WATER FACT

WATER FACTAbout 70% of the earths surface is covered with water.

Ninety-seven percent of the water on the earth is salt water. Salt water is filled with salt and other minerals, and humans cannot drink this water. Although the salt can be removed, it is a difficult and expensive process.

Two percent of the water on earth is glacier ice at the North and South Poles. This ice is fresh water and could be melted; however, it is too far away from where people live to be usable.

Less than 1% of all the water on earth is fresh water that we can actually use. We use this small amount of water for drinking, transportation, heating and cooling, industry, and many other purposes.

http://www.drinktap.org/kidsdnn/Portals/5/story_of_water/html/earth.htm

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EARTH

Earth is the 3rd planet from the Sun at a distance of about 150 million kilometers (93.2 million miles). It takes 365.256 days for the Earth to travel around the Sun and 23.9345 hours for the Earth rotate a complete revolution. It has a diameter of 12,756 kilometers (7,973 miles), only a few hundred kilometers larger than that of Venus. Our atmosphere is composed of 78 percent nitrogen, 21 percent oxygen and 1 percent other constituents.

Earth is the only planet in the solar system known to harbor life. Our planet's rapid spin and molten nickel-iron core give rise to an extensive magnetic field, which, along with the atmosphere, shields us from nearly all of the harmful radiation coming from the Sun and other stars. Earth's atmosphere protects us from meteors, most of which burn up before they can strike the surface.

From our journeys into space, we have learned much about our home planet. The first American satellite, Explorer 1, discovered an intense radiation zone, now called the Van Allen radiation belts. This layer is formed from rapidly moving charged particles that are trapped by the Earth's magnetic field in a doughnut-shaped region surrounding the equator. Other findings from satellites show that our planet's magnetic field is distorted into a tear-drop shape by the solar wind. We also now know that our wispy upper atmosphere, once believed calm and uneventful, seethes with activity -- swelling by day and contracting by night. Affected by changes in solar activity, the upper atmosphere contributes to weather and climate on Earth.

Besides affecting Earth's weather, solar activity gives rise to a dramatic visual phenomenon in our atmosphere. When charged particles from the solar wind become trapped in Earth's magnetic field, they collide with air molecules above our planet's magnetic poles. These air molecules then begin to glow and are known as the auroras or the northern and southern lights.

http://www.solarviews.com/eng/earth.htm

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CLIMATE CHANGE

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Climate change

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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For current global climate change, see Global warming.

For past climate change, see paleoclimatology and geologic temperature record.

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Climate change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It can be a change in the average weather or a change in the distribution of weather events around an average (for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change usually refers to changes in modern climate. It may be qualified as anthropogenic climate change, more generally known as "global warming" or "anthropogenic global warming" (AGW).

For information on temperature measurements over various periods, and the data sources available, see temperature record. For attribution of climate change over the past century, see attribution of recent climate change.

Contents

[hide]

* 1 Terminology

* 2 Causes

o 2.1 Plate tectonics

o 2.2 Solar output

o 2.3 Orbital variations

o 2.4 Volcanism

o 2.5 Ocean variability

o 2.6 Human influences

* 3 Physical evidence for climatic change

o 3.1 Historical and archaeological evidence

o 3.2 Glaciers

o 3.3 Vegetation

o 3.4 Ice cores

o 3.5 Dendroclimatology

o 3.6 Pollen analysis

o 3.7 Insects

o 3.8 Sea level change

* 4 See also

* 5 References

* 6 Further reading

* 7 External links

Terminology

The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system when considered over periods of decades or longer, regardless of cause.[1][2] Accordingly, fluctuations on periods shorter than a few decades, such as El Nio, do not represent climate change.

The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human activity; for example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change defines climate change as "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods."[3] In the latter sense climate change is synonymous with global warming.

Causes

Factors that can shape climate are climate forcings. These include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to climate forcing because of their large mass. Therefore, the climate system can take centuries or longer to fully respond to new external forcings.

Plate tectonics

Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.[4]

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice cover.[5][6] During the Carboniferous period, about 300 to 360 million years ago, plate tectonics may have triggered large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation.[7] Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the supercontinent was conducive to the establishment of monsoons.[8]

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents or islands.

Solar output

Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of sunspots and beryllium isotopes.

The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

Three to four billion years ago the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does today. If the atmospheric composition had been the same as today, liquid water should not have existed on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth, in the Hadean[9][10] and Archean[11][9] eons, leading to what is known as the faint young sun paradox.[12] Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist[13] Over the following approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric composition changed, with the oxygenation of the atmosphere around 2.4 billion years ago being the most notable alteration. These changes in luminosity, and the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a white dwarf, will have large effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending life on Earth.

Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle[14] and longer-term modulations.[15] Solar intensity variations are considered to have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age,[16] and some of the warming observed from 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves. While most research indicates solar variability has induced a small cooling effect from 1750 to the present, a few studies point toward solar radiation increases from cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming.[17] [18]

Orbital variations

Main article: Milankovitch cycles

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little change to the area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes in the geographical and seasonal distribution. The three types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods,[19] their correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara,[19] and for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.[20]

Volcanism

Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic processes which release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.

Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century[21] (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta[22]) affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5 C (0.9 F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer.[23] Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.[24]

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. According to the US Geological Survey, however, estimates are that human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[25]

Ocean variability

Main article: Thermohaline circulation

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term fluctuations (years to a few decades) such as the El NioSouthern Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation, the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent climate variability rather than climate change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.

Human influences

Main article: Global warming

Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment. In some cases the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous (for example, the effects of irrigation on local humidity), while in other instances it is less clear. Various hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been argued for many years. Presently the scientific consensus on climate change is that human activity is very likely the cause for the rapid increase in global average temperatures over the past several decades.[26] Consequently, the debate has largely shifted onto ways to reduce further human impact and to find ways to adapt to change that has already occurred.[27]

Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture[28] and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play - both separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate, microclimate, and measures of climate variables.

Physical evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct past climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 1800s. For earlier periods, most of the evidence is indirectclimatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies, indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores,[29] dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial geology.

