Water Information Research and Development Alliance ... · RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE (WIRADA)...

WATER INFORMATION

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

ALLIANCE

(WIRADA)

SCIENCE PLAN

2 MAY 2008

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WIRADA

Science Plan

CONTENTS

1. Background......................................................................................................................3

2. Motivation and Vision.....................................................................................................4

3. WIRADA Scope and Objectives ......................................................................................4

4. WIRADA Investment Profile ...........................................................................................8

5. Benefits and major research outputs ............................................................................9

6. Structure ........................................................................................................................11

7 Scientific Streams, Objectives and Deliverables .........................................................13

7.1 Stream 1: Water Information Systems........................................................................13

7.2 Stream 2: Foundation Data Products ..........................................................................21

7.3 Stream 3: Water Accounting and Assessment............................................................31

7.4 Stream 4: Water Forecasting and Prediction..............................................................43

Table of acronyms.................................................................................................................................52

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WIRADA SCIENCE PLAN

1. Background

In late 2007 the Australian Parliament enacted the Water Bill 2007, which provides the

legislative framework for a national water plan and will formally commence as the Water Act

2007 (the Act) in early 2008. Part 7 of the Act expands the role of the Bureau of Meteorology

(the Bureau) to include the following functions:

• hold and manage all of Australia’s water data

• report on the status of Australia’s water resources, patterns of water use and

forecasts of future water availability

• maintain a comprehensive set of water accounts for the nation

• set national standards for water use metering and hydrologic measurements

• influence and support state-based investments in water monitoring and water use

metering programs; and

• commission strategic investigations and procure special data sets to enhance our

understanding of Australia’s water resources.

The Act places responsibilities on the Director of Meteorology to deliver specific products

within prescribed timeframes. Furthermore, the Bureau is highly motivated to deliver client

focused meaningful services and products which will contribute to its new functions under

the Act. Given that these new responsibilities greatly enhance the Bureau’s role in water

information: conceptualisation, development and production of the new services will require

a staged implementation involving capacity building, partnership development and the

establishment and maintenance of operational systems. One key aspect will be the manner

in which the Bureau will address its scientific (Research and Development (R&D)) needs. The

Bureau does not intend to build an internal R&D capability, rather it intends to leverage off

the existing hydrology and water resources R&D capabilities already present in Australia. In

this regard, the Bureau proposes, through this agreement, to co-invest in research with the

CSIRO. It is well recognized that the CSIRO has been building its capacity in these areas in

recent years and by co-investing the Bureau and CSIRO will be able to target this R&D to

meet the needs of the new Water Act.

This document describes the framework of R&D activities to be undertaken under the Water

Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA). It specifically identifies areas of

opportunity where joint (the Bureau and CSIRO) investment would produce outcomes in

support of the Bureau’s new water information role. It is intended as a companion

document to the Umbrella Agreement which describes the terms, conditions and

governance arrangements under which activities (projects) will take place.

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2. Motivation and Vision

MOTIVATION

Sustainable water resources management decisions must be based on reliable water

information services and products, which in turn require high quality data and sound science

to be provided through robust, modern delivery systems.

The management of Australia’s water resources is facing many challenges such as climate

variability and change, growing urban demands, over allocations of resources, etc. The

availability of nationally consistent services and products, including water resources

assessments, national water accounts and water forecasting and prediction tools will be

essential to future decision making at national, regional, state and local levels.

Over the past decade water-related agencies in Australia have collected and maintained

growing volumes of water information in closed proprietary systems. This has met

immediate business needs, however during this time there has been growing acceptance

that increased sharing of water data between jurisdictions would provide significant benefits

beyond its immediate use and thus meet a greater number of identified needs.

VISION

The shared vision of the Bureau and CSIRO for Australian Water Information is:

3. WIRADA Scope and Objectives

SCOPE

Investment in the areas of work outlined by this Science Plan will provide the Bureau with

the scientific capability it will require to meet its objectives for improved management and

utilisation of water information. It will also greatly enhance national capabilities in these

specific and related areas. This five year program will ensure that the combined capabilities

and experience of the Bureau and CSIRO are brought to bear on the science required to

develop the knowledge and tools necessary to meet the short and long term needs of the

Bureau.

The scope of the research framework in this Science Plan includes the following areas of

focus:

• Water Information Systems

• Foundation Data Products

• Water Accounting, Assessment and Long-Term Prediction

• Water Forecasting

TO IMPROVE THE MANAGEMENT OF AUSTRALIA’S WATER RESOURCES THROUGH THE

DELIVERY OF VALUE ADDED WATER INFORMATION PRODUCTS BASED ON A

COMPREHENSIVE, INNOVATIVE AND ROBUST NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES

INFORMATION SYSTEM.

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WIRADA will be focused on the R&D to underpin the operational requirements for the

current and future versions of the Australian Water Resources Information System (AWRIS).

There will also be substantial research and development occurring outside the WIRADA

agreement through other partners and different research funding arrangements that will be

important to align, apply and develop in this particular domain (Figure 1). Research

undertaken through the CAWCR Joint Venture arrangement between CSIRO and the Bureau,

focussing on the ACCESS model development, will have clear applicability to the climate,

atmosphere, and numerical weather prediction needs of a national water information

system, but are not being developed for that purpose alone. Likewise complementary work

through CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country flagship in the Water Resources Observation

Network, Better Basin Futures, Urban Water and Healthy Water Ecosystems themes and the

eWater CRC will complement the WIRADA investment and contribute to the overall vision of

the Bureau’s Water Division.

FIGURE 1 RELATIONSHIP OF WIRADA WITH SOME ALIGNED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

EFFORTS WITHIN AND OUTSIDE CSIRO

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PROGRAMME OBJECTIVE

The Bureau has a challenging set of obligations to deliver on in the next 5 years. To achieve

these obligations, the Bureau will have to undertake tasks that push the boundaries of

existing knowledge and methodologies. WIRADA will provide the core R&D capacity for the

development of new methods, tools, techniques and knowledge to underpin the

development of robust operational systems by the Bureau in the water information area.

The Bureau will naturally view its R&D needs in the context of its mission to deliver AWRIS.

Figure 2 provides a conceptual process flow for the delivery of such a system. Each step

provides an opportunity for innovation and thus the process flow forms the basis of the

research framework. WIRADA research activities will likely span multiple steps of this

process, thus the process flow is not the structure of this science plan. Rather, the process

diagram is used in the descriptions of R&D streams and topics to indicate the contribution of

each of the identified research areas to the overall process.

TO DELIVER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TO UNDERPIN THE BUREAU’S OPERATIONAL

WATER INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR AUSTRALIA.

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FIGURE 2 CONCEPTUAL PROCESS FLOW FOR A NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES INFORMATION

SYSTEM

DELIVERY OF AN OPERATIONAL WATER INFORMATION SYSTEM WILL REQUIRE THE

FOLLOWING ABILITIES:

DISCOVER: FINDING DATA, AGREED VOCABULARIES FOR DATA EXCHANGE.

INGEST: INFRASTRUCTURE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR HANDLING UPTAKE

AND DISTRIBUTION OF LARGE VOLUMES OF WATER DATA

ASSEMBLE: TOOLS, MODELS AND FRAMEWORKS FOR THE ASSEMBLY OF

DATA AND MODELS INTO USEFUL COVERAGES BOTH IN TIME

AND SPACE

POLISH: IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA

THROUGH AUTOMATED QA/QC (Care will need to be taken in this

activity to ensure that actual extremes and outliers are not impacted by

the processes applied)

AUGMENT: USE THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO INFER OTHER ELEMENTS OF

THE WATER BALANCE IN SPACE AND TIME

ANALYSE: APPLYING THE COVERAGES, DATA AND MODELS IN A

HYDROLOGICAL CONTEXT FOR HISTORICAL AND SYNOPTIC

VIEWS

PREDICT: APPLYING THE COVERAGES, DATA AND MODELS IN A

HYDROLOGICAL CONTEXT FOR FORECASTING AND PREDICTION

OF WATER RESOURCES

SHARE: DELIVER RAW AND PROCESSED DATA TO USERS AND TO THIRD

PARTY TOOLS IN STANDARD FORMS

REPORT: DELIVERING INFORMATION FROM ALL STAGES TO

STAKEHOLDERS THROUGH FLEXIBLE, UNDERSTANDABLE AND

VISUALLY EFFECTIVE TOOLS

THIS DIAGRAM IS USED LATER IN THE SCIENCE PLAN TO INDICATE THE RELATIVE

CONTRIBUTION OF EACH OF THE IDENTIFIED RESEARCH AREAS TO THE OVERALL

PROCESS.

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STREAM OBJECTIVES

R&D areas that CSIRO and the Bureau have identified as relevant to the Bureau can be

grouped according to the following broad streams:

1. Water Information Systems: Activities under this stream will be focused on the

development of a systems architecture for water information systems that is robust and

evolvable with changes in data sources, applications and technologies. This includes a

framework of open standards for information exchange, data and computational services,

and tools for visualization, quality assurance and analysis of historical data and real-time

data from monitoring infrastructure.

