We add value as one company - BASF · We add value as one company. Ingo Rose. Director ... readers...

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1 We add value as one company Ingo Rose Director Investor Relations Deutsche Bank ADR Virtual Investor Conference March 17, 2016

Transcript of We add value as one company - BASF · We add value as one company. Ingo Rose. Director ... readers...

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 1

    We add value as one company

    Ingo Rose

    DirectorInvestor Relations

    Deutsche Bank ADR Virtual Investor Conference

    March 17, 2016

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 2

    150 years

    Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements

    This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. Forward-looking statements may include, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand. BASF has based these forward-looking statements on its views and assumptions with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and BASF does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 3

    150 years

    BASF Share information

    Symbol: BAS

    Trading Platform: Deutsche Brse

    ISIN: DE000BASF111

    IPO: January 30, 1952

    Type of shares: Registered shares

    Trading lot: none, one share is tradable

    Free float (according to Deutsche Brse):100 %

    Number of subscribed shares outstanding (as of 12/31/2015):918,478,694

    Symbol: BASFY

    OTC Trading Platform: OTCQX

    CUSIP: 055262505

    Ratio: 1 ADR : 1 Ordinary Share

    Depositary bank: Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas Tel: +1 212 250 9100 (New York broker desk) Tel: +44 207 547 6500 (London broker desk) E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.adr.db.com

    Depositary banks local custodian: Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt

    Ordinary Share information ADR information

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 4

    150 years

    Chemistry as an enabler BASF has superior growth

    opportunities: sustainable innovations investments emerging markets

    The #1 chemical company 70.4 billion sales, 6.7

    billion EBIT bSI in 2015 #1-3 in ~70% of businesses,

    in almost all countries 6 integrated Verbund sites,

    production in 60 countries

    A track record of strong sales and earnings growth

    >3.5% dividend yield in every single year from 2006-2015

    ~54 billion market capitalization Feb. 2016

    PerspectiveLudwigshafen,Germany

    Antwerp,Belgium

    Nanjing,China

    Kuantan,MalaysiaGeismar,

    USAFreeport,USA

    Verbund site

    Positioning

    We create chemistry for a sustainable future

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20142013 2015

    Performance

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 5

    150 years

    Global reduction in carbon emissions of 6 million metric tons/a. and reduction of waste

    Example Ludwigshafen site:avoidance of 7 million metric tons of freight/a.= 280,000 fewer truckloads

    Shared use of on-site facilities: fire department, security, waste water treatment and analytics

    Verbund: Unique competitive advantage

    * Savings include only tangible synergies. Additional (intangible) benefits and retained profits are not included.

    Verbund generates >1 billion p.a. global cost savings* & supports sustainability

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 6

    150 years

    Percentage of sales 2015*

    * Not depicted here: ~4% of Group sales reported as Other ** Natural Gas Trading has been sold Sep. 30, 2015 to Gazprom.

    BASF today a well-balanced portfolioTotal sales 2015: 70.4 billion

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 7

    150 years

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    2006 2007 2008 2009** 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Strong free cash development 2015

    * Cash provided by operating activities less capex ** 2009 adjusted for re-classification of settlement payments for currency derivatives

    Free cash flow*(in billion )

    3.53.2

    2.5

    3.2

    3.9 3.7

    2.6

    3.2

    1.7

    3.6

    Diagramm1

    3.529

    3.245

    2.502

    3.186

    3.912

    3.695

    2.587

    3.21

    1.7

    3.6

    Free Cash Flow

    Sheet1

    2006200720082009**201020112012201320142015

    Free Cash Flow3.5293.2452.5023.1863.9123.6952.5873.2101.73.6

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 8

    150 years

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    2006 2009 2012 2015

    2.90

    We want to grow or at least maintain our dividend

    Dividend proposal of 2.90per share, an increase of 3.6%

    Dividend yield of 4.1% in 2015

    Dividend yield above 3.5%in any given year since 2006

    4.6%

    Key facts 2015

    0.50

    1.00

    1.50

    2.00

    * Dividend yield based on share price at year-end

    4.1% 3.8% 7.0% 3.9% 3.7%Yield*

    Proposal:

