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Transcript of Water Resources Technical Stakeholder Meeting Update on 2017-02-28¢  in 2012 (AMP5)....

  • Water Resources Technical Stakeholder Meeting

    Update on demand management and resource options

    07 February 2017

  • Overview of the water resource challenge. Historical droughts 1920 - 2010

    London WRZ Growth: 530 Ml/d

    Climate change: 200 Ml/d

    SWOX WRZ Growth: 95 Ml/d

    Climate change: 20 Ml/d

  • How we develop our next Water Resources Management Plan – WRMP19.

    3

  • Resilience assessments

    Environmental performance

    Bottom up risk and updated cost

    WRMP19 rejection register

    P ro

    g ra

    m m

    e a

    p p

    ra is

    a l

    Option feasibility

    reports

    System level assessment

    P re

    fe rr

    e d p

    ro g

    ra m

    m e

    C o

    n c

    e p

    tu a

    l d

    e s

    ig n

    re p

    o rt

    f o

    r c

    o n

    s tr

    a in

    e d

    li s

    t

    C o

    n s tr

    a in

    e d

    l is

    t o

    f

    o p ti o

    n s

    S c re

    e n

    in g

    r e p

    o rt

    A d

    v a

    n c

    e d

    p ro

    g ra

    m m

    e

    in v e

    s ti

    g a

    ti o

    n s

    WRMP14

    options

    Option

    investigation

    needs

    New options

    3rd party

    options

    Methodology reports

    Our approach.

  • October Technical Stakeholder Meeting – A recap.

    5

    Demand management

    • Overview of the process to develop and screen options, and the unconstrained options

    considered.

    • Outline of how programmes of options are developed and input to the programme

    appraisal.

    • Feedback sought on the approach and the draft constrained list of options.

    Resource options

    • Recap on the 4-phase programme, the engagement undertaken throughout this

    process, and the documentation.

    • The methodology to assess option types was accepted as robust.

    • Overview of the options assessments, stakeholder discussion and comments (Meeting

    minutes are available)

    • Feedback sought on the feasibility reports and the draft constrained list of options.

  • Objectives of today.

    • To present the comments received on the demand management and

    resource options, our responses to them, and the revised draft constrained

    lists of options.

    • To provide an update on additional work to examine feasible options.

    • To set out the next steps and reporting.

    • To seek comments and feedback from stakeholders.

    6

  • Today

    10:00 Welcome & introduction - Chris Lambert (Chair)

    10:15 Demand management options – Anthony Owen

    10:45 Resource options

    10:50 Groundwater Feasibility Report – Victoria Price

    11:20 Coffee Break

    11:30 Raw Water Transfers – Alice Mortimore, Chris Lambert, Kieran Conlan

    12:30 Reuse, Desalination, Direct River Abstraction – Bill Hume-Smith, Kieran Conlan

    13:00 Lunch

    13:45 Reservoir and Catchment Management – Chris Lambert

    14:15 Screening Decisions and Updated Constrained List – Bill Hume-Smith

    14:20 Update on the system work – Keith Banner

    14:30 General discussion and Q&A

  • Anthony Owen, Thames Water

    Demand Management Options

  • Outline

    • Introduction to demand management

    • Address stakeholder comments on…

    • Screening process and investment terminology

    • Metering programme

    • Incentive scheme and innovative tariffs

    • Next steps

    9

  • Every day we put ~2,600 Ml into supply – where does it go…

    10

    Household usage is

    > 50% of demand

    Leakage is

    ~25%

  • Demand management to 2020

    11

    106.5 Ml/d Demand Management

    (>70% of the deficit)

    2015 - 2020

    L o n d o n M

    l/ d

    Area Previously AMP6

    Leakage >300 Ml/d reduction

    (32%) since 2004

    Further 59 Ml/d

    reduction (10%)

    Metering Roll-out smart meters >441,000 progressive

    meters to increase

    coverage to 55%

    Water efficiency 17 Ml/d savings in

    AMP5

    Double to 38 Ml/d

  • Stakeholder feedback

    12

  • Screening process & investment terminology

    13

    Stakeholder comment Summary of response

    What is ‘IDM’ and how

    does it fit into the

    screening process

    • Integrated Demand Model (IDM).

