Water Security, Risk and Society - Smal... · Hydrological uncertainty rbhrghrbgrfrrfrr Região...
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Water Security, Risk and Society Oxford, April 2012 Small probability events that could cause water supply collapse Jerson Kelman CEO of Light Group
Transcript of Water Security, Risk and Society - Smal... · Hydrological uncertainty rbhrghrbgrfrrfrr Região...
Water Security, Risk and Society Oxford, April 2012
Small probability events
that could cause water supply collapse
Jerson Kelman
CEO of Light Group
Hydrological uncertainty rbhrghrbgrfrrfrr
Região Sudeste / Centro-Oeste
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nov/99 Dez/99 Jan/00 Fev/00 Mar/00 Abr/00 Mai/00 Jun/00 Jul/00 Ago/00 Set/00 Out/00 Nov/00 Dez/00
% EAR MÁX
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
jan
/97
jul/9
7
jan
/98
jul/9
8
jan
/99
jul/9
9
jan
/00
jul/0
0
jan
/01
jul/0
1
jan
/02
Storage in the equivalent reservoir
Beginning
2000 Beginning
2001
Water Storage in the Sobradinho Reservoir
Simulação do comportamento do reservatório de FURNAS
(Vazão firme = 670 m³/s)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jan-
31
Jan-
34
Jan-
37
Jan-
40
Jan-
43
Jan-
46
Jan-
49
Jan-
52
Jan-
55
Jan-
58
Jan-
61
Jan-
64
Jan-
67
Jan-
70
Jan-
73
Jan-
76
Jan-
79
Jan-
82
Jan-
85
Jan-
88
Jan-
91
Jan-
94
Jan-
97
Jan-
00
Mês/ano
Vo
lum
e (
hm
³)
Armazenamento final (hm3) Volume Morto (hm3)
Nov/56 = 5733 hm³
Volume morto = 5733 hm³
Fonte dos Dados: ONS
Fourth worst
drought in record
Lessons from case 1
• Decisions under uncertainty are politically evaluated by
their consequences, not by their wisdom
• The layman expects that the water (or electric energy)
supply system is able to endure the worst drought in
record
• It is sometimes preferable to make easy to understand
but less than optimal decisions
Sobradinho
Reservoir
Sao Francisco
River Basin
Brazil
Drought prone
area
During the 1887-89
drought, about one
million people
emigrated from the
drought prone area
Countless died
HYDROLOGICAL VICIOUS
CYCLE
No firm water supply
Little investment
in high-value crops or industry
People are
Poor
It is necessary an initial
stock of investments on
water infrastructure
before reaching the
“inflexion point… and
then real progress
starts
(David Grey and Claudia Sadoff,
“Sink or Swim? Water security
for growth and development”)
INTERBASIN
WATER TRANSFER
Qmean São Francisco River = 2600 m3 /s
26 m3 /s ≤ Qdiversion ≤ 127 m3 /s
1% of Qmean ≤ Qdiversion ≤ 5% of Qmean
600 Km of channels
Water Storage in the Sobradinho Reservoir Simulação do comportamento do reservatório de FURNAS
(Vazão firme = 670 m³/s)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jan-
31
Jan-
34
Jan-
37
Jan-
40
Jan-
43
Jan-
46
Jan-
49
Jan-
52
Jan-
55
Jan-
58
Jan-
61
Jan-
64
Jan-
67
Jan-
70
Jan-
73
Jan-
76
Jan-
79
Jan-
82
Jan-
85
Jan-
88
Jan-
91
Jan-
94
Jan-
97
Jan-
00
Mês/ano
Vo
lum
e (
hm
³)
Armazenamento final (hm3) Volume Morto (hm3)
Nov/56 = 5733 hm³
Volume morto = 5733 hm³
Fonte dos Dados: ONS
Opportunity cost of water in the
Sobradinho Reservoir
90% of capacity
Sobradinho
Reservoir
Continuous fl
ow river
Small reservoir in
the recipient region
PipelineWater flow
from the
São Francisco
River Basin
Inte
rmitte
nt ri
ver
Continuous fl
ow river
Small reservoir in
the recipient region
PipelineWater flow
from the
São Francisco
River Basin
Inte
rmitte
nt ri
ver
95% 95%
Water reliability in different site of the
recipient region w
without diversion with diversion
Continuous fl
ow river
Small reservoir in
the recipient region
PipelineWater flow
from the
São Francisco
River Basin
Inte
rmitte
nt ri
ver
Continuous fl
ow river
Small reservoir in
the recipient region
PipelineWater flow
from the
São Francisco
River Basin
Inte
rmitte
nt ri
ver
• No Interbasin Diversion Project
• Build individual water tanks
• Store rain falling on the roofs
Water for survival
• Interbasin Diversion Project
• Build local reservoirs
• Build pipes and channels
Water for production
X
“I will sustain a hunger
strike until Government
cancels the Project”
(Bishop Dom Cappio)
Lessons from case 2
• When the probability P of a catastrophic drought
tends to zero and the corresponding cost C tends
to infinity…
Expected Cost … 0 × ∞ …undefined
Mathematical lack of definition…
… political lack of resolution
• When ideology opposes hydrology, it is very
difficult to discuss water security challenges using
risk as a unifying framework