2. Foundation Data Products: Developing methodologies, data models and techniques for

creating and maintaining fundamental hydrological information products to support water

information management, reporting, forecasting, assessment and accounting.

3. Water Accounting and Assessment: Developing spatial and temporal information about

the past and present generation, distribution and use of water resources. Using this

information to develop water balances, water resource assessments, national water

accounts and interactions between components of the water cycle at many scales.

4. Water Forecasting and Prediction: Extending the Bureau’s hydrological forecasting

services from short-term flood forecasting to continuous forecasting of flows, water

inundation and water demand several days out as well as water resources availability

forecasts to one or more seasons.

The R&D scope described in this plan exceeds the resources available to WIRADA. Therefore

some areas of research will be delivered through other investments, while others may not

occur in the life of the agreement.

It is expected that, over the life of the agreement, the WIRADA investment profile will vary

across the streams and will be reviewed on a continuing basis by the management

committee. Furthermore, it is anticipated that investment in Streams 1 and 2 will

predominately occur early, as they will provide the foundations for Streams 3 and 4.

4. WIRADA Investment Profile

This section discusses the WIRADA investment in terms of short, medium and long term R&D

activities as distinguished from operational activities, including the relative mix of

investment and the expectations on R&D projects for delivering to operational systems.

It is recognised that WIRADA needs to support R&D that has a path to adoption through

operational deployment within the Bureau’s existing business systems. This will apply to

short medium and longer term activities that carry higher risk, while holding the potential to

revolutionise some aspect of the Bureau’s practice. WIRADA will not be supporting

operational activities that require no research input.

WIRADA R&D activities will be categorised as being of a Horizon 1, Horizon 2 or Horizon 3

nature:

Horizon 1 R&D: involves the review, adaptation and application of existing technologies,

with project outputs that are ready for operational deployment within 12 to 18 months.

Horizon 1 R&D is expected to constitute 30% of the WIRADA portfolio.

Horizon 2 R&D: involves significant, targeted new research topics, with a clearly articulated

path to impact. Project outputs should be operational within 2 to 5 years. Horizon 2 R&D is

expected to constitute 60% of the WIRADA portfolio.

Horizon 3 R&D: involves activities with greater risk and greater potential for impact, having a

clearly articulated ability to revolutionise practice in future years. While Horizon 3 projects

do not require operational deliverables, it is envisaged that the likely success of the activities

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will be evident through review no more than 24 months from the start of the project.

Horizon 3 R&D is expected to constitute 10% of the WIRADA portfolio.

WIRADA exists to deliver CSIRO R&D into operational systems within the Bureau. While it is

not expected that WIRADA projects will manage the transfer of R&D to operations, it is

essential to consider both the operational environment and migration process as part of

project planning.

The Bureau has a substantial history of transferring R&D to operational systems. This

experience is captured in processes for managing the transfer, including mitigating the

impact of any change to the system, as well as the impact on users and downstream

systems. The transfer processes include generic aspects, applicable to the Bureau’s water

information responsibilities, as well as very detailed processes that are specific to the

operational systems within the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre. The

Water Division will create tailored procedures that take account of AWRIS and other Water

Division systems. WIRADA project leaders will work with the Water Division staff, and the

Bureau’s Operational Systems Implementation Committee (OSIC) in planning the transfer to

operations for project deliverables.

These considerations have informed both the Science Plan, and the terms of the WIRADA

agreement.

5. Benefits and major research outputs

BENEFITS

The Bureau and CSIRO will both gain significant benefits from co-investing in WIRADA. The

Australian Government and the public will benefit through efficient and effective use of

taxpayer funds. WIRADA focuses a considerable proportion of CSIRO’s water information

investment in the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship with the needs of the Bureau’s

Water Division. The capability of these two important national institutions will together be

able to deliver more value than would otherwise have been the case.

Benefits to CSIRO Benefit to the Bureau

• Greater impact of CSIRO research

through well defined delivery

pathway (specifically to the Bureau’s

operational services and systems)

and enhanced opportunity for

operational adoption of CSIRO

innovations

• Improved access to the Bureau’s

science infrastructure and data

• Improved security of funding for

nationally important water

• Capturing a critical mass of highly

relevant R&D expertise to focus on

Bureau needs in the water

information space

• Future flexibility to change R&D

effort to focus on new challenges

and directions, due to CSIRO’s large

capability across many closely

related fields

• A shared ability to develop and

evolve crucial systems and

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information research

applications in the area of water

information, at a scientific level

comparable to leading counterparts

internationally and consistent with

policy demands in Australia

MAJOR RESEARCH OUTPUTS

Although a comprehensive description of research outputs will be provided in the detailed

work-planning, specific research outputs are outlined in the stream descriptions in this

document. The following table provides an overview of some of the major outputs WIRADA

will deliver in its first five years.

STREAM MAJOR RESEARCH OUTPUT

Water Information Systems

Water information standards Protocols and reference software

implementations for the management and

transmission of water information, forming

the basis of National Water Information

standards

Service mediation Registries, ontologies, tools and services for

the integration and composition of data and

processing services and products

Efficient delivery of National water

information

Web Services for the ingestion, automated

QA/QC and delivery of historical and real

time spatio-temporal coverages, point

observational, and geospatial datasets

Reporting and visualisation techniques for

new water information

New models and tools for reporting,

querying, visualising and data mining water

information for a variety of applications,

including water resource managers, and

policy and decision makers

Foundation Data Products

Australian Hydrological Geospatial Fabric Design and methodology for structuring and

populating a national geospatial framework

as the spatial structure of surface water and

groundwater features used in water

accounting, assessment and long-term

prediction

Improved estimation of precipitation Current and historical gridded rainfall

products at a scale and quality useful for

hydrological applications.

Improved estimation of actual Current and historical gridded ET products at

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evapotranspiration (ET) a scale and quality useful for hydrological

applications.

Remote sensing of water storages and

inundation

Improved accuracy of streamflow, runoff

interception, flood and inundation

assessments and forecasts.

Water Accounting and Assessment

Integrated water resources accounting and

assessment

Standards, framework and system for

integrated water resources accounting and

assessment

Groundwater Methods and tools suitable for groundwater

accounting and assessment of different

aquifers throughout Australia

Catchment Water Balance Methods and tools suitable for catchment

water balance accounting and assessment

for both gauged and ungauged catchments

throughout Australia

Water in rivers and storages Methods and tools suitable for river and

storage water accounting and assessment of

river systems throughout Australia

Water extraction, usage and entitlement

accounting

An annual accounting system for water

extraction, usage and entitlement

Water Forecasting and Prediction

Short-term river flow and flood inundation

forecasting

Extension and enhancement of current flood

forecasting modelling system, methods and

tools for next generation of forecasting

systems, and inundation forecasting

modelling system

Seasonal inflow and water demand

forecasting

Skilled and widely applicable models for

seasonal forecasting of multi-site inflow,

flood risk, spatially distributed runoff and soil

moisture, and water demand at multiple

scales

Long-term water resources prediction Consistent methods and tools, that can be

applied regularly and widely in Australia, for

predicting decadal water resources

conditions and quantifying uncertainties

6. Structure

LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE

CSIRO and the Bureau are committed to establishing a simple, but effective governance

structure. Whilst meeting the necessary governance requirements of each institution, the

structure will enable ready, transparent and cost effective management of WIRADA.

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The governance structure will consist of a Management Committee, Program Director and

Project Leaders.

A Program Director selected by and reporting to the Management Committee will manage

Project Leaders selected to run Projects within the Program.

Each project will have a Bureau employee nominated as sponsor to act as the key contact for

the project team within the Bureau.

MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE

The Management Committee will be the highest level of management in the structure.

Proposed members of the Management Committee are:

• An independent chair

• Director of Meteorology (Bureau)

• Deputy Director (Water) (Bureau)

• CSIRO Group Executive (CSIRO)

• Director of the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship (CSIRO)

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7 Scientific Streams, Objectives and Deliverables

7.1 Stream 1: Water Information Systems

OVERALL OBJECTIVE

This stream covers R&D to create a system architecture for a robust and evolvable Water

Information System. This will include:

• Water Information Standards: Open standards, interfaces and services for the

discovery, sharing and access of water information and metadata

• Service Mediation: Techniques and technologies to facilitate integration of water

information services

• Efficient Delivery of Water Information: Web based technologies for rapid and

efficient delivery of complex information and models

• Reporting and Visualisation Techniques: Technologies for customized and

automated reporting of data, analyses, reports and forecasts, along with

assessments of uncertainty for the full range of water information.