Historical and archaeological evidence

Main article: Historical impacts of climate change

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in settlement and agricultural patterns.[30] Archaeological evidence, oral history and historical documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change effects have been linked to the collapse of various civilisations.[31]

Glaciers

Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000 years

Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change,[32] advancing when climate cools (for example, during the period known as the Little Ice Age) and retreating when climate warms. Glaciers grow and shrink, both contributing to natural variability and amplifying externally forced changes. A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s. Initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps, this compilation has resulted in a detailed inventory of more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2 and, in preliminary estimates, for the recording of the remaining ice cover estimated to be around 445,000 km2. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present.[33] Mass balance data indicate 17 consecutive years of negative glacier mass balance.

Percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps in the last 80 years

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years.[34] Shaped by orbital variations, responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, DansgaardOeschger events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the forcing effect of orbital changes.

Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material - including organic matter that may be accurately dated - recording the periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit may also be precisely ascertained.

Vegetation

A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change in the climate; this much is obvious. In any given scenario, a mild change in climate may result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the subsequent sequestration of airborne CO2. Larger, faster or more radical changes, however, may well[weasel words] result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in certain circumstances.[35]

Ice cores

Analysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere from the distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO2 over many millennia, and continues to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern atmospheric conditions.

Dendroclimatology

Dendroclimatology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine past climate variations. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered growing period, whilst thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less-than-ideal growing conditions.

Pollen analysis

Palynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including pollen. Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which vary under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different sedimentation levels in lakes, bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities; which are dependent on climate conditions.[36][37]

Insects

Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly over the millennia, knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.[38]

Sea level change

Main article: Current sea level rise

Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated using tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term average. More recently, altimeter measurements in combination with accurately determined satellite orbits have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.[39]

See also

General

* Paleoclimatology and links therein

* Atmospheric physics

* Geologic time scale

* Glossary of climate change

* List of climate change topics

Climate of the deep past

* Faint young sun paradox

* Oxygen catastrophe

* Snowball Earth

Climate of the last 500 million years

* Ice ages

* PaleoceneEocene Thermal Maximum

* PermoCarboniferous Glaciation

Search Wikinews Wikinews has news related to:

Climate change

Environment portal

Energy portal

Climate of recent glaciations

* Bond event

* Dansgaard-Oeschger event

* Younger Dryas

Recent climate

* Anthropocene

* Global warming

* Hardiness Zone Migration

* Holocene Climatic Optimum

* Little Ice Age

* Medieval Warm Period

* Temperature record of the past 1000 years

* Year Without a Summer

References

1. ^ http://nsidc.org/arcticmet/glossary/climate_change.html

2. ^ http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/518.htm

3. ^ http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1349.php

4. ^ Forest, C. E.; Wolfe, J. A.; Molnar, P.; Emanuel, K. A. (1999). "Paleoaltimetry incorporating atmospheric physics and botanical estimates of paleoclimate". Geological Society of America Bulletin 111: 497. doi:10.1130/0016-7606(1999)1112.3.CO;2. edit

5. ^ "Panama: Isthmus that Changed the World". NASA Earth Observatory. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=16401. Retrieved 2008-07-01.

6. ^ Gerald H., Haug (2004-03-22). "How the Isthmus of Panama Put Ice in the Arctic". WHOI: Oceanus. http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewArticle.do?id=2508. Retrieved 2009-07-21.

7. ^ Peter Bruckschen, Susanne Oesmanna, Jn Veizer (1999-09-30). "Isotope stratigraphy of the European Carboniferous: proxy signals for ocean chemistry, climate and tectonics". Chemical Geology 161 (1-3): 127. doi:10.1016/S0009-2541(99)00084-4. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V5Y-3XNK494-8&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=7db7616e9dc94e6ed49a817195926851.

8. ^ Judith T. Parrish (1993). "Climate of the Supercontinent Pangea". Chemical Geology 101 (2): 215233. doi:10.2307/30081148 (inactive 2009-09-18). http://www.jstor.org/pss/30081148. Retrieved 2009-07-21.

9. ^ a b Marty, B. (2006). "Water in the Early Earth". Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry 62: 421. doi:10.2138/rmg.2006.62.18.

10. ^ Watson, Eb; Harrison, Tm (May 2005). "Zircon thermometer reveals minimum melting conditions on earliest Earth.". Science (New York, N.Y.) 308 (5723): 8414. doi:10.1126/science.1110873. ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 15879213.

11. ^ Hagemann, Steffen G.; Gebre-Mariam, Musie; Groves, David I. (1994). "Surface-water influx in shallow-level Archean lode-gold deposits in Western, Australia". Geology 22: 1067. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1994)0222.3.CO;2.

12. ^ Sagan, C.; G. Mullen (1972). Earth and Mars: Evolution of Atmospheres and Surface Temperatures. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/177/4043/52?ck=nck.

13. ^ Sagan, C.; Chyba, C (1997). "The Early Faint Sun Paradox: Organic Shielding of Ultraviolet-Labile Greenhouse Gases". Science 276 (5316): 1217. doi:10.1126/science.276.5316.1217. PMID 11536805.

14. ^ Willson, Richard C.; Hugh S. Hudson (1991-05-02). "The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle". Nature 351: 4244. doi:10.1038/351042a0. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v351/n6321/abs/351042a0.html.

15. ^ Willson, Richard C.; Alexander V. Mordvinov (2003). "Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 2123". Geophysical Review Letters 30 (5): 1199. doi:10.1029/2002GL016038. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2003/2002GL016038.shtml. Retrieved 2009-07-21.

16. ^ Solar Influences on Global Change, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., p. 36, 1994.

17. ^ "NASA Study Finds Increasing Solar Trend That Can Change Climate". 2003. http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0313irradiance.html.

18. ^ "Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds". Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL038429.shtml.

19. ^ a b "Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation". University of Montana. http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/milankov.htm. Retrieved 2009-04-02.

20. ^ Gale, Andrew S. (1989). "A Milankovitch scale for Cenomanian time". Terra Nova 1: 420. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3121.1989.tb00403.x.

21. ^ Diggles, Michael (28 February 2005). "The Cataclysmic 1991 Eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines". U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 113-97. United States Geological Survey. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs113-97/. Retrieved 2009-10-08.

