Water Scenario and Modelling Narratives: moving towards quality narratives in water policy

A workshop co-organised by the H2020 MAGIC and WEFE Flagship Projects

Guimarães Pereira, Ângela

Völker, Thomas

2020

This publication is a Conference and Workshop report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication. For information on the methodology and quality underlying the data used in this publication for which the source is neither Eurostat nor other Commission services, users should contact the referenced source. The designations employed and the presentation of material on the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Contact information Name: Ângela Guimarães Pereira Email: angela.pereira@ec.europa.eu EU Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc JRC115609

Ispra: European Commission, 2020 © European Union, 2020 The reuse policy of the European Commission is implemented by the Commission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12 December 2011 on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39). Except otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the EU, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. All content © European Union, 2020 How to cite this report: Guimarães Pereira, Â., Völker, T., Water scenario and modelling narratives. Moving towards quality narratives in water policy, Ispra: European Commission, 2020. JRC115609.

Table of Content

SUMMARY......................................................................................................................................2

1. CONTEXTOFTHEWORKSHOP..................................................................................................31.1 INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................................31.2TWOPROJECTS:WEFEFLAGSHIPANDTHEH2020MAGIC......................................................................31.2.1WEFEFlagshipProject.............................................................................................................31.2.2H2020MAGICProject..............................................................................................................41.2.3Organisationofthisreport......................................................................................................4

2. NEXUSNARRATIVES.................................................................................................................52.1WHATISANARRATIVEANDWHYARENARRATIVESIMPORTANT?................................................................52.2THEMAGICNEXUS-NARRATIVES.........................................................................................................7

3.DISCUSSIONSAROUNDWEFENARRATIVES..................................................................................9

4. ELEMENTSFORNEXUSMODELLING.......................................................................................16

5.REFERENCES..............................................................................................................................18

ANNEX..........................................................................................................................................19

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Summary Theworkshoporganisedon26-27February2018bytheJRCandtheH2020MAGICconsortium.Ithighlightedmanyareasinwhichnexusmodellingcouldassesspolicymakingnarratives.Itidentifiedproblematicconceptsand narratives in need of thorough examination as their usage could undermine the overall objectives ofexistingpolicymaking.Thenarrativespresentedfordiscussiontriggeredagreatdealofcritique;long-standingand taken for granted narratives such as, ‘maximisation of profit’ as the goal (in food production and ingeneral),agricultureasbeingonlyaboutfoodproduction,techno-fixessuchas‘irrigation’or‘biofuels’ascureandadaptationtoclimatechange,waterpricingasakeypolicymechanismoreconomicmodelsandmarketstocurate environmental issues were deemed in need of urgent review. Modelling can explore alternativenarrativesandgoals,perhapsinvolvingupfrontactorswhoseinterestsgobeyondpureeconomicones.

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1. Context of the Workshop

1.1 Introduction ThisworkshopwasorganisedattheJRC incollaborationoftwounitsandoneH2020consortiumonthe

26-27 February 2018. This workshop aimed at looking critically at existing policy - and to a limited extentmodelling - narratives focusing on both thewater dimension and broader implications for theWEFE nexus.Building on that, a further objectivewas to enable and initiate discussions that explore how current policynarrativescorrespondtosocietalneedsandhowtheyrespondtocomplexitiesanduncertaintiesposedbytheWEFEnexus. In a policy context,we can argue that policies,models and scenarios are responsive toor ‘co-produce’eachother.Hence,theexpectedoutcomesofthisworkshopconsistedofelementsthatwouldguidemodellingdevelopmentbyaddressingthedrawbacksofcurrentnexusrelatedpolicynarratives.Theambitionwas therefore that modelling and scenario work carried out by the WEFE flagship project could explorealternativenarrativesemergingfromthediscussionsintheworkshop.

The participants of the workshop included scientists and policy officers. Among the invited scientists, theworkshop invitedmembers of the consortium of the H2020 projectMAGIC (Moving towards Adaptation ofGovernance In Complexity– http://magic-nexus.eu), as this project is currently developingmethodologies totackle challenges related to the water-energy-food nexus through an approach called ‘QuantitativeStorytelling’.

TheworkshopincludedanumberofintroductorypresentationsthatspannedmodelsdevelopedattheJRCandused in the context of the WEFE flagship project, as well as MAGIC work around narratives and othermethodologicalpresentationstosupporttheworktobecarriedoutattheworkshop.Subsequently,anumberofparallelandplenarydiscussionswereorganisedaroundthefollowingtopics:

• Thenarrativesembeddedwithincertainmodels,i.e.thestoriesthatcanbetoldthroughthesemodels;thesestorieswereputindialoguewiththepolicynarrativestheytrytoaddress.

• Therangeofnexus-narrativesthatfocusoninteractionortrade-offsbetweendifferentsectorialproblems.

• Thechallengesofcurrentnarrativesparticipantsencounteredintheirdiscussions,inordertoeventuallyelaborateasetofquestions,narrativesandrelatedpolicyissuesthatshouldbetackledintheWEFEflagshipproject.

The workshop’s ultimate aim was thus, to identify and reflect on assumptions embedded in both policynarratives andmodels applied and developed in theWEFE flagship project, so that the space of alternativenarrativescanbeexploredfurtherbyJRCmodellers.

1.2Twoprojects:WEFEFlagshipandtheH2020MAGIC

1.2.1WEFEFlagshipProject

In a nutshell, theoverall objective of theWater-Energy-Food-EcosystemsNexus flagship project (WEFE-Nexus)istohelpinasystemicwaythedesignandimplementationofEuropeanpoliciesthataredependentonwater.Bycombiningexpertiseanddata fromacross the JRC, itwillprovide support tomultiplepartnerDGsinformingcross-sectorialpolicymakingonhowtoimprovetheresilienceofwater-usingsectorssuchasenergy,agricultureandecosystems.Theproject involvestenUnitsacrossfiveDirectoratesoftheJRC:B03,C02,C05,C07, D02, D04, D05, D06, E01 and I02. This spans very different disciplinary competences, traditionallyexploitedinsupporttospecificDGs(e.g.improvedenergy,agriculture,hydrologyorwaterqualitymodels)withtheir integrated, value-addedapplication. For example, an integratedassessmentofwater-agriculture issuesmayalsorequireanimproveddescriptionofirrigationefficiencyinagriculturalandagro-economicmodels;anassessment of hydropower as a factor of flexibility in power generation calls for an improvement of bothhydrological and power system models; and addressing territorial issues beyond the EU28 requires theextensionoftheLUISA1landuseprojectionstotheMiddleEastandAfrica.

1TheLUISATerritorialModellingPlatformisprimarilyusedfortheex-anteevaluationofECpoliciesthathaveadirectorindirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for therepresentationofcomplexsystemdynamics…Seemoreathttps://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/luisa

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Byfocusingoncross-sectorial issues,theWEFE-NexusprojectwillenabletheJRCtoput intovalue itsuniquecapability of integratingdifferent angles (agriculture, energy andenvironmental policies) and address at thesametimethespecificinterestsofsectorialpolicyDGs.Theprojectwillmakeavailablecapacitytoquantifytheinvestment needs and the size of themarket forwater treatment, irrigation efficiency, urban greening etc.,mainlybasedonbiophysicalandsocio-economicassessments.

