We know enough to at least start
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Transcript of We know enough to at least start
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We know enough to at least start
Michael A. TaylorA. Anthony Chen, Tannecia Stephenson Jayaka Campbell, Rhodene Watson, AMD
Amarakoon
Climate Studies Group, MonaDepartment of Physics
University of the West Indies, Mona
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Climate change andsustainable development
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
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Climate change is happening…
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.'
'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. - IPCC (2007)
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Climate change is happening…
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.'
'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. - IPCC (2007)
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Climate change is happening…
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
For precipitation, analysis of updated trends and results for regions that were missing at the time of the TAR show increases in heavy events for the majority of observation stations, with some increase in flooding. This result applies both for areas where total precipitation has increased and for areas where total precipitation has even decreased. Increasing trends are also reported for more rare precipitation events…
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Climate change is happening…
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Climate models under various scenarios predict 1.4 – 5.8o C increase between 1990 and 2100.
Larger than any century scale increase ever seen before!
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Climate change is happening…
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion … Implications for the
Caribbean which is very climate sensitive.
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Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Agriculture
Tourism
Fisheries
Water
Infrastructure
Health
Climate change is happening…
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Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Agriculture Varying productivity due to floods and drought
Tourism Less demand – warmer world
Fisheries Supply less - warmer ocean rising sea levels
Water Variable supply - less rainfall
Infrastructure
Damage to coastal infrastructure - storm surge
Health More dengue - warmer temps
Climate change is happening…
IMPACTS
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Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Agriculture Varying productivity due to floods and drought
Protected agriculture
Tourism Less demand - warmer world
Diversified tourism
Fisheries Supply less - warmer ocean rising sea levels
Diversification of livelihood
Water Variable supply - less rainfall
Efficient usage
Infrastructure
Damage to coastal infrastructure - storm surge
Vulnerability mapping for zoning
Health More dengue - warmer temps
Epidemic alert systems
Climate change is happening…
IMPACTS Adaptation
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Climate change is happening…
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
… Adapting to climate change is a means of pursuing sustainable
development
… So why aren’t we doing it?
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Climate change is happening…
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Knowledge deficiencies“Don’t know enough about climate
change impacts on the region to either justify or risk action”
… So why aren’t we doing it?
Information NeedsRelevance – Targeted climate change info. Not globe, Caribbean.Appropriate Scale – Country and station level not globeConfidence – Trust the info.
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Climate change is happening…
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
We know more than we think we do!
Information exists today satisfying 3 criteria.
Illustrate with work of the Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM)
Dept. of PhysicsUniversity of the West Indies.
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Data Study: Taylor and Alfaro (2002)
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Mean Annual Rainfall
1. Dry Season
December - April
3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - August –November
2. Rainfall Season May - NovemberPeaks in September/October
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Movement of North Atlantic High (NAH)
•April - November
•Reduced vertical shear
SST Increase
•April-October (peak)
•>27oC
Easterly/Tropical Waves
•Late May-November
•3-5 days
•Strengthen
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
…by understanding the dynamics of the mean we can therefore understand
the deviations from the mean!
We have a good understanding of the dynamics of the mean
Caribbean climate…and…
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
El Niño and Caribbean RainfallSpence, Taylor et al. (2004)Taylor, Enfield et al. (2002)
Stephenson, Chen, Taylor (2007)
Use SVD and Correlation Analysis to analyse patterns of tropical
sea surface temperatures (SST) that co-vary with Caribbean
rainfall.
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall
•El Niño (La Niña) is an unusual warming (cooling) of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
•Prompts changes in weather patterns across the globe.
•Occurs irregularly at approximately 3-6 year intervals.
