Weather - Climate - Society · of weather and climate models, understanding of the coupled...
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Federally Funded Research and Development Center for the National Science Foundation, and while NSF continues to be NCAR's primary sponsor, research is also funded by other federal agencies, as well as commercial and international entities. As a national center, NCAR interacts broadly with both the research and operational communities, leveraging resources and bringing them to bear across disciplines to address complex problems. NCAR scientists and engineers take a focused research, development and technology transfer approach to weather and climate events affecting society: • Conducting research directed at improved understanding of the atmospheric and hydrological processes behind natural disasters. • Developing tools customized for specific applications (e.g., better observations, models, data assimilation techniques, etc.) to improve forecasts and inform planning and management decisions. • Integrating knowledge, tools and technologies to create new decision support capabilities. • Transferring these new tools and systems to end users and providing support for their use. Several examples of this work with clear relevance to the study of disasters and the environment are highlighted below. Water Resources There is simply no way to overstate the importance of water to life on Earth. While the water cycle may look simple when drawn by a text book diagram, understanding the complex, interconnected cloud, precipitation, and surface hydrological processes within the water cycle presents significant Weather - Climate - Society Improving Resilience to Extreme Weather Background Decision and policy makers are increasingly searching for better weather and climate information to guide them in planning for, managing, and responding to disasters. The cause of a given disaster is likely to be a complex combination of both natural and human factors that may prove difficult to unravel. The impact of a disaster is equally complex with cascading consequences for human life, infrastructure, and natural ecoystems. The intersection of extreme, high- impact weather events and changing climate conditions with continued population growth, urbanization, and human settlement of hazard-prone coastal regions makes it ever more likely that disasters will become more frequent and more consequential in the future. The scientific community can provide useful, useable information and guidance to decision makers to support them in forecasting hazardous weather and climate conditions, communicating advisories and warnings, and planning impact mitigation, emergency response, and recovery strategies. These efforts will require skill in working across disciplines, organizations, and political boundaries using knowledge and tools developed within the natural and social science communities. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) NCAR was founded in 1959 to bring together the ideas, people and tools needed to address the scientific questions that are of critical importance to society. Fundamental scientific and infrastructural contributions to the research and operational communities have been made in such areas as development of weather and climate models, understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system, understanding of the detailed chemistry of the stratosphere and troposphere, and the socio-economic impacts of severe weather. NCAR is a Toxic Airborne Releases Atmospheric releases of hazardous materials, either accidental or intentional, pose a viable threat to the public and to U.S. troops abroad and at home. NCAR works with the Department of Defense to conduct research and develop novel approaches to more accurately simulate the atmospheric evolution of the released material in both time and space. An important focus of this work area is the development of methods to characterize the source of a plume (size, time of release, location, etc.) based on downstream measurements, thus allowing for intervention if material continues to be released. The figure below shows a plume simulation for a hypothetical release over complex terrain, with the skull and crossbones symbol depicting the point of release. This work is critical for planning, real-time response, and forensic purposes. This area of research has led to NCAR’s involvement in studies of the recent release of radioactive material from a damaged power plant in Fukushima, Japan. Unfortunately, there is a good deal of scientific uncertainty regarding the amount of radioactive material released, as well as the scope of the radiation fallout. Environmental impacts are therefore not well-understood, thus making it extremely difficult to make critical public safety decisions. To examine these issues more closely, NCAR hosted an international conference in February 2012. Recommendations regarding scientific options for providing more accurate quantification of the amount of airborne radiation released from the Fukushima power plant are being prepared and will be delivered to Japanese officials to address their immediate needs. Results, as well as plans for a new research agenda, will be published in a peer-reviewed journal to inform the broader scientific community. Communicating Risk And Uncertainty The ultimate goal of weather forecast and warning systems is to provide usable information for decision-making. There is, however, little empirical knowledge on how people communicate, interpret, and use currently available weather forecast and warning information, much less new or improved information. There is even less knowledge of the public’s understanding of the uncertainty and risk which is inherent in these communications. Research is therefore focusing on improving communication of forecast advisories and warnings by examining processes through which they are developed, the resulting content and communication channels used by various actors in this process, and how at-risk residents, including more vulnerable populations, comprehend and react to specific components of advisories and warnings. Through empirical surveys, in-depth interviews, and focused qualitative methods with members of the media, emergency managers, and the public, researchers are assessing the public’s awareness and understanding of, and preferences for, weather information. They are also making recommendations on ways to improve communication of risk and uncertainty. For More Information, Contact: William P. Mahoney, Deputy Director National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Applications Laboratory PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 303-497-8426 303-497-8401 fax [email protected] www.ral.ucar.edu National Center for Atmospheric Research A simulated plume of hazardous material hypothetically released into the atmosphere in complex terrain, superimposed on a mea- sured plume. The standard approach would estimate the release occurred where the black dot is shown, while in fact the actual release point is located at the skull and crossbones symbol.