Water Information Standards

DESCRIPTION

The Bureau is required to collate, manage and

distribute a very broad range of water information,

from the large number of public and private

organisations that currently manage it. Agreed data

standards for water data are lacking. Indeed, even in

situations where a single product dominates the data

management market, variations in data

representations still occur and this hinders attempts to

take a national approach to water information. Standard approaches need to be developed

that cover both the form of the data (syntactic standards), and the content of the data,

including metadata.

Standards of the nature referred to here have been developed for other natural resources

domains, often under umbrella standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium.

There are currently international efforts to define water information standards, such as the

recently formed International Water Data Interoperability Forum. Standard development

efforts under WIRADA would involve supporting and contributing to these groups.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop a common conceptual model for water information to accommodate some

variation in syntactic data standards and facilitate evolution of the standards.

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• Develop syntactic data standards for use in the automatic ingestion of data by the

Bureau’s information systems and for the consumption of data by subsequent

applications such as water forecasting models. These standards should be open, in

that they should be freely available to both data providers contributing to the

information system, and also to data consumers, such as application developers

creating tools that retrieve and process water information.

• Develop reference implementations for each concept within the standard, serving

several purposes including validation of the standards and facilitating adoption of

the standards.

• Validation tools for conformance testing.

OUTCOMES

• Standards for the management and transmission of water information to be

incorporated in the Regulations associated with the Act (the Regulations).

• These standards will be the language used to describe and transmit water

information between data collectors and the Bureau and onward to data and

product users.

• Promotion of the standards and their subsequent uptake by groups outside the

Bureau, such as tool developers, will result in more effective and timely uptake of

the Bureau’s water information products, thus realising a greater national return on

investment.

KEY OUTPUTS

• Evolvable Water Information Standards, covering in the first instance the data

elements required by AWRIS, documented in an agreed form and developed in

collaboration with all stakeholders, including Australian and international groups.

• Reference software implementation for standards.

CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED

• Information modellers

• Conceptual modellers

• Software developers

• Collaboration with international groups

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PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE

• The Water Information Standards will be implemented within AWRIS, as the

communication protocol for both ingesting data into AWRIS from providers and for

providing data to users.

• The standards will be a component of the compliance regime in the Regulations and

the published standards facilitate compliance by data providers with the

Regulations. It may be possible and desirable to commodify the use of the standards

to facilitate adoption, such as creating a standard bridge between state based

databases (eg. HYDSYS) and the Bureau’s AWRIS.

Service Mediation

DESCRIPTION

The development of an enduring

information system requires consideration

of the long term evolution of the system

architecture. Most operational systems of

similar scope and content to the Bureau’s

envisaged water information system rely

on either largely static component

interfaces and data models, or else a

highly centralised architecture of

sufficiently small scope so that a very small number of people can understand and maintain

it. Such systems are unable to neither take advantage of the knowledge capital of the

community of expertise; nor readily adapt to changes in requirements, scope, content and

conceptual knowledge in the domain. Such changes require disruptive across-the-board

software rewrites, and create a significant maintenance burden.

A semantic approach to information systems seeks to create evolvable systems by relying on

declarative descriptions of information resources and information processing tools within

the system, along with declarative descriptions of the information needs of users. General

purpose inferencing engines can then be used to orchestrate access to information

resources to satisfy the information need.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop tools that manage the relationships between multiple representations of

standard information models in conventional artefacts such as controlled

vocabularies, object oriented software diagrams, ontologies, XML Schema

definitions and relational database schemas.

• Develop tools that support composition of services, including the development of

audit trails over the computation process, enabling repeatability of analyses.

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• Develop methods for machine interpretation of security and privacy policies,

especially where they range over multiple parties, enabling automatic deployment

of policy enforcement procedures within service-oriented information systems.

OUTCOMES

• The application of semantic approaches to inform the AWRIS architecture will

support the development and evolution of the system into the future.

KEY OUTPUTS

• Registries to enable the publication and discovery of models and data services

• Demonstration tools for use by domain experts in the discovery, composition and

use of a range of services

• A water resources ontology for use in domain independent semantic reasoning tools

• Tools and services for converting between syntactic data models

• Middleware for enforcing security and privacy policy


• Computer and information scientists with expertise in semantics and web services

• Software development

• Linkages to domain expertise in hydrology


• It is proposed to develop a program delivering a series of demonstrators that

illustrate the concepts and embed the research outcomes at gradually improving

levels of maturity. Outputs would be developed to a level suitable for

experimentation within the Bureau amongst selected key staff, and then transferred

to the Bureau or a contractor for development of an operational capability.

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Efficient Delivery of Water Information

DESCRIPTION

The Bureau is facing new challenges in the

ingestion, management and delivery of water

resources information, both in terms of the large

number of data sources and the very large data

volumes associated with some of those sources.

The Bureau has significant experience in delivering large quantities of data to the general

public and to a range of specialist groups. Much of this delivery uses traditional technologies

such as web pages (HTML, graphics), and file based data transfer (FTP). Furthermore, most

requests are for relatively small amounts of data, albeit from a very large number of clients.

The Bureau now faces new challenges in the delivery of large amounts of water information

to a diverse user community, including delivering data to a range of third-party modelling

and analysis tools.

The adoption of web services as a delivery mechanism is critical to the efficient uptake of the

water information resources and applications, but presents challenges in developing services

that efficiently transfer large amounts of data and in defining service interfaces that

encourage application developers to be efficient in their information access.

Ingestion and management of a large number of data streams requires automation of the

data input process, particularly in areas of data QA and QC, managing data update and

revision and dealing with real time data streams.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Development of services for efficiently extracting and transmitting large regular data

sets (2D grids, 3D data cubes and higher dimension data cubes).

• New services types to reliably, easily, automatically and efficiently update copies of

point of truth datasets. These services will include update, authentication and

subscription services.

• New QA/QC algorithms for the identification and rectification of errors in real-time

data streams.

OUTCOMES

• Allow AWRIS to provide response times in line with user expectations through

technology that underpins key components of AWRIS, including the enabling

framework and the web interface.

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• Minimising the human intervention required in the ingestion and management of

data streams through automation of QA/QC and real time data input.

• Improved transparency through an efficient mechanism for updating and version

control of data products.

• Simpler management of the multitude of data inputs to the Bureau’s water

information systems.

KEY OUTPUTS

• Services for the delivery of large spatio-temporal datasets in a form and timeframe

appropriate for modelling.

• Delivery of real-time data and point observations from a large, distributed water

information network.

• Incorporation of inline automated QA procedures for the delivery of real-time data

and the construction of archive records.


• System Architecture

• Software Development

• Database Architecture

• Statistical data quality control


• Tools and techniques developed in this area will be embedded within the AWRIS

enabling framework and web interfaces. Following adoption of deployment

protocols between CSIRO and the Bureau it is anticipated that tools developed in

this area would be able to be embedded in the operational system with minimal re-

engineering.

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Reporting and Visualisation Techniques for Water Information

DESCRIPTION

Reporting is a key component of each of the

water information products to be developed by

the Bureau. In addition to the specific reporting

requirements of each product, there is the

requirement for generic reporting capability to

allow users to retrieve water information

products and the underlying data at the points in

time and space of relevance to them. Visualisation can greatly enhance the understanding

and analysis of water information. The ability to deliver interactive visualisations of spatio-

temporal gridded, observation and feature data sets will provide valuable analysis

capabilities to users.

Within the water resources domain there are a growing number of websites delivering

dynamic data, such as reservoir levels or streamflow forecasts. These sites have, at least

partially, automated the maintenance and publication process, although typically the

resulting product is still quite rigid and it can be difficult for a user to re-purpose the

information for a different application.

More broadly, in other domains, advanced data analysis techniques have been developed to

deal with large and complex data sets. Data mining is used in domains such as market

research and fraud detection to help identify patterns that exist in large and multi-

dimensional datasets.

User configured reporting systems exist in several domains, ranging from custom RSS feeds

(eg Google News) through to prototype systems such as iJournal that dynamically integrate

plain text reports with live data feeds and model outputs.

Technology for visualisation of multi-dimensional data both on the desktop and over the

web has been developed. This is best evident in the uptake of spatial information by the

general public through tools such as GoogleEarth. Applying these general technologies to the

water domain provides opportunities to create more accessible and widely used water

information products.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Design a query model that allows the user to retrieve information from locations

based on the geospatial fabric data model, information based on time window

(historical, present, future), available variables (eg flow, storage, entitlement) and

other metadata (eg method, author and quality).

• Develop reporting services for the construction of a range of ‘consuming’

applications, including the Bureau’s systems and third party tools (models). The web

service interface should be constructed such that the calling application can

interrogate historical data, forecasts and outlooks using the same protocol, thus

allowing individual applications, such as river models, to use these data sources

interchangeably.

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• Develop a reporting interface allowing end-users to construct reports based on the

query model, and save these report configurations for automatic updating and

republishing. Such a reporting system must allow the user to include multiple

information elements and configure their appropriate presentation, along with the

specification of validation constraints that specify the conditions or events under

which the dynamic report is sensible.

