Blue Earth 16Dec 2015

Crop

Weather Outlook

2017 & Beyond

• Before the Pyramids, people knew the sun appeared in different places according to season. The Moon too.

• But, for the Moon, it was 18.6 years after the Moon came up furthest North until it did it again.

Super Moon Flood Tide

•

Dr. Tiffany Troxler and correspondent David Begnaud in a street suffering from a “king tide” made worse by the supermoon. CBS NEWS

Chinook

Wind Shift With Season

Wind Shift with time of Day

Wind Shift with time of Day

2016 10 days of low wind in June

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=173&network=SD_ASOS&zstation=YKN&units=mph&_opt_p1=on&p1=0501-0510&_

Rain days per year have increased substantially

y = 0.0517x - 69.076

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Ames, IA Precipitation by year 1893-2007

100+ yr Precipitation, 20%+ increase

1950-1993 Precipitation

Most of the United States experienced significant precipitation increase. Diminished Tropical Storms impacted Florida.

Heavy rain events are more common?

Increased River Flow (NE Iowa)

y = 6.932x - 12627

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Turkey River at Garber, IA

6-fold increase of Flood Prone Years

2-fold increase in annual river flow

Kishwaukee @ DeKalb

y = 18.825x - 35716

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

mea

n an

nual

cfs

Year

Nishnabotna @Hamburg, IAhttp://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/ia/nwis/annual

(SW Iowa)

2-fold increase in annual river flow

6-fold increase of Flood Prone Years

stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4

137

Beyond

History Forecast

Farmer Benner in 1885 noted dry/wet cycle. Dust Bowl

1992-2004

Periodic Impacts IA Corn

020406080

100120140160180

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Bu/

aIA Corn1-in-3 chance of drought

vs 1-in-12 or 13

Farmer Benner

•

On the average drought has a an 18.6 yr. period.

2012

Weather Volatility

Climate RISK in Agriculture is likely to be greater during the next 20 years Management of RISK is of increasing importance

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif

Gleissberg

19 yr Dry/Wet Tree rings indicate climate cycles.

wet

dry

Heat & Water Stress

& 90 year cycles

Tree Rings Roanoke, NC cypress tree. Dennis Blanton, Wm & Mary College, David Stahle, Univ. of Arkansas.

U.S. drought starts here.

800 Year Rain (Virginia)

La Nina : Extremes

How to Evaluate the Crop Year

Part 1: Knowing the Yield Trend

http://yourweatherservice.com/

http://yourweatherservice.com/

Annual precipitation 27.64 inch

•

NOTE

•

mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/acv

•

mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/acv

•

mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/acv

•

Webster County IA

• What changed: 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014? • Were 1999 & 2000 identical?

•

•

• The USDA yield estimate is based on : – Crop Development – Crop Condition – Some factors that influence yield do not

show up in the estimate considerations. • Growing Degree Days, Heat Stress, Relative

Precipitation

mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/acv

M

flood

X

X

X

2009 High Yield SE SD 2011 Low Yield SE SD

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=SDCLIMATE&station=SDC009&year=2011&var=low&dpi=100&_fmt=png

• mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=32

•

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=108

•

mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=108

Flood Low Big

Flood Low Big

Flood Low Big

Low Low High

Low Low High

Low Low High

High High Low

High High Low

High High Low

Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University

Climatologist

END

WWW.twitter.com/elwynntaylor setaylor@iastate.edu

County Yield Trend and My Yield Trend

• 30-year trend for Corn and Soy is publically available for the Nation, state, and most Corn belt counties.

• Graphs, interactive graphs, and data sets are available at: mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/acv

• Expand the map to find your county and click on any “red” spot shown in the county (a few counties do not have yield trend, so use one adjacent to the original choice).

• After locating the county of interest, click on any red spot and then click “Select this station” then select “Yield Trend.”

• See the 30-year trend with yearly yields and options to see the numerical values for yield and yield trend. (you will later compute the % deviation from the trend for chosen years.)

Know the yield record for your farm and for your county.

•

The bushel per acre yield is important, but the “Time Trend” is essential to the evaluation of the crop success (or failure). Do not judge a crop by the Bushel yield as compared to yields of a few years past. Yields over time are best evaluated by comparative “percent of trend.” First get your county yield history. The trend is ideally determined from a 30-year record. County yield records (displayed as a graph or as a data sheet) are available from “mygeohub…” a website produced by a consortium of extension across the Midwest. Second compile the history and trend of the fields or farms you operate. Do not despair because you record is less than 30 years, use the records you have. Most accomplish this using Microsoft Excel or the equivalent. Should you not have the spreadsheet program or are less than comfortable operating it I suggest employing a 12-yr old in this project (if your local youth refuses, ask for a suggested computer geek he/she knows). The Excel program will plot yields according to year and insert a trend line, equation of the trend line, and compute what the trend yield is for each year. You can have it display the yield as a percent of trend for any chosen year or years. A yield that is 90% (or less) of the trend legally a drought. It is useful to take note of yield as a percent of trend for the evaluation of “Good,