WATER FOR LIFE AND LIVELIHOODS IN 2050:

The World Water Scenarios ProjecWilliam J. CosgroveProject ManagerWWAP World Water Scenarios ProjectSenior Research Scholar, IIASA

World Water Assessment Programme

t the 2nd World Water Forum in the Hague, a ommon Water Vision was presented. It was basedn a ground breaking stakeholder-informed cenario development process that brought ogether leading global authorities both within and xternal to the water domain to think about possibluture water worlds and develop a joint Vision for he future.

he impact was clear and immediate- the Vision ledo the development of an action plan for water anagement to contribute more broadly to

ustainable development goals.

Over ten years later, much remains to be done tomeet challenges old and new, and the 2000 World

Water Vision remains the only globally comprehensive set of water scenarios available

UN World Water Development Reports

How can scenarios help decision makers to meet these challenges?

ios are built with decision-making in mind.ios can provide a long-term view.ios can explore system uncertainty. ios enable exploration of non-quantifiable factors. ios can consider water in a holistic manner, incorporating b

ural state and the balancing, competing demands placed onios provide common frameworks to map out and highlight thconcerns of diverse stakeholders and to identify alternativeio-building also offers an excellent arena for discussion, debgotiation.

Why new scenarios?

sting global water scenarios need to incorporate additional driving forces (among mate change, globalization and security issues) and update the information on which

ution of the drivers and the logic behind them should be re-examined.

nt new policy initiatives have emerged since the last world water scenarios were devmple, Millennium Development Goals).

s are possible with other scenario processes being undertaken at the global level.

cases there are no existing water scenarios at the national and sub-national levels.

World Water Scenarios Project (2009-2012)

ed in four phases:

ew and analysis of principal drivers and development of styliios

ew of drivers by Scenario Focus Group and representatives oes

lopment of scenarios for selected transboundary and countrand for some countries and states

emination/outreach/training to strengthen the capacity of waers and professionals as well as people in other sectors at thational, transboundary and regional levels

Making Sense of Causal Links between Drivers

echnologywaterenergy

vernancecurity)

Wat

Wellbeing,povertyequity

Population size&growth (water needs/demand)

Waterstresssustainability

Ecosystems&Land Use

(incl. Agriculture)

Economy(incl. Water

Infrastructure)

Climate change

Value changes(lifestyles & consumption patternssolidarity)

CONSUMPTION & THDRAWAL

ventional World

012

3economy

technology

population

climate changeecosystemhealth

valuesn

ng

Conflict‐world

0

1

2

3economy

technology

population

climate changeecosystemhealth

values

globalcooperation

water stress

wellbeing

Techno‐world

0

1

2

3economy

technology

population

climate changeecosystemhealth

values

globalcooperation

water stress

wellbeing

Global Concious

01

23

economy

tec

cecosysheal

values

globalcooperation

water stress

wellbeing

ventional World Gone Sour

0

1

2

3economy

technology

population

climate changeecosystemhealth

values

ing

Living in the Anthropocene Age

he human population will approach ten billion within the century. We read our man-made ecosystems, including “mega-regions” with morean 100 million inhabitants, as landscapes characterized by heavy hume — degraded agricultural lands, industrial wastelands, and recreation

ndscapes — which become characteristic of Earth’s terrestrial surfacee infuse huge quantities of synthetic chemicals and persistent waste o Earth’s metabolism. Where wilderness remains, it’s often only cause exploitation is still unprofitable.

e now live in “human systems with natural ecosystems embedded thin them.” The long-held barriers between nature and culture are eaking down. It’s no longer us against ‘Nature’. Instead, it’s we who cide what nature is and what it will be”.

ul J. Crutzen & Christian Schwägerl, Yale Environment360, 24 January 201

A Vision for 2050

y Vision is that In the Anthropocene there will be significant changes and ptures with the past. In 2050 we will be living in a world with a population of 0 billion people where everyone will have access to safe water supplies. riculture will produce enough food so that no one need go hungry. Reduced

obal consumption by industry of all natural resources, including water, will company substantially higher economic activity in the emerging and veloping countries. Concern for freshwater and the environment will actically reduced waste from human activity, there will be treatment of solid d liquid wastes before their controlled release into the environment, and uatic ecosystems will be restored and developed.

ing examples such as I have cited for food and energy production, vironmental sustainability practices and urban planning and development wl achieve this Vision.

A Vision for 2050

udents in school are still taught that we are living in the Holocence, ana that began roughly 12,000 years ago at the end of the last Ice Age. Baching students that we are living in the Anthropocene, the Age of Menuld be of great help. Rather than representing yet another sign of man hubris, this name change would stress the enormity of humanitysponsibility as stewards of the Earth. It would highlight the immense wer of our intellect and our creativity, and the opportunities they offerr shaping the future.ul J. Crutzen & Christian Schwägerl, Yale Environment360, 24 January 2011

We all live in this new world!

THANK YOU

The World Water Scenarios ProjectWorld Water Assessment Programme