Transcript of Weather - Climate - Society · of weather and climate models, understanding of the coupled...
Federally Funded Research and Development Center for the National Science Foundation, and while NSF continues to be NCAR's primary sponsor, research is also funded by other federal agencies, as well as commercial and international entities.
As a national center, NCAR interacts broadly with both the research and operational communities, leveraging resources and bringing them to bear across disciplines to address complex problems. NCAR scientists and engineers take a focused research, development and technology transfer approach to weather and climate events affecting society:
• Conductingresearchdirectedatimprovedunderstandingof the atmospheric and hydrological processes behind natural disasters.
• Developing tools customized for specific applications(e.g., better observations, models, data assimilation techniques, etc.) to improve forecasts and inform planning and management decisions.
• Integratingknowledge, tools and technologies to createnew decision support capabilities.
• Transferringthesenewtoolsandsystemstoendusersandproviding support for their use.
Several examples of this work with clear relevance to the study of disasters and the environment are highlighted below.
Water ResourcesThereissimplynowaytooverstatetheimportanceofwaterto life on Earth. While the water cycle may look simple when drawn by a text book diagram, understanding the complex, interconnected cloud, precipitation, and surface hydrological processes within the water cycle presents significant
Weather - Climate - SocietyImproving Resilience to Extreme Weather
BackgroundDecision and policy makers are increasingly searching for better weather and climate information to guide them in planning for, managing, and responding to disasters. Thecause of a given disaster is likely to be a complex combination of both natural and human factors that may prove difficult to unravel. The impact of a disaster is equally complexwith cascading consequences for human life, infrastructure, and natural ecoystems. The intersection of extreme, high-impact weather events and changing climate conditions withcontinuedpopulationgrowth,urbanization,andhumansettlement of hazard-prone coastal regions makes it evermore likely that disasters will become more frequent and more consequential in the future.
The scientific community can provide useful, useableinformation and guidance to decision makers to support them in forecasting hazardous weather and climate conditions,communicating advisories and warnings, and planning impact mitigation, emergency response, and recovery strategies. Theseeffortswillrequireskillinworkingacrossdisciplines,organizations, and political boundaries using knowledgeand tools developed within the natural and social science communities.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)NCAR was founded in 1959 to bring together the ideas, people and tools needed to address the scientific questions that are of critical importance to society. Fundamental scientific and infrastructural contributions to the research and operational communities have been made in such areas as development of weather and climate models, understanding of the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system, understanding of thedetailed chemistry of the stratosphere and troposphere, and the socio-economic impacts of severe weather. NCAR is a
Toxic Airborne ReleasesAtmospheric releases of hazardous materials, eitheraccidental or intentional, pose a viable threat to the public and to U.S. troops abroad and at home. NCAR works with the Department of Defense to conduct research and develop novel approaches to more accurately simulate the atmospheric evolution of the released material in both time and space. An important focus of this work area is the developmentofmethodstocharacterizethesourceofaplume(size, time of release, location, etc.) based on downstreammeasurements, thus allowing for intervention if material continues to be released. The figure below shows a plumesimulation for a hypothetical release over complex terrain, with the skull and crossbones symbol depicting the point of release.Thisworkiscriticalforplanning,real-timeresponse,and forensic purposes.
