WaterNSW Operations update - WaterNSW - WaterNSW · Regulated river (high security) [Town Water...
Transcript of WaterNSW Operations update - WaterNSW - WaterNSW · Regulated river (high security) [Town Water...
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WaterNSW
Operations update
NSW Murray Valley
July 2019
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WaterNSW
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3
Drought Situation
Update
WaterNSW
Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW
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Dam Storages
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Dartmouth Dam storage
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
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Dam Storages
5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hume Dam storage
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
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Dam Storages
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Lake Victoria Storage
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
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Dam Storages
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Menindee Lakes Storage
2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
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WaterNSW
Current Resource Breakdown 15 July 2019
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9
NSW rainfall
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10
NSW rainfall
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NSW rainfall
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12
Maximum temperature
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Maximum temperature
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Inflows are consistent with rainfall trends over the past 6-month period, with Dartmouth catchment being one of the few places to receive near average rainfall totals. Actual inflow for the 6 months was driven by May and June inflows (101 GL) with the 6-month total of 146 GL which is consistent with 50th percentile inflows (147 GL); the minimum inflow is 43 GL.
Inflows are consistent with rainfall trends over the past 12-month period. Actual inflow for the 12 months is 489 GL which is slightly better than 90th percentile inflows (450 GL); the minimum inflow is 166 GL.
Dartmouth Dam Inflows
14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Inflo
w V
olu
me
(G
L)
Dartmouth Dam - 6 month inflows/statistical
inflows
99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile
25 percentile Actual Inflow
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19
Inflo
w V
olu
me
(G
L)
Dartmouth Dam - 12 month inflows/statistical
inflows
99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile
25 percentile Actual Inflow
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Inflows are less than the rainfall trends over the past 6 months period, likely due very dry catchment conditions experienced over the previous 12 to 18 months. Actual inflow for the 6 months is 225 GL (160 GL May & June) –consistent with 90th percentile inflows (221 GL); the minimum inflow is 69 GL.
Inflows are consistent with rainfall trends over the past 12 months. Actual inflow for the 12 months is 774 GL which is slightly better than 95th percentile inflows (602 GL); the minimum inflow is 124 GL .
Hume Dam Inflows
15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Inflo
w V
olu
me
(G
L)
Hume Dam - 6 month inflows/statistical inflows
99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile
25 percentile Actual Inflow
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19
Inflo
w V
olu
me
(G
L)
Hume Dam - 12 month inflows/statistical inflows
99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile
25 percentile Actual Inflow
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Inflows significantly exceed rainfall trends over the past 6 months period. Actual inflow for the 6 months is 772 GL which is slightly better than 50th percentile inflows (678 GL); the minimum inflow is 190 GL.
Inflows are consistent with rainfall trends over the past 12-month period. Actual inflow for the 12 months is 2327 GL which is slightly greater than 75th percentile inflows (2266 GL); the minimum inflow is 575 GL.
Tributary Inflows
16
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Inflo
w V
olu
me
(G
L)
Total Tribs - 6 month inflows/statistical inflows
99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile
25 percentile Actual Inflow
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19
Inflo
w V
olu
me
(G
L)
Total Tribs - 12 month inflows/statistical inflows
99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile
25 percentile Actual Inflow
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Inflows over the past 6-month period were 3.3 GL; the minimum is 0 GL.
Inflows over the past 12 months have totalled 6.3 GL as compared to the minimum of 4 GL.
Menindee Lakes Inflows
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19
Inflo
w V
olu
me
(G
L)
Menindee Lakes - 6 month inflows/statistical
inflows
99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile
25 percentile Actual Inflow
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19
Inflo
w V
olu
me
(G
L)
Menindee Lakes - 12 month inflows/statistical
inflows
99 percentile 75 percentile 50 percentile25 percentile Actual Inflow
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Menindee Lakes Inflows
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19
Drought Outlook
WaterNSWWater NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW
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20
Climate Outlook
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ENSO Outlook
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22
What are we doing
Now?
