alternative TFM Procedures Airline Schedule Changes

  • 14

    Integrated

    Collaborative

    Rerouting

    (ICR)

    NAS / TFM Evolution * (Significant delay / performance

    drivers)

    2005 Today

    GDP in

    support

    of SWAP

    Airspace

    Flow

    Programs

    (AFP)

    New

    Runway

    ATL

    Low-rate /

    ‘Surgical’

    GDP

    Tactics

    New

    Runway

    ORD

    Time-Based

    Flow

    Management

    (TBFM)

    Route Availability

    Planning Tool

    (RAPT)

    RNAV / RNP

    Routings &

    Procedures

    ASDE-X

    Data &

    Surface

    Awareness

    NY

    Airspace

    Redesign

    Airline Capacity, Load Factor,

    Schedule Evolution

    FAR-117 Crew-time

    Requirements

    TFM / ATC

    Workforce

    Evolution

    Flow Constrained /

    Evaluation Areas

    (FCA, FEA)

    Reroute

    Impact

    Assessment

    (RRIA)

    Metroplex

    Optimization

    of Airspace

    & Procedures

    (OAPM)

    New

    Runway

    ORD

    New

    Runway

    SEA

    * This is a sampling

  • 15

    Assessing WX Impacts and Impact

    Management Performance IS DOABLE,

    but tread carefully.....

    • Know your wx impact metric – what it is and what it is not

    • WX impacts are mo