1.2.2H2020MAGICProject

TheMAGICprojectisa4-yearH2020fundedprojectledbytheInstituteofEnvironmentalScienceandTechnology (ICTA) of the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB). Itsmain objectives are to develop anapproachforanalysingnexusrelations;i.e.implicationsandtrade-offsbetweenfood,energyandwaterpoliciesand to do so in a collaborativewaywith policymakers, stakeholders and citizens. Thismeans assessing the‘quality’ofnexuspolicy-making,i.e.reflectonthefeasibility,viabilityanddesirabilityofexistingandpotentialoptionsformanagingthenexus.

Themethodologicalapproachfordoingthisiscalled‘QuantitativeStory-Telling’(QST)2.QSTfocusesonpolicynarratives and is especially interested in exploring the quantitative basis for these narratives. MAGIC isinterested in the wider cycle of discussion around these narratives, meaning political processes of issueselectionand interpretationofhowcertainquantitativeoutcomesfeed intopoliticalchoices.Tothisendtheproject also uses quantification to show alternative narratives and point to potential problems with thequantitativebasisforcurrentones.

Central to QST is an accounting framework called MuSIASEM, which stands for ‘Multi-scale IntegratedAssessment of Societal and EcosystemMetabolism’.MuSIASEM quantifies the stocks and flows of physicalmaterials (water, energy, etc.) andmoneyavailable tohumanpopulations, in relation to the specificmixofhuman activities and allocation of time use. The quantification assesses how resources are deployed tomaintainthesystemofinterest(asector,region,nationetc.)andthedegreetowhichthesystemdependsondrawingonresourcesfromelsewhereand/orgeneratingexternalities(suchaspollution).

In this senseMuSIASEMplayswith the ideaofmetabolicpatternsof societies, so it’sabout thebiophysicalmaterialflows,butalsoabouthowweorganiseourselvesasasociety.Thistoolitisquiteflexibleandthusagoodsupporttodeliberationaroundwhatishappeninginspecificpolicyareas.Importantlythisflexibilityalsoallowsforexploringquestionsofsocial,environmentalandgeographicjustice.

1.2.3Organisationofthisreport

The discussions at theworkshopwere organised around a set ofWEFE narratives developed for theH2020MAGICproject. In section2we layout theconceptualbackgroundofourworkwithnarrativesanddescribehowweusethemmethodologically.Insection3wereportonthediscussionstriggeredbythenexusnarrativesthatwereoffered to theparticipantsasprompts toaddress theobjectivesof theworkshop. Insection4wesummarise actionable points which may lead to a roadmap for modelling development around the WEFEnexus.

2Seee.g.https://magic-nexus.eu/documents/d41-report-nexus-security-using-quantitative-story-telling

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2. Nexus narratives

2.1Whatisanarrativeandwhyarenarrativesimportant?Narratives are everywhere. They are a fundamental part of howwe as both individuals and organized

social collectives engagewith theworld.Whenwewalk throughawoodwemight see ahabitat for certainspecies,the‘lungs’ofourworld,arecreationalspaceinaworldcharacterisedbyincreasingurbanisation,or–more recently–anareaof land threatenedbyclimatechangeandwildfires.What this list shows is that it’spractically impossible to cognitively and interactionally make sense of ‘the wood’ without embedding it incertainstories.ItisinthatsensethatBrunertalksabouthumanbeingsas“storiedanimals”(1991).

Butwhatthenqualifiesasa‘narrative’?Surely,noteveryutterancecancountasanarrative.FelicityMellor,inherworkontheformationofastrologyasafield,statesthat

“narrativeentailsnot a randomunfoldingofeventsbut a sequencedordering involvinga transitionfromonestatetoanotherbroughtaboutorexperiencedbyactors”(Mellor,2007:501).

Initsbasicunderstanding,narrativesareunderstoodasa(mostlyretrospective)sequentialorderingofeventsfromanarrator’sperspective,thusconstitutingparticulartemporalandspatial structures and establishing a set of actors/subject positions with particularrationales, often together with a causal relationship between two distinct states (aproblemanda solution), i.e. some influencesand consequences in theworld.Particularevents are related causally to each other through the actions of particular actors. Theytakeplaceincertainlocationsandarecharacterisedbytemporaldynamics.

This simple description of narratives already opens up a range of questions: how exactly are problems andsolutionsframedinagivennarrative?Whataretheassumptionsthattheseframingsarebasedonandwhatarepotentialconsequencesoftheseassumptions?Whoisdoingtheframingandtowhatend?

Itisimportanttonotethatwhenwetalkaboutnarrativeswedonotjustmeansimple‘stories’.Narrativesaremore substantial and consequential for the ongoing ordering of society. They express broader imaginationsabouttheworld,whoandwhathasagency in itandwhat isvalued.Theyarecloselyrelatedto institutional,cultural,moralandmaterialformationsofsociety.

Thus,theyarenotonlyimportantforunderstanding‘private’livesofindividualsandcollectives.Theyalsoplaykeyrolesinthepolicy-realm.Here,narrativestacitlydefinepossiblehorizonsforactionanddistinguishactorsfromnon-actorsand issues fromnon-issues (e.g. throughnarrowtechnicalandexpertdrivenriskdiscourse).They naturalise the ‘normal’, the ‘taken for granted’.Once ‘naturalised’, such stories are treated as a givenreality, materialised in institutional formations and as a consequence become very hard to challenge.ChallengingnarrativesisoneimportantactivitythattheMAGICprojecttriestoachievewiththeapplicationofQuantitativeStoryTelling.

Furthermore, narratives operate on different levels.Master narratives, which are broad narrations aboutsocietyandhowitshouldfunctionandwhereitoughttogo.Examplesforthiskindofnarrativewouldbee.g.the master narrative about ‘progress’ which closely ties together ideas about ‘technological advance’ and‘economic prosperity’ and tends to side-line negative aspects and responsibility for them as ‘unintendedconsequences’.Anothermasternarrative is theso-called ‘linearmodelof innovation’, i.e. the ideathatbasicsciencewill leadtoinnovationsthatwillthenbetakenupbysocietyandthenleadtogrowthandprosperity.Although decades of social science research have shown that actual innovation trajectories are way morecomplexandmessy,thisnarrativestillguidesmostresearchpoliciesandthusdirectlyinfluenceshowresearch(actually R&D) resources are distributed. Finally, we can alsomention the ‘public understanding of science’narrative: this narrative frames ‘the public’ as a coherent entity with a cognitive deficit leading to growingmistrust in science.One consequenceof this narrative is a verynarrow imaginationof how to interactwithheterogeneousactors:sciencecommunication,informationandawareness-raisingcampaigns,andeducation.

More concrete policy narratives usually build on such unquestionedmaster narratives and articulate ideasaboutparticularcauses,effectsanddesiredendsonamorelocallevel:changesinwaterpricingwillinfluence

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thebehaviourofwaterusers;limitations:climatemodelsverybadtogetdailyrainfallright,whichisimportantforpredictingfloodrisk.