22. ^ Adams, Nancy K.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Fagents, Sarah A.; Hildreth, Wes (2006). "The transition from explosive to effusive eruptive regime: The example of the 1912 Novarupta eruption, Alaska". Geological Society of America Bulletin 118: 620. doi:10.1130/B25768.1.

23. ^ Oppenheimer, Clive (2003). "Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815". Progress in Physical Geography 27: 230. doi:10.1191/0309133303pp379ra.

24. ^ Wignall, P (2001). "Large igneous provinces and mass extinctions". Earth-Science Reviews 53: 1. doi:10.1016/S0012-8252(00)00037-4.

25. ^ "Volcanic Gases and Their Effects". U.S. Department of the Interior. 2006-01-10. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/Hazards/What/VolGas/volgas.html. Retrieved 2008-01-21.

26. ^ IPCC. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (summary for policy makers), IPCC.

27. ^ See for example emissions trading, cap and share, personal carbon trading, UNFCCC

28. ^ Steinfeld, H.; P. Gerber, T. Wassenaar, V. Castel, M. Rosales, C. de Haan (2006). Livestock's long shadow. http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a0701e/a0701e00.HTM.

29. ^ Petit RA, Humberto Ruiloba M, Bressani R, J.-M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, M. Davis et al. (1999-06-03). "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica". Nature 399 (1): 429436. doi:10.1038/20859. PMID 20859. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v399/n6735/full/399429a0.html. Retrieved 2008-01-22.

30. ^ Demenocal, P. B. (2001). "Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene". Science 292: 667. doi:10.1126/science.1059827. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~peter/Resources/Publications/deMenocal.2001.pdf. edit

31. ^ Demenocal, P. B. (2001). "Cultural Responses to Climate Change During the Late Holocene". Science 292: 667. doi:10.1126/science.1059827. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~peter/Resources/Publications/deMenocal.2001.pdf. edit

32. ^ Seiz, G.; N. Foppa (2007) The activities of the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) . (Report). Retrieved on 2009-06-21.

33. ^ Zemp, M.; I.Roer, A.Kb, M.Hoelzle, F.Paul, W. Haeberli (2008) United Nations Environment Programme - Global Glacier Changes: facts and figures . (Report). Retrieved on 2009-06-21.

34. ^ "International Stratigraphic Chart" (PDF). International Commission on Stratigraphy. 2008. http://www.stratigraphy.org/upload/ISChart2008.pdf. Retrieved 2009-07-22.

35. ^ Bachelet, D; R.Neilson,J.M.Lenihan,R.J.Drapek (2001). "Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States" (PDF). Ecosystems 4: 164185. doi:10.1007/s100210010002-7 (inactive 2009-09-18). http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/forests/Ecosystems2%20Bachelet.pdf. Retrieved 2009-02-1-10.

36. ^ Langdon, PG, , Lomas-Clarke SH (August 2004). "Reconstructing climate and environmental change in northern England through chironomid and pollen analyses: evidence from Talkin Tarn, Cumbria". Journal of Paleolimnology 32 (2): 197213. doi:10.1023/B:JOPL.0000029433.85764.a5. http://www.springerlink.com/content/t7m324u675701133/. Retrieved 2008-01-28.

37. ^ Birks, HH (March 2003). "The importance of plant macrofossils in the reconstruction of Lateglacial vegetation and climate: examples from Scotland, western Norway, and Minnesota, USA". Quarternary Science Reviews 22 (5-7): 453473. doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(02)00248-2. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBC-47YH3W8-2/2/fde5760538b5b3adb92d8564ea968b9a. Retrieved 2008-01-28.

38. ^ Coope, G.R.; Lemdahl, G.; Lowe, J.J.; Walkling, A. (1999-05-04). "Temperature gradients in northern Europe during the last glacialHolocene transition(149 14 C kyr BP) interpreted from coleopteran assemblages". Journal of Quaternary Science (John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.) 13 (5): 419433. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1417(1998090)13:53.0.CO;2-D. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/61001707/ABSTRACT. Retrieved 2008-02-18.

39. ^ "Sea Level Change". University of Colorado at Boulder. http://sealevel.colorado.edu/documents.php. Retrieved 2009-07-21.

Further reading

* Emanuel K (August 2005). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years" (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 6868. doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221. ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf.

* IPCC. (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (summary for policy makers), IPCC.

* Edwards, Paul Geoffrey; Miller, Clark A. (2001). Changing the atmosphere: expert knowledge and environmental governance. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. ISBN 0-262-63219-5.

* Ruddiman, W. F. (2003). "The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago". Climate Change 61 (3): 261293. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004577.17928.fa.

* William F. Ruddiman (2005). Plows, plagues, and petroleum: how humans took control of climate. Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-13398-0.

* Ruddiman, W. F., Vavrus, S. J. and Kutzbach, J. E. (2005). "A test of the overdue-glaciation hypothesis". Quaternary Science Review 24 (11).

* Schmidt, G. A., Shindel, D. T. and Harder, S. (2004). "A note of the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and insolation". Geophys. Res. Lett. 31: L23206. doi:10.1029/2004GL021083. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2004GL021083.shtml.

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v d e

Global warming and climate change

[show]

Temperatures

Instrumental record Satellite record Past 1,000 years Since 1880 Geologic record Historical climatology Paleoclimatology

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Causes

Anthropogenic

Attribution of recent climate change Aviation Biofuel Carbon dioxide Fossil fuel Global dimming Global warming potential Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases Land use and forestry Radiative forcing Urban heat island

Natural

Albedo Bond events Cloud forcing Feedbacks Glaciation Global cooling Ocean variability (AMO ENSO IOD PDO) Orbital variations Orbital forcing Solar variation Volcanism

Models

Global climate model

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History

History of climate change science Svante Arrhenius Charles David Keeling

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Opinion and controversy

Scientific opinion on climate change Scientists opposing the mainstream assessment

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Politics

Politics

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC / FCCC) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate change denial

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--------------------------------------------------

LA NINA/ELNINO

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El Nio-Southern Oscillation

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(Redirected from El Nio)

Jump to: navigation, search

For other uses, see El Nio (disambiguation).