This area of research has led to NCAR’s involvement instudies of the recent release of radioactive material from a damaged power plant in Fukushima, Japan. Unfortunately, there is a good deal of scientific uncertainty regarding the amount of radioactive material released, as well as the scope of the radiation fallout. Environmental impacts are therefore not well-understood, thus making it extremely difficult tomake critical public safety decisions. To examine theseissues more closely, NCAR hosted an international conference in February 2012. Recommendations regarding scientific options for providing more accurate quantification of the amount of airborne radiation released from the Fukushima power plant are being prepared and will be delivered to Japanese officials to address their immediate needs. Results, as well as plans for a new research agenda, will be published in a peer-reviewed journal to inform the broader scientificcommunity.
Communicating Risk And UncertaintyTheultimategoalofweather forecastandwarningsystemsis toprovideusable information fordecision-making.Thereis, however, little empirical knowledge on how people communicate, interpret, and use currently available weather forecast and warning information, much less new or improved information. There is even less knowledge of the public’sunderstanding of the uncertainty and risk which is inherent in these communications. Research is therefore focusing on improving communication of forecast advisories and warnings by examining processes through which they are developed, the resulting content and communication channels used by various actors in this process, and how at-riskresidents, including more vulnerable populations, comprehend and react to specific components of advisories and warnings. Throughempiricalsurveys,in-depthinterviews,andfocusedqualitative methods with members of the media, emergency managers, and the public, researchers are assessing the public’sawarenessandunderstandingof,andpreferencesfor,weatherinformation.Theyarealsomakingrecommendationson ways to improve communication of risk and uncertainty.
For More Information, Contact:William P. Mahoney, Deputy DirectorNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)Research Applications LaboratoryPOBox3000BoulderCO80307-3000303-497-8426 [email protected] www.ral.ucar.edu
National Center for Atmospheric Research
A simulated plume of hazardous material hypothetically released into the atmosphere in complex terrain, superimposed on a mea-sured plume. The standard approach would estimate the release occurred where the black dot is shown, while in fact the actual
release point is located at the skull and crossbones symbol.
aid local medical providers in timing the delivery and use of expensive, perishable vaccines. An on-going programin collaboration with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is cross-training post-doctoral scientists inpublic health and atmospheric science to help build a new generation of researchers who will work across traditional boundaries.
Urban IssuesUrban areas play crucial roles in climate and environmental change, not only as key sources of carbon and other air pollutants, but also as hotspots of vulnerability to water scarcity,floods,heatwaves,andotherhazardsthatclimatechangeisexpectedtoaggravate.Theserolescreateauniqueopportunity for cities to serve as centers of innovation, and laboratories for studying responses to environmental change. The Resilient and Sustainable Cities program atNCAR works across disciplines, and in collaboration with national and international organizations, to find new,more sustainable approaches to urban development. Thiswork is exploring the dynamics of urbanization and urbansystems that shape urban emissions, vulnerability and risk; investigating urban populations’ vulnerability to hazardsand stresses; examining how certain cities are reducing emissions while improving their resilience to environmental impacts; and building capacity to foster urban sustainability and resilience through educational, mentoring and outreach activitiesatthescience-policyinterface.
Research efforts are also focused on better understanding urban microclimates. Scientists are creating customizednumerical weather prediction models to create real-timeforecasts at multiple scales (down to the building level) within a city. Web-based graphical interfaces will allowrapid interpretation and decision making by multiple user groups such as emergency managers and those directing surface and air transport operations.
Wildland Fires Wildland fires are highly complex phenomena with substantial human, economic, and environmental impacts. Understanding the explosive and unique interplay of weather, topography, and fuels in a given fire requires new tools and decision support systems. NCAR scientists have worked for the past two decades to couple numerical weather prediction models that capture the effects of complex terrain on airflow with wildland fire models that assess the intertwined impacts of weather, fuel and terrain on fire growth, plume development and smoke transport. Funding is being sought to develop a decision support system that puts these new capabilities into the hands of fire managers and emergency response personnel. Such a system could be used for training, for planning prescribed burns, to identify conditions in which fires are most likely to blow up, for tactical or strategic decisions regarding fire suppression, and for emergency response support such as reverse 911 calls for notifications and evacuations.