However,narrativesarenotonlyimportantindailylifeandtheconstantlyongoingprocessofsocietalorderingor in negotiating policy objectives. They also play a fundamental part in scientific practices of knowledgeproductionandcirculation:

“Thecriticalpoint is that scientistsalwaysusenarrative, and thusbenefit frombeing self-consciousnarrators.Sciencecannotmakeaninfinitenumberofobservations,andsoselects,justlikeanarrator.(…) The full chronicle helps not a bit, because not only is a full accounting of everything animpossibility,itisnotanarrative,becausenonarratorhasdecidedwhatmattered.(…)Anarrativeisnot a chronicleof everything thathappened, so there is no such thing as theultimately true story.Therefore,innarrative,ultimateverityisbesidethepoint.”(Allenetal.,2001:479)

In that sense also models can be understood as a ‘narrative’ in that they represent acertain view of the world. It is about making choices of what to include and what toexclude,aboutwhattheproblemsareandsoon.Thisalsomeansthatmodelsarealwayssituatedandpartial.

AsAllenandcolleaguesputitinthequoteabove,thereis‘nosuchthingastheultimatetruestory’.Thinkingaboutmodels in this sense is a hermeneutic approach andmeans focusing on implicit assumptions and thetaken for granted stories that areembedded in them. In this sense they canbe framedas tools andas TimIngoldpointsout,toolsaretheirstories:

"Noobjectconsideredpurelyinandforitself,intermsofitsintrinsicattributesalone,canbeatool.Todescribeathingasatoolistoplaceitinrelationtootherthingswithinafieldofactivityinwhichitcanexert a certain effect. Indeed we tend to name our tools by the activities in which they arecharacteristicallyornormativelyengaged,orbytheeffectstheyhaveinthem.ThustocallanobjectasawistopositionitwithinthecontextofastorysuchastheoneIhavejusttold,ofcuttingaplank.Tonamethetoolistoinvokethestory.Itfollowsthatforanobjecttocountasatoolitmustbeendowedwithastory,whichthepractitionershouldknowandunderstandinordertorecogniseitassuchanduseitappropriately.Consideredastools,thingsaretheirstories.Weareofcoursemoreaccustomedtothinkoftoolsashavingcertainfunctions.Mypoint,however,isthatthefunctionsofthingsarenotattributesbutnarratives.Theyarethestorieswetellaboutthem."(Ingold,2011:56)

Fromwhathasbeensaidsofar,someimportanttake-away-messagescanbearticulated:narrativesandstoriesare ubiquitous andplay a fundamental role in societal orderings (this is equally true for society, policy, andsociety); in thatsensethey ‘matter’,meaningthatnarrativesareperformativeandconsequential inhowweperceiveandthusactintheworld:tellingstoriesentailsontologicalpolitics,i.e.‘world-making’.

Tomakeitclearandunderstandablyhowweusethetermnarrativeitmakessensetoalsobrieflyconsiderwhat it isnot: it isnotan intentionallyproducedsloganforpromotingaparticularpoliticalagenda,nor is itasortof ‘motto’foraparticulargroupofactorswhowanttoachieveagoal.Itisnotsomethingtobeactivelyproducedtopushanagendainacertain direction. In contrast, narrative is a conceptual tool to direct attention to thetaken-for-granted assumptions and ‘naturalized’ stories about the world (that includeshuman and more-than-human actors in it) that guide the actions of individuals orcollectives(e.g.informationcampaignsinfluencepeople’sbehaviour).

Thisleadsusdirectlytotwofurtherquestions:

• Whythenisitusefultoworkwithnarratives?• Howexactlydoesworkingwith(andthrough)narrativeslooklike?

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Broadlyspeaking,workingwithnarrativeshastwomainobjectives:

First, it isawaytocollaboratemorecloselywithdifferentactors.FortheworkinMAGICthismostlymeanspolicyofficers fromdifferentDGs.At theWEFEworkshop,weadaptedthemethodtoenablediscussionanddebatebetweenJRCcolleagues,policy-officersandpartnersfromtheMAGICproject.Themainaimofthiswasto ‘check’howparticularpolicynarratives relate toscientific representations. Onecouldcall thema ‘siteofcollective experimentation’ where different stories about what to do and why can be discussed and thustested.Inthatsensethenarrativesthatwerediscussedarenot‘official’statementsakintopolicyproposalsorobjectives,butratheroutcomesoftheanalysisdone intheMAGICprojectwhichwasadaptedfortheuse ingroupdiscussions.

Second,analysingnarrativesasawayofcritiqueinthesenseofMichelFoucault,whichisnotaboutcriticizingsomething as wrong or meaningless, but rather about challenging the underlying premises of certainstatementsandcoursesofaction.AsKeithMatthewsstressedinhispresentationattheworkshop,thismeansalsoto“challengeunthinkingconsensus”.

Talkingandreflectingaboutpolicynarratives in this sense isaway to learnabout themore informalsideofinstitutions and practices of governance. There are several concepts to look into narratives. We use adistinction between scripts, parables and story lines. A script is “a culturally shared expression, story orcommon line of argument, or an expected unfolding of events, that is deemed to be appropriate or to beexpected in a particular socially defined context and that provide a rationale or justification for a particularissueor courseofaction” (VanclayandEnticott2011,260).Parables arenormative stories thatmythologisecertaintypesofbehaviouroftenthroughcautionarytalesabouttheoutcomesofinappropriateaction(Howdenand Vanclay 2000). And finally, story lines are argumentative narratives by which contrasting positions onissues are staked out; sometimes expressed as opposition to more stable scripts or parables, or even asparodiesofthese.Whenaparticularstorylinebecomesstabilizedbyacertaingroup,itcanbecomeascriptorparable.

Taken together, these different forms of narrative provide a useful analytical lens to distinguish dominantstories andways of understanding theworld frommore uncommon ideas orwhat can be termed ‘counternarratives’. InthiswayanalysingnarrativesthatareusedinWEFEpolicy-makingbecomesawayofexploringthepower-relationsthatareco-emergentwithparticularknowledgeorpolicyclaims.

2.2TheMAGICNexus-NarrativesIn the H2020 project a number of narratives3was identified through analysis of policy documents that

relate to the nexus water-energy-food, as well as by engaging around 30 policy makers from differentDirectorate Generals of the European Commission. The latter were not only involved in the process ofidentificationofnarratives,butalsoontheprocessoftheirvalidationthroughfocusgroupdiscussions.

At this workshop we have used 15 of those narratives4 to kick-off the process of critically looking at thenarratives that could possibly underpin model and other assessment frameworks used within the WEFEflagshipproject-aswayofexample,thefollowingtwonarratives,objectofagreatdealofdiscussionduringtheworkshop,wereusedbeingquiteusefulforthediscussionsheldattheworkshop:

3Seee.g.,https://magic-nexus.eu/documents/milestone-10-definition-policy-case-studies4Intheannextothisreportthecompletelistofnarrativesusedislisted,evenifnotallofthemwerediscussedduringtheworkshop.

