Weather Forecasting and Weather Forecasting and PredictionPrediction

Methods of ForecastingMethods of Forecasting

Step 1 - Outside!Step 1 - Outside! Step 2 - Satellite mapsStep 2 - Satellite maps Step 3 - Radar imageryStep 3 - Radar imagery Step 4 - Surface and upper air mapsStep 4 - Surface and upper air maps Step 5 - Computer modelsStep 5 - Computer models Step 6 - Forecast experience/educationStep 6 - Forecast experience/education

Step 1 – What’s Happening OutsideStep 1 – What’s Happening Outside

Cloud Types (High, Middle, Low, Cloud Cloud Types (High, Middle, Low, Cloud Cover)Cover)

SunshineSunshine TemperatureTemperature Winds (Direction, Speed)Winds (Direction, Speed) Dewpoint (How Sticky Is It)Dewpoint (How Sticky Is It) Precipitation (Rain, Snow, Sleet)Precipitation (Rain, Snow, Sleet) Lightning and ThunderLightning and Thunder

High CloudsHigh Clouds

A Sign of Upper Level Moisture, A Sign of Upper Level Moisture, Precipitation or Storms Possible within 24 Precipitation or Storms Possible within 24 HoursHours

Middle CloudsMiddle Clouds

If Seen In Morning with Vertical If Seen In Morning with Vertical Development, Possibility of PM T-stormsDevelopment, Possibility of PM T-storms

Low CloudsLow Clouds

Usually Little Precipitation (Drizzle, Light Usually Little Precipitation (Drizzle, Light Rain, Snow Shower)Rain, Snow Shower)

Cumulonimbus – Thunderstorms Cumulonimbus – Thunderstorms ApproachingApproaching

Local ObservationsLocal Observations

Metar ReportsMetar Reports KLNS 140053Z 02008KT 9SM -RA BKN015 OVC024 KLNS 140053Z 02008KT 9SM -RA BKN015 OVC024

14/13 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB50 SLP104 P0000 T01440128 14/13 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB50 SLP104 P0000 T01440128 First the station, then the date and time (Z = GMT), then First the station, then the date and time (Z = GMT), then

the wind direction (first three digits) and speed (last two the wind direction (first three digits) and speed (last two digits) and the abbreviation KT for knots. Then the visibility, digits) and the abbreviation KT for knots. Then the visibility, in SM (statute miles), the present weather (if any), and the in SM (statute miles), the present weather (if any), and the sky cover. The two numbers separated by a slash are the sky cover. The two numbers separated by a slash are the temperature and dew point, in Celsius. Then comes the temperature and dew point, in Celsius. Then comes the altimeter setting, in hundredths of an inch of mercury, altimeter setting, in hundredths of an inch of mercury, preceded by an A. Finally comes the remarks.preceded by an A. Finally comes the remarks.

Step 2 – Satellite MapsStep 2 – Satellite Maps

We Have Satellites That Orbit Around the We Have Satellites That Orbit Around the Earth and Take Photos of The CloudsEarth and Take Photos of The Clouds

There are Several Types of Satellite There are Several Types of Satellite Pictures Pictures – Visible (Shows Land, Water, Clouds)Visible (Shows Land, Water, Clouds)– Water Vapor (Shows Atmospheric Water Vapor)Water Vapor (Shows Atmospheric Water Vapor)– Infrared (Bounces Radiation Off Clouds, Can Infrared (Bounces Radiation Off Clouds, Can

See Fog and Snow Cover)See Fog and Snow Cover)

Visible Satellite ImageVisible Satellite Image

Water Vapor Satellite ImageWater Vapor Satellite Image

Infrared Satellite ImageInfrared Satellite Image

Radar ImageryRadar Imagery

Nexrad (Next Generation Radar)Nexrad (Next Generation Radar) 150+ Doppler Radars150+ Doppler Radars Detects PrecipitationDetects Precipitation Wind Direction and VelocityWind Direction and Velocity Radar Dish Sends Out Pulse Which Radar Dish Sends Out Pulse Which

Bounces Off Clouds and Precipitation and Bounces Off Clouds and Precipitation and Returns Back to the DishReturns Back to the Dish

Surface and Upper Air MapsSurface and Upper Air Maps

Shows Features (High Pressure, Low Shows Features (High Pressure, Low Pressure)Pressure)

Wind Direction and VelocityWind Direction and Velocity Heights of Pressure LevelsHeights of Pressure Levels TemperaturesTemperatures

Computer ModelsComputer Models

Take Mathematical Formulas and Take Mathematical Formulas and Climatology Data and Predict What Will Be Climatology Data and Predict What Will Be Going On In the AtmosphereGoing On In the Atmosphere

Predictions Out to 16 Days, However, Best Predictions Out to 16 Days, However, Best Data Within 3-7 DaysData Within 3-7 Days

NAM (North American Model)NAM (North American Model) GFS (Global Forecast System)GFS (Global Forecast System) European, Canadian, + Many MoreEuropean, Canadian, + Many More

Forecast Experience/EducationForecast Experience/Education

Know Geography and Climate of the Area Know Geography and Climate of the Area You are ForecastingYou are Forecasting

Understand Forecast Model TrendsUnderstand Forecast Model Trends Remember the Weather Can Change at Any Remember the Weather Can Change at Any

Moment without WarningMoment without Warning Understand the Processes That Occur In Understand the Processes That Occur In

The AtmosphereThe Atmosphere