Human HealthNCAR scientists are working to improve understanding of the complex interactions among weather and climate processes, ecosystems, and human health, particularly in light of increasingclimatevariabilityandchange.Toaccomplishthis,theyarecreatingappropriatelyscaledandintegratedsocial-physical models to facilitate the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce negative health outcomes. Understanding societal risks and vulnerabilities to weather hazards and climate change requires integration of geo-referenced information from physical and social sciences, including weather and climate data, information about natural and built environments, demographic characteristics, as well as social and behavioral processes.
Current research efforts are focused on understanding the spread of mosquitoes carrying dengue fever in Mexico and along the southern U.S. border, and rats spreading plague in Uganda and the Congo; a new program is examining the impact of clean cook stoves on air quality in Ghana. A multi-year project aimed at understanding the impact ofweather on the spread of meningitis in the African Sahel has led to the development of a decision support system to
scientific challenges. Current research at NCAR is focused on improving short-term storm prediction, characterizinghydrometeorological processes at the land-atmosphereinterface, improving cloudmicrophysical parameterizationsin models, quantifying the relationship between aerosols, clouds and precipitation, and more accurately representing thewatercycle inclimatemodels. This research isclearlyfocused both on current water availability issues, as well asthoselikelytofacetheplanetoverthenext25-50yearsas changing climate conditions increase the likelihood of drought and flooding.
In addition to generating new knowledge, researchers areimproving the tools required to better model and predict critical atmospheric and hydrological processes. New multi-physicscapabilitiesarebeingaddedtothecommunityWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and newreal-timefour-dimensionaldataassimilationtechniquesare providing important data inputs to the simulations. WRF is also being coupled with other, more specifically focusedmodelssuchas theNoah land-surfacemodelandadistributed hydrological modeling capability (WRF-Hydro).A new effort that combines WRF with advanced land surface and hydrological modeling components will create an integratedcrop-modelingcapability(WRF-Crop)forprecisionagriculture applications. Another important capability, the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool, developed withtheStockholmEnvironmentInstitute,couplesphysicalhydrology and water planning and management information within a single framework, allowing water resource managers to develop scenarios and strategies for more robust water management decision making in the face of climate change. WEAPiscurrentlybeinglinkedtoitspartnertool,theLong-range Energy Applications Program (LEAP) to explore the complex interactions, and potential collisions, between water and energy management decision making.
Extreme WeatherExtreme weather events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods have an enormous impact on people’s lives,the economy, and the natural world, yet there is little agreement on how to define “extreme” events or how best to predict them. Scientists at NCAR are analyzing andmodeling extreme weather and climate events in an effort to improve our ability to determine when and where they will occur. A statistical approach known as “extreme value analysis” is being used in studies of floods and hurricanes, as well as in efforts to model increased variability in weather patternsgivenchangingclimateconditions.Thoroughtestingand evaluation of hurricane and other hazardous weatherforecasts is accomplished within NCAR’s Joint NumericalTestbed.
Development of extreme weather decision support systems for emergency managers and first responders has recently been identified as a new R&D priority within NCAR. With more than 30 years’ experience in creating such systems for aviation,surface transportation, public weather, renewable energy andagriculturalapplications,NCAR’sResearchApplicationsLaboratory (RAL) has been a leader in developing weather prediction systems that blend data from numerical weather predictionmodels,statisticsdatasets,real-timeobservations,andhumanintelligencetooptimizeforecastsatuser-definedlocations. NCAR has the expertise to work with users and stakeholders to develop an understanding of their specific needs, preferences, and uses and communication of advanced weather and climate information, and the ability to design, build, and test the system for extreme weather applications. A key element of any new decision support systems will be the ability to devise mitigation and adaptation plans to deal with future extreme weather events under different climate change scenarios.