El Niño
La Niña
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall
160W 120W 80W 40W
20S
0
20N
40N
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
160W 120W 80W 40W
20S
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40N
-100-75-50-25 0 25 50 75 100
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
(a)
(c) (d)
(b) NDJ
FMA
160W 120W 80W 40W
20S
0
20N
40N
90W 80W 70W
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15N
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(a)
(c) (d)
(b) NDJ
FMA
ENSO SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during November - January
Wet north – dry south
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall
160W 120W 80W 40W
20S
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20N
40N
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(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
160W 120W 80W 40W
20S
0
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40N
90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
160W 120W 80W 40W
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90W 80W 70W
10N
15N
20N
(a)
(c) (d)
(b) NDJ
FMA
Atlantic SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during May - July
Wet Caribbean (El Nino+1 year)
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall
Atlantic SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during August - October
160W 120W 80W 40W
20S
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20N
40N
90W 80W 70W
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15N
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90W 80W 70W
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(a) (b)
(c) (d)
MJJ
ASO
Dry region
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall
Since El Niño predictable with lead time of few months…
…possible to do seasonal forecasts for Caribbean region….
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall
Plot of forecasted versus observed rainfall anomalies for southeastern Caribbean for model using El Niño (September-October) predictor. Dashed lines and circles represent forecasted values (Ashby, Taylor et al. 2005)
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Caribbean Climate Dynamics
Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall
Since El Niño predictable with lead time of few months…
…possible to do seasonal forecasts for Caribbean region….
…and enable planning!
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion Info exists
on future climate for Caribbean
from GCMs….
Model-simulated temperature/ precipitation response to forcing scenario. Scenario is depicted by colour of the point (A1FI - red, A2 - grey, B1 - green and B2 - violet). Ovals show 95% Gaussian contour ellipses of the natural internal tridecadal variability.
…but scale too coarse!
Hotter
Wett
er
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
•PRECIS is a regional model (15 km - 50 km).
•Run over a Caribbean domain exclusively
•Forced at boundaries by GCMs
•Performs reasonably well with current climate.
•Run for a time slice in the future (2070-2099), A2, B1 and B2 scenarios
•Run for baseline (1960-1990) to evaluate change.
•Done as part of a collaborative project (Cuba, Belize, Barbados)
PRECIS Caribbean Project
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
PRECIS Caribbean Project
Cuba(INSMET)
Carib basin50 x 50 km
B1 (30 yrs)A2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)Reanalysis (15 yrs)
Jamaica – UWI (Mona) Carib Basin50 x 50 km
A2 (30 yrs)B2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)
Barbados – UWI (Cave Hill)
Eastern Caribbean25 x 25 km
A2 (30 yrs)B2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Temperatures
Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm.Warming between 1 and 5oC
Warming greater under A2 scenario.
Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe.
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Temperatures
Warming is year round.
Nowhere and at no time in the year is the Caribbean cooler than present.
Summer warming greatest.
Under A2 warming up to 5oC in larger islands
Sea surface temperatures also warmer
DJF
JJA
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Rainfall
For both scenarios Caribbean is in general drier.
Up to 30% drier.
Drying more severe under A2 scenario
Far north Caribbean however could be wetter
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Temperatures
Southern Caribbean dry year round.
Far north Caribbean wetter between December and March
Drying in late season (when normally get most rain) most severe.
DJF
JJA
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Vertical shear
Annual
SON
In the mean there is stronger shear in main Caribbean basin, particularly across the main development region (MDR)
In wet season, the change in shear is positive and high.
Pattern consistent with rainfall changes.
Pattern for A2 most severe.
Strengthening at lower levels evident (not shown)
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Cloud Cover
Jan
Sept
General reduction in cloud cover year round in main Caribbean basin.
Pattern consistent with rainfall changes.
Reduction for A2 most severe.
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Extreme weather
PRECIS
•Can identify hurricane like features
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Other work underwayStatistical downscaling –
generating future climates at country and station scale e.g.
Kingston Airport, Piarco.
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
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ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Confidence?
• Trendlines significant at 1% level
•Frequency of Hot days and hot nights increasing
•True for rest of world. (nights > days)
Peterson, Taylor et al. (2002)
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Future Caribbean ClimatePremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Confidence?