    3.7%

    2.50

    3.5%

    3.00

    4.0% 4.1%

    1.50

    1.95 1.951.70

    2.202.50 2.60

    2.70

    Dividend policy

    2.80

    Dividend per share(in )

    Attractive shareholder return

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 9

    150 years

    Average annual performance with dividends reinvested

    0 3 6 9 12

    Euro Stoxx 50

    DAX 30

    MSCI World Chemicals

    +5.1%

    Last 5 yearsMarch 2011 February 2016

    +3.4%

    +2.6%

    +5.5%

    +4.9%

    Last 10 yearsMarch 2006 February 2016

    BASF

    +6.2%

    +0.6%

    +10.7%

    Delivering consistent, long-term value

    Diagramm1

    6.2

    5.1

    0.6

    10.7

    Ost

    9.1%

    12.0%

    8.1%

    Sheet1

    MSCI WorldDAXEuro StoxxBASF

    Ost6.25.100.610.7

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 10

    Path forward: Our priorities 2016 & beyond

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 11

    150 years

    Outlook 2016Expectations for the global economy

    2015 (actual)

    GDP 2.4%

    Chemicals (excl. pharma) 3.6%

    Industrial production 2.0%

    US$ / Euro 1.11

    Oil price: Brent (US$ / bbl) 52

    Forecast 2016

    2.3%

    3.4%

    2.0%

    1.10

    40

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 12

    150 years

    Outlook 2016BASF Group

    Sales will be considerably below prior year, due to the divestiture of the Natural Gas Trading and Storage activities and the lower oil & gas prices.

    Excluding the effects of acquisitions and divestitures, we expect higher volumes in all segments.

    We expect EBIT before special items to be slightly below the previous yeardriven by drastically lower earnings of Oil & Gas. We plan higher earnings in our chemicals business and in the Agricultural Solutions segment.

    EBIT after cost of capital is expected to be significantly below prior year. However, we still expect to earn a premium on our cost of capital.

    In the volatile and challenging macroeconomic environment, we regard our targets for 2016 as ambitious. Achieving them will depend on the development of the oil price.

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 13

    150 years

    EBIT before special items

    Million 2015 Forecast 2016

    Chemicals 2,156 considerable decreasePerformance Products 1,366 slight increaseFunctional Materials & Solutions 1,649 slight increaseAgricultural Solutions 1,090 slight increaseOil & Gas 1,366 considerable decreaseOther (888) considerable increase

    BASF Group 6,739 slight decrease

    Outlook 2016 Forecast by segment

    With respect to EBIT before special items, slight means a change of 1-10%, while considerable is used for changes greater than 11%. At prior-year level indicates no change (+/-0%).

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 14

    150 years

    Priorities 2016

    Focus on capex discipline:

    Reduce capital expenditures to 4.2 billion in 2016 Cost control and operational excellence:

    DrivE targeting ~1 billion earnings contribution by 2018 Portfolio optimization ongoing:

    E.g. agreement to sell industrial coatings business to AkzoNobel Strong commitment to innovation:

    Maintain R&D spending at ~1.95 billion in 2016

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 15

    150 years

    CapexInvestments for organic growth

    Performance Products16%

    Oil & Gas24%

    19.5billion

    FunctionalMaterials &Solutions12%

    Capex budget 2016-2020

    Other14%

    Chemicals30%

    Capex budget 2016-2020

    Asia Pacific18%

    19.5billion

    South America*9%

    North America26%

    Europe46%

    AgriculturalSolutions4%

    Other1%

    by segment by region

    * Including Africa and Middle East

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 16

    150 years

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    2015 2018

    Annual earnings contribution(in million )

    Targeted annual earnings contribution of 1 billion by end of 2018

    Optimization of processes and structures in all regions, e.g. manufacturing incremental capacities productivity increase

    Project timeline: 20162018

    DrivE program

    Operational excellenceDrivE with ~1 bn earnings contribution

    NEXT 2008-2011 DrivE 2016-2018

    STEP 2012-2015

    Diagramm1

    2015100013002015

    2018100013001000

    Sheet1!#REF!