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2019/20
Water Availability for NSW Murray
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Licence category Share
component
Carryover
in
AWD
volume
Allocation
assignments in
Allocation
assignments out
Usage Balance
Domestic and stock 13,732 -2 13,732 0 0 27 13,703
Domestic and stock (domestic) 1,250 -1 1,250 0 0 9 1,240
Domestic and stock (stock) 2,063 0 2,063 0 0 3 2,060
Local water utility 33,497 -2 33,497 0 0 226 33,269
Local water utility (domestic and commercial) 4,720 0 4,720 0 0 102 4,618
Regulated river (Conveyance) 330,000 0 19,998 11,948 0 110 31,836
Regulated river (general security) 1,674,096 312,108 0 16,203 12,391 12 315,909
Regulated river (high security) 189,705 -1,032 184,017 1,481 17,195 212 169,387
Regulated river (high security) [Community and
Education]
47 0 47 0 0 0 47
Regulated river (high security) [Research] 1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Regulated river (high security) [Town Water
Supply]
3,195 0 3,195 0 0 0 3,195
Supplementary water 252,468 0 252,468 0 0 0 252,468
Grand total 2,504,773 351,072 514,987 29,632 29,586 702 867,732
• All values are presented in Megalitres• The last general security allocation was made on 15 March 2018 (0.02ML/share)• General Security Carryover from 2018/19 is fully deliverable
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2019/20
Water Availability for NSW Murray
24
NSW Murray River Valley
Allocation (ML/Share, %) Licence Category Date of Allocation
0.0 / 0% General security 1 July 2019
0.97 / 97% High security 1 July 2019
1.00 / 100% Domestic and stock 1 July 2019
1.00 / 100% Local water utilities 1 July 2019
0.06 / 6% Conveyance 1 July 2019
0.18/ 18% Average general security
carryover
1 July 2019
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Storage Forecast
25
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20
Sto
rag
e C
ap
ac
ity (
%)
Dartmouth Dam - Forecast Storage Capacity
Actual Extreme dry scenario (99%) Dry scenario (90%) Near average scenario (50%) Wet scenario (25%)
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Storage Forecast
26
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20
Sto
rag
e C
ap
ac
ity (
%)
Hume Dam - Forecast Storage Capacity
Actual Extreme dry scenario (99%) Dry scenario (90%) Near average scenario (50%) Wet scenario (25%)
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Storage Forecast
27
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20
Sto
rag
e C
ap
acit
y (
%)
Lake Victoria - Forecast Storage Capacity
Actual Extreme dry scenario (99%) Dry scenario (90%) Near average scenario (50%) Wet scenario (25%)
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Storage Forecast
28
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Sto
rage
vo
lum
e (M
L)
Menindee Lakes volume (ML)
80th percentile inflow Minimum inflow Zero inflow Actual
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System committments1 August 2019
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Water Sharing Tiers1 August 2019
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State Entitlement Structure
32
NSW Entitlements Victorian Entitlements SA Entitlement
Stock and Domestic 17,045 High Reliability 1,244,789 Stock and Domestic 8,369 Local Water Utilities 38,217 Low Reliability 311,607 Town Water 50,000
High Security 192,948 High Reliability 607,898
Conveyance 330,000 Industry/Dairy 5,569
General Security 1,674,096 High Reliability Wetlands 39,954
TOTAL 2,252,306 TOTAL 1,556,396 TOTAL 711,790
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Policy Framework
Drought Management Plans
DoI Water development of the Temporary Water Restriction protocol
Valley Based Incident Response Guides
WaterNSW responsible for the preparation of drought management plans
for each valley
Including the development of management of criteria for assessing the
criticality of priority water use
Drought management plans are prepared in consultation with local
stakeholders
Drought Plans are approved by DoI Water with input from the CWAP
Temporary Water Restriction Process
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NSW Drought Operations
Plan▪ Current resource situation is being managed through restriction to
allocation – Conveyance; Wakool River Allowance
▪ Examples of actions undertaken at other locations, that could be
applied in the NSW Murray if circumstances require:▪ Implementation of temporary water order providing restrictions of use or access to