The 1997 El Nio observed by TOPEX/Poseidon. The white areas off the tropical coasts of South and North America indicate the pool of warm water.[1]

El Nio-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean on average every five years, but over a period which varies from three to seven years, and is therefore, widely and significantly, known as "quasi-periodic." ENSO is best-known for its association with floods, droughts and other weather disturbances in many regions of the world, which vary with each event. Developing countries dependent upon agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected.

ENSO is composed of an oceanic component, called El Nio (or La Nia, depending on its phase), which is characterized by warming or cooling of surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and an atmospheric component, the Southern Oscillation, which is characterized by changes in surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The two components are coupled: when the warm oceanic phase (known as El Nio) is in effect, surface pressures in the western Pacific are high, and when the cold phase is in effect (La Nia), surface pressures in the western Pacific are low.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

In popular usage, El Nio-Southern Oscillation is often called just "El Nio". El Nio is Spanish for "the boy" and refers to the Christ child, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed around Christmas.[4] "La Nia" is Spanish for "the girl."

Contents

[hide]

* 1 Definition

* 2 Early stages and characteristics of El Nio

* 3 Southern Oscillation

o 3.1 Walker circulation

* 4 Effects of ENSO's warm phase (El Nio)

o 4.1 South America

o 4.2 North America

o 4.3 Tropical cyclones

o 4.4 Elsewhere

* 5 Effects of ENSO's cool phase (La Nia)

o 5.1 North America

o 5.2 Asia

o 5.3 Recent occurrences

* 6 Remote influence on tropical Atlantic Ocean

* 7 ENSO and global warming

* 8 El Nio "Modoki" and Central-Pacific El Nio

* 9 Cultural history and pre-historic information

* 10 See also

* 11 References

* 12 Further reading

* 13 External links

[edit] Definition

For other uses, see El Nio (disambiguation).

El Nio is defined by prolonged differences in Pacific-Ocean surface temperatures when compared with the average value. The accepted definition is a warming or cooling of at least 0.5C (0.9F) averaged over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. When this happens for less than nine months, it is classified as El Nio or La Nia conditions; if the anomaly persists for five months or longer, it is called an El Nio or La Nia "episode."[5] Typically, this happens at irregular intervals of 27 years and lasts nine months to two years.[6]

For other uses, see El Nio (disambiguation).

The first signs of an El Nio are:

1. Rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia

2. Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean

3. Trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east

4. Warm air rises near Peru, causing rain in the northern Peruvian deserts

5. Warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific. It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.

El Nio's warm rush of nutrient-rich tropical water, heated by its eastward passage in the Equatorial Current, replaces the cold, nutrient-rich surface water of the Humboldt Current. When El Nio conditions last for many months, extensive ocean warming occurs and its economic impact to local fishing for an international market can be serious. [7]

For other uses, see El Nio (disambiguation).

[edit] Early stages and characteristics of El Nio

5-day running mean of MJO. Note how it moves eastward with time.

Although its causes are still being investigated, El Nio events begin when trade winds, part of the Walker circulation, falter for many months. A series of Kelvin wavesrelatively warm subsurface waves of water a few centimetres high and hundreds of kilometres widecross the Pacific along the equator and create a pool of warm water near South America, where ocean temperatures are normally cold due to upwelling. The Pacific Ocean is a heat reservoir that drives global wind patterns, and the resulting change in its temperature alters weather on a global scale.[8] Rainfall shifts from the western Pacific toward the Americas, while Indonesia and India become drier.[9]

Jacob Bjerknes in 1969 helped toward an understanding of ENSO, by suggesting that an anomalously warm spot in the eastern Pacific can weaken the east-west temperature difference, disrupting trade winds that push warm water to the west. The result is increasingly warm water toward the east.[10] Several mechanisms have been proposed through which warmth builds up in equatorial Pacific surface waters, and is then dispersed to lower depths by an El Nio event.[11] The resulting cooler area then has to "recharge" warmth for several years before another event can take place.[12]

While not a direct cause of El Nio, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, propagates rainfall anomalies eastward around the global tropics in a cycle of 3060 days, and may influence the speed of development and intensity of El Nio and La Nia in several ways.[13] For example, westerly flows between MJO-induced areas of low pressure may cause cyclonic circulations north and south of the equator. When the circulations intensify, the westerly winds within the equatorial Pacific can further increase and shift eastward, playing a role in El Nio development.[14] Madden-Julian activity can also produce eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which may in turn be influenced by a developing El Nio, leading to a positive feedback loop.[15]

[edit] Southern Oscillation

Normal Pacific pattern. Equatorial winds gather warm water pool toward west. Cold water upwells along South American coast. (NOAA / PMEL / TAO)

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Nio. It is an oscillation in air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.[16] El Nio episodes are associated with negative values of the SOI, meaning that the pressure at Tahiti is relatively low compared to Darwin.

Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in part because deep convection over the warm water acts to transport air. El Nio episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This results in a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia.

[edit] Walker circulation

El Nio Conditions. Warm water pool approaches South American coast. Absence of cold upwelling increases warming.

La Nia Conditions. Warm water is further west than usual.

During non-El Nio conditions, the Walker circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade winds which move water and air warmed by the sun towards the west. This also creates ocean upwelling off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and brings nutrient-rich cold water to the surface, increasing fishing stocks. The western side of the equatorial Pacific is characterized by warm, wet low pressure weather as the collected moisture is dumped in the form of typhoons and thunderstorms. The ocean is some 60 centimetres (24 in) higher in the western Pacific as the result of this motion.[17][18][19][20]

[edit] Effects of ENSO's warm phase (El Nio)

[edit] South America

Because El Nio's warm pool feeds thunderstorms above, it creates increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The effects of El Nio in South America are direct and stronger than in North America. An El Nio is associated with warm and very wet summers (December-February) along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme. The effects during the months of February, March and April may become critical. Along the west coast of South America, El Nio reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that sustains large fish populations, which in turn sustain abundant sea birds, whose droppings support the fertilizer industry. This leads to fish kills offshore Peru.[7]

The local fishing industry along the affected coastline can suffer during long-lasting El Nio events. The world's largest fishery collapsed due to overfishing during the 1972 El Nio Peruvian anchoveta reduction. During the 1982-83 event, jack mackerel and anchoveta populations were reduced, scallops increased in warmer water, but hake followed cooler water down the continental slope, while shrimp and sardines moved southward so some catches decreased while others increased.[21] Horse mackerel have increased in the region during warm events. Shifting locations and types of fish due to changing conditions provide challenges for fishing industries. Peruvian sardines have moved during El Nio events to Chilean areas. Other conditions provide further complications, such as the government of Chile in 1991 creating restrictions on the fishing areas for self-employed fishermen and industrial fleets.