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IntheMAGICproject,theQSTframeworkallowstoexaminethequalityofnarrativeswiththefollowingcriteriainmind:

1. Fairness:Howfairisthechoiceofthegivenpurpose–whendealingwithsustainability-Whatdowewanttosustain,Forwhom?Forhowlong?Atwhichcost?

2. Viability:Howreasonableisthechoiceofthegivennarrativewhencontrastingtheinsightsprovidedbyitwiththeinsightsthatcanbeobtainedbytheconsiderationofalternativenarrativesabouttheissue?–herewearedealingwiththequalityandrobustnessoftheknowledgeassociatedwiththeadoptionofthenarrative;

3. Usefulness:Howusefulisthechoiceof:(i)relevantagents,(ii)timescale(abeforeandanafterinthechoseneventsdescribedatagiventimescale),(iii)theidentificationofthecausalityassociatedwiththechosenexplanation,–hereweareintherealmofthepracticalproblemsfacedwhentryingtogenerateareliableinputtobeusedforgovernance.

Thesecriteriaare,asexplainedearlier,formalisedthroughtheQSTframeworkandtools.Attheworkshop,wedidnotfollowsuchastructuredmethodology,butcertainlythediscussionshintedatallthesecriteria.Hence,thewayweproposedtousethesenarrativesattheworkshopaimedatthefollowing:

1) TomakevisiblewithwhichpolicynarrativessomeoftheWEFEmodelscouldberesonatingwith,namelywhichonesarealreadybeingexploredbycurrentmodellingandwhichonescouldbeworthexploring,eitherbecausetheyareproblematicorbecausetheycouldturnouttobeuseful;

2) TodiscusswhichnarrativescouldbeusefultoexploreinviewofpolicydevelopmentthataddresstheWEFEnexusoronthecontrarybecausetheycouldturnouttobedysfunctionaltotheoverallpurposeofWEFEpoliciesthemselves.

3) Toreflectonaconcreteroad-mapforWEFEmodellingthatconsidersthediscussionsoftheworkshop.

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3. Discussions around WEFE narratives Thissectionreportstheanalysisofthediscussionsheldattheworkshopduringthebreak-outsessions.In

particular,we looked at transcripts of thediscussions triggeredby thenarratives, highlighting the salient orcontroversial issues identified by the participants of the workshop. The reporting is organised according tonarrative,evenifmanytopicsmightbeseenasunrelatedtothespecificnarrative,becausetheyemergedwhenthenarrativewasaddressed.Aswehaveseeninsection2,narrativesnotonlydriveimplicitgoalsandspecificwaysofactingbutalsotellaboutchosenknowledge,vestedinterests,aswellasinstitutionsandactors,whichsustainthem.

WEFE1

“Europeneedstoimprovetheaquaticenvironmentinordertosecurewaterforitscitizensandeconomicbenefits.RelievingstressonEuropeanwaterbodiesaccordingtoWFDgoalsmay translate into constraints on the European agricultural sector, leading to strongerdependency on imports that draw on external natural resources, in a worldwhere thepressureonthoseresourcesalreadyishighinmanyoftheexportingcountries.”

1. Thisisakeynarrativethatshouldbeaddressedbymodelling.2. Thisnarrativehighlightstheneedtoworkontrade-offsbeforethepoliciesareimplemented;sothere

seemstobeagreatdealofmodellingopportunitieshere.3. Toexploreinviewofthenexus:

a. Howisthisnarrative(needtoimproveaquaticenvironment)interplayingwithothernarrativessuchaspopulationgrowth,foodandfoddermarketalterations,agricultureproductionchanges,includingintensificationwithirrigationfertilisersandpesticidesindifferentregionsofEuropeorcropmarkets?

b. ExternalisationoffoodproductionhasmadeitpossibleforEuropetofocusontheagriculturalsector;yet,itisimportanttoexplorehowtheEuropeancountries’agriculturalsectorsandEuropeandietsneedtoreadjustiftheywouldnolongerbeabletoimportfodder.

c. Modellingoftheimpactsonbiodiversitycausedbyplannedland-usechanges,cropchangestoadapttoemergingenvironmentalconditions,aswellastherequirementstomaintainbiodiversityand,moreingeneral,theecosystemhealth.Biodiversity,doesnotseemtohaveenoughattentioninthemodelsdevelopedbytheJRC.

4. Specificneeds:a. Weneedtoolsbeyondpricetoreasonaboutproducinglessfood;theimplicationsforthe

nexusareexpectedtobeextensivebuttheycannotbeassessedsolelyineconomicterms.b. Mappingofwaterstressisneeded.c. Generalequilibriummodelsarenotsuitabletohandlethecomplexityofthetrade-offswhen

wearedealingwiththenexus.Forexample,biophysicalconstraintsarenotadequatelyhandled;weneedtogetridofthistypeofmodelling.

Summary:Thisnarrativetriggeredadiscussionaboutthetrade-offsamongdifferentdimensionsoftheWEFEnexus, inparticularwater, agricultureandbiodiversity - indeed, itwentbeyond thisnexus, e.g. by includingland-useaspects.Inordertotestitsvalidity,weneedtogobeyondsectorialmodellingandalsogetridofsomewidelyusedmodelsthatarenotappropriatetodothejob,suchasgeneralequilibriummodels.

WEFE2

“Water pricing and cost-recovery principle: Water pricing is proposed as a key policymechanism.However,thereisatensionwithcitizenneedsandusersdesireforfairprices.”

1. Thisnarrativewasseenasproblematicinmanysenses:a. Thenarrativeisaneconomicnarrative,andasmanyothereconomicnarratives,thisonealso

decontextualizes;also,thiseconomicnarrativeseemstoassumethatonceyouhaveacorrect

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price,youachievegoodgovernanceoftheresource;waterpricingisareductionistmeasureofwatervalueandcosts.

b. Waterpriceandcostrecoveryarenotthesamething;theyneedtobedecoupled.c. Thepriceofwaterimplicitlyassumeswhatthetrade-offsbetweendifferentusesofthat

water/thosewatersshouldbe.d. Ascertainingforwhatpurposeweneedtoestablishwaterprices,couldbeafirstexercise

becausethepurposeinfluencessubsequentmodellingefforts:e.g.environmentalprotectionvs.waterallocation.

e. Waterpricecannotbeusedinisolationtoestablishanypolicyaboutwater;waterpricesconcealpoliticaldecisionsarounddistributiveissues;waterpricingmaybecomeusefulif‘costs’and‘values’aretakenintoaccountalwaystogetherwithotherformsofassessment:forexample,ecosystems’valueisverydifficulttohandlewitheconomicmodels,soothertoolsneedtobefound.

f. Economicmodelscannotbeusedtodealwithwhatiscalledthe“ecosystemhealth”.Thereisapartofwater,whichisusedbytheecosystemforitsownhealth.Thisissomethingthatcannotbehandledineconomicterms.Inotherwords,whentalkingaboutecosystems,onecannotjustfocusonecosystemservices,butneedstoaddresstheirhealth,i.e.theecologicfunds.