Peterson, Taylor et al. (2002)
• Trendlines significant at 1% level
•Frequency of cool days and nights decreasing
•True for rest of world.
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
The Threat of Dengue Fever – Assessments of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean
- Chen et al. (2006)
Funded by Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
• Climate data from regional Met Services. Temperature (maximum, minimum and
mean) and Precipitation, daily or monthly values. Climate data for Jamaica were supplemented by gridded data from Tyndall Centre, UEA, UK (Tim Mitchell).
• Epidemiological data from the Caribbean Epidemiological Center (CAREC) In the form of reported dengue cases and
vector indices, annual, 4-week periods. • Data analysis: Analysis of time series of
reported cases, rates of change, mean temperature, mean precipitation, temperature and precipitation anomalies. Study of the climatology Statistical tests for correlations and multiple linear regression.
• Main study period: 1980 to 2001.• Data from Jamaica and Trinidad.
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
Time series graph of dengue cases (4-Week periods in Trinidad & Tobago)
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Year
Rai
nfal
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m)
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epor
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Dengue Cases
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Seasonal pattern to
dengue outbreaks
…
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
Hot Wet
Dengue
Time series graph of rainfall, dengue cases & average temperature(4-Week periods in Trinidad & Tobago)
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Aver
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(C)
Rainfall Dengue Cases Average Temperature
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
Linkage to El NiñoDue to
rainfall and temperature changes
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
Future 2o C rise in
temperature suggests increased dengue
threat due to climate
change
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
M
N
N
M
T
1
Moving Average Temperature Index
TN is the average temperature during the Nth 4 week period or month
M = 1, 2, 3,…13 or 12.
Examples:
For 1st 4 week period or 1st month, M=1 and
For 2nd period or month, M=2 and
For 4th period or month M= 4 and
(MAT) =
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Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
MAT useful as
forbearer of epidemic
onset…
RC,Moving Average T vs 4-Weekly periods (1992, 1994, 1999, & 2001) T & T
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4 WEEK PERIODS
Rep
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ases
(R
C)-
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MA
T in
C
RC-1992
RC-1994
RC-1999
RC-2001
MAT-1992
MAT-1994
MAT-1999
MAT-2001
27.2 C Line
Climate-Sectoral Linkages
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Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Dengue
MAT useful as part of
disease early
warning scheme!
Climate-Sectoral Linkages
MAT & Climate
forecasts
Ongoing epidemiological
surveillance and
environmental observations
Disease
watch/warning
Risk analysis,
vulnerability
assessment
Response
Strategy
Public
communication
Evaluation,
feedback
Ongoing prevention and evaluation
Surveillance Analysis Response
Response Implementation
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Climate-Sectoral LinkagesPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Water
Similar work ongoing for the water sector in Jamaica. (Chen and Taylor, 2008)
Avg A2B2 Annual % Change for Box 3 Area
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
2015s 2030s 2050s 2080s
Hope R.
Manley
URCR
Box 3
Average of A2 and B2 projected changes in streamflow at Hope River and precipitation at Manley, URCR and in region 3 for 2015s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s
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Final ThoughtsPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
We know more…Caribbean Climate Science has advanced much in recent past
• Good idea of dynamics governing mean Caribbean climate and those governing deviations from mean - RELEVANCE
• Good idea of future climate of Caribbean as a whole and of individual territories – SCALE
• Good idea of how climate changed in past – CONFIDENCE
• Good idea of some linkages between society and climate – RELEVANCE
Knowledge deficit perhaps not as wide…
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Final ThoughtsPremise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Adaptation is a viable option…?• Efforts underway to mainstream
climate predictions into daily life.• We are in a good position (at least
based on what is known) as a region to assess the threat due to climate change and to suggest reasonable adaptation options.
Should not be afraid to do so… less fear and trepidation.
Adaption options = Sustainable development options
• Begin to adapt to climate change => on path to sustainable development
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Premise
Dynamics
ProjectionsPractical Links
Conclusion
Thank You
We know enough to at least start