• Explore the use of data mining techniques for identifying patterns across space, time

and specific attributes. This includes statistical tools for objectively identifying trends

and patterns and visualisation techniques for assisting human operators to identify

relationships between information elements in multiple dimensions.

• Explore visualisation technologies for delivery of 2-, 3- and 4D (spatio-temporal) data

over the web. These includes investigating techniques for integrating gridded,

observed and feature data sets that may have spatial and temporal variability, as

well as the generation of visualisation workflow components allowing rendering of

particular views of a dataset.

OUTCOMES

• High quality reporting and visualisation capabilities to underpin the publication of

national water accounts and national water resource assessments.

• Dynamically updating, user customisable reporting will reduce the development

effort required to create reports for the Bureau, and ultimately for other

stakeholders.

• Advanced data interrogation, such as data mining, and integrated, interactive

visualisations will increase the value derived from the information by providing

opportunities for new insights and inferences across a national dataset.

KEY OUTPUTS

• Query model and tools

• Reporting model and tools

• Data mining tools

• Visualisation tools

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• Human factors and user interface design

• Information and Database Architecture

• Software development

• Real time event detection

• Statistical science


• Tools developed in this area would be embedded within the AWRIS enabling

framework and web interface. Following adoption of deployment protocols between

CSIRO and the Bureau it is anticipated that tools developed in this area would be

able to be embedded in the operational system with minimal re-engineering.

Ultimately, other stakeholders will be able to integrate these tools into their own

business systems.

7.2 Stream 2: Foundation Data Products

OVERALL OBJECTIVE

The Bureau’s national water reporting, assessment, accounting and forecasting products

must be underpinned by high quality spatial data, including a consistent national hydrologic

spatial structure (geospatial fabric) as well as spatio-temporal data on key components of

the water balance. This stream covers the development of methodologies, data models and

techniques for populating core hydrological data products in the following areas:

• Design and development of an Australian Hydrological Geospatial Fabric which will

provide the framework for connecting components of the physical water cycle

• Methods for improved estimation of precipitation nationally for hydrologic

assessment and forecasting

• Methods for improved estimation and prediction of actual ET nationally for

hydrologic assessment and forecasting

• New techniques for detecting water in the landscape including private storages and

flood inundation.

22

Australian Hydrological Geospatial Fabric

DESCRIPTION

An important element of a national water

resources information system is the relationship

between incoming temporal data streams and

the corresponding spatial features: the

catchments, streams, aquifers, floodplains,

storages, and wetlands that make up the

hydrological system. Developing and delivering

water resources information requires linking

these features with information about the interactions between features. At present there is

no national geospatial data set suitable for hydrological applications.

At a minimum, the Australian Geospatial Fabric will include at least the following key

national data sets:

• a hydrologically sound, consistent digital elevation model (DEM)

• a stream network with associated stream network topology and relevant level of

partitioning of components (eg river reaches)

• an aquifer data set and information on groundwater-surface water connectivity

• key measurement points (including sites of gauges, bores, storages (reservoirs and

farm dams), off-takes, etc)

• reporting boundaries (eg catchment boundaries); and

• floodplain and wetland boundaries.

A national geospatial fabric must be underpinned by a sophisticated data model to capture

the complexity and connectivity of hydrologic features. Additionally, the geospatial fabric

must be populated with consistent national data for those features, captured at a

sufficiently high resolution for use in the water information products envisaged by the

Bureau. As a basis for the geospatial fabric, the best national, hydrologically sound DEM has

a resolution of 9”. Higher resolution national elevation data is available through SRTM (3”

and 1”) though this requires correction to create a hydrologically useful dataset. Finer

resolution data is available in some regions, but there has not been any integration of this

data nationally.

23

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Development of an appropriate data model, based on ArcHydro, for representing

the Australian hydrologic system.

• Convergence of existing spatial data, including merging stream network with the

location and specification of engineered structures such as storages and gauging

stations.

• Methods for representing groundwater resources in a hydrologic geospatial fabric,

including characterising interactions with surface water.

• Derivation of improved spatial data sets, including a hydrologically sound national

DEM, mapped and generated stream networks, drainage areas and permanent

water bodies.

• Methods for characterising reach and landscape attributes.

OUTCOMES

• Consistent and linked spatial structure for the analysis and publication of national

water accounts and water resources assessments by the Bureau.

• More efficient and consistent river and catchment modelling nationally.

KEY OUTPUTS

• A new National Hydrologic DEM at an appropriate resolution for national water

accounting and assessment and streamflow forecasting.

• Information model, revised over a number of years, for representing key elements of

the Geospatial Fabric.

• Populated Geospatial Fabric for a challenging case study catchment.

• Delivery of the complete, national dataset undertaken by an operational spatial

analysis group with supervision and quality control through WIRADA.


• Information modelling

• Terrain analysis

• Research spatial analysis

• Surfacewater and groundwater hydrology

24

• Collaboration with operational spatial analysis group for population of national

geofabric


• Development of the national geospatial fabric is envisaged as a collaboration

between WIRADA and an operational spatial analysis group in the Bureau, with

WIRADA developing the methodology and the data model and then validating these

in a substantial catchment case study. The operational group would then populate

the geospatial fabric nationally, with further R&D performed as necessary during

review of this process.

Improved Estimation and Forecasts of Precipitiation

DESCRIPTION

As the key driver of runoff processes, the quality

of rainfall data has a major impact on accounting

historical and current conditions and for

forecasting future conditions on various

timescales.

Current methods for the measurement and

estimation of rainfall fall into the following

categories:

• Real time observation of rainfall by ground based radar, satellite and the rainfall

gauge network

• Construction of gridded rainfall datasets, at scale and accuracy useful for

hydrological applications, utilising past observations, based on time series at climate

observing stations or gridded data

• Production of rainfall estimates from deterministic and ensemble based dynamical

numerical prediction models initialized from real time observations

The best way to improve precipitation data products is to combine observations from

multiple ground based radars and satellite-based sensors with rainfall gauge data to yield a

space-time distribution with minimal bias and quantified errors. Application of these

methods in real time is limited by the gauge network and the ability of the dynamical

prediction models to assimilate these data and represent precipitation processes within the

dynamical framework.

25

Methods for forecasting and long term prediction of rainfall include:

1. Generation of rainfall forecasts at roughly 3 timescales:

• < 1 hour (for applications such as flash flood forecasting): combining radar-based

observations and diagnostic techniques.

• 1 – 6 hours: ‘now-casting’ through combination of observations and time–space

structure of rainfall.

• 1 hour – 2 weeks: Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) based on output from

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which includes convective and non-

convective precipitation and thunderstorm probability.

2. Forecasting of seasonal rainfall either via indices or seasonal forecasting models

such as POAMA.

3. Climate projections of future rainfall amounts and distribution.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Use non-sequential model-data assimilation and rainfall reanalysis to develop better

historical gridded precipitation surfaces, using multiple sources of information

including streamflow observations.

• Effectively blend gauge, radar and satellite rainfall observations in real time to

provide accurate initial condition for numerical weather prediction.

• Model data assimilation including forward modeling, error characterisation and

quality control to incorporate rainfall (satellite, radar, gauges etc ) and moisture

observations into the initial state of dynamical prediction models.

• Improve the representation of microphysical processes within the framework of

ACCESS to improve precipitation prediction.

• Utilise land surface soil moisture observations to improve numerical weather

prediction modelling.

• Down-scale ensemble rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction to scales

appropriate for hydrological forecasting.

• Characterise the errors structure of dynamical precipitation prediction and down

scale ensemble.

OUTCOMES

• Reduced uncertainty in rainfall inputs to national water accounting through reliable

spatial patterns and accuracy of historical rainfall data products.

26

• Better precipitation forecasts and realtime rainfall observations for use in

streamflow forecasting.

KEY OUTPUTS

• Observations and short-term forecasts of precipitation amount and intensity in

regions of hydrological importance.

• New gridded rainfall products (including quantified errors).

• Daily to weekly ensemble forecasts of rainfall suitable for use in streamflow

forecasting applications.

CAPABILITIES REQUIRED

• Expertise in all methods of rainfall observation

• Expertise in spatial and temporal structure of precipitation

• Statistical analyses and modelling

• NWP, especially using NWP to forecast rainfall

• Spatial and temporal interpolation of rainfall observations

• Data assimilation methods suitable for rainfall


• Improved methods for deriving historical spatial patterns of rainfall will be

embedded within existing operational systems for producing gridded rainfall

products. These products, along with realtime observations will be embedded

within operational streamflow forecasting. Improvements to NWP will be developed

with CAWCR for embedding in ACCESS.