    NEXT

    STEP

    NewPro

    Sheet1

    201420152018

    NEXT100010001000

    STEP100013001300

    NewPro1000

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 17

    150 years

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    Operational excellence Strong track record

    EBITDA

    Sales

    * Excl. companies with major IFRS 10/11 restatements, i.e. BASF YPC Nanjing, Libya onshore, other Oil & Gas and Catalysts companies

    BASF Group* 20012015(Index; CAGR 20012015)

    Fixed Costs

    CAGREBITDA

    9%

    CAGRSales

    6%

    CAGRFixed Costs3%

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 18

    150 years

    Functional crop care Personal care & food Omega-3 fatty acids Enzymes Battery materials Specialty plastics Selected assets in

    Oil & Gas

    BASFcore business

    Strong partnerships

    Gazprom Monsanto Petronas Shell Sinopec Statoil Total Yara

    Selected transactions 2010 until today

    Acquisitions

    ~ 4.5 billion salesin emerging and innovation-driven

    businesses

    Divestitures

    Styrenics Fertilizers Construction equipment,

    flooring and wall systems Decorative paints in Europe Selected assets in Oil &

    Gas Natural gas trading and

    storage Custom synthesis business

    ~ 20 billion sales*in businesses with

    limited fit and differentiation

    potential

    Portfolio development towards more market-driven and innovative businesses

    * Includes sales of non-consolidated businesses (Styrenics, VNG participation)

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 19

    150 years

    1.95 billion R&D expenditurein 2015; to be maintained in 2016

    ~10,000 employees in R&D

    ~3,000 projects

    Ranked No.1 in thePatent Asset Index

    ~1,000 new patents in 2015

    Research Verbund: Cooperations with more than 600 excellent partners from universities, start-upsand industry

    InnovationInnovations for a sustainable future

    1.61.7

    1.8 1.9 1.95

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    R&D expenditures (in billion )

    Chemicals11%

    Performance Products20%

    Functional Mat. & Sol.20%

    Agricultural Solutions26%

    Oil & Gas2%

    Corporate Research21%

    2.0

    1.5

    1.0

    0.5

    0

    Key facts

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 20

    150 years

    Lower production cost than industry average

    Efficiency gains:

    run-time extension higher throughput lower energy consumption

    Proprietary technology,new process protected by280 active patent families

    4 out of 6 production sites already equipped: Ludwigs-hafen, Antwerp, Nanjing, Camaari

    Innovation BASF with best-in-class acrylic acid process

    80

    85

    90

    95

    100

    BASFnew process

    BASFclassic process

    Industry average

    Acrylic acid production technology benchmark(Industry average costs = 100; normalized)

    Key facts

    Source: BASF estimate

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 21

    150 years

    Innovation: SAVIVA Highly efficient Superabsorbent Polymers (SAP)

    SAVIVA Based on a pioneering SAP technology platform SAVIVA the next generation of SAP Round-shaped particles with micro-pores initiates

    innovative liquid distribution mechanism

    Compared to other SAPs SAVIVA leads to: Efficiency gains:

    SAP reduction Fluff reduction Reduction of storage, packaging and transportation

    costs

    Improved sustainability: Better carbon footprint due to SAP and weight

    reduction Enabler for future diaper designs offering a new

    level of comfort and dryness

    SAVIVA round shaped particle

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 22

    150 years

    Profitability of BASF will grow faster than global chemical production

    Sales growth*Slightly faster than the global chemical production

    EBITDA growthWell above global chemical production

    Remain a strong cash providerContinuously generate high levels of free cash flow

    Financial targets for next years

    Deliver attractive returnsEarn a significant premium on cost of capital

    * Without considering Natural Gas Trading and Storage business

    Progressive dividend policy We want to grow or at least maintain our dividend

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 23

    Appendix: 4Q & FY 2015 Reporting

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 24

    150 years

    Sales developmentPeriod Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q415 vs. Q414 4% (11%) (19%) 3%

    FY15 vs. FY14 3% (9%) (5%) 6%

    BASF with lower sales and earnings in difficult economic environment

    Business performance Q415 vs. Q414 FY15 vs. FY14

    Sales 13.9 billion (23%) 70.4 billion (5%) EBITDA 1.9 billion (34%) 10.6 billion (4%) EBIT before special items 1.0 billion (30%) 6.7 billion (8%) EBIT 0.3 billion (81%) 6.2 billion (18%) Net income 0.3 billion (76%) 4.0 billion (23%) Reported EPS 0.37 (76%) 4.34 (23%) Adjusted EPS 1.01 (3%) 5.00 (8%) Operating cash flow 1.0 billion (53%) 9.4 billion +36%

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 25

    150 years

    ChemicalsSignificant earnings decline due to lower cracker margins

    Intermediates671(2%)

    Monomers1,396(12%)

    Petrochemicals1,122(38%)

    3,189(22%)

    580

    249

    0

    200

    400

    600

    Q4'14 Q4'15

    Q415 segment sales (million ) vs. Q414 EBIT before special items (million )

    Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q415 vs. Q414 (5%) (19%) (2%) 4%

    FY15 vs. FY14 (2%) (17%) (2%) 7%

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    FY'14 FY'15

    (57%) (9%)

    2,3672,156

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 26

    150 years

    Performance ProductsSlightly higher earnings on improved margins

    Performance Chemicals987(4%)

    CareChemicals

    1,1680%

    3,627(2%)

    Q415 segment sales (million ) vs. Q414

    Nutrition & Health429(13%)

    Dispersions& Pigments

    1,043+1%

    217 228

    0

    100

    200

    300

    Q4'14 Q4'15

    Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q415 vs. Q414 0% (4%) (2%) 4%

    FY15 vs. FY14 (1%) (4%) (1%) 7%

    EBIT before special items (million )

    1,3661,455

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    FY'14 FY'15

    +5% (6%)

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 27

    150 years

    Functional Materials & SolutionsStrong operating performance drives earnings up

    Catalysts1,545(2%)

    ConstructionChemicals

    562+10%

    Coatings809+5%

    4,506+1%

    Q415 segment sales (million ) vs. Q414

    220

    389

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    Q4'14 Q4'15

    1,197

    1,649

    0

    400

    800

    1,200

    1,600

    FY'14 FY'15

    Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q415 vs. Q414 3% (7%) 0% 5%

    FY15 vs. FY14 0% (4%) 0% 9%

    EBIT before special items (million )

    Performance Materials1,5900%

    +77% +38%

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 28

    150 years

    1,1671,109

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    Q4 Q4

    Agricultural SolutionsStrong finish despite tough market environment

    Q415 segment sales (million ) vs. Q414

    20152014

    123

    144

    0

    40

    80

    120

    160

    Q4'14 Q4'15

    Sales development Period Volumes Prices Portfolio Currencies

    Q415 vs. Q414 3% 6% 0% (4%)

    FY15 vs. FY14 1% 5% 0% 1%

    EBIT before special items (million )

    1,0901,109

    0

    400

    800

    1,200

    FY'14 FY'15

    +17% (2%)

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 29

    150 years

    59

    288

    446

    -184*-200

    0

    200

    400

    600

    383 426

    940

    1,464

    1,050

    Oil & GasEarnings drop due to significantly lower oil and gas prices

    Q415 segment sales (million ) vs. Q414 EBIT before special items / Net income (million )