2. Establishingapriceforwaterisverydependentontheobjectiveunderlyingtheneedtosetaprice,aswellasthecontextandfunctioninwhichsuchpriceisestablishedandforwhichusers(contexthereincludesgeographies,governancestyles,naturalconditions,humanvaluesaboutwater,regulationsinplace,waterpolitics,markets,etc.),aswellas,thewatersourcesthemselves.Isthisalreadyexploredwithmodelling?Howwellaretheimplicationsofwaterpricingfortheotherdimensionsofthenexusknown?

3. Canwethinkofnon-economicnarrativestoaddresspolicytogovernwaterresources?Whatwouldanecologicalnarrativelooklike?

Summary:Thediscussionof thisnarrativehas triggereda fewrecommendations: (1)anyworkonwaterpricingneedstobesitespecific;(2)modelsshouldbeabletoexplorealternativewaterprices,exploringthereforedifferent contexts,users, sourcesand function; (3) acknowledge that cost recovery is justoneaspectofpricescalculation;(4)waterpricingcanneverbeusedasthesoledimensionofanalysistogovernwater; (5) economic models are not appropriate to deal with the ecosystems’ health; (6) alternativenarrativesbasedonecologicaldimensionsshouldbeexplored.

WEFE5

“Global drivers (demographic, economic growth and climate change) and agriculturepoliciesmayfurtherstresswatersystemsandviolateenvironmentalflowrequirements.This might be one reason why current water policies fall short of achieving goodecologicalstatus.”

1. Thediscussionaboutthisnarrativehashighlightedthefollowingneeds:a. Hownutrientsaffectwaterqualitydoesnotseemtobeinthepolicynarrativebutthereis

modellingthatexplorestheeffectsofnutrientsinaquaticecosystemsandsothenarrativecouldbechangedtoreflectbetterthosestudies.Howcouldthedesirable‘ecologicalstatus’beattainedwithbettermanagementofnutrients(comingfromagriculturalpractices)?Thisisclearlyanexustypeofmodelling.

b. Thefollowingquotereflectsaneedtorefinethenarrativeandforfurthermodelling:‘IamfromDGXandyouarefromDGY.Itmeansthatquantityandqualityoftengointoconflict.Inonesense,thisisbecauseincreasingnutrientsincreasesproductivity,butitincreaseswaterpollution.’Again,thissuggestsarolefornexusanalysisandideasofcontrolofnutrientflowsinfoodproduction;understandingtheoriginofthelossesofnutrientswhichendinwaterbodiesneedsbetteruseofmodelsandexplorationoftrade-offsconsideringagriculturalpractices,management,politics.Forexample,trade-offsbetweenintensificationand

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‘extensificationofagriculture’5or‘sustainableintensification’couldaddressfurthertherolesofgeo-morphology,sitespecificenvironmentalvulnerabilities,populationgrowthtrends6,dietandfoodconsumptiontrends,foodwastemanagement,etc.Somebig-tierstudiesandglobalmodelsalreadypointtothe‘sustainableintensification’becauseitissaidthatmorefoodproductionisneeded–anothernarrativeworthexploringinitself.

c. Toaddressdistributionissueswithmodelling,e.g.theeffectsofbettertrade,ofexchange,etc.;thenarrativedoesnotseemtoconsiderthese.

2. Theexistinglegislation(namelyWFDandthegroundwaterdirective,aswellastheCAP)seemstohavebeenbuiltwithaflexibilitynarrative,whichallowsMSstoexploreadaptationtosomeconditions.However,themodellingwhichsustainsthoseideasofflexibilityandadaptationcouldbereinforcedwithmoreoptionstoexplorealternativemeasuresinordertobetterinformregionalplanning.

Summary: The reflections arising from this narrative clearly point to more effort on nexus modellingbeyond physicalmodelling. In addition, itmade visible other narratives such as the idea of ‘sustainableintensification’andtheideathattheexistingagriculturalpolicy isflexible(enoughtoenableMSstodealwithachangingenvironment).

WEFE6

“Desalination and wastewater reuse can help relieving water stress while generating atrade-offwithgreenhousegasemissions.However,theirpotentialcontributionisfarfrombeingassessedonacomprehensivemanner.”

Thediscussionofthisnarrativeledtoconsideringworthexploringinthecontextofalternativeusesofwater,withmodellingthefollowingelements:

a. Waterrecoveryversusenergyconsumptiontodoit(especiallyfordesalination),andgreenhousegasesemissions.

b. Thetypeofenergyusedtorecoverwater(solarenergyisfine,butsolarpanelsdonotimplyfreemeal,resourcesneedtobeused,includingotherenergytoproducethem).

c. Understanding(mapping)thestatusofgroundwaterincoastalzonesthatcouldputinjeopardywatersupplyforhumanactivitiesbecauseofsalinization.

d. Exploringotheralternativesourcesofwater,focusingon‘local’specificitiesofclimateandgeology.

Summary:ThediscussiontriggeredbythenarrativefitswellwiththerecentProposal foraRegulationoftheEuropean Parliament and of the Council onminimum requirements for water reuse (COM(2018) 337 Final).Modellingwouldbeusefultounderstandwhereandhowtechnologiessuchasdesalinationcouldbeusefulandhowthosewaterrecoverytechnologiesaffectotherdimensionsofthenexus.

5 A comment to this was made that these terms are a politicised version of expressions like

sustainable management or sustainable management of livestock, which are viewed as more neutral terms. The narrative of neutrality is in itself problematic. There is no such thing as neutral words.

6 With the 3 security needs: food, energy and water.

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WEFE7

“Thegoodstatusisasoundpolicygoalthatneedstobeassessedthroughacommonandcoherentprotocol.

Challenge 1: Quality control of the monitoring and assessmentprotocol.

Challenge2:Theprocedurefordefiningtheobjectiveof‘goodstatus’and ‘good potential’ has evolved through time in adaptation toMSrequirementsandconstraints.However,anopendebateofdifferentnormativecriteriatodefinewhatisgoodstatusisstillmissing.

Challenge 3: Is it possible to achieve good status for all EU waterbodies?”

1. Thereisnoright/wronganswertothisnarrative,butareflectionneedstobedoneaboutwhatcountsas‘goodstatus’7.Agreatdealofindicatorsandamulti-criteriaapproachareneededtobeabletogetjusttoanimperfectmodel.So,thisqualifier‘goodstatus’mightnotbeagoodstartingpointtomodelwaterqualityasitrequiresalevelofcomplexitythatisunmanageablebycurrentmonitoringinfrastructurebutalsobymodelling.Thequestionscouldbe:

a. Whataretheimplicationsforpolicyfornoteventrying?b. Cancomplexitybeareasonfornottryingtoaddressit?c. Howmodellingeffortscouldbeenhancedtoaddresssuchcomplexity?d. Whatmonitoringeffortneedstobeassociatedwithsuchaneffort?e. Canweaspiretocontinueonagovernancenarrativethatreliesonmonitoringand

control?Aretherealternatives?2. Nexustypemodelscouldpossiblybeofhelpwiththecomplexityofestablishingwhatgoodecologicalstatuscouldlooklikeindifferentcontexts.

Summary:Thediscussionaroundthisnarrativehighlighteddifferenttypesofchallenges,namelywithconceptsused in policywhichmay turn out to be unusable because theymay be reductionist and impractical at thesametime.Alsothediscussionhighlightedthatparticularmodesofgovernance(monitoringandcontrol)areinneedofreview.