The ENSO variability may contribute to the great success of small fast-growing species along the Peruvian coast, as periods of low population removes predators in the area. Similar effects benefit migratory birds which travel each spring from predator-rich tropical areas to distant winter-stressed nesting areas. There is some evidence that El Nio activity is correlated with incidence of red tides off the Pacific coast of California[citation needed].

Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than normal conditions but mainly during the spring and early summer. Central Chile receives a mild winter with large rainfall, and the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano is sometimes exposed to unusual winter snowfall events. Drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of the Amazon River Basin, Colombia and Central America.

[edit] North America

Regional impacts of warm ENSO episodes (El Nio).

See also: Effects of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation in the United States

In North America, El Nio creates warmer-than-average winters in the upper Midwest states and the Northwest, thus reduced snowfall than average during winter. Meanwhile, central and southern California, northwest Mexico and the southwestern U.S. become significantly wetter while the northern Gulf of Mexico states and Southeast states (including Tidewater and northeast Mexico) are wetter and cooler than average during the El Nio phase of the oscillation.[22][23] Summer is wetter in the intermountain regions of the U.S. The Pacific Northwest states, on the other hand, tend to experience dry, mild but foggy winters and warm, sunny and early springs.

In Canada, both warmer and drier winters (due to forcing of the Polar Jet further north) occur, although relatively little variation is seen in the Maritime Provinces. The following summer is less stormy and warmer over the middle of the country. It is believed that the ice-storm in January 1998, which devastated parts of Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec, may have been caused or at least accentuated by El Nio's warming effects.[24] El Nio also warmed up weather in Vancouver for the 2010 Winter Olympics, such that the area experienced subtropical-like weather during the games.[25]

El Nio is also associated with increased wave-caused coastal erosion along the United States Pacific Coast.

[edit] Tropical cyclones

Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move poleward past the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the Westerlies.[26] When the subtropical ridge position shifts due to El Nio, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Areas west of Japan and Korea tend to experience much fewer September-November tropical cyclone impacts during El Nio and neutral years. During El Nio years, the break in the subtropical ridge tends to lie near 130E which would favor the Japanese archipelago.[27] During El Nio years, Guam's chance of a tropical cyclone impact is one-third of the long term average.[28] The tropical Atlantic ocean experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical wind shear across the region during El Nio years.[29]

[edit] Elsewhere

In Africa, East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile basin experiences, in the long rains from March to May, wetter than normal conditions. There also are drier than normal conditions from December to February in south-central Africa, mainly in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana. Direct effects of El Nio resulting in drier conditions occur in parts of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia, increasing bush fires and worsening haze and decreasing air quality dramatically. Drier than normal conditions are also generally observed in Queensland, inland Victoria, inland New South Wales and eastern Tasmania from June to August. West of the Antarctic Peninsula, the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Sea sectors have more sea ice during El Nio. The latter two and the Weddell Sea also become warmer and have higher atmospheric pressure.

El Nio's effects on Europe are not entirely clear, but certainly it is not nearly as affected as at least large parts of other continents. There is some evidence that an El Nio may cause a wetter, cloudier winter in Northern Europe and a milder, drier winter in the Mediterranean Sea region. The El Nio winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in the UK and Western Europe, and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season.[30]

Most recently, Singapore experienced the driest February in 2010 since records begins in 1869. With only 6.3 millimetres of rain fell in the month and temperatures hitting as high as 35 degrees Celsius on the 26th February. 1968 and 2005 had the next driest Februaries when 8.4 mm of rain fell.[31]

[edit] Effects of ENSO's cool phase (La Nia)

Sea surface skin temperature anomalies in November 2007 showing La Nia conditions

La Nia is the name for the cold phase of ENSO, during which the cold pool in the eastern Pacific intensifies and the trade winds strengthen. The name La Nia originates from Spanish, meaning "the girl", analogous to El Nio meaning "the boy". It has also in the past been called anti-El Nio, and El Viejo (meaning "the old man").[32]

[edit] North America

Regional impacts of La Nia.

La Nia causes mostly the opposite effects of El Nio. Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is generally enhanced during La Nia. La Nia causes increased rainfall across the United States' Midwest. Other potential impacts include above average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and in southern and eastern regions of the Pacific Northwest. Below-average precipitation is expected across the southern tier, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states.[33]

In Canada, La Nia will generally cause a cooler, snowier winter, such as the near record-breaking amounts of snow recorded in the La Nia winter of 2007/2008 in Eastern Canada.[34]

[edit] Asia

During La Nia years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position, shifts westward across the western Pacific ocean, which increases the landfall threat to China.[27] In March 2008, La Nia caused a drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia by an amount of 2C. It also caused heavy rains over Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia.[35]

[edit] Recent occurrences

There was a strong La Nia episode during 1988-1989. La Nia also formed in 1995, from 19982000, and a minor one from 2000-2001. Recently, an occurrence of El Nio started in September 2006[36] and lasted until early 2007.[37] From June 2007 on, data indicated a moderate La Nia event, which strengthened in early 2008 and weakened by early 2009; the 2007-2008 La Nia event was the strongest since the 1988-1989 event. According to NOAA, El Nio conditions have been in place in the equatorial Pacific Ocean since June 2009, peaking in January-February. Positive SST anomalies are expected to last at least through the North American Spring as this El Nio slowly weakens.[38]

[edit] Remote influence on tropical Atlantic Ocean

A study of climate records has shown that El Nio events in the equatorial Pacific are generally associated with a warm tropical North Atlantic in the following spring and summer.[39] About half of El Nio events persist sufficiently into the spring months for the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) to become unusually large in summer.[40] Occasionally, El Nio's effect on the Atlantic Walker circulation over South America strengthens the easterly trade winds in the western equatorial Atlantic region. As a result, an unusual cooling may occur in the eastern equatorial Atlantic in spring and summer following El Nio peaks in winter.[41] Cases of El Nio-type events in both oceans simultaneously have been linked to severe famines related to the extended failure of monsoon rains.[42]

[edit] ENSO and global warming

It is well-known by now that during the last several decades the number of El Nio events increased, and the number of La Nia events decreased[43]. The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that phenomenon, or the result of global climate changes towards global warming.