27

Improved estimation and prediction of actual evapotranspiration (ET)

DESCRIPTION

Observation and prediction of land surface actual ET

is available from 3 sources:

1. Direct observations by eddy covariance

towers of spatially averaged actual ET fluxes

at fine time scales (hourly) but over a small

area (~1km2).

2. Spatial estimates of actual ET from high resolution surface energy budget as used in

land surface schemes of NWP models. This accounts for latent and sensible heat

fluxes, heat storage in biomass, and the role of turbulence in scalar transport, but

accumulates scaling errors arising from the coarse scale of atmospheric modelling.

3. Spatial estimates of actual ET from models that are less complex and data intensive,

but of higher spatial resolution and flexible enough to be directly constrained by a

variety of observations. This includes:

o One or two-layer surface energy balance methods where a simplified land

surface scheme is represented by one or two sources of sensible and latent

heat fluxes.

o ‘Empirical’ scaling models which utilise some measure of ‘potential’ ET

based on meteorological conditions and then scale this to actual ET based on

a coefficient determined from plant type (e.g. a ‘crop factor’ expressed as a

function of vegetation, soil moisture content or soil moisture availability).

Apart from computational efficiencies the advantage of these latter methods is their ability

to utilise other surface observations such as streamflow, in situ soil moisture networks,

remote sensing observations (land surface temperature and NDVI) and eddy covariance

observations constrain the model.

INNOVATION NEEDED

• Develop new methods for estimating soil moisture through remote sensing such as

optical, thermal and microwave observations

• Develop new methods for estimating actual ET constrained by multiple observations

including satellite observations, flux towers, hydrological data and direct soil

moisture profiles

28

• Characterize uncertainty in actual ET estimation through inter-comparison of actual

ET methods and through model ensemble estimates.

• Improve ET representation in climate modelling, and develop method for down-

scaling climate model output of ET to scales appropriate for hydrological

applications.

• Gaining access to an increased range of ecosystems, catchments, and climates

observed by direct flux measurement methods will facilitate the

calibration/validation of model-data assimilation schemes.

OUTCOMES

• Reliable estimation of a key input to water balance studies and hydrological

modelling, resulting in better constrained estimates of inflows, river losses and

recharge.

• Better forecasts of soil moisture status as initial conditions for better weather

forecasting and rainfall-runoff response forecasting.

• More accurate and finer scale estimates of spatial actual ETare required to constrain

surface water balance modelling.

KEY OUTPUTS

• High quality gridded daily actual ET products, including quantified uncertainty


• Spatial hydrology

• Earth observation and remote sensing

• Model-data fusion and statistical classification techniques

29


• Improved methods for deriving historical spatial patterns of actual ET will be

embedded within existing operational systems for producing gridded estimates of

actual ET products.

Remote sensing of water storages and inundation

DESCRIPTION

Improved information on the extent of inundation

of water bodies is needed to better characterise

the evaporative losses from open water (including

large storages, private storages, floodplains and

wetlands), the runoff interception behaviour of

private storages and the extent and propagation of

flooding.

Evaporation from permanent and ephemeral

water bodies has been identified as one of the greatest uncertainties in estimating river

system losses. Farm dams are an intercepting activity to be managed under the NWI,

requiring information on the current state and trends in the total volume and distribution of

storages. Currently farm dam mapping is done by eye and hand, which is cost-prohibitive for

recurrent mapping of large areas. River gauging is often scarce or absent in Australia’s drier

interior, and here remotely sensed observations, river extent and floodplain inundation

provide important hydrological information on the progression of large floods. Flood

warning and environmental management require detailed information on the area

inundation under different flow conditions. This information has been developed for small

parts of Australia only (e.g. the River Murray Floodplain Inundation Model).

Reliable remote sensing techniques exist for open water mapping at different scales.

However, as demonstrated by the costly farm dam mapping exercises, there is a trade-off

between accuracy, frequency of mapping, and spatial detail in mapping. Methods of open

water mapping from remote sensing can occur principally through integration of

complementary remote sensing data sources that, when combined, allow open water

mapping with high resolution in time and space with high confidence.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• An operational open water detection system that produces daily updates on

inundated areas at 500-1000 m resolution in near-real time.

• An operational technology and methodology for recurrent detailed water body and

farm dam mapping and volume estimation at finer scale.

• Developing these data types requires development of unsupervised remote sensing

classification and mapping algorithms.

30

OUTCOMES

• Reducing the uncertainty in water accounts, through better understanding of

wetland and water body losses and runoff interception by farm dams.

• Improve the spatial detail and accuracy of streamflow, flood and inundation

forecasts.

• Provide valuable information for environmental managers (e.g. to plan

infrastructure works or plan environmental releases).

KEY OUTPUTS

• Methodology and algorithms for operational detection and monitoring of inundated

areas at various spatial scales.

• Archived open water coverage products for development and parameterisation of

forecasting models.


• Remote sensing interpretation

• Model-data fusion and statistics

• Data standards and data delivery


• The algorithms developed will be embedded in operational earth observation

systems within the Bureau

• Operational application of the new methodologies will be undertaken by staff, either

within the Bureau or within an operational spatial analysis group, to update maps of

small storages

• Recurrent mapping of private storages may be relevant to compliance monitoring

processes.

31

7.3 Stream 3: Water Accounting and Assessment

OVERALL OBJECTIVE

To properly manage and share our limited water resources, it is essential that we accurately

account for how much water is available (temporally and spatially) and how water is used.

We need a consistent, robust and agreed accounting framework and system that can be

applied across Australia. We also need to be able to quantify the impacts of various drivers

on water resources to inform policy-making.

The Bureau will be required to routinely deliver a comprehensive set of water accounts for

the nation. The national Water Accounting Development Committee has identified the need

for developing standards for:

• Water market accounting

• Water use accounting

• Water resources accounting

• Water for the environment accounting

The standards set the benchmark for reliable water accounting to serve a range of users.

Water accounting system design, methods and technique development needs to be based

on best-practice natural resource accounting principles and hydrological and water resource

sciences. The methods and techniques include the use of statistical analysis and hydrological

modelling to effectively use available data and provide estimates of quantities. To deliver

water accounts in a timely manner, computing tools are essential to integrate the water

accounting system into the Australian water resources information system.

Water accounts report on the current status of the nation’s water resources and patterns of

water use. Over time, water accounts can be used to identify changes in water resource

conditions and water use. Further analyses can be carried out to understand the causes and

implications of the changes. The cause and effect relationships are in turn useful for

improving water accounting methods, as many quantities need to be inferred from limited

or non existent data by using established quantitative relationships. Continuing

improvement to accounting methods and techniques is also important as technologies for

monitoring, data collection and processing continue to leap forward.

The objective of R&D in this stream is to design water accounting standards and systems

based on user needs and best-practice natural resource accounting principles, develop

methods and techniques based on the best available science, and develop computing tools

for integrating the water accounting system into the Australian water resources information

system. The R&D is also to provide research analyses and tools for understanding key cause

and effect relationships for changes in water resources conditions and implications.

32

This stream consists of the following areas of R&D:

• Integrated water resource accounting and assessment

• Groundwater

• Catchment water balance

• Water in rivers and storages

• Water extraction, usage and entitlement accounting

Integrated water resources accounting and assessment

DESCRIPTION

Water resources accounting keeps track of

opening and closing balances of the different

water stores and flows to and from these stores.

Key challenges for reliable accounting of water

resources include how to best use sparse and

partial observations and how to provide

estimates for ungauged catchments. Use of

modelling, remote sensing and other data will be

needed for inferring quantities not directly measured. The issue of multiple scales of final

reporting and intermediate accounting also needs to be addressed. There is a strong need

for an accounting tool to integrate with the national hydrological geofabric and data systems

so that annual water accounts can be produced in a timely manner. In addition, water

accounting needs to ensure that relevant information is included on environmental water.

Closing the water balance is fundamental to water resources accounting. Water balance

needs to be achieved within catchments, groundwater systems, rivers and storages, and for

the overall system. This means that the water balance needs to account for the complex

interactions between these components, and in turn avoid double counting. As many of the

water balance terms need to be inferred indirectly from limited data or no data, water

balance closure presents a significant challenge. Quantification of uncertainties is important

to understanding the accuracy of water balance estimation.

With the development of a water resources accounting system, there is the opportunity to

adopt the methods and techniques for analysing historical changes in water resources. As

water accounts will be produced overtime in the future, similar analyses can also be carried

out. The research will further identify and quantify cause and effect relationships of changes

in water resources conditions (such as the impact of land cover change, plantation, farm

dams, water management and climate change). This will allow systematic learning from past

experience, preparation for future threats, and informed decision-making. In addition, the

cause-and-effect relationships identified can be used to improve future water accounting as

many quantities need to be inferred from very limited or no data by using established

relationships.

Integrated water resources covers generic aspects of water resources accounting including

common techniques, integration and analyses. Issues and innovation needs specific to

33

groundwater, catchment water balance and water in rivers and storages are covered in more

detail under subsequent sections.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop, under the guidance of the NWC national Water Accounting Development

Committee, a national water resources accounting framework describing the

required variables, scales, prioritisation, standards.