7“Thereareanumberofobjectivesinrespectofwhichthequalityofwaterisprotected.ThekeyonesatEuropeanlevelaregeneralprotectionoftheaquaticecology,specificprotectionofuniqueandvaluablehabitats,protectionofdrinkingwaterresources,andprotectionofbathingwater.Alltheseobjectivesmustbeintegratedforeachriverbasin.Itisclearthatthelast three - special habitats, drinking water areas and bathing water - apply only to specific bodies of water (thosesupporting special wetlands; those identified for drinking water abstraction; those generally used as bathing areas). Incontrast,ecologicalprotectionshouldapplytoallwaters:thecentralrequirementoftheTreatyisthattheenvironmentbeprotectedtoahighlevelinitsentirety.”Inhttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-framework/info/intro_en.htm

WEFE8

“Firstgenerationbiofuelshavecreatedatensionbetweenobjectivesofwater,energyandagriculturalpolicy(land-use).Theywereexpectedtoprovideasolutiontoenvironmentalproblemscausedbytherelianceonfossilfuels.However,firstgenerationbiofuelsarenolongerapolicypriorityandarefadingoutofthemainnarratives,beingreplacedbysecondgenerationbiofuels.”

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Thisnarrativeledtoageneraldiscussionoftheuseofnarrativestolookintomodellingandotheractivities.Thestudyofwhogeneratesthesenarrativesandthroughwhichprocessesthosenarrativesaregeneratediscrucialalsoforthemodellingexercise.

1. Biofuelsdonotseemtogoawaydespiteknowledgesuggestingthattheydonot‘provideasolutiontoenvironmentalproblemscausedbytherelianceonfossilfuels’.Climatechangehasbeenthejustificationtodeploythistechnology,butgivingthecontroversiesthecurrentandnextgenerationsofbiofuelstrytoaddressotheraspectsofthenexus,namelyfoodsecurity.Thisnarrativepromptsthequestionofwhoisinterestedinmaintainingthebiofuelsimaginary8.Aresecondgenerationbiofuelsrespondingtothetensionscreatedtootherdimensionsofthenexus(e.g.water,landuseandsoil)?

2. Inrelationtoenergyproductionandmanagement,severalissueshavebeenhighlightedaspoorlyaddressedbycurrentmodelling:

a. ThehydropowerdevelopmentplansfortheEUanditsalternativeuses-Whatisthesustainabilityofthosehydropowersystems?Sustainableaboutwhatandforwhom?Howaretheybetterthanmicroandminihydropowersystemsintheplannedlocations?

b. Themanagementofthediversityofelectricitysourceshasgrownincomplexityduetoquitedifferentproductionandstorageofelectricityproduction.

Summary:Thisnarrativehasillustratedinaverypragmaticwaythatatechnology(atechno-fix)conceivedtoaddresssocietalissues(energyneedsandclimatechange)hasactuallycreatedtensionsinotheraspectsofthenexus.Theeffectsofsuchtechnologycanbeaddressedwithmodellingbutmoreworkwouldneedtobedoneto enquire about the promises of the narrative and the technology itself and about who is interested inmaintainingthem.Issuesofexternalisationofeffectsalsoneedtobeaddressed–seediscussionofnarrative13.

WEFE9

“Agriculturalpolicyincreasinglymovesawayfromanarrowfocusonfoodproductionalsoincorporatingenvironmentalobjectives,contributingtoboth,mitigationofandadaptiontoclimatechange.

1. Thisnarrativewasseenasslightlyproblematic:a. Weneedtodistinguishwhetherwearedealingwithadaptationtoclimatechangeortosocial

change,namelychangesinagriculturalpracticesandactivitiesdisplacement,andmarketsor,also,thegrowingurbanisationtrendswithdramaticlandusechangesandlandimpermeablilisation;theseposechallengesthathavenothingtodowithclimate;thenarrativemaybe‘hiding’actualdriversofchange.

b. Climatechangenarrative:insteadofaddressingclimatechangeinagriculturewithirrigation-asanadaptationstrategy-otherstrategiescouldbesought,namelychangingcropsandadaptingtheagriculturepracticestothe‘new’climate.Theideaistokeepawayfromthiswell-knowntechno-fixandingeneralbecriticaloftechno-fixnarrativesbecausetheycannarrowdowntherangeofsolutionsthatcanbeimagined.

2. Modellingopportunities:a. Modellingcouldbelookingatmultifunctionallanduse;inotherwords,differentlanduses

couldbehypothesisedbeyondproducingcrops;thenarrativeisthathumanactivitiesarenotjustaboutproducingcommodities.Thistypeofworkshouldbedonebymodellersinclosecollaborationwithotherstakeholders.

b. Hence,theeffectsoflandusechangee.g.urbanization,landabandonment,onthenexusgovernanceneedtobeassessed.Thisisveryrelevantformodellingandscenariodevelopment.

c. Alsotheland-usechangesandchallengesposedbyexternalisationofagricultureinothercountriesneedstobetakenintoconsiderationbythemodellingnarrative.

8 Other example is GMOs, which were supposed to address food security issues and in fact is completelydominatedbycorporateinterests.

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3. Aswithothernarratives,thisonealsochallengedtakenforgrantedconcepts:Whatarethemeaningsofsustainableagriculture?Sustainabilityofwhatandsustainableforwhom?Whoisentitledtoaccessorganicfood?

Summary: the discussions inspired by this narrative suggested the examination of its usefulness; whetheragriculturalpracticescouldhaveotherfunctionsbeyondfoodproductionisnotanissue,buttheenvironmentalobjectivesneedtogowellbeyondclimatechangemitigationoradaptation.Thereareopportunitiestoexplorewithmodellingalternativelanduses.

WEFE12

“Environmentalpolicyandespeciallymitigationmeasurestopushdecarbonisationmightcontradicttheobjectiveofminimisingsupplyrisksinregardtoenergy,foodandwater.”

A narrative that could be tested with nexus modelling; how would decarbonisation strategies affect the 3securities?

WEFE13

“In order to reach sustainability goals, environmental impacts need to be externalisedsuchaswithregardtolivestock,withmanyproductsbeingimportedfromSouthAmerica.Hence,landscapeprotectionandconservationhappensattheexpenseofdegradationofotherregionsoftheworld.”

1. Ontheexternalisationofimpacts:a. TheideathatintheEU,“landscapeprotectionandconservationhappensattheexpenseof

degradationofotherregionsoftheworld”couldbeaddressedalreadybyexistingmodellingbuttherearesomemissing‘feedbacksinsomeregionalmodelinfrastructure’.Amappingofwhatisproducedwhere,andconsumedwhereintheEUisneeded.

b. Theexternalisingaspectisworthexploringfurtherthroughmodelling;howEUpolicyaffectsothercountriesthathavenotproperlybeenanticipated(e.g.thebiofuelsproductioneffectsinMalaysia,forwhichdirecteffectshavenotbeenpartoftheanalysisundertakenatthetimeofpolicyproposal)

c. Exploringhow‘protection’and‘conservation’thresholdsimpactEUecosystemsbutalsoecosystemsinotherregionsoftheworld.Whendoweestablish‘healthyenough’andhowdoesthisimpactdifferentsectors?–theWFDreviewmightnotbetakingenoughaccountoftheinteractionwiththeothersectors,sothisneedstobeextended.