    FY '14 FY '15

    Sales development Period Volumes Price/Currencies Portfolio

    Q415 vs. Q414 3% (4%) (81%)

    FY15 vs. FY14 15% (9%) (20%)

    Natural Gas TradingExploration & Production Net income

    0

    1,000

    2,000 1,795

    1,366

    Q4 '14 Q4 '15

    1,412

    3,277

    728

    0

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    Q4 Q420152014

    347

    127*

    4,005

    731*

    * Including transportation business

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 30

    150 years

    Review of Other

    Million Q4 2015 Q4 2014 2015 2014

    Sales 660 700 2,790 3,609EBIT before special items (114) (28) (888) (566)Thereof corporate research costs

    group corporate costs currency results, hedges and other valuation effectsother businesses

    (95)(61)(11)

    75

    (98)(59)110

    23

    (402)(233)(220)

    170

    (389)(218)

    (2)

    133

    Special items (21) 473 (97) 433

    EBIT (135) 445 (985) (133)

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 31

    150 years

    Million 2015 2014Cash provided by operating activities 9,446 6,958Thereof changes in net working capital

    miscellaneous items 1,347(336)

    (623)(1,029)

    Cash provided by investing activities (5,235) (4,496)Thereof payments related to tangible / intangible assets (5,812) (5,296)

    acquisitions / divestitures 436 373Cash used in financing activities (3,673) (2,478)Thereof changes in financial liabilities

    dividends (933)

    (2,806)288

    (2,766)

    Record operating cash flow of 9.4 billion Free cash flow more than doubled to 3.6 billion High dividend payout in 2015 of 2.8 billion

    2015

    Cash flow development in 2015

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 32

    150 years

    Balance sheet remains strongBalance sheet 2015 vs. 2014 (billion )

    Liquid funds

    Accountsreceivable

    Long-termassets 31.5

    15.2

    24.1

    44.0

    10.4

    1.7

    Otherliabilities

    Financialdebt

    StockholdersEquity

    Dec. 31,2014

    Dec. 31,2014

    Dec. 31,2015

    Dec. 31,2015

    71.4

    28.2

    15.4

    27.8Inventories

    Other assets 4.0

    71.4

    Highlights 2015

    Total assets almost stable Long-term assets up by 2.3

    billion as a result of our investment projects

    Short-term assets down by 2.9 billion due to strict working capital management and the asset swap

    Equity grew by 3.4 billion Provisions for pensions down

    by 1.0 billion Net debt decreased to 13.0

    billion Net debt/EBITDA ratio: 1.2 Equity ratio: 45%

    46.3

    9.5

    2.2

    9.7

    3.1

    70.8 70.8

    11.3

  • BASF Capital Market Story March 2016 33

    150 years

    Slide Number 1Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements BASF Share informationWe create chemistry for a sustainable futureVerbund: Unique competitive advantageBASF today a well-balanced portfolioTotal sales 2015: 70.4 billionStrong free cash development 2015Attractive shareholder returnSlide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Outlook 2016BASF Group Slide Number 13Priorities 2016CapexInvestments for organic growthOperational excellenceDrivE with ~1 bn earnings contributionOperational excellence Strong track recordPortfolio development towards more market-driven and innovative businessesInnovationInnovations for a sustainable futureSlide Number 20Innovation: SAVIVA Highly efficient Superabsorbent Polymers (SAP) Profitability of BASF will grow faster than global chemical productionSlide Number 23BASF with lower sales and earnings in difficult economic environmentChemicalsSignificant earnings decline due to lower cracker margins Performance ProductsSlightly higher earnings on improved marginsFunctional Materials & SolutionsStrong operating performance drives earnings upAgricultural SolutionsStrong finish despite tough market environmentSlide Number 29Review of Other Cash flow development in 2015Balance sheet remains strongSlide Number 33