The studies of historical data show that the recent El Nio variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results is that even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend[44], the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years[45].

It is not certain what exact changes will happen to ENSO in the future: different models make different predictions (cf.[46]) It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Nio events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer as well), El Nio will become weaker than it was[47]. It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other[48]. More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question, but the current results do not completely exclude the possibility of dramatic changes.

[edit] El Nio "Modoki" and Central-Pacific El Nio

Map showing Nino3.4 and other index regions

The traditional Nio, also called Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nio,[49] involves temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific. However, in the last two decades non-traditional El Nios were observed, in which the usual place of the temperature anomaly is not affected, but an anomaly arises in the central Pacific.[50] The phenomenon is called Central Pacific (CP) El Nio,[49] "dateline" El Nio (because the anomaly arises near the dateline), or El Nio "Modoki" (Modoki is Japanese for "similar, but different").[51]

The effects of the CP El Nio are different from those of the traditional EP El Nio - e.g., the new El Nio leads to more hurricanes more frequently making landfall in the Atlantic.[52]

The recent discovery of El Nio Modoki has some scientists believing it to be linked to Global Warming.[53] However, Satellite data only goes back to 1979. More research must be done to find the correlation and study past El Nino episodes.

The first recorded El Nio that originated in the central Pacific and moved towards the east was in 1986.[54]

[edit] Cultural history and pre-historic information

Average equatorial Pacific temperatures

ENSO conditions have occurred at two- to seven year intervals for at least the past 300 years, but most of them have been weak. There is also evidence for strong El Nio events during the early Holocene epoch 10,000 years ago.[55]

El Nio affected pre-Columbian Incas [56] and may have led to the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures.[57] A recent study suggests that a strong El-Nio effect between 1789-93 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution.[58] The extreme weather produced by El Nio in 187677 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century.[59]

An early recorded mention of the term "El Nio" to refer to climate occurs in 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrillo told the Geographical society congress in Lima that Peruvian sailors named the warm northerly current "El Nio" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. The phenomenon had long been of interest because of its effects on the guano industry and other enterprises that depend on biological productivity of the sea.

Charles Todd, in 1893, suggested that droughts in India and Australia tended to occur at the same time; Norman Lockyer noted the same in 1904. An El Nio connection with flooding was reported in 1895 by Pezet and Eguiguren. In 1924 Gilbert Walker (for whom the Walker circulation is named) coined the term "Southern Oscillation".

The major 1982-83 El Nio lead to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period from 1990-1994 was unusual in that El Nios have rarely occurred in such rapid succession.[60] An especially intense El Nio event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the worlds reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25C associated with El Nio events.[61] Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered severe bleaching.[62]

Major ENSO events were recorded in the years 1790-93, 1828, 187678, 1891, 192526, 197273, 198283, and 199798.[42]

[edit] See also

latest enso updates & predictions:

* http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html

* Indian Ocean Dipole

* Pacific Decadal Oscillation

For other uses, see El Nio (disambiguation).

For other uses, see El Nio (disambiguation).

[edit] References

1. ^ "Independent NASA Satellite Measurements Confirm El Nio is Back and Strong". NASA/JPL. http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/releases/97/elninoup.html.

2. ^ Climate Prediction Center (2005-12-19). "Frequently Asked Questions about El Nio and La Nia". National Centers for Environmental Prediction. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#DIFFER. Retrieved 2009-07-17.

3. ^ K.E. Trenberth, P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu , D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. Soden and P. Zhai. "Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change". in Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge,UK: Cambridge University Press. pp. 235336. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3.html.

4. ^ "El Nio Information". California Department of Fish and Game, Marine Region. http://www.dfg.ca.gov/marine/elnino.asp.

5. ^ National Climatic Data Center (June 2009). "El Nio / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) June 2009". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/enso/?year=2009&month=6&submitted=true. Retrieved 2009-07-26.

6. ^ Climate Prediction Center (2005-12-19). "ENSO FAQ: How often do El Nio and La Nia typically occur?". National Centers for Environmental Prediction. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml#HOWOFTEN. Retrieved 2009-07-26.

7. ^ a b WW2010 (1998-04-28). "El Nio". University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/eln/home.rxml. Retrieved 2009-07-17.

8. ^ Stewart, Robert (2009-01-06). "El Nio and Tropical Heat". Our Ocean Planet: Oceanography in the 21st Century. Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University. http://oceanworld.tamu.edu/resources/oceanography-book/heatbudgets.htm. Retrieved 2009-07-25.

9. ^ Dr. Tony Phillips (2002-03-05). "A Curious Pacific Wave". National Aeronautics and Space Administration. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/05mar_kelvinwave.htm. Retrieved 2009-07-24.

10. ^ Nova (1998). "1969". Public Broadcasting Service. http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/elnino/reach/1969.html. Retrieved 2009-07-24.

11. ^ De-Zheng Sun (2007). Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences: 29 The Role of El NioSouthern Oscillation in Regulating its Background State. Springer. doi:10.1007/978-0-387-34918-3. ISBN 978-0-387-34917-6. http://www.springerlink.com/content/r48078945n5w086v/. Retrieved 2009-07-24.

12. ^ Soon-Il An and In-Sik Kang (2000). "A Further Investigation of the Recharge Oscillator Paradigm for ENSO Using a Simple Coupled Model with the Zonal Mean and Eddy Separated". Journal of Climate 13 (11): 19871993. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)0132.0.CO;2. http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0442(2000)013%3C1987%3AAFIOTR%3E2.0.CO%3B2. Retrieved 2009-07-24.

13. ^ Jon Gottschalck and Wayne Higgins (2008-02-16). "Madden Julian Oscillation Impacts". Climate Prediction Center. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/MJO_1page_factsheet.pdf. Retrieved 2009-07-24.

14. ^ Air-Sea Interaction & Climate (2005-09-06). "El Nio Watch from Space". Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology. http://airsea-www.jpl.nasa.gov/ENSO/welcome.html. Retrieved 2009-07-17.