2. Thisnarrativetriggeredadebateaboutwaterqualitylinkedtoagriculturepractices,namely:a. Thequalityofwatermonitoringisanissue(namelyfortheNitratesdirective);modelsthat

workwiththesetypesofdataneedtoaddressthequalityofthedatacollected.Modelscouldgobeyondthenarrativeof“compliance”toaddressinsteadthe“quality”ofthemeasurementsandhowtheyactuallyreflecttheobjectiveof“environmentalprotection”.Differentmeasurementmethodologiesareusedtoassessenvironmentalissues:couldwaterqualitymonitoringstrategiesbenefitfromairqualitymonitoringexperiences?Coulddifferentsystemsofmonitoringco-exist?(e.g.citizensciencetogetherwithnationalnetworks)Ifsohowcouldmodellingcaptureorexplorethese?

b. Thenitratesthresholdsareproblematicforecosystemhealth.Thisiscertainlyanissueformodelling.Also,alternativepracticesscenarioscouldbeexploredthroughmodellingortheeffectsofpricevariationsofnitrogenorphosphatescouldalsobebetterunderstoodwithregardstoalternativefarmingpracticesoreventomanuremanagementpractices.Inadditionmodellingisneededtounderstandtheimpactofinefficientuseoffertilisersinthequalityofwaters,e.g..

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c. Withregardstothelatter,manurereuseandmanagementappearswithinanarrativeofefficiency.However,thereareseveralissuesthatshouldbeanalysed:1)manureprocessingorchemicalfertilisersmanufacturingarenotusuallyaccountedforinenergybills;2)manureisapollutantthatarisesbecauseofexternalisationoftheagriculturalsector;3)manuremanagementchoicesifa‘lessmeat’narrativeisadopted.

d. Manurereusealsoappearsonanarrativeofoldpracticesofsoilproduction(whichhaveamoremodernname:permaculture),giventhatthepastdecadesoffertilisationofsoilhaveparadoxicallydestroyedtheminmanyplaces.Thisnarrativeisnotwellstudiedanditcertainlycouldconstituteoneavenueformodelling.

3. Challengingthemaximisationofprofitnarrative:modellingandscenariodevelopmentshouldnottakethisgoalforgranted.

a. Policymakersandmodellersalikeshouldbelookingatothergoalsbesidesthe‘maximisationofprofit’andtheassociatedtechno-fixandmarket-fixnarrativesthatsustainit.‘Inaddition,thequestioncouldbeaskedwhetherregulationisbeingsoughtforasystemthatisnolongereconomicallyviable’.

b. Issuesofdistributivejusticeshouldbeexaminedbymodels,forexampleexplorehowalternativeagriculturalpracticesthatdonotrelyon‘maximisationofprofit’impactonthepriceoffoodorecosystems’health.

4. Healthasanelementofthenexustobeexploredthroughmodelling:howfarmingpracticesandfoodproductionchangesimpactcitizens’health.

5. Exploreotherfarmingnarratives:culturalheritage,landscapecuration,environmentcarers,etc.Howaretheseothernarrativesbeyondfoodproductionentrenchedinmodellingandhowcantheybeexplored?

6. Anarrativeaboutresilienceseemstobemissing.Howwouldmodellinglooklikewithsuchanarrative?

7. Anopendebateofdifferentnormativecriteria,todefinewhatgoodstatusis,isstillmissing.

Summary:Throughthisnarrativemanyissueswereraisedaboutothercommonlytakenforgrantednarrativesand entrenched concepts in them. Also, during the discussion other missing narratives were identified. Allthesearerelevantformodellingbuttheiroperationalizationneedsfurtherwork.

WEFE14

“Itisnecessarytopromoteatransitionfromcurrentconsumptionandproductionpatternstoacirculareconomy.This transitiongoesbeyondanarrow focusonwastemanagementbeing positionedwithin a broader concern about energy consumption togetherwith CO2emissions.Alsothistransitionisexpectedtocreatelocaljobsandfostereconomicgrowth.”

1. Thecirculareconomyrightnowinthefieldofwaterismainlyrelatedtowateruseandrecoveryofnutrientsfromwater-mainlynitrogenandphosphorous.

2. Theoriginalnarrativeof‘bio-economy’byGeorgescuRoegenhasnothingtodowithwhatisnowdescribedasbio-economyanditisincompatiblewiththenarrativeofgrowthwithwhichthisconceptisbeingassociated–‘growingbyrecycling’?.Indeed,theoriginalterm,impliesthat‘ifwerespectthespeedatwhichthingsaregoinginthebiologicalsystem,wehavetogrowslower;wearegoingtoofastcomparedwithnature.’Thiswouldbeworthexploringthroughmodelling;towhatextentcanwetalkaboutperpetualgrowthinbiophysicalterms.

3. Needtolearnfrommistakeswithbiofuelspolicyinordertonotrepeatthemwithbio-economy,namelyhowtechno-fixesmighthinderthewholeeffortofdealingwithcurrentsocietalchllenges.

Summary:Thisnarrativeishighlycontroversialandmodellingcouldhelpwithestablishingtowhatextentthenarrativeandassociatedpoliciesassociatedareusefulorevenviable.

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4. Elements for nexus modelling “Youhavemodellerswho tend to sell theirmodels. Yougive themwhateverquestionandtheysay,‘Icandoit’.Thisisthewrongattitude,butsinceitisthecaseformany,asXXXsaid,weshouldnotadopttheoppositewrongapproachinsaying,‘Letusdefinethequestionthatthemodelscanhandle’. Weshouldplayandchoosethemodeldependingonthequestionthatwehave. Wehavetochallengethemodellersandsay, ‘Youcannotusethatmodelforthatpurposeandwewillgotoanothermodel.’”Participantattheworkshop.

This sectionhighlights and to a certain extent suggests elements that thenexusmodelling effortwithin theWEFEprojectcouldpossiblyconsider.

Generalrecommendations:

1. Asthequoteaboveillustrates,itisproblematicwhenamodelisofferedastheDavosoraclethroughwhichall(policy)questionscanbeanswered;ontheotherhand,theoppositeoflookingonlyfor(policy)questionsthatcanbeansweredbycurrentmodelsisanotherimpracticalstrategy.Therecouldbeaneedforthemodellingteamstodelvemoreontothelimitationsofthemodels,thenarrativestheyareresonatingwithandpossibilitiesofexpansionvis-à-visthediscussionsatthisworkshopandotherdiscussionsintheliterature.Thiscouldbedonethroughlistingthetypesofquestionsthatthemodelcancurrentlyanswerandthekindsofquestionsthatneedtobeanswered.