• Decide at what spatial and temporal scales to collate data for the scales of water

account reporting.

• Develop robust techniques for data quality control and infilling data gaps (spatially

and temporally).

• Develop methods for combining point and spatial data, including the use of a range

of hydrological models.

• Develop approaches for integrated accounting of system components and their

interactions.

• Provide closure to water balance terms and quantify uncertainty.

• Reconcile water balance account with extraction, usage and entitlement accounts.

• Provide accounting information on water for the environment including key

indicators relevant for environmental assessment.

• Apply water resources accounting methods and techniques to the analysis of

historical changes in water resources. Develop key quantitative cause-and-effect

relationships of water resource changes, and produce reliable and consistent

methods for estimating the water resource impacts of key drivers such as climate,

land use and cover, plantations, farm dams, bushfires and irrigation.

• Integrate water resources accounting and assessment with the national hydrological

geofabric and data systems.

OUTCOMES

• Water management and water market informed by accurate and timely annual

water accounts.

• Water policy formulation and review informed by scientific understanding of

changes in water resource conditions and cause and effect relationships.

KEY OUTPUTS

• An integrated framework for accounting water resources at a basin scale.

• Methods for water balance closure and uncertainty estimation.

34

• A tool for national water accounting integrated with the national hydrological

geofabric and data systems.

• Methods for analysing historical changes in water resource conditions and

quantifying key cause-and-effect relationships.


• Natural resources accounting

• Surface and groundwater hydrology

• Spatial data

• Statistical analysis, modelling and reporting

• Computational modelling

• Software engineering

• Collaborators: eWater CRC, BRS, ABS, University of Melbourne


• Work under the direction of the national Water Accounting Development

Committee

• Work jointly with the Bureau and involve NWC, MDBC, states and other water

agencies

• Provide an accounting system for operation by the Bureau

• Undertake pilot studies

35

Groundwater

DESCRIPTION

Groundwater use represents approximately 18%

of water used nationally, but during dry periods, it

is the main source of water and over large areas is

the only reliable source of water. In terms of the

water balance accounting and water assessment,

groundwater is far more technically challenging

than surface water. Key issues are:

• The majority of groundwater use occurs in a small area, with little data and

knowledge of processes outside of that area;

• Groundwater processes are intrinsically linked to the hydrogeology and vary greatly

in different landscape settings;

• There is no equivalent long-term gauging data to which to compare groundwater

fluxes

• Groundwater fluxes are relatively small compared to groundwater storage

• Much of the groundwater storage is unusable for reasons of water quality or low

transmissivity

• Some groundwater resources result from paleo-recharge

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop a methodology for estimation of recharge for large areas that is

transparent, technically justified, flexible enough to be applied to different

hydrogeological settings and linked to variability of rainfall and surface water

diversions

• Develop methods for transferring recharge estimates across scales and across

regions. There are few studies of the impact of climate change upon groundwater

recharge in this country, and it is not feasible to study every aquifer in detail.

Simplified methods need to be found for projecting the change in recharge under an

altered future climate

• Develop and test a cost-effective and robust catchment-scale methodology for

determining the temporal exchanges of groundwater and surface water, which will

occur as a result of changes in groundwater pumping and climatic regimes

36

• Develop and test analytical/empirical-based methodologies for modelling of water

movement between surface water and groundwater when over-bank flooding

occurs

• Develop models to reliably estimate trends in groundwater salinity under various

imposed stresses. This will need to relate to detailed studies in a variety of

groundwater ‘types;’ such as dual-porosity limestones, inter-bedded sand/clay in

sedimentary basins, fractured rock systems, confined aquifers etc

• Detect salinity trends and develop methods to extrapolate to areas of poor or non-

existent data coverage. The capability and transferability to predict trends in areas

without instrumentation needs further research.

OUTCOMES

• Sustainable groundwater management based on reliable information about

groundwater resources and changes

KEY OUTPUTS

• A suite of methods and tools suitable for groundwater accounting and assessment of

different aquifers throughout Australia

• Understanding and quantification of changes in groundwater resources conditions

and cause-and-effect relationships


• Groundwater hydrology

• Groundwater and surface water interactions

• Spatial data

• Statistical analysis



• Collaborators: Groundwater hydrology consultants, eWater CRC, state agencies



Committee

37


agencies


Catchment Water Balance

DESCRIPTION

For accounting of surface water, reliable

estimates of inflows from ungauged catchments

are needed. Despite increased research efforts

in this area in the last decade, progress has been

slow. The use of improved regionalisation and

catchment classification methods, including

catchment similarity and ensemble modelling

approaches, can reduce uncertainty in runoff

estimates. New model structures that consider spatial variability and landscape connectivity

with integrated surface–groundwater modelling can improve estimates of runoff and other

variables (eg soil moisture, diffused groundwater recharge). The use of new data types, in

particular remote sensing, to constrain model parameterisations, can also improve runoff

estimates. For gauged streamflows, the accuracy of the gauges is often unclear. There is

also large uncertainty in the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, groundwater

recharge, catchment runoff, and changes in soil water storages that needs to be reduced by

using additional large-scale data within a suitable hydrological model.

Catchment water yields are impacted by many factors such as climate, land use and cover,

plantation and farm dams. Feedbacks between climate change and land use cover can

potentially impact on catchment water balance. The cause and effect relationships need to

be quantified through modelling and data analyses. These relationships are necessary for

improving water balance inference for ungauged catchments as well as for predicting

changes to water yields in the future under various climate and management scenarios

(Stream 4).

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop methods for estimating water balance at ungauged catchments using

improved regionalisation methods including catchment similarity and model

ensemble approaches.

• Develop and apply new model structures that consider subdaily rainfall variability,

spatial variability and landscape connectivity to improve estimates of runoff in

ungauged catchments.

• Develop methods for using new data types, in particular remote sensing, to improve

the partitioning of rainfall to ET, recharge to groundwater and runoff and their

spatial distribution for gauged catchments and to improve runoff estimation for

ungauged catchments.

38

• Improve surface and groundwater modelling in upland catchments that considers

surface landscape connectivity, groundwater connectivity and surface-groundwater

interactions.

• Develop system modelling and statistical analysis methods for quantifying impacts

on catchment water yields of climate, land use and cover, plantation, farm dams and

other drivers.

OUTCOMES

• Catchment land and water management informed by reliable accounts and

assessment of catchment water balance: rainfall, ET, net recharge to groundwater,

and importantly catchment runoff.

KEY OUTPUTS

• A suite of methods and tools suitable for catchment water balance accounting and

assessment of both gauged and ungauged catchments throughout Australia

• Understanding and quantification of changes in catchment water yields and cause

and effect relationships


• Hydrology

• Spatial modelling and remote sensing




• Collaborators: eWater CRC, State agencies, MDBC



Committee


agencies

• Provide an accounting system for operation by the Bureau


39

Water in rivers and storages

DESCRIPTION

Accounting of flows and stores in river systems

(including irrigation distribution systems) is an

essential component of water resources accounting.

The water balance in river systems is affected by

many processes: regulation on water flows and

stores, diversions, losses to floodplains, wetlands,

exchanges with groundwater, direct evaporation

from the river and from storages, extraction by

pumping and floodplain harvesting, and irrigation return flows. Many of these terms are only

partially gauged or not gauged at all, and difficult to separate. They need to be inferred from

scientific and technical understanding augmented by remote sensing observation through

models. Currently river models are typically calibrated reach by reach, which tends to

propagate errors associated with gauging and metering directly into the water balance and

introduces unspecified and poorly quantified gains and loss terms. An integrated modelling

and optimisation approach is required for consistent modelling and interpretation and for

properly quantifying uncertainties in the different observation data and water balance

terms. Irrigation distribution systems and the anabranching lower sections of many inland

rivers tend to be highly complex, with high losses through seepage and evaporation and

incomplete gauging. Water accounting for irrigation poses further challenges due to the

many levels at which metering can occur, from bulk diversion off-takes to individual on-farm

pumps and storages. With programs for improved metering and observation technology,

water accounting will become more reliable in the future. Key indicators related to water for

the environment may need to be provided in water accounts, such as statistics on wetland

water storage and use, flood, inundation and environmental flow regime.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop component models to estimate river water balance components that are

not directly measured: losses to floodplains and wetlands, groundwater exchanges,

direct open water evaporation from river and storages, un-metered extractions (eg

pumping and floodplain harvesting) and irrigation return flows. These models will

need to incorporate knowledge and data contained in the geospatial fabric

(groundwater hydrology, topography, surface water and surface–groundwater

connectivity), any ground data available, and remote sensing observations of

floodplain inundation and ET (from floodplain, wetlands and irrigated crops).