15. ^ Eisenman, Ian; Yu, Lisan; Tziperman, Eli (2005). "Westerly Wind Bursts: ENSOs Tail Rather than the Dog?". Journal of Climate 18 (24): 52245238. doi:10.1175/JCLI3588.1.

16. ^ "Climate glossary - Southern Oscilliation Index (SOI)". Bureau of Meteorology (Australia). 2002-04-03. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml. Retrieved 2009-12-31.

17. ^ Pidwirny, Michael (2006-02-02). "Chapter 7: Introduction to the Atmosphere". Fundamentals of Physical Geography. physicalgeography.net. http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7z.html. Retrieved 2006-12-30.

18. ^ "Envisat watches for La Nia". BNSC. 2006-03-03. http://www.bnsc.gov.uk/content.aspx?nid=5989. Retrieved 2007-07-26.

19. ^ "The Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array: Gathering Data to Predict El Nio". Celebrating 200 Years. NOAA. 2007-01-08. http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/datasets/tropical/welcome.html. Retrieved 2007-07-26.

20. ^ "Ocean Surface Topography". Oceanography 101. JPL. 2006-07-05. http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/presentations/oceanography-101/ocean101-slide14.html. Retrieved 2007-07-26. "Annual Sea Level Data Summary Report July 2005 - June 2006" (PDF). The Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project. Bureau of Meteorology. http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDO60202/IDO60202.2006.pdf. Retrieved 2007-07-26.

21. ^ Pearcy, W. G.; Schoener, A. (1987). "Changes in the marine biota coincident with the 1982-1983 El Nio in the northeastern subarctic Pacific Ocean". Journal of Geophysical Research 92 (C13): 1441714428. doi:10.1029/JC092iC13p14417. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1987/JC092iC13p14417.shtml.

22. ^ Climate Prediction Center. Average October-December (3-month) Temperature Rankings During ENSO Events. Retrieved on 2008-04-16.

23. ^ Climate Prediction Center. Average December-February (3-month) Temperature Rankings During ENSO Events. Retrieved on 2008-04-16.

24. ^ http://www.davidsuzuki.org/Climate_Change/Impacts/Extreme_Weather/El_Nino.asp

25. ^ http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/02/100212-vancouver-2010-warmest-winter-olympics/

26. ^ Joint Typhoon Warning Center (2006). 3.3 JTWC Forecasting Philosophies. United States Navy. Retrieved on 2007-02-11.

27. ^ a b M. C. Wu, W. L. Chang, and W. M. Leung (2003). Impacts of El Nio-Southern Oscillation Events on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Activity in the Western North Pacific. Journal of Climate: pp. 14191428. Retrieved on 2007-02-11.

28. ^ Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center. Pacific ENSO Update: 4th Quarter, 2006. Vol. 12 No. 4. Retrieved on 2008-03-19.

29. ^ Edward N. Rappaport (September 1999). "Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1997". Monthly Weather Review 127: 2012. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1997.pdf. Retrieved 2009-07-18.

30. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6185345.stm

31. ^ http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1040778/1/.html

32. ^ Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (2008-03-24). "What is La Nia?". Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html. Retrieved 2009-07-17.

33. ^ "ENSO Diagnostic Discussion". Climate Prediction Center. 2008-06-05. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html.

34. ^ http://www.ec.gc.ca/doc/smc-msc/2008/s3_eng.html

35. ^ Hong, Lynda (2008-03-13). "Recent heavy rain not caused by global warming". Channel NewsAsia. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/334735/1/.html. Retrieved 2008-06-22.

36. ^ Pastor, Rene (2006-09-14). "El Nio climate pattern forms in Pacific Ocean". USA Today. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2006-09-13-el-nino_x.htm.

37. ^ Borenstein, Seth (2007-02-28). "There Goes El Nio, Here Comes La Nia". CBS News. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/02/28/tech/main2523483.shtml.

38. ^ http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

39. ^ David B. Enfield and Dennis A. Mayer (1997). "Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Nio-Southern Oscillation". Journal of Geophysical Research 102 (C1): 929945. doi:10.1029/96JC03296. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1997/96JC03296.shtml. Retrieved 2009-11-29.

40. ^ Sang-Ki Lee, Chunzai Wang and David B. Enfield (2008). "Why do some El Nios have no impact on tropical North Atlantic SST?". Geophysical Research Letters 35 (L16705): L16705. doi:10.1029/2008GL034734. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2008/2008GL034734.shtml. Retrieved 2009-11-29.

41. ^ M. Latif and A. Grtzner (2000). "The equatorial Atlantic oscillation and its response to ENSO". Climate Dynamics 16 (2-3): 213218. doi:10.1007/s003820050014. http://www.springerlink.com/content/1hjeatc9jjlb0lh2/?p=038dacb0cb4140679f406a9ebed3304a&pi=0. Retrieved 2009-11-29.

42. ^ a b Davis, Mike (2001). Late Victorian Holocausts: El Nio Famines and the Making of the Third World. London: Verso. pp. 271. ISBN 1859847390.

43. ^ Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hoar, Timothy J. (January 1996). "The 1990-1995 El Nio-Southern Oscillation event: Longest on record". Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1): 5760. doi:10.1029/95GL03602.

44. ^ Fedorov, Alexey V.; Philander, S. George (2000). "Is El Nio Changing?". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 288: 19972002. doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1997.

45. ^ Zhang, Qiong; Guan, Yue; Yang, Haijun (2008). "ENSO Amplitude Change in Observation and Coupled Models". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 25 (3): 331336. doi:10.1007/s00376-008-0361-5.

46. ^ Merryfield, William J. (2006). "Changes to ENSO under CO2 Doubling in a Multimodel Ensemble". Journal of Climate 19 (16): 40094027. doi:10.1175/JCLI3834.1. http://www.ocgy.ubc.ca/~yzq/books/paper5_IPCC_revised/Merryfield2006.pdf.

47. ^ Meehl, G. A.; Teng, H.; Branstator, G. (2006). "Future changes of El Nio in two global coupled climate models". Climate Dynamics 26: 549. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0098-0. edit

48. ^

49. ^ a b Kao, Hsun-Ying and Jin-Yi Yu (2009). "Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO". Journal of Climate 22: 615632. http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008JCLI2309.1.