2. Thediscussionsattheworkshopalsosuggestedthatthiseventwasjustthestartingpointofwhatcouldbedonetoenhancethenexusmodellingthatinformspolicymaking;inotherwords,theformatofengagingscientists,modellersandpolicyofficersandperhapsotherstakeholderscouldbehelpfulwithdesigningmodelsthataddressrelevantpolicyquestions,tuningthematthesametime.Moreover,theworkshopmadeitclearthatthereisnotsuchthingasaneutralnarrative.Narrativesentrenchchoicesofseveralsortsandchoicesaremadebasedonvaluejudgmentwhateverthatvalueis.

3. Theworkshophighlightedthattherearetrade-offstomakewhenitcomestonexusmodelling,butusingproxiesandambiguous,simplisticconceptstoaddresscomplexitiesanduncertaintiesmightnotbetherightdirection.Alongtheway,manyconceptsweredeemedoftentimesuselessandpotentiallyhinderingtheobjectivesofpolicies.Forexample:‘goodecologicalstatus’,‘goodstatus’,‘sustainableintensification’ofagriculture,‘circulareconomy’,‘bio-economy’,etc.

4. Thenarrativespresentedfordiscussiontriggeredagreatdealofcritique;long-standingandtakenforgrantednarrativessuchas,‘maximisationofprofit’asthegoal(infoodproductionandingeneral),agricultureasbeingonlyaboutfoodproduction,techno-fixessuchas‘irrigation’or‘biofuels’ascureandadaptationtoclimatechange,waterpricingasakeypolicymechanismoreconomicmodelsandmarketstocurateenvironmentalissuesweredeemedinneedofurgentreview.Againmodellingcanexplorealternativenarrativesandgoals,perhapsinvolvingupfrontactorswhoseinterestsgobeyondpureeconomicones.

5. Bythesametokentheparticipantsfoundthatsomeelements(orothernarratives)needtobebroughttothemodellingeffortaroundtheWEFEnexus,forexample,resilience,health,sovereignty,subsidiarity,whichcouldturnouttobeothernexusesaltogether.Theseothernexusesarealsoimportanttorecogniseinanymodellingeffort;itisnotsufficienttoconsiderjustpoliciesrelatedtoagriculture,energyorwaterandtheirinterdependencieswhenaddressingtheWEFEnexus;theyarenotindependentofissuessuchas“globalsecurity,sovereignty,independenceofexportsandimports”insomeareas,etc.Infact,whenonestartsdelvingintowhatonethinksshouldlogicallybedoneintermsofthenexusofpoliciesonwater,energyandsoon,onebumpsagainstothertypesofnexus.

6. Thescaleatwhichwedothemodellingofnexusissuesneedstobedecided.Manyvariationsarestronglydependentonlocationandpracticesanditisnotfeasibletotakethemintoconsiderationonacontinentalmodellingexercise.So,thisshouldbediscussedamongstthemodellers.Astartingpointtocomplexifyanarrativecouldbeintroducingthe“local”versustheglobalortheintegrationofdifferentscales.

Amoreconcretelistofactionablepoints.

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• Agoodstartingpointcouldbetowritedownthestorythatcurrentmodelstellandexplorewithothershowthatstorycouldbeenhancedvis-à-vispolicyneedsandnexuscomplexities.

• Tounderstandwhatkindsofmodelsareneeded.Itseemsthatfromthediscussionsattheworkshop,futureorientedexploratorymodelsareneededtomakesenseofthenexus–seequoteinBox1.

• Whateverisdone,furtherengagementwithrelevantactorsfrompolicybutalsoadministrationsinordertomakesenseofdifferentframingsaboutthesame‘symptom’,‘differentunderstandingofproblemsandpotentialsolutions’–seequoteinBox2.

• Exploremodellingaroundthenexusthatseemtobemorewellestablishedlikewaterandagriculture,movingontointegrateenergyandecosystems.

• Applysensitivityauditingtoexistingmodelling(Saltellietal.2014).

• Usethecritiquetothenarrativesasastartingpointtoexplorenexusmodelling–seesection3.

• Increasegranularityofmodelsanddonotassumethattheycanbeappliedanywhere.Modelsshouldbetailoredforthegeographiestheyaremeantto.

• Addressissuesarisingfrominexistent,noisyorincompletedata.UnderstandtheneedsformonitoringindifferentcontextsandmakerecommendationstoMSs.

• SearchforothernexusesthatcouldbehinderingpolicymakingaboutWEFEnexus.

• Someissuesaremissingfromthenarrativesandfromthemodelling;e.g.pollinatorsandbiodiversityaremissinginanyofthenarrativespresented.Inventoryofmoreissuesthataremissingisneeded.

• Exploreconceptssuchasecosystemshealth,e.g.,resistingtheeconomisationofmodellingabouttheWEFEnexus.

Box1:

“ThereishowtheNitratesDirectiveisevolving,butalsohowtheNitratesDirectivewouldliketoevolveandwhatwouldtheimpactbe.Whatscenariosarethere?[…]Whatwouldyouusefullysay?Youhaveherethepossibility to testnotthebaselineasyouwere saying, but to test hypothetical scenarios,what you would like. What is happening if we?What ishappening if that? However, it shouldbesomething acceptable. In the end, the narrativeshouldbemorespecificthanthat[thoseoffered].”Participantattheworkshop.

Box2: “Youalso see thatall thepeoplewhohavean opinion about that, all the stakeholderconstituencies,theyhavetheirownnarratives.Forexample, when you talk about pesticides, theenvironmental people will have a narrative abouthow bad it is for the environment and how weneed to reduce their use. However, thepesticideindustry has a narrative of how they secure foodproduction and how good this is. It is a verydifferentangleonexactlythesamething. Usingatool that produces numbers is a way of bringingthosepeopleintothesameroom.Youmaygettoagreeintheroomthatthesearetherightnumbers.We may have different views, but these are thenumbers to talk about. Then you have made ahugestepalready.”Participantattheworkshop.

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5. References

Allen,T.F.H.,Tainter, J.A.,Pires, J.C.,&Hoekstra,T.W. (2001).DragnetEcology—“JusttheFacts,Ma'am”:The Privilege of Science in a Postmodern World: Science of intrinsic quality needs narratives with explicitvalues—not just facts—particularly as it facesmultiple-level complexity in advising on environmental policy,suchasplanningforenergyfutures.AIBSBulletin,51(6),475-485.

Bruner,J.(1991).Thenarrativeconstructionofreality.Criticalinquiry,18(1),1-21.

Howden, P., & Vanclay, F. (2000).Mythologization of farming styles in Australian broadacre cropping.RuralSociology,65(2),295-310.

Ingold,T.(2011).Beingalive.Essaysonmovement,knowledgeanddescription.London:Routledge.

Mellor,F. (2007).Collidingworlds:Asteroid researchandthe legitimizationofwar inspace.SocialStudiesofScience,37(4),499-531.

Saltelli, A., Guimarães Pereira, Â., Van der Sluijs, J. P., & Funtowicz, S. (2013). What do I make of yourlatinorum? Sensitivity auditing ofmathematicalmodelling. International Journal of Foresight and InnovationPolicy,9(2-3-4),213-234.

Vanclay, F., & Enticott, G. (2011). The role and functioning of cultural scripts in farming and agriculture.SociologiaRuralis,51(3),256-271.

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Annex

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