• Develop a river accounting technology (derived from river planning model

technology) that can account for the effects of regulation on water flows and stores,

that integrates direct metering and gauging with model-based estimates of terms

that are not directly measured.

40

• Develop ‘one-pass’ calibration technology that explicitly considers gauging, metering

and modelling errors and uncertainty and thereby minimises the propagation of

these errors in accounts and quantifies the uncertainties in different water balance

terms.

• Develop framework and methods for water balance accounting for irrigation regions

that considers different levels of metering and accounts for losses within the

distribution system.

• Develop methods to produce key statistics related to water for the environment.

Examples can include volumes entering, exiting and evaporating from wetlands,

occurrence and extent of floods and inundation, and statistics of environmental high

and low flows.

• Develop methods that will allow river water accounts to be used for the calibration

and initialisation of river models used in operational forecasting and long-term

prediction.

OUTCOMES

• Sustainable management of surface water resources informed by reliable accounts

and assessment of water in rivers, storages and irrigation distribution systems.

KEY OUTPUTS

• A suite of methods and tools suitable for river and storage water accounting and

assessment of river systems throughout Australia.

• Methods for estimating water balance terms from limited or no data.

• Understanding and quantification of critical uncertainties in river and storage water

accounting.


• Hydrology and water resources

• Irrigation

• Spatial modelling and remote sensing




• Collaborators: eWater CRC, State agencies, MDBC

41



Committee


agencies

Water extraction, usage and entitlement accounting

DESCRIPTION

The Bureau will be required to produce annual

national water accounts. The publication of

three national water accounts by the Australian

Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the completion of

Australian Water Resources 2005 laid the

foundations for future water accounting. A

national Water Accounting Development

Committee has been set up by the National

Water Commission to guide the development of

future national water accounts. Water management in Australia is moving to continuous

accounting of water entitlement, allocation, carrying-forward, water trade, and water use.

Registers and metering programs are becoming more comprehensive. Thus, water

accounting methods are likely to evolve over time. The methods will also need to be

different for accounting at different scales such as national, state and regional. Both

aggregation and sampling will need to be employed.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop, under the guidance of the national Water Accounting Development

Committee, a national water accounting framework – variables, scales, prioritisation,

and standards.

• Adapt financial accounting methods for water extraction, usage and entitlement

accounting.

• Develop methods for efficient data collection and collation.

• Quantify uncertainty.

• Integrate water accounting tool with the national hydrological geofabric and data

system.

OUTCOMES

• Accurate and timely annual water accounts for decision making.

• A repeatable and auditable process of accounting.

42

KEY OUTPUTS

• An annual accounting system for water extraction, usage and entitlement.

• Statistical techniques to inform the design of metering programs.

• Methods for data collection and collation.

• Methods for uncertainty estimation.


• Natural resources accounting

• Statistical design and analysis

• Hydrology

• Spatial science

• Collaborators: ABS, Bureau of Rural Sciences (BRS), University of Melbourne



Committee

• Work jointly with the Bureau, NWC, MDBC, states and other water agencies

• Provide an accounting system for operational deployment by the Bureau

43

Stream 4: Water Forecasting and Prediction

OVERALL OBJECTIVE

The Bureau has had a key role in weather forecasting and flood warning, however hydrologic

forecasting has to date been limited to flood events only. The Bureau’s new role will require

the development of tools for forecasting and predicting hydrologic variables in the short,

medium and long terms.

As well as for flood warning, continuous short-term forecasting of river flow can be used for

river operation to improve water use efficiency and environmental flow outcomes through

better release scheduling.

Medium-term forecasting (month to annual timescales) provides information required for

understanding effects of climate variation on flows and water demand, optimising water

management while managing risks, and informing water trading and water futures markets.

Long-term prediction or scenario generation (decadal timescales) assists with understanding

climate change effects and land use and land use change on water availability for the

development of policy on water supply and utilisation.

This stream will develop the science and technology required to achieve short-term,

medium-term and long-term of water forecast and prediction through research and

development investment in:

• Short-term river flow and flood inundation forecasting

• Seasonal inflow and water demand forecasting

• Long-term water resources prediction

Short-term river flow and flood inundation forecasting

DESCRIPTION

The Bureau currently provides flood warning

services to the country. An expansion to a

continuous river flow forecasting service can be

highly valuable for river operations to achieve

more efficient water use and better

environmental outcomes. A further expansion to

flood inundation forecasting is much needed for

effective flood emergency response and is also

eagerly anticipated by environmental flow managers.

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There is recognition that river flow forecasting can be significantly improved with increased

spatial data availability, better hydrological modelling capability, new model-data

assimilation methods, and more reliable weather forecasts. In particular, the Bureau is keen

to improve the utilisation of rainfall forecast, integrated with a range of related information

with different uncertainties. Rainfall radar provides much increased information on rainfall

patterns in space and time, but its full utilisation for flood forecasting is yet to be realised in

Australia. The utility of other remote sensing data such as soil moisture and ET for improving

river flow forecasting also needs to be further assessed.

Flash flood forecasting still poses a significant challenge for the forecasters, in particular for

areas not covered by rainfall radar. A related problem is river flow for ungauged catchments.

Some of the other issues include dealing with missing data during events and efficiently

combining data from different types of sensors, particularly rainfall, and model calibration

techniques.

New modelling developments will be required to extend the current flood forecasting

system into a system that is suitable for continuous streamflow forecasting and flow

forecasting in larger river systems, which require greater consideration of processes

influencing streamflow propagation (routing, storage and losses).

For developing the next generation of river flow forecasting system, grid-based hydrological

models have potential advantages in being able to better exploit spatial information in

gridded forecasting, radar and remote sensing data, but, lumped runoff models have the

advantage of parsimony and computational efficiency. Model-data assimilation technologies

for automated state updating, parameter estimation and bias correction have shown great

promise for improving forecasting skill, but challenges need to be addressed to make these

technologies sufficiently efficient and robust for operational applications. Computational

performance and forecasting skill in a parallel pseudo-operational setting will provide

objective measures by which to adopt extensions and enhancements of the existing

forecasting technology.

As the Bureau has a fully functional operational modelling system in place for flood

forecasting, R&D effort may be focused on both extending and enhancing capabilities of the

current modelling system and on developing innovative methods and techniques for the

next generation of modelling system. An evaluation framework is needed for assessing new

innovations objectively.

Flood inundation forecasting is much needed for effective flood emergency response. It is

also eagerly anticipated by environmental flow managers. The Bureau is considering

providing inundation forecasting in the future. There are a number of computer modelling

tools available for flood inundation simulation, ranging from simple one dimensional models

that can be loosely linked to flood maps, to fully or semi-two dimensional hydraulic models.

Flood maps based on a combination of digital elevation models and remote sensing and/or

aerial data on inundation provide a bench mark for hydraulic modelling in data rich

environments and a cost-effective alternative in extensive floodplains without such dense

data. Advances in airborne laser altimetry technologies allow the acquisition of accurate

digital terrain elevation models and inference of hydraulic roughness. Computational

techniques for flood inundation modelling have become more robust and efficient.

However, there are still many significant technical (and operational) challenges for flood

inundation forecasting, including the needs for parameterisation of physical properties of

river, floodplain and land surface, inundation data for model establishment, observation

networks for real-time operation, and coupling inundation modelling with hydrological

modelling.

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INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop an evaluation framework for assessing new innovations so that

improvements can be introduced in a rational way.

• Effectively utilise spatial data and ground observations (rainfall in particular) through

model-data assimilation, and develop procedures for dealing with missing data

during events.

• Develop improved model representation of sub-daily catchment runoff, soil

moisture and river routing.

• Integrate hydrological modelling with weather forecasting (rainfall in particular)

including from weather forecasters, numerical weather prediction and other sources

of information.

• Develop methods to quantify uncertainty and provide probabilistic forecast of river

flow.

• Develop methods for forecasting flash floods and for forecasting river flow in

ungauged areas.

• Enhance available tools for flood inundation modelling by coupling river flow

forecasting tools with inundation forecasting tools.

• Characterise and parameterise river and floodplain properties for inundation

modelling.

• Design complementary ground and remote inundation observation systems and

programs.

• Quantify uncertainty and provide probabilistic forecast of flood inundation.

OUTCOMES

• An improved flood warning system, leading to enhanced emergency response.

• Improved inflow forecasts for river operations, leading to efficient consumptive

water use and enhanced environmental outcomes.

• Establishment of a robust system for flood inundation warning, leading to effective

emergency response.

• Availability of critical flood inundation information for environmental flow planning

and operation to achieve desired environmental outcomes.

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KEY OUTPUTS

• Methods and tools for extending the current modelling system from flood

forecasting to continuous inflow forecasting.

• Methods and tools for enhancing forecast quality of current modelling system.

• Methods and technologies for the next generation of river flow forecasting systems.

• Modelling tools for estimating catchment water balance and for improving

hydrological representation in climate models.