50. ^ Larkin, N. K.; Harrison, D. E. (2005). "On the definition of El Nio and associated seasonal average U.S. Weather anomalies". Geophysical Research Letters 32: L13705. doi:10.1029/2005GL022738. edit

51. ^ Modoki: The Mimetic Tradition in Japan (article by Sakabe Magumi), p251- in Modern Japanese Aesthetics - A Reader, ed Michelle Marra, 1999, University of Hawaii Press

52. ^ Hye-Mi Kim, Peter J. Webster, & Judith A. Curry (2009). "Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones". Science 335: 7780. doi:10.1126/science.1174062. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/325/5936/77.

53. ^ Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kug, Jong-Seong; Dewitte, Boris; Kwon, Min-Ho; Kirtman, Ben P.; Jin, Fei-Fei (September 2009). "El Nio in a changing climate". Nature 461: 511514. doi:10.1038/nature08316.

54. ^ Phillander, S. George (2004). Our affair with El Nio: how we transformed an enchanting Peruvian current into a global climate hazard. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-11335-1.

55. ^ Carr, Matthieu; et al. (2005). "Strong El Nio events during the early Holocene: stable isotope evidence from Peruvian sea shells". The Holocene 15 (1): 4247. doi:10.1191/0959683605h1782rp.

56. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/25433.stm

57. ^ Brian Fagan (1999). Floods, Famines and Emporers: El Nio and the Fate of Civilizations. Basic Books. pp. 119138. ISBN 0-465-01120-9.

58. ^ Grove, Richard H. (1998). "Global Impact of the 178993 El Nio". Nature 393 (6683): 318319. doi:10.1038/30636.

59. ^ " Grda, C.: Famine: A Short History". Princeton University Press.

60. ^ Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hoar, Timothy J. (1996). "The 1990-1995 El Nio-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record". Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1): 5760. doi:10.1029/95GL03602. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1996/95GL03602.shtml.

61. ^ Trenberth, K. E.; et al. (2002). "Evolution of El Nio Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures". Journal of Geophysical Research 107 (D8): 4065. doi:10.1029/2000JD000298.

62. ^ Marshall, Paul; Schuttenberg, Heidi (2006). A reef managers guide to coral bleaching. Townsville, Qld.: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. ISBN 1876945400. http://coris.noaa.gov/activities/reef_managers_guide/pdfs/reef_managers_guide.pdf.

[edit] Further reading

* Caviedes, Csar N. (2001). El Nio in History: Storming Through the Ages. Gainesville: University of Florida Press. ISBN 0813020999.

* Fagan, Brian M. (1999). Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Nio and the Fate of Civilizations. New York: Basic Books. ISBN 0712664785.

* Glantz, Michael H. (2001). Currents of change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 052178672X.

* Philander, S. George (1990). El Nio, La Nia and the Southern Oscillation. San Diego: Academic Press. ISBN 0125532350.

* Trenberth, Kevin E. (1997). "The definition of El Nio" (pdf). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Scociety 78 (12): 27712777. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)0782.0.CO;2. http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=res-loc&uri=urn%3Aap%3Apdf%3Adoi%3A10.1175%2F1520-0477%281997%29078%3C2771%3ATDOENO%3E2.0.CO%3B2.

[edit] External links

Search Wikimedia Commons Wikimedia Commons has media related to: ENSO

* PO.DAAC's El Nio Animations

* National Academy of Sciences El Nio/La Nia article

* NOAA FAQ "What is ENSO?"

* Latest El Nio/La Nia Data from NASA

* Economic Costs of El Nio / La Nia and Economic Benefits from Improved Forecasting from "NOAA Socioeconomics" website initiative

* El Nio and La Nia from the 1999 International Red Cross World Disasters Report by Eric J. Lyman.

* ENSO (El Nio-Southern Oscillation)

* La Nia episodes in the Tropical Pacific

* NOAA announces 2004 El Nio

* NOAA El Nio Page

* Ocean Motion: El Nio

* SOI (Southern Oscillation Index)

* The Climate of Peru

* What is El Nio?

* What is La Nia?

* El-Nino, La-Nina, Southern Oscillation, ENSO

* Kelvin Wave Renews El Nio - NASA, Earth Observatory image of the day, 2010, March 21

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Global warming

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Global mean surface temperature difference relative to the 19611990 average

Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of temperature variations since 1979. Trends plotted since January 1982.

Mean surface temperature change for the period 2000 to 2009 relative to the average temperatures from 1951 to 1980.[1]

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 0.18 C (1.33 0.32 F) between the start and the end of the 20th century.[2][A] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century was very likely caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.[2] The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanic eruptions had a small cooling effect after 1950.[3][4] These basic conclusions have been endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science,[B] including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.[5]

Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 C (2.0 to 11.5 F) during the 21st century.[2] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies focus on the period leading up to the year 2100. However, warming is expected to continue beyond 2100 even if emissions stop, because of the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.[6][7]

An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[8] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects include changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional variations is uncertain.[9]

Political and public debate continues regarding global warming, its causes and what actions to take in response. The available options are mitigation to reduce further emissions; adaptation to reduce the damage caused by warming; and, more speculatively, geoengineering to reverse global warming. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Contents

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* 1 Temperature changes

* 2 External forcings

o 2.1 Greenhouse gases

o 2.2 Aerosols and soot

o 2.3 Solar variation

* 3 Feedback

* 4 Climate models

* 5 Attributed and expected effects

o 5.1 Environmental

o 5.2 Economic

* 6 Responses to global warming

o 6.1 Mitigation

o 6.2 Adaptation

o 6.3 Geoengineering

* 7 Debate and skepticism

* 8 See also

* 9 Notes

* 10 References

* 11 Further reading

* 12 External links

Temperature changes

Main article: Temperature record

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions, each smoothed on a decadal scale. The instrumental record and the unsmoothed annual value for 2004 are shown in black.

Warming of the climate system is happening:[10][11][12][13] evidence for this includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[14] The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 0.18 C over the period 19062005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 0.03 C per decade, versus 0.07 C 0.02 C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 C of warming per decade since 1900.[15] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and 0.22 C (0.22 and 0.4 F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the