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Weather Discussion
4/24/12
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ENSO UPDATE
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Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (oC)
Longitude
Time
From September 2011- January 2012, below-average SSTs were evident across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Since February 2012, above-average SSTs have persisted in the eastern Pacific, while negative anomalies have gradually weakened in the central Pacific.
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Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
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SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were below average in the central and east-central Pacific and above average in the eastern Pacific.
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Weekly Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Average Temperature Anomalies
Positive subsurface anomalies were evident from March-July 2011. Negative anomalies developed in late July 2011. The negative anomalies began weakening in January 2012 and have recently become positive.
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• During the last two months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies became near-average to above-average across the eastern equatorial Pacific.
• During the recent period, near-surface positive anomalies are evident in portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (oC) in the Equatorial Pacific
Most recent pentad analysisLongitude
Time
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Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 17 April 2012).
• The majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere spring, continuing through the remainder of 2012. • The average dynamical model forecast is slightly warmer than the statistical models and favor El Niño conditions during the last half of 2012.
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Official Probabilistic ENSO Outlook(updated 5 Apr 2012)
ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer.
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SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Issued 23 April 2012
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts El Niño conditions to develop by JJA 2012.(not PDF corrected)
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Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
200-hPa Wind
From mid-February to mid-April, above-average 500-hPa heights persisted over central and eastern North America, accompanied by above-average temperatures. During most of the period, below-average 500-hPa heights and temperatures were evident near the western coast of North America.
925-hPa Temp. Anoms. (oC)500-hPa Height & Anoms.
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U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During the Last 30 and 90 Days
30-day (ending 21 Apr 2012) temperature departures (degree C)
90-day (ending 20 Apr 2012) % of average precipitation 90-day (ending 21 Apr 2012)
temperature departures (degree C)
Last 30 Days
Last 90 Days
30-day (ending 20 Apr 2012) % of average precipitation
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Big Convective Outbreak east of the Cascades
6 PM
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Satellite
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_west+/24h/2h
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+/24h/
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Lightning
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ltnw+36
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_ltng_common+48
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Radar
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?pdt_ncr+/24h/60m
• Otx• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/lo
ops/wxloop.cgi?pdt_n0v+/24h/60m
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Storm Total
• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir_ltng_common+48
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24-h precip
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Heppner, June 14, 19033rd deadliest flash flood in U.S. history
(247)
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Not a great forecast by WRF
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• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d3_pcp3+2012042312///3
• Good capehttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/
loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_mcape+2012042312//84/3
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Nam only slightly better
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HRRR Impressive
• http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus15min/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_15min:&runTime=2012042318&plotName=cref15min_t1sfc&fcstInc=15&numFcsts=61&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1&wjet=1
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But no obvious trigger…