    • The model was used for WRMP14 and is being

    updated for WRMP19.

    • IDM is a DMA based model. IDM selects

    feasible demand options for a DMA to reduce its

    leakage & usage.

    Is the IDM optimisation

    process independent of

    resource options

    • IDM simply optimises for least cost demand

    option interventions for DMAs.

    • A range of optimised demand management

    programmes from IDM are optimised against

    supply options in EBSD+ and MCS.

  • 14

    DMAs

    Leakage (Ml/d)

    Usage & Wastage (Ml/d)

    Feasible Options

    Costs (£)

    Benefits (Ml/d)

    Scenarios

    Target Levels of

    Demand Management

    D M

    A C

    o st

    B e n e fi

    t O

    p ti

    m is

    a ti

    o n

    Output

    Mix of Investment

    Options

    Investment Spend per

    Option

    Levels of Leakage,

    Usage & Wastage

    E c

    o n

    o m

    ic B

    a la

    n c

    in g

    o f

    S u

    p p

    ly &

    D e

    m a

    n d

    m o

    d e

    l

    Range of

    optimised

    demand

    programmes

    EBSD

    The screening process, IDM and EBSD models

    IDM

    MCS

  • 15

    Programme Appraisal

    EBSD+

    IRAS/ MCS

    • Range of Demand

    Management

    programmes

    • Constrained list of

    Resource options

    • Future S/D forecast

  • 16

    EBSD+

    MCS

    “Least cost”

    Is an optimisation to

    solve the deficit for

    simply the lowest

    financial long-term cost

    “Best value”

    Considers solutions beyond

    simply least cost and appraises

    them on, for example,

    environmental and resilience

    benefits/ dis-benefits

    Stakeholder comment Summary of response

    How does ‘best value’ get

    considered

    • EBSD+ and MCS determine ‘least cost’ and ‘best value’

    supply/ demand programmes via the Programme

    Appraisal process.

  • Metering programme

    17

    Stakeholder comment Summary of response

    Can the metering

    programme be rolled out

    faster

    • Legal powers granted for compulsory metering

    in 2012 (AMP5).

    • WRMP14 (2014) made the case for installing >1

    million smart meters in 15 years.

    • Quality vs Quantity:

    • i) Streetworks access

    • ii) Work quality control

    • iii) Customer engagement journey

    • c140,000 Progressive meters since 2012…..

    • Installing approx. 10,000 smart meters/month

    TW metering penetration

    should be higher than

    industry average, not

    below

    • Access to install internal meters in flats is

    challenging (10% success rate).

    • Approx. 50% of London is flats & this is

    increasing.

    • The start of our programme has focussed on

    improving London meter penetration.

  • Current levels of metering WRMP14 change in levels of metering in next 15 years

    33% - 72%

    53% - 91%

  • Incentive scheme and Innovative tariffs

    19

    Stakeholder comment Summary of response

    Update & progress on

    the Incentive scheme

    • Reward based scheme to incentivise customers

    to use water efficiently.

    • Trial underway in Reading, due to be expanded

    into London in 2017

    • Publish draft feasibility report in Spring’17.

    Have financial tariffs

    being screened out

    • No.

    • We have completed technical investigations &

    consulted customers.

    • Will be considered in the future when meter

    penetration is >60%.

    • Will follow-on from Incentive scheme.

    Consideration of wider

    opportunities from the

    Incentive scheme

    • Effective tool to incentivise specific behaviours,

    for example rewards during dry periods.

  • Provisional Feasible Options

    20

  • Next steps

     Publish draft Non-potable options feasibility report in