available water on accounts
▪ Cease delivery to sections of river systems
▪ Block release for stock and domestic supplies
34
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Critical Dates
35
SN Drought Impacts Probable Impact Timeframe
1 Nil access to HS that are not for human usage Jul-19
2 Nil access to GS and restricted to usages other than
critical human needs and essential supplies Jul-19
3 Limited water supply to Mungindi Jul-19
4 Limited replenishment flow to Boomi River Sept/Oct-19
5 Limited access to S&D usage Jul-19
6 Algal blooms and increased chance of fish kills due to low
storage levels Sept/Oct-19
7 Potential restricted delivery for some of the towns (e.g.
Goondiwindi, Mungindi) Jul-19
8 Water quality issues at low storage levels May/Jun-20
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Rainfall Event Forecasting and Monitoring
• WaterNSW monitors rainfall and inflows
• If current drought restriction are to be changed WaterNSW to
prepare change plan and justification for DoI Water approval
• DoI W and WaterNSW communicate changes
Temporary Water Restriction Process
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Drought Monthly Valley Assessment
• WaterNSW monitors and reports on the drought situation around the state
including the drought priority assessments
• WaterNSW recommends drought management strategy changes based
on reported conditions and reasons for changes (public interest test)
• DPIE Water assess drought conditions and actions and approves course
on action (regulatory alignment)
• DPIE and WaterNSW update drought situation and water restriction orders
• DPIE Water and WaterNSW communicate changes
Temporary Water Restriction Process
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Mapping of Critical
Water Supplies
Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW
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Criticality of Water Supply Assessment
• WaterNSW plan to run through with local stakeholder the process to managing flow event and justifying the need for Temporary Water Restrictions
• Develop criteria for the assessment of critical water supply status
• Produce a map of the State to show what areas of have been identified as critical which will be undated as situation changes
• Examples shown in follow slides
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Criticality of Water Supply Criteria - Border
Goondiwindi Water
Supply
Xx Volume in storage
Ashford Water Supply
Xx Volume in storage
Boomi S&D Supply
150 Days of cease to Flow
Macintyre S&D Supply
120 Days of cease to Flow
Mungindi Water Supply
Xx Volume in storage
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Walgett Water SupplyXx Volume in storage
Pian Creek S&D Supply120 Days of cease to Flow
Namoi River D/s Wee WeaS&D Supply
120 Days of cease to Flow
Namoi River U/S Wee WeaS&D/HS Supply
90 Days of cease to Flow
Criticality of Water Supply Criteria - Namoi
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Lower Bogan
365 Days cease
to Flow
Duck/Crooked
90 Days cease
to Flow
Marra
120 Days
cease to Flow
Criticality of Water Supply Criteria - Gwydir
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Bourke to Wilcannia
150 Days of cease to Flow
Brewarrina to Bourke
100 Days of cease to
Flow
Collarenebri to Brewarrina100 Days of cease to Flow
Bourke
Weir Pool 3.6 m
Brewarrina Weir
Pool 3.6 m
Walgett Weir
Pool 1.9 m
Menindee
Lakes 60 GL
Criticality of Water Supply Criteria Barwon Darling
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1. Identification of critical Environmental Sites - prepared for the Macquarie
2. Development of Monitoring Program – under development
3. Development of Response Strategy – to be developed
Critical Environmental Sites
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Keep Informed
WaterNSW
Water NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW
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Visit the website at:
waternsw.com.au/drought
For information on the Macquarie Valley including water availability reports and drought reports go to:
waternsw.com.au/supply/drought-information/regional-nsw/
Call us on: 1300 662 077
Subscribe at: waternsw.com.au/subscribe
For weekly customer drought updates and more information
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To keep updated
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Thank you for joining us today
WaterNSWWater NSW © 2019 – Do not copy, cite or distribute without permission of Water NSW