• Modelling tools for flood inundation forecasting integrated with river flow

forecasting.

• Methods for river and floodplain parameterisation and for model-data assimilation.

• Design of an observation system (both ground and space based) and program for

flood inundation forecasting.

• A pilot application of flood inundation forecasting modelling.


• Hydrology

• Data assimilation and Statistical analysis

• Remote sensing

• Spatial data

• River and floodplain hydraulics

• Terrain analysis



• Collaborators: Bureau, eWater CRC, CAWCR


• Work jointly with the Bureau flood forecasting and weather forecasting sections,

national, state and regional water agencies

• Initially focus R&D effort on developing technologies to enhance the capability of the

existing system

• Design inundation forecasting as part of a larger operational system

• Build on existing floodplain modelling results and products

• Adopt a common modelling platform agreed with the Bureau and others

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Seasonal inflow and water demand forecasting

DESCRIPTION

Skilled forecast of river inflow and water demand

several months and seasons ahead can be highly

valuable for water resources management. It can

be used to produce water allocation outlooks for

water users so that they can make informed

decisions. It can provide the water market with

information to facilitate water trading and thus

increase water use efficiency. It can also provide

vital information for government to prepare for

extreme drought and other situations. Methods have been developed to forecast inflows

using El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and antecedent flows as predictors based on the

fact that the teleconnection between Australia’s hydroclimate and (ENSO) is amongst the

strongest in the world. However, this relationship is not necessarily stationary over time.

Significant research is in progress in Australia in evaluation and further development of

dynamic climate models (POAMA/ACCESS) for seasonal climate forecasting.

Dynamic climate models provide the long-term potential for improved seasonal forecasts,

because they are not impacted by climate change. However, current climate models still

have relatively low skills for forecasting variables, such as rainfall, crucial for hydrological

applications. A growing trend internationally is to use statistical models to add value to

dynamical model forecasts, by taking from the models what they do well and statistically

connect to the variables the user needs. There is a need for a flexible modelling framework

for inflow forecasting that makes the best use of both historical observations and climate

modelling results. As climate model hind-casts may not go back as far as historical

observation, statistical methods need to be developed that can efficiently use non-

concurrent data sets. They also need to be able to deal with missing observations. The

framework needs to be able to provide probabilistic forecasting of inflows at multiple sites

that preserves inter-site correlation. This is important for a whole-of-system approach to

managing large water resources systems. Additionally, seasonal forecasting of spatially

distributed runoff, soil moisture, and water demand will be useful for agricultural and water

management planning. Seasonal forecasting of flood risks will be useful for emergency

preparation. As dynamic climate models further improve their forecast skills, it may warrant

the use of dynamic hydrological models to forecast river inflows from climate forecasts. This

may involve the development of downscaling for use in driving hydrological models. An

evaluation framework is necessary for quantifying the benefit of such an approach over the

statistical approach.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Develop flexible, efficient and robust Bayesian statistical modelling methods and

tools capable of incorporating a range of predictors, such as seasonal forecasts of

climate variables based on climate modelling as well as direct observations, using

non-concurrent data and dealing with missing observations. This will allow dynamic

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climate modelling to add value to statistical modelling to get the best forecast out of

all valuable results.

• Construct and cross-validate methods for providing probabilistic forecasts of inflows

at multiple sites, preserving inter-site correlations.

• Construct and cross-validate methods for providing probabilistic forecasts of

spatially distributed runoff and soil moisture, and probabilistic forecasts of flood risk

across Australia for several months to two years ahead.

• Investigate the potential and techniques for combining dynamic climate modelling

with dynamic hydrological modelling for inflow forecasts.

• Develop methods for seasonal forecast of water demand.

• Evaluate the value of seasonal forecast for water resources management.

OUTCOMES

• Skilled forecasting of inflows, spatially distributed runoff, and water demand leading

to better water resources management.

• Better risk management for water users and agricultural industry in general.

• Better flood emergency planning.

KEY OUTPUTS

• Skilled and widely applicable multi-site inflow forecasting model.

• Spatially distributed runoff and soil moisture, flood risk and water demand

forecasting models.

• Applications of seasonal forecast for water resources management.


• Hydrology


• Seasonal climate modelling

• Irrigation science


• Collaborators: CAWCR, eWater CRC, UNSW

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• Work closely with a wide range of potential users

• Demonstrate value of seasonal forecasting of inflows and water demand with

application examples.

Long-term water resources prediction

DESCRIPTION

Water resources in Australia and many parts of the

world are generally fully developed and allocated.

Increasing demands are being put on the limited

water resources by expanding urban populations,

irrigation and industrial water use, and the formal

inclusion of environmental water allocations.

Future water availability is likely to decrease due

to threats from climate change, afforestation,

bushfire regrowth, farm dam expansion and other drivers. As water is so critical to the

welling-being of our society, economy and environment, water policy needs to be

formulated and continually reviewed to prepare for and adapt to a changing water future.

The formulation and review of water policy needs to be based on credible science and

technical understanding of our future prospects of water resources.

The Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project, currently being completed, represents

the most comprehensive study in Australia in understanding future changes and

uncertainties of water resources conditions. Climate scenarios of 2030 are constructed

based on IPCC 4AR global climate model simulations and global warming scenarios. Future

development in plantations, farm dams and groundwater development are considered.

Results from the project have highlighted that in much of the Murray-Darling Basin, there is

likely to be significant reduction in surface water and groundwater availability. However,

there is significant uncertainty in the estimation and the methods used can be improved

considerably.

While it is highly desirable to conduct similar studies for all significant regions in Australia on

a regular basis, technical and resource constraints mean that the methods and tools used for

the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project need to be adapted significantly for

wider and regular applications. In addition, there is significant scope to improve the methods

used in the project. It is also noted that much of the methods and tools to be developed for

water resources accounting and assessment are also useful for prediction. Thus, it is

anticipated that long-term prediction will be build on both the work of the Murray-Darling

Basin Sustainable Yields project and the proposed R&D on water resources accounting and

assessment.

INNOVATION REQUIRED

• Better characterise hydroclimatic variability and potential attribution of climate

change by analysing past hydroclimate using models, instrumental data and

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paleodata, and quantifying causal relationships with variables such ENSO and related

SST and atmospheric indicators, IPO, CO2, and sunspots.

• Improve projections of climate, in particular rainfall, to drive hydrological models.

This includes quantification of uncertainties in GCM projections and downscaling

methods to provide catchment scale rainfall (with methods developed and tested in

the context of hydrological modelling and water resources applications). This

research is at the interface of climate and water, and is essential to focus the

development of climate products for water resources application needs.

• Evaluate and enhance methods for constructing future climate scenarios from

climate modelling results and other information, relevant for water resources

prediction.

• Develop reliable and consistent methods for projecting changes in other key drivers

for changes in water resources, such as land use and cover, farm dams, bushfires,

irrigation.

• Develop capacity to predict the consequences of changes in rainfall distribution,

climate and CO2 concentrations for runoff generation due to the influence of land

cover on hydrology.

• Adapt methods and models developed from the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable

Yields project and those to be developed for water accounting and assessment of

surface and groundwater resources for predicting impacts on future water resources

of climate and other drivers.

• Develop a simplified approach for predicting the impact of climate change and

development on water availability and water uses across managed river systems.

This will build on the detailed Australian Hydrological Modelling Initiative (AHMI)

concept of a robust and defensible catchment yield – surface–groundwater

interaction – river system modelling approach that can be consistently applied

across jurisdiction and state boundaries.

• Quantify and reduce critical uncertainties in the prediction of long-term future water

resources.

• Develop an evaluation system for validating predictions and improving prediction

methods.

OUTCOMES

• Water policy formulation and review based on informed understanding of future

water prospects

KEY OUTPUTS

• Consistent methods and tools, that can be applied regularly and widely in Australia,

for predicting decadal water resource conditions and quantifying uncertainties

• An evaluation system for validating predictions and improving prediction methods


• Foresighting and scenario planning

• Surface water and groundwater hydrology and resources

• Climate modeling

• Statistical analysis, modelling and reporting

• Spatial data



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• Collaborators: eWater CRC, state agencies, MDBC, consultants

PATH TO IMPACT AND OPERATIONALISE


agencies

• Provide a long-term prediction system for operation by the Bureau

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Table of acronyms

ABS Australian Bureau of Standards

ACCESS The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator

AWRIS Australian Water Resources Information System

BRS Bureau of Rural Sciences

CAWCR Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation

ET Evapotranspiration

eWater CRC e Water Cooperative Research Centre

GCM Global Climate Model

HYDSYS Time series data management tool

IPO Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

MDBC Murray Darling Basin Commission

NDVI Normalised Difference Vegetation Index

NWA National Weather Association

NWC National Water Commission

NWI National Water Initiative

NWP Numerical Weather Prediction

POAMA Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia

QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control

QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

UNSW